Howay The Lads...?

Jay Wood 19/11/2015 48comments  |  Jump to last
Howay The Lads...?

On the Moyes Sacked thread Darren Hind and Brian Denton had a difference of opinion on the relative performances of Moyes and Martinez away from home, particularly against the ‘top four.’ It intrigued me enough to do some research into the same. It makes interesting, but not necessarily, happy reading.

I looked at the 11 full seasons under Moyes and the two full seasons under Martinez. I focused on final finishing position and how many games we won away and looked at how many wins were against the higher ranked sides.

The following data lists the season, final position, number of away games won, and a comment on the ‘distribution’ of the away wins. For Moyes the record reads:

Season Position Away wins Observation
2002-03 7 6 1 win in top 14 Blackburn 6th, other 5 away wins to bottom 6
2003-04 17 1 1 win Portsmouth 13th
2004-05 4 6 3 wins top 15 Man City 8th, Villa 10th, Birmingham 15th
2005-06 11 6 3 wins top 16 Blackburn 6th, Bolton 8th, M'boro 14th
2006-07 6 4 2 wins top 16 Spurs 5th, Reading 8th
2007-08 5 8 0 wins top 8
2008-09 5 9 0 wins top 6
2009-10 8 5 2 wins top 15, Man City 5th, Blackburn 10th
2010-11 7 4 2 wins top 16, Man City 3rd (only top 4 away win in 11 seasons under Moyes), Newcastle 12th
2011-12 7 5 3 wins top 17,  Fulham 9th, WBA 10th, Swansea 11th
2012-13 6 4 2 wins top 14, Swansea 9th WHU 10th

Martinez’s record


2013-14 5 8 2 wins top 11, Man Utd 7th, Newcastle 10th
2014-15 11 5 1 win top 10, Palace 10th

To first recap Darren’s and Brian’s respective positions: Darren is of the opinion that Martinez’s record against top 4 sides away from home “is even more embarrassing” than Moyes’.

He discounts Martinez’s win at Old Trafford as the home side were “a very very ordinary Man Utd at a time when seemingly everyone was winning there. They were nowhere near top four.”

Darren considers “the facts, stats and results say that Martinez's record is worse than Moyes,” adding he has achieved just one single away win in his two full seasons against the top NINE clubs. Darren claims Martinez has not beaten a top 4 side away from home, but that Moyes did it on more than one occasion.

Brian lists his personal Sky 4 as Man Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool, excluding Man City. As such, he considers Martinez HAS won away at a top 4 side.

Darren counters by questioning how Brian can omit Man City from his Top 4 list, and Brian reasonable questions how can Darren, by the same logic, discount Man Utd from the Top 4.

Studying the data against Darren’s and Brian’s opinions, I have to question Darren’s conclusions and some of his claims which are patently wrong.

For me, the year-on-year data is damning: Everton do not solely have a problem winning away at the top four, they have a problem winning away to three-quarters of the league, regardless of who the manager is.

In 13 seasons we have achieved just one away victory to a side that finished top 4 – under Moyes at Man City who finished 3rd in 2010-11, so Moyes did NOT (as Darren claims) win away to a top 4 side “on more than one occasion.”

The further question in this analysis is what does constitute a top four team? Is it only those teams that finish in the top 4 in a given season? Or do we acknowledge that, in the PL era, there is a hierarchy, an historical top 4 clubs that is the yardstick to measure performances against?

If the former, Brian has to acknowledge Moyes did beat a top 4 side away with the win at Man City in 2010-11. If the latter, Darren cannot dismiss Martinez’s victory at Old Trafford in 2013-14.

Personally, I think both positions are permissible. Clearly Man City were a top 4 side when Everton won there under Moyes. And yes, while Darren has a point that Man Utd only finished 7th when Martinez won there, to insist as he does on excluding United as a top 4 side whilst simultaneously insisting City should be regarded as an (historical) top 4 side is contradictory.

Why? Because, in the 23 seasons of Premier League football, United have failed only once to finish top 4 – the season we won at Old Trafford. Even with that 7th placed finish, their average finishing position in 23 years is... 1.87. To me, that is a mind-boggling stat, that on average they are champions or runners-up.

