The French political philosopher Alexis de Tocqueville (1805-1859) said “In democracy we get the government we deserve”.
Everton was as powerful a football club as any in the land when the Premier League was formed in 1992/93 season. Notts Forest, Middlesborough, Crystal Palace, Oldham, Southampton, Leeds, Ipswich, Coventry, Sheffield Utd, Wimbledon, Sheffield Wednesday, Blackburn and QPR (13) were all in the Premiership and the current top 8 plus Aston Villa made up the balance. The Premier League was a big change which gave a new business opportunity to those progressive and clever enough to grasp it; it was also a huge threat to those clubs who were change averse, traditional and not as business minded.
It’s also worth noting the average Premier League attendance was 21,126 and the HIGHEST was 44,619 for Liverpool v Everton on 20th March 1993. Everton’s average gate 19,504, Man Utd 33,898, Arsenal 24,403 and Chelsea was 18,754 - Liverpool highest at 34,741.
The other seismic change was in 1995 with the Bosman ruling which meant that players could move to a new club at the end of their contract without their old club receiving a fee.
UK supermarkets went through similar big changes in the 1980s and perhaps there are parallels in the way Tesco and Manchester United went about things. For Somerville, Gateway and Safeway read Wimbledon, Sheffield Wednesday and Coventry. If Arsenal have adopted a Sainsbury type strategy, then it’s fair to say Everton has been the Co-op. Still around and managing to compete - but a victim of not changing and adapting early enough and not putting sound progressive business practices into place as quickly as the competition.
Since football was invented it’s been the case that the best players had more chance of winning than a team of weaker players, and since the Bosman ruling it’s been logical that those clubs able to pay the highest wages would be able to attract and afford the best players. It’s also a reality that even the most loyal, home-grown youngster will be poached by a bigger club as soon as he really starts to perform and that the smaller club is powerless to resist. It’s always been so – as Dixie Dean described in his memoirs about leaving Tranmere.
Statistics show that in the first ten years of competing in this new commercial world of the Premiership, Everton finished (13, 17, 15, 6, 15, 17, 14, 13, 16, 15) an average 14th. We were nearly relegated twice but we did win the FA Cup. Throughout this period United, Liverpool and Arsenal enjoyed a significant salary advantage over the rest and were well placed to benefit financially from the Champions League.
The last 10 years of the Premier League
Since 2003 we have seen the emergence of what I call the Rich 4 clubs: Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United. Apart from Blackburn (1994–95) and Manchester City in 2011–12, only three clubs have won the Premier League title – Manchester United (12 titles), Arsenal and Chelsea (3 each). United haven’t been outside the top 3 since the formation of the Premier League.
Since the summer of 02, the top 4 finishers in the PL have qualified for the Champions League. In the summer of 03, Chelsea was bought by billionaire Abramovich, and so started the concept of a Rich 4:
- The Rich 4 won all but one of the top four places between 2003–04 and 2008–09. The only exception was Liverpool's 5th place behind Everton in 2004–05, though they still got into the Champions League for 2005–06 by winning it in 2004–05 (while Everton, unlike any of the Big 4 in this period, failed to make the lucrative group stage of the Champions League, after being knocked out in the final qualifying round).
- The Rich 4 went on to fill all 24 spots available to them in the lucrative group stage of the ensuing 2004–05 to 2009–10 (when prize money quadrupled) Champions League seasons (which no English team outside the Big 4 reached in those seasons)
- The Rich 4 went on to fill 22 of the 24 Champions League Last 16 (Knockout Stage) spots available to them in those seasons (the exceptions being Manchester United in 2005–06 and Liverpool in 2009–10).
The effect on wages
By season 2010-11 the gap between the top 5 wage bills and the rest has become huge. Everton’s budget has been less than half that of Chelsea, City, United, Arsenal and Liverpool and £30m less than Spurs.
Predicted table based on wages
|2010-11||Team||Turnover (£>m)||Wage bill (>£m)||Wages %||ACTUAL Pos.|
|45-70m||12||West Ham United||81||56||69.10%||20|
|< £40m||18||Wolverhampton Wanderers||64||38||59.40%||17|
|19||West Bromwich Albion||59||37||62.70%||11|
It’s no surprise that every year for the last 10 years, at least 5 of the biggest 6 wages bills have occupied the top 6 places in the league and that the winners have always been in the top 3 wage bills.