To compare, Man Utd’s record of 22 top 4 finishes in 23 PL seasons, they are followed for consistency for top 4 finishes by Arsenal (20), Chelsea (14) and Liverpool (13). Lagging way behind are Man City with 5. All of City’s top 4 finishes have been in the last five seasons, since they became a moneyed club. The ONLY other teams to have made to top 4 in 23 seasons of Premier League football are the following (with possibly some surprises…):

Newcastle (5), Blackburn and Leeds (3), Spurs and Aston Villa (2), with Everton bracketed with Norwich and Forest as the only other clubs with a single top 4 finish.

A final snippet of data to take from this exercise is that, in the 23 seasons of Premier League football, Everton’s average finishing position is 10.43. Taking that number as a baseline, it can be reasonably said Moyes had a single ‘over-par’ season when finishing 17th in 2003-04 and nine comfortable under-par seasons. He and Martinez each have a ‘par’ season by finishing 11th (seasons 2005-06 and 2014-15), whilst Martinez had an under-par season first time around.

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Patrick Murphy
2 Posted 19/11/2015 at 17:34:16
The old adage that you reap what you sow is true of Everton FC, as it has failed to invest in the team unless it has sold a star player which has resulted in Everton being steady-eddies rather than trail-blazers.

Dreaming about Champions League is one thing berating the manager for failing to achieve it is quite another. Perhaps, we might keep our young stars for a good while and Roberto can build a team to be proud of, given the financial figures released this week, I wouldn’t gamble too much money on that happening. It would appear that our view of the club and its performance, doesn’t quite match the facts as Jay has so diligently pointed out.

With all of that in mind, Roberto’s and Everton’s best chance of lifting a trophy lies in the Capital One Cup as any real chance of getting a European berth via the Premier League would seem to be beyond the club.

Ray Roche
3 Posted 19/11/2015 at 17:45:30
Interesting Jay, I was surprised at Newcastle finishing 4th on five occasions, though. Maybe they ARE a big club after all....
Jay Wood
4 Posted 19/11/2015 at 18:59:34
The barcodes top 4 record surprised me too Ray.

And when you look closely at Everton's away wins, the really standout wins against quality sides are distinctly lacking. It's a phenomena more than a decade long...

Paul Tran
5 Posted 19/11/2015 at 19:14:43
Thanks Jay. Nice to see some interesting stats that aren't based on 'proving' that Martinez is great/awful.

Arguing about which teams constitute the top four is a bit of a redundant argument for me. The real issue for me is the lack of authority and genuine bite in our team. Nothing much has changed from the last manager, except the disappointment that this guy hasn't done anything better......yet.

Darren Hind
6 Posted 19/11/2015 at 19:25:02
Couple of things Jay

The top four as recognised by Brian, have not actually finished top four for 6/7 seasons

It may be that the top six fluctuates so it may be worth looking at the away results at grounds of teams that actually finished in the top six. Using your figures, Moyes did it 6 times. Martinez still hasn't managed it.

I think it defies belief that we have people who claim that by beating a team who finished 7th, we beat a top four team, but by beating a team that finished 3rd . . we didnt.

Look, Moyes's record was appalling, but I'm sick of Martinez's disciples claiming that its now so much better because we don't take a "knife to a gunfight" any more. It isn't, we now score and attack even less than we did under Moyes.

If we are to seriously challenge for a top four place Martinez has to drop this cowardly approach

Jim Lloyd
7 Posted 19/11/2015 at 19:38:11
I think our best chance of "success" is if, as Patrick says, the manager can build up a squad of top class young players. He hasn't done too badly up to now and any success is dependant on if we can keep the young players we already have and add to them.

I don't see us yet as a top four side, nor are we "best of the rest" yet either. I don't think we're that far away from regularly challenging for a top six spot but I just hope we concentrate on winning either of the cups because then we might find it easier to keep our best players.

As far I'm concerned, arguing about what our last manager did or didn't achieve is pointless. He decided to leave and he went.