For the last 10 years Everton have been in the £45-70m bracket with Villa, Sunderland, Fulham, West Ham, Newcastle, Blackburn and Stoke and this group of clubs are a LONG WAY behind the top 6.
The analysis would suggest that that by looking at last year’s published accounts it’s possible to predict 5 of the top 6 places and the winners always come from the top 3:
Predicted table based on wages
|2011-12||Team||Turnover (£m)||Wage bill (£m)||Wages %||Actual Pos.||under/over|
|17||West Bromwich Albion||67||50||74.60%||10||7|
For this season, Chelsea, Liverpool, Villa and Sunderland significantly under-performed and once again Everton over-performed.
Assessing Everton’s performance over the last 10 years
Quite simply, Everton have won their league for 8 of the last 10 years acknowledging the huge gap in resources between the top 4 (now 5 gate-crashed by City and the Sheikh) and the rest. Spurs enjoy a 50% advantage in resources and complete the top 6.
What the pure wages analysis also misses out is the analysis of player trading, as illustrated in this analysis of January spend in the last 10 years:
Net Spend on players in the January Transfer Window:
|Seasons||Club||January spend (£m)||Avg Jan spend per PL season||Ave Pos|
Everton have spent less on players than their entire mid-tier competitors throughout this period.
Over the last 10 years, never in the history of top flight football has Everton been so disadvantaged in terms of resources against its competitors (top 6).
Never in the club’s history has our transfer budget been so low against our competitors (all 19 in the league!)
Never has the gap been growing as fast as it has in the last ten years.
Never in my lifetime has an Everton manager achieved so much with so little and received such lack of appreciation by so many of the supporters.
Everton FC 1992-93 – a Co-op business model
Perhaps Bill Kenwright has been influenced and listened to the part of the fan base that share his ‘passionate’ beliefs and values. He believes Everton should be finishing in the top 4 regularly and beating the top 4 away from home when we play them. He believes in giving the manager every available penny to spend and keeping people happy if he can. If we ‘believe’ badly enough then we are passionate. If we are passionate enough we can win the league. If we don’t change the business model, if we sell and lease back and spend every available penny on the right players then we can still recapture the glory of 1995?
There are undoubtedly still many fans who don’t accept the argument that wage bill and resources dictates results and truly believe that Everton underperform on the pitch.
When all said and done, Everton is a traditional club – the people’s club – my club… and perhaps the majority shareholder (our Chairman) personifies the fan base. Passionate, optimistic, emotional and because of love – irrational.
Today the news on SAF’s retirement has hit and because I respect the professional way in which Manchester United is run, then I am sure that there is a succession plan in place and that logic and careful planning will prevail.
It’s a real contradiction (because Moyes has saved Kenwright’s bacon for the last 10 years) but I hope it is Moyes because I appreciate everything he’s done for Everton during these ten years and for me he is the second best manager in the league. The snipe that he hasn’t won ‘anything’ isn’t true; he’s won matches and done better than anyone has any right to expect given the way the club has stagnated for the last twenty years.
Football is about winning matches and supporting your team. Thank goodness that the fans of another 92 clubs think this way because only 3 teams can win the league in its current format.
Anyway, like Bill, I now have to hope, pray and cross fingers that we stumble upon another fabulous manager and that we don’t end up with an average one – because average will see us back to our par performance of the nineties and the on-pitch performance that our off-pitch performance deserves.
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019 Posted 08/05/2013 at 19:19:01
One thing that I have remember of the pre-Moyes era is that in the Premier League we never ever won more than 2 in a row
038 Posted 08/05/2013 at 19:25:29
045 Posted 08/05/2013 at 19:31:37
Can I assume what you are saying is that it's not just a great replacement manager that Everton will be needing soon, but a business superstar passionate about the sport industry with a panchant for football; the Everton brand; and a vision to take one of the greatest sporting institutions forward in the modern era?
074 Posted 08/05/2013 at 19:48:18
The MOB are getting their wish. I won't take any pleasure in seeing them proved wrong. Moyes leaving is a disaster for Everton, a disaster.
103 Posted 08/05/2013 at 20:01:07
Brian - 074 - Moyes leaving is not and won't be a disaster, but Moyes leaving and Kenwright failing to support whoever the new Manager is may well be. Fact is, Moyes has papered over Kenwright's cracks for the past 11 years.
The chickens are coming home to roost and Blue Bill should be shitting blue bricks - he'll be very lucky to find another manager to keep us in the Premier League with the same level of support he gave Moyes!
115 Posted 08/05/2013 at 19:57:37
141 Posted 08/05/2013 at 20:19:53
176 Posted 08/05/2013 at 20:17:24
In the first ten years of the Premiership (how I hate that word), we finished 13, 17, 15, 6, 15, 17, 14, 13, 16, 15.
Under 11 years with David Moyes we have finished 7, 17, 4, 11, 6, 5, 5, 8, 7, 7 and very likely 6 this year.
Spot the difference?
I know he can appear to be cautious - but who wouldn't to ensure consistency.
And I know he definitely has his favourites - but which manager doesn't?
But if anyone thinks ANY manager could have done better under our circumstances - and especially when considering Joe's excellent analysis above - they need to wake up and take stock of what the game has become today.
David Moyes has, without question, made us consistently THE best of the rest outside the moneyed clubs.
In doing so, he has had to sell Rooney and not had the luxury of being allowed, or able, to attract some of the 'big names' his immediate predecessors had.
If any of you see fit to deny that only United, City and Chelsea are capable of winning the league now, then you will get what you deserve if Moyes leaves.
And unfortunately, people like me will only be able to say: "I told you so."
Yes, we are still a 'big' club. Yes we have great expectations. Yes we have a history and heritage that an increasing number of rival supporters are not aware of. And thankfully we are still hanging on to the coat tails of the elite - thanks to David Moyes.
Sadly though, we have been been in a slow decline for years and today's developments have made me acutely aware that it is a lack of leadership, innovation and financial muscle from above that has seen Everton become a club in serious danger of being marginalised for decades more, with a ground that is already a laughing stock.
The only reason those cracks continue to be papered over is David Moyes and it is laughable that many castigate him on here for his 'lack of achievement'. What kind of football world do those detractors live in?
The worst day of my life as an Evertonian was when I picked up a paper in W H Smith in Sale to read that Harry Catterick had sold Alan Ball.
I was a teenager then and was quite literally heartbroken for months.
I'm 58 now and if David Moyes leaves, his departure will be a very close second.
224 Posted 08/05/2013 at 20:36:43
I would however like to pick up on a comment from responses above, that the MOB have got their wish. Clearly nonsense and I hope no one else goes down that road. The only person who has got their wish is DM. The rest of us are left with a Club at a crossroads. One road leads (as this article suggests) to mediocrity at best if no money is forthcoming. However another road leads us on to continued top ten finishes and the possibilty of actually winning a cup.
In either case we will get not the manager we deserve. Instead we will get the manager that Bill Kenwright gives us. From the above stats, the implication seems to be that there is no other manager out there who can keep us competing. Clearly not so surely ? It's a question of getting the right one and backing them. That's Kenwright's job. He's the Leader and always has been; not Moyes. Trouble is he doesn't seem to do a lot of leading and that is more likely to take us down the wrong road than any manager who comes in. I will watch how this plays out with apprehension mainly based on my distrust in BK's ability to get this right. Hope I'm wrong.
227 Posted 08/05/2013 at 21:03:42
"Best of mid-tier" is an inadequate epitaph. Based on points-per-pound, Moyes has been the best manager in the Premier League. My only hope is, what is the personal risk for him in taking on the challenge at Old Trafford? The best he could realistically achieve is to match SAF's record. Anything less would be seen as failure by every pundit.
There is one thing that would be a greater disaster than losing Moyes would be our getting Rooney back as well. No thanks! Let him trundle off to Europe. Ironically, that would be a better bet for Moyes if he has to leave Goodison.
SOM – Save Our Moyes!