Our manager now is trying to build up a squad of young players and he has given the opportunity for Stonesy, Ross, Tyas and Brendan and Besic, I think will soon be back in the team. Tom Cleverley looks to be a decent acquisition, as does Ramero.

Rom and Gerry are starting to look superb young players and I think there's a good chance that other young players will be given their chance in the near future.

So, to me, this season I want to see us develop our football and if we can get top a final, that'll be excellent.

Denis Richardson
8 Posted 19/11/2015 at 20:01:50
Re the league average placings....call me old fashioned but English football didn't start in 1992.......11th should not be the Everton benchmark.
Paul Commons
9 Posted 19/11/2015 at 20:01:58
A great piece of work Jay, indicating, as it does, that true Top 4 status in Premier history is actually shared by FIVE clubs namely Man U, Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and Man C. Perhaps they would be better described as the ECL Regulars Group.

London journos are beginning to suggest that Spurs will challenge them this season and, just as TWers do, discount Leicester as a temporary irritant.

But, for all that, with our record against that group, only the most one-eyed of Everton followers would claim that Everton has any right to be seen as a top performing club whoever is the manager. But that doesn't mean we should EXPECT to come off best every time we play the Sky darlings. A win in a derby game would bring new hope that times were changing !

One thing is for certain - nothing will be achieved by this ever-lasting argument over the merits and defects of the M Men. Heck, It's not as though Moyes was sacked to allow the appointment of Martinez, is it ? Both are 6/10 managers at best - and some will say I am being generous !

The present genius in charge is pinning his faith on the next 12 games - lets beat the Villa first and worry about the Big 4/5 when we come to them.

Paul Commons
10 Posted 19/11/2015 at 20:06:23
''expect SECOND best'' -sorry !
Patrick Murphy
11 Posted 19/11/2015 at 20:14:54
Denis (8) I believe that Everton FC has during it's existence occupied 11th place more times than not and it is probably not far from being the club's average placing in the history of the game, although in the early years there were only 12 clubs so that would help to improve things.

According to the link below Everton lie third in the all time table no need to ask which club is top. Place 3rd Everton Average placing 9.71 number of seasons in top-flight 115

Average League Placings

Eddie Dunn
12 Posted 19/11/2015 at 20:19:53
There really shouldn’t be any difference in playing at home or away. It is 11 v 11 and, if a team is coached accordingly, there should be no fear in going anywhere to get a result.

There have been some great FA Cup shocks over the years, and great upsets in the league too. If you drill it into your players that they can go anywhere and win, and get them to believe it, then you have a chance.

I would like my team to go out and upset the favourites, damn the pundits, and piss on the bookies. Upset the applecart, and the Sky (money) is the limit.

Colin Gee
13 Posted 19/11/2015 at 20:21:32
I remember when we were one of the ’Big Five’

Us, the RS, Man Utd, Arsenal and Spurs. Those that think Sky invented football in 1992 will notice two teams missing....

As for the Sky 4 that is often quoted, that was Chelsea, Arsenal, Man Utd and the RS. I recall the season we finished fourth that it suddenly became the Sky 3....

It’s only since Man City took the Oil Money that they have figured in the Big Five or the Sky 4. I remember not so long ago that they were in the old Third Division! And their local derby was Stockport County!

Whichever way you look at it, Everton’s away record against the original Sky 4 is awful if you include the Moyes 0 wins in 44 and Martinez’s 1 win in 5, that’s 1 win in 49.... Does any other team have such a poor record as Everton away against them?

The stats speak for themselves, last away win at Anfield was 27th September 1999, our last away at Arsenal was at Highbury! Under Joe Royle on 20th January 1996. Our record at Chelsea is even worse, again Joe Royle being the last Everton Manager to win there on 26th January 1994. We all know when our last win at Old Trafford was!
Thanks to the Everton Results website for giving me such heartache when looking up when those last away victories were.

Jay Wood
14 Posted 19/11/2015 at 20:24:27
Denis @ 8

Sorry to break this to you, Denis, but historically, over the 116 years Everton has played league football, our medium finishing position is... 9.72.

Not a whole heap of beans of difference to the Premier League era average finishing position of 10.43, is it...?