228 Posted 08/05/2013 at 21:19:57
You're saying the MOB didn't wish Moyes gone?
253 Posted 08/05/2013 at 21:31:44
At 60 years of age I have seen great Everton teams and truly woeful one's. Thanks to David Moyes and his steady leadership the last eleven years has seen mainly above average one's.
Thanks David and good luck in beating all the teams I dislike in your new job.
Please Bill choose very carefully and if Mr Rathbone, Edwards or Marsh give you advise please ignore it.
257 Posted 08/05/2013 at 21:33:49
277 Posted 08/05/2013 at 21:46:17
Could he do better in terms of decision making, probably. But then again we don't have to make the gut wrenching decisions he has to.
I am glad he is working 24/7 to keep us out of the wrong hands.
296 Posted 08/05/2013 at 21:54:19
New manager does crap
Fans finally call for BK to leave.
We get an arab with loads of dosh.
We get a manager such as Guadioli or That German fella
We win the premier league and beat United under Moyes whom finish a lowly 5th
So sometimes you have to go back to go forward.
Do you guys really think Moyes can continue this for ever with no investment.
308 Posted 08/05/2013 at 22:02:30
318 Posted 08/05/2013 at 22:04:24
333 Posted 08/05/2013 at 22:07:39
I don't believe Kenwright spends his entire day touting Everton around the world to sell to the highest bidder.
But I don't actually believe he spends 24/7 trying to shaft us either.
I bet he rues the day he signed on the dotted line, just like Steve Morgan at The Wolves (and to think many of us panicked when we thought Morgan was going to buy Liverpool for 60 million a few years ago)
336 Posted 08/05/2013 at 22:04:14
DM has been lied to consistently and used as a buffer for the Board too long for any man of honesty to continue to stomach. The debacle over Fer and Ofoe must have been the straws that broke the man's heart. The January window was an absolute DISGRACE, — not only did we do no business we actually loaned OUT four players weakening our first team squad.
DM and his tiny squad deserve all the plaudits and I just hope we don't lose our best players in the aftermath because this miserly, miserable board would only give any new manager a fraction of any money that comes the club's way from transfers.
The FANS are the ONLY investors in our once mighty club... the board just sit on their shares and invest nothing. The likes of Dave Whelan at Wigan puts our board to shame. I am so angry, I must end here as it's winding me up.
375 Posted 08/05/2013 at 22:11:00
The undisputable issue is nothing at this club would change till Moyes moved to one of the numerous places he "would like to manage".
The circumstances remain the same selling to buy IS the deal - the despairing defeatism that nobody can replicate nay improve on Moyes is the mans real legacy.
I for one can't wait even if it goes tits up we couldn't go on excusing everything from the pies to the cup debacles year in year out.
lift your heads up be Evertonians for once in your life god forbid the new fella might improve things through personality and ability rather than pound notes - we might even win something like Swansea !! what a disaster.
386 Posted 08/05/2013 at 22:27:53
One thing is certain that the new boss (as it looks like Moyes is gone) will have to replace not only Baines & Fellani but also an ageing squad, and the 30-40 million will have to be spent well. Turbulant times ahead for the club; Joe's piece highlighted that over half of the founders of the premier leagues are in the lower leagues. Membership to this exclusive club isn't a gimme
427 Posted 08/05/2013 at 22:54:53
435 Posted 08/05/2013 at 22:58:00
Shit! You'd settle for tits up!
436 Posted 08/05/2013 at 22:50:46
I have faith that Kenwright can find the right manager from a host of likely applicants.
447 Posted 08/05/2013 at 23:01:39
448 Posted 08/05/2013 at 23:02:52
465 Posted 08/05/2013 at 23:08:42
473 Posted 08/05/2013 at 23:18:56
513 Posted 08/05/2013 at 23:40:01
"I for one can't wait EVEN if it goes tits up" As long as Moyes goes I don't give a fuck what happens next?
524 Posted 08/05/2013 at 23:45:50
"I don't care how it goes after Moyes leaves, good or bad I want him gone"????
Thank god people like you don't get to run the club.
527 Posted 08/05/2013 at 23:47:52
Be careful because omiting a full stop after the quote Brent might read it as YOU don't give a fuck as long as Moyes goes!
Heaven forefend people mess about with posts to suit themselves ... eh Brendan.
529 Posted 08/05/2013 at 23:53:28
533 Posted 08/05/2013 at 23:54:32
How about you defend your nonsense instead of throwing out insults.
537 Posted 08/05/2013 at 23:55:57
538 Posted 08/05/2013 at 23:55:41
lift your heads up be Evertonians for once in your life god forbid the new fella might improve things through personality and ability rather than pound notes - we might even win something like Swansea !! what a disaster."
Translation: I want a change, even it's not necessarily for the better i.e. it goes "tits up".
540 Posted 08/05/2013 at 23:57:18
It's your instance that change is always a good thing that baffles me.
If Moyes leave and we get McKay, Hughes, Martinez, O'Neill or so on. We're fucked. We are back to fighting relegation. If we get Laudrup, we may stay up where we are.
Change at the board level has nothing, zero, zip to do with Moyes staying or going.
543 Posted 08/05/2013 at 23:55:42
Where exactly did I misquote you?
545 Posted 09/05/2013 at 00:02:39
Brendan what are you waffling about?
553 Posted 09/05/2013 at 00:02:08
569 Posted 09/05/2013 at 00:34:14
I Was there when we lost Semi-Final after Semi-Final , how we nearly won the league with Bingham in 1975 with the most boring football you could witness and then crashed down to earth with a bang as we lost to Carlisle, M'boro and Luton, then lost to second- division Fulham in the FA Cup at Goodison. Gordon Lee arrived and he too was a dour defensive minded manager but he had some exciting players and he was the nearly man, again I watched our glorious failures as the Dark Side kept on parading a variety of trophies around the city with thousands of adoring fans lining the streets to worship them. But then a man who knew what Everton were and what Evertonians wanted arrived and it took him a while but he managed to restore the pride into the blue half of Merseyside and we had a few seasons in the sun. My long wait was worth it and I enjoyed it all the more because it hadn't just happened it had been earned. Now I don't expect us to replicate what we did in those days, I only hope that we win more than we lose and play in an attractive manner.
I wonder if you would feel the same about the Moyes' era if it had been the dark side wining the trophies during his tenure rather than the team from OT.
The 90s and early 2000s were a stain on the name of Everton FC and we may never recover from the events that took place in those years, but we have to live in hope otherwise what is the point of it all?
582 Posted 09/05/2013 at 00:30:40
David Booth (176), I coud'nt agree with you more. I am older than you, you young pup, I'm 60 and I think it really is a worrying time for us.
OK, Moyes has'nt won anything for us, but look at our end of season finishes. Do we want to emulate Pulis, Lambert (who might , I admit, do ok next season), de Canio or O'Neill?
We need investment, we need innovation, we need imagination, we need errr, well, I need Mel B. Phwoaarrr!!!
584 Posted 09/05/2013 at 01:41:17
You're happy even if goes tits up. What else could that mean? Well?
589 Posted 09/05/2013 at 01:02:29
For me, and I'm going to assume a lot of fellow MOBsters, the order in which this has happened has been very unexpected, and, to be honest, the convenience of it all stinks of inside work, when Everton could have at least gotten some compensation had he signed a contract or just admitted he was leaving WHEN HE SAID HE WOULD.
It's no secret Moyes never likes players running down their contract, so why is it okay for him?
644 Posted 09/05/2013 at 06:00:16
Makes me worry even more about what's to come. Good luck to our next manager, especially working with our board. COYB
731 Posted 09/05/2013 at 08:30:52
826 Posted 09/05/2013 at 10:07:05
834 Posted 09/05/2013 at 10:19:57
Perhaps we misunderstood what you meant. It seems you've missed a full-stop or similar pause out of that sentence?? Where do you want it?
860 Posted 09/05/2013 at 10:42:41
864 Posted 09/05/2013 at 11:01:07
868 Posted 09/05/2013 at 11:03:01
There's a lot to be said for keeping things simple but really pay our debts in two years.
There are many reasons this wont happen, the main one being unless we generate cash from transfer fees our current operating model has us running at a loss. So the extra revenue may help but don't be lulled into the notion that the enhanced TV deal leaves us in any financial position other than up shit creek.