Jay Wood
15 Posted 19/11/2015 at 20:27:02
Eek! Wot Patrick said!

PM's post appeared after I posted my response to Denis...

Mike Allison
16 Posted 19/11/2015 at 20:30:59
Now I love a look at some statistics from time to time, but I'm afraid this whole debate seems to lack meaning and context.

What do we want? What should we expect? Jay's observation column is a prime problem in the use of statistics, sometimes we're talking 'top 11', sometimes 'top 9' sometimes 'top 15'. What does any of this mean?

I'm afraid we can only judge our record by comparing it to that of another team, and we haven't done that here. Otherwise, the screamingly obvious point presents itself that of course we don't win away to the top teams, that's why they're the top teams. The only thing that matters is where we finish over the 38 games. If we won every away game against the top four, but couldn't beat the bottom four at home, what would it matter?

Would we rather have the odd big result in an inconsistent season, or would we rather pick up points consistently? I just want the most points we can get, and most of them will be picked up against teams in the bottom half of the table, that's why they're in the bottom half of the table. The rest of the debate seems to be based around some fragile-egoed inferiority complex.

Patrick Murphy
17 Posted 19/11/2015 at 20:47:03
Mike (#16),

The average league placings table compares Everton FC to every other team that has played in the top division but, as you say, it doesn’t tell us everything about the game or what our expectations should be.

The big money that has arrived in the last five years or so has changed the game beyond recognition and the chances of Everton ever breaking into that group are diminished with each passing season.

Fortunately I have seen Everton win the League, The FA Cup and a European trophy and no amount of statistics will enhance or detract from that experience, but the odds are against any of us seeing it happen in the near future. However, there is no real reason that we can’t win more than the occasional match against the richer clubs, as West Ham have shown this season.


Jay Wood
18 Posted 19/11/2015 at 21:09:58
Darren @ 6

I hope you don’t think I was having a pop at you and your earlier exchange with Brian.

Your exchange intrigued me enough to do some digging and I hope I reported the findings in a neutral tone, even though, based on the data I do, as a result, challenge 1 or 2 claims by yourself and Brian.

Just to respond to your post in this thread. Yes, the top 4-6 fluctuates, but the PL era data clearly shows United and the Arsenal as almost ever-presents in the top four, with Chelsea and Liverpool averaging a little better than a top 4 finish every 2nd season.

In Chelsea’s case, that was since Abramovich arrived with his roubles, whilst Liverpool have largely been usurped by Man City since THEY became a moneyed club, with their five top 4 seasons coming in the last five seasons.

The biggest surprise to me was the number of times Newcastle made top 4.

And to correct you again, Moyes beat teams who finished in the top six only FIVE times, not six as you say.

As I think the data shows and my comments highlight, historically it’s not just the top 4 ... 6 ... 8 or 10 teams we have trouble winning away to. Look closely at our away wins over the past 13 seasons and there are very, very few real eye-catching wins to ANY side of genuine quality.

Even in Moyes’s most successful away campaigns (2007-08 and 2008-09) when we won 8 and 9 games away respectively, in the former season we didn’t beat a top EIGHT side away, and in the latter season we failed to beat a team from the top SIX on their ground.

For me, it highlights how dependent we our on ’Fortress Goodison’ for the bulk of our points. If that fails – as it did under Moyes on occassion and with Roberto last season – our mediocre or middling away form sees us inevitably slide down the table.

It is noteworthy that early this season there was a striking imbalance across the league with the aggregate number of games being won away from home being almost double that of home wins. There is now a more equitable distribution of total wins at home (44) than away (43), but it is still an uncommonly high ratio of away wins, which suggests teams are getting better at winning on their opponents' grounds than in the past.

Everton need to learn that art and improve in that area, regardless of who the manager is.

Jay Wood
19 Posted 19/11/2015 at 21:22:38
Mike @ 16 ... to give you some context.

The original exchange that prompted my research talked of away wins to both the top four and extended that to the top half of the table.

Having gathered the data, I made a simple analysis of it. My observations serve only to highlight the placing of the top-rated teams we beat in any given season. As such it debunked to a degree, IMO, a legitimate stat Darren quoted in the original debate: that in 2 full seasons to date Martinez has only beaten one side that finished in the top 9.

In total, over 11 seasons, Moyes only beat TEN teams who finished in the top 9. A ratio not too disimilar to Roberto, isn't it?

Nick Entwistle
20 Posted 19/11/2015 at 21:46:27
Newcastle have once finished 4th, the first season the places were extended. In fact theirs and Leeds' downfall is what brought Sky 4 into existence. Boro and Bolton were unable to make up the difference to Liverpool and Chelsea who were previously scrapping it out with Newcastle and Leeds for the 3rd and last CL spot where they all took their turn.

Moyes has at least won away to a team that finished in the top 4, and qualified for the top 4. Martinez does not need money to do this apparently so that’s fine if we have another shoddy transfer window.

Mike Allison
21 Posted 19/11/2015 at 22:21:28
Okay so we can compare Moyes’s and Martinez’s away records, although the difference in sample size makes even that a bit dubious. But for some posters this has become a general whinge about not winning enough away games, and the ones we do win only being against lower teams. Well, we would beat lower teams and lose to higher teams, for lack of a more sophisticated philosophical argument, er... Duh!

We just want points, no matter who they’re against, surely? If Moyes and Martinez have the same weakness of not winning away at the top sides and only being able to consistently pick up points against a mid- and lower-table teams, we should judge the final outcome over 38 games, not cherry-pick specific results to get upset about and ignore anything we’re good at that might actually make us happy or enjoy supporting Everton.

Jay Wood
22 Posted 19/11/2015 at 23:19:13
Mike @ 21

I totally agree that to compare Moyes’s and Martinez’s away records on such a small sample size makes the comparison dubious. But that is, basically, what Darren did in the thread I reference.

IMO, 11 seasons under Moyes makes for a legitimate sample size (all the more so, given most managers don’t last more than 2 seasons in the job...).

I don’t see as you claim (in this thread, at least) that for some posters this has become a general whinge about not winning enough away games.

The data shows the overwhelming bulk of our points each and every season comes from Fortress Goodison, which for most seasons in the last decade has been a ’given.’ When that given fails, we inevitably slide down the table.

Again, I agree with you. I don’t care a monkey’s fart where, or from whom, we glean the points... At Goodison Park or far-flung corners; at the Emirates or home to the woeful Makems. In the final reckoning, each win has a finite value of 3 points.

Of course, as you state, the bulk of our away wins comes against lower ranked teams. The point, which (for ’lack of a more sophisticated philosophical argument’) you appear to miss is... if we truly have ambitions to rank higher than 5th, 6th, 7th, etc... we need to be taking points off those higher-ranked competitors to benefit from the proverbial ’six-pointer’ swing to overhaul them in the league.

What’s the appropriate expression...? "Duh...?"

And as someone who has a half century plus in supporting Everton, even in the darkest hour supporting the Blues is a source of immeasurable pleasure for this particular Evertonian...

Darren Hind
23 Posted 20/11/2015 at 03:42:48
Hi Jay.

No I don't think you are having a go at me, I think you have brought some legitimate stats to the table. I do however, feel you have things a little arse-about-face.

The whole point of my argument was to dispel the myth that we now approach these games in a different way and have been more successful because of it. We haven't. "Sin Miedo" is just as much of a sound bite as "knives to a gunfight". One manager dampening expectations before a ball is kicked, the other full of bravado and talking shite... Both failing to deliver.

I fully expect Martinez to improve on his record. Time is on his side but, with £200m worth of a talent at his disposal. he has a lot less of an excuse than Moyes ever had for not having already done so.

Arsenal, RS, Chelsea and Man Utd had established themselves as the "perceived" top four long before Martinez or indeed Moyes (in Chelsea's case) came along.

I'm really not sure of the relevance in going back to the inception of the EPL. The fact is, one or more of those teams are and will find it increasingly difficult to qualify for the Champions League. There is a changing of the guard and we can't just keep referring back to the "Sky Four" every time we want to make Martinez's record look better than it is. As I said earlier, it's now 6/7 seasons since the "top four" actually finished top four.