625 Posted 09/05/2013 at 19:35:08
Just asking - would you be the bloke who did the presentation on EFC's finances at the Blue House about, oh, ten years ago? (I took the minutes that night and I dimly remember Tom Cannon being there.)
896 Posted 09/05/2013 at 23:28:25
Can't believe it was 10 years ago:-)
Yes I remember it well - though the only clear memory of Tom Cannon was him proposing the motion at the EGM on the other memorable night.
Since posting it's all now confirmed and DM has gone but our leader remains - be interesting to see who he appoints. One thing is for sure, the appointment won't be made as a formal recommendation to a board (united have Joel Glazer (Co-chairman), Avram Glazer (Co-chairman), Bryan Glazer, Kevin Glazer, Edward Glazer, Darcie Glazer, David Gill (Chief Executive), Edward Woodward (Executive Vice Chairman), Richard Arnold (Commercial Director). Robert Leitão, John Hooks and Manu Sawhney are all non-executives Directors.) - and 12 business minded individuals won't be having an input!
Good luck Bill - let's hope his gut feel works again.
995 Posted 10/05/2013 at 01:50:13
"Never in my lifetime has an Everton manager achieved so much with so little and received such lack of appreciation by so many of the supporters."
You see he hasn't actually achieved anything. All he's done is mask the failure of the board to invest in the infrastructure of the club so that the gap between us and the 'bigger' clubs can shrink.
He's done it with a style of play that at times was dour. Sometimes it was atrocious.
Some games were an absolute disgrace.
We're in an entertainment business. And while what he done was very effective it was hardly pleasant on the eye.
He failed to get his team to perform for 90 minutes. It was generally one half good one bad. The same with the season as a whole.
His attitude towards the other lot left a lot to be desired. He really needed a touch of Joe Royle about him where the derby was concerned. Even when they were in the worst form of their lives, his team still managed to look terrified of them.
I could keep going but I won't. The top and bottom of it is the only thing he achieved was to keep the heat off the real problem at our club.
The league he 'won' doesn't exist.
033 Posted 10/05/2013 at 06:27:14
Us fans have said for 2 years Moyes should be forced to sign in order that we don't lose another asset. Low and behold, we lose another asset.
These losses are an indication that the Board are failing in their duties to the company I.e. Everton FC and should be fired.
The Board's losses consist of the following:
1. The loss of Moyes (circa £3 million);
2. Dan Gosling to Newcastle (circa £2 million);
3. The Kirkby project (£2 million?);
4. The Kings Dock fiasco (£1 million plus);
5. The failed Park End redevelopment (legal expenses etc likely to be near 1 million).
The list goes on. That's nearly £10 million. A lot to lose. If it were a national company there would be an outcry but because its 'only' Everton the media don't investigate and shareholders put up.
I was unsure where Moyes was taking us after watching the Wigan game and many draws and failures to win at Liverpool, Mand Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal. However, I'm worried at what the Board will now do as they continually fail on so many counts.
It's about time we as fans stopped fighting amongst ourselves and stood up as one group to rid OUR club of the rubbish that we call a board of directors.
295 Posted 10/05/2013 at 12:42:35
I disagree with much in your post, but this quote sticks out:
"He failed to get his team to perform for 90 minutes. It was generally one half good one bad. "
Everton have never been a 90-minute team; it pre-dates Moyes by decades. My late father and I used to have the same conversation: good first half or good second half, rarely both.
878 Posted 13/05/2013 at 17:29:16
Good article and well researched, it's hard to find fault with your statistical representation of the Moyes era. Indeed, when I heard he's off to try to sit on SAF's very large thrown, I posted 'Thanks for the first 6 years, but not much after that'.
He will produce very consistant sides at Manu and the state Chelski/ManC and Arse are in he should win a prem or two, but I believe he will be found wanting when he has to face Bayern, Real etc. He's simply not a killer/winner, he will return to type under pressure.
Finally: 'nis satis, nisi optimum', I read as: let's do our best and go for the win and not let's go for the draw and hope we get the win.
882 Posted 13/05/2013 at 17:43:27
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