Mike Allison,

You're missing the point. Of course three points are still three points, no matter who the opposition, but it's all about ambition... are we looking up or down?

If you regularly beat the teams below, you are not only gaining the points, you are denying them, thus increasing your chances of finishing above them. Likewise only by denying the top teams their now customary three points will we increase our chances of breaking into that group – if we'd have beaten Arsenal at the Emirates a couple of seasons ago, would that not have given us the momentum to go on and qualify in their place... One point less for them and two points more for us?

There is a psychological difference between gaining victory at the Emirates as opposed to the Hawthorns. One will boost a team's confidence and self-belief to a far greater degree than the other. Ask any Evertonian if (given the option) he would rather win at The Etihad or the Walker stadium this season and you'll be hard pressed to find anybody who said the latter.

Sometimes three points are far more important than err... three points.

David Ellis
24 Posted 20/11/2015 at 04:07:39
Great OP. Newcastle’s success was in the early years of the Premier League when they had a new owner and big injection of cash allowing them to outperform for a few years under Keegan. They have since reverted to their usual yoyo status. Blackburn and Leeds likewise were sugar daddy clubs for a while. Chelsea also had money in the 1990s from Harding who sadly died in a helicopter crash leaving the club with a major financial overstretch. Had it not been for Abramovich, they would have done a Leeds Utd – but they had a top 4 period pre-Abramovich.

Looking at the revenues of the top clubs, there is clearly a top 6 (add Spurs to the ususal suspects). There is clear daylight between them and us, although we are usually 7th or 8th in terms of revenue depending on our league position, but the difference between us and the rest of the Premier League is very little.

For those that say Moyes’s record was "terrible" etc, I despair. It was really very good given the revenue we have. Martinez is likewise doing OK. We can hope and dream for more... but to demand or expect it is delusional. Since Moyes arrived we have comfortably outperformed our financial peers – Villa, Newcastle etc and probably have done as well as Spurs.

Jay Harris
25 Posted 20/11/2015 at 05:18:36
IMO it is not about money or whether Moyes is better than Martinez (of which I have no doubt).

It is about Clough, it is about Shankly, it is about Ferguson and to an extent Kendall who built their clubs to become dynasties on very little spend with the exception of Ferguson.

If we had sought out a world class manager when Moyes left us as a 5th-placed club, we would undoubtedly be top 4 now.

Mike Allison
26 Posted 20/11/2015 at 07:52:27
Don't have stats for this so maybe it doesn't belong on here, but teams that get up for and win that 'big game' with the psychological boost often fail to maintain the level in games they should win. There's no way I'm doing that research, I'm not even sure how I would.

Most of what I want to say about this is in my 'what's a good result?' Article from about a month ago. The main point is that you don't do well in leagues through 'big' results, you do well in leagues by being relentless and consistent against the lesser teams.

Shane Corcoran
27 Posted 20/11/2015 at 09:50:09
I haven't read the thread at all really, but isn't the point about Martinez that he tries to win away whereas Moyes did no such thing?
Paul Kelly
28 Posted 20/11/2015 at 11:58:54
For what it’s worth;

The season we finished 4th (4th... yes 4th), I had an argument with a Gooner (being here in the South East there are plenty about), his point being that, even though we finished 4th, we didn’t actually finish 4th; we weren’t good enough for a 4th place finish (not the best thing to say to say to me after a beer or ten).

Cue him going on about all sorts of bollocks I didn’t give a flying fuck about, but what I told him, which is relevant to the OP:

"You're only as good as your last season, the league doesn’t lie."

Obviously the twat didn’t agree and I proper got my back up, proper, just like my grammar, what an idiot. It ended amicably after being restrained, I kid you not. What a tool, winds me up thinking about it. But point proven.

Jay Wood
29 Posted 20/11/2015 at 13:08:51
Nick @ 20

Dunno if your comment "Newcastle have once finished 4th" literally or not. If so, it's true. Newcastle HAVE only finished 4th ONCE - in 2001-02.

However, if you are trying to say the Barcodes have only finished IN the top 4 once in the PL era, you are very wrong.

They actually finished top 4 in 3 of the 1st 5 PL seasons. In 1993-94 3rd, 1995-96 and 1996-96 2nd, plus 2001-02 4th, 2002-03 3rd.

Jay Wood
30 Posted 20/11/2015 at 13:48:59
Shane @ 27

"I haven’t read the thread at all really, but isn’t the point about Martinez that he tries to win away whereas Moyes did no such thing?"

Two things:

1) perhaps if you took time to read the thread it would better inform you about the diverse opinions being expressed on the subject, before claiming as you do that ...

2) ... "Martinez tries to win away whereas Moyes did no such thing." Sure about that...? Just opinion, or do you have hard data to back that up?

One opinion in this thread is that RM’s ’sin miedo’ catch phrase is a hollow one and that Everton are even more timid away from home, especially against the top ranked clubs, than they ever were under Moyes.

For example, to date – including this season – against what I think most accept are the top 6 ’Blue Ribband’ clubs (Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool and Spurs - Roberto’s away record reads:

P 14; W 1, D 3, L 10; GF 7, GA 21.

That adds up to just 6 points from a possible 42 and just 7 goals scored in 12 visits to the top 6.

Not very good, is it...?

Jay Wood
31 Posted 20/11/2015 at 14:56:09
Darren @ 23

Good to know you don't feel I'm having a pop at you, but I've no idea what you refer to when you say I "have things a little arse-about-face."

I simply compiled the data, drew some conclusions from them and posted it for others to comment on without making any extreme claims pro or anti any manager.

Mixed in with your very valid opinion that not a lot has changed in terms of away performances under Martinez compared to Moyes, you also made some factual errors regarding results under Moyes and you were, IMO, contradictory in which teams you wish to categorize as 'top 4.'

The primary data I present is concerned with the frequency Everton win away to teams in the top half of the league, not solely against a perceived (or actual) 'top 4', which - as shown in this and other threads - is a very personal and subjective call.

Very much secondary was the data showing who had finished in the actual top 4 positions since the inception of the PL. That said, it does inform the debate of who can legitimately be considered as part of an historical 'top 4.'

Taken as a whole, I found the data revealing and informative as oft times debates on performance are based on an individual poster's particular bias to a fixed opinion will little or no reference to any supporting concrete evidence.

Shane Corcoran
32 Posted 20/11/2015 at 15:08:39
I’m very sorry Jay, I was a tad busy this morning and couldn’t prioritise reading your post.

I thought that by first acknowledging that I hadn’t read the thread that it might stop other posters from telling me that maybe I should read the thread; mistake number one.

It’s fairly obvious that ideally I would read the thread before commenting but in the absence of that chance I didn’t think I’d upset anyone by posting the comment that I posted; mistake number two.

As for the point I made, of course it’s just my opinion. What else could it be? A scientific conclusion?

And then you hit me with stats. My point was that he "tries" to win. None of your stats bare any significance to this point. Most of us have watched the games in question and it’s the approach to the game I mentioned, not the outcome.

So I’ll have a wee read now... and what I’m seeing is an awful lot of stats, a few people suggesting that they are just stats and that’s about it.

You’ve gone to a lot of trouble here but my point was the approach taken by both managers.

My memory’s not great but with Moyes at the helm I remember years of trying to get a 0-0 against what he perceived to be better teams. (I refrain from using the term "top 4" such is the difference of opinion on it and the fact that Moyes saw Liverpool as such a team regardless of where they finished.)

Under Martinez I recall us having a go at these grounds. I’ve just refreshed the old noggin by looking at the results and I’m happy to say that, in most cases, we tried to win the games.

Jay Wood
33 Posted 20/11/2015 at 15:57:59
Shane @ 32

Hopefully, having found the time to read the thread in greater depth, you realise it’s not an ’either / or’ debate about the relative merits of past and present managers, but rather a simple presentation of informative data about our historic away performances.

As such, it is for each individual to interpret the findings as they deem fit. I can understand if some have disdain for data and stats, but they can be helpful in discovering patterns which can be addressed to the benefit of the team, their results and their finishing league position.

Before replying to you, I too looked more closely at RM’s results since he joined us, away to the ’top 6.’

From his first season, I recall two very good consecutive away performances to Man Utd and Arsenal and, even though we only drew at the latter, the 1st half performance in that game gave me as much pleasure as any Everton performance in recent years.

The other games that season we got thumped at Liverpool 4-0 and Man City 3-1 and there were two ’meh’ games, both 1-0 loses to Chelsea and Spurs.

In his second season, the away games at the top 6 were all rather tepid or turgid affairs (kinda... Moyes-like you could say Shane...), with FIVE defeats and just a single point gleaned from them thanks to Jags rocket in the last minute to salvage a draw at Anfield.

Thus far this season, we’ve had another couple of turgid away performances to top 6 sides, a lose at Arsenal and a goalless draw at Spurs.

Care to list the games you consider Roberto tried to win, Shane, rather than merely set up for a draw as you imply was Moyes’s MO? Not that I find anything fundamentally wrong in Moyes’s creed, being the pragmatic man he is. Isn’t it the mantra of every professional associated with the game at the top level? "If we can’t win, let’s ensure we don’t lose..."???

Shane Corcoran
34 Posted 20/11/2015 at 16:46:26
Jay, I suppose the problem I and others would have with your last line is the very fact that Moyes decided that we can’t win whereas I’d have thought that Martinez thinks we can. That’s the crux of my point even if it wasn’t what your opening piece tried to address.

I too looked through the results under Martinez and, as bad as the performance in the 4-0 defeat to Liverpool was, I believe that it was probably due to the fact that Martinez went out to try and win the game. Moyes would almost certainly not have lost that game by that score but he’d probably have lost it.

During the end of Moyes’s reign a common theme on TW was that if we’re going to lose anyway why not have a go? The 4-0 defeat, aside from the fact that it hurt the fans more due to the opposition, was still only three points lost, the same amount had we struggled to a late 1-0 reversal had Moyes been in charge. The Man City defeat similarly was a decent effort to win as far as my memory serves me.

Last season we were poor but at no point did I think to myself "I wish Martinez would let them have a go", I just felt we were playing badly and confidence was low. Maybe I’m blinded by the view I formed in my first season but I doubt that Martinez sent them out to try to nick a draw last season.

Jay Wood
35 Posted 20/11/2015 at 17:47:52
Shane, the romantic in me would love Everton to play with a swagger, confidence and belief that we can ’do this lot,’ home or away, as our great teams in the past possessed.

Sadly, in the position we are as a club, the risks and rewards these days are so huge that retaining membership of the Premier League is absolutely vital.

I am certain a string of glorious defeats, if they saw our Premier League status under serious threat, would quickly change the tune of many a Blue who ask for more ’derring do’ from the side.

Another poster in this thread spoke of any points gained from any team having the same value, regardless of the opposition or the venue. As I said, Moyes is a pragmatic man and he balanced risk against reward in how he set up his teams against any and every opposition to primarily ensure he gave (as he saw it...) his team the best chance to avoid defeat and get a result.

Is it a method I wholly endorse? Absolutely not! Is it a method I comprehend? Absolutely yes!

Does it naturally follow from that, as you state (as FACT, no less...) that "Moyes decided that we can’t win whereas I’d have thought that Martinez thinks we can?" Personally, I don’t think either clause in your statement is correct.

I don’t see evidence that Moyes only spoke in terms of avoiding defeat to his teams, whereas Martinez constantly talks a good game – even post-match after a defeat! – ’sin miedo’ and all that but, be honest Shane, how many times this season have we really had a go?

You admit that last season we were poor but at no point did you think to yourself "I wish Martinez would let them have a go."

Your view conflicts with many a Blue who believes last season and on occasion this season, that has been very much the problem. Namely, that Roberto sets up the team too conservatively, with too great an emphasis on defensive personnel in the side, passing sideways in non-threatening areas of the pitch, starting matches ponderously and playing at too low a tempo.

Many a match-going and sofa-sitting spectator have expressed exasperation that Roberto does not allow his teams more liberty and loosen the lease to let a talented group really "have a go."

It’s all the more exasperating for some because – as you referenced – the side consistently played with much more swagger and verve in RM’s first season than we have subsequently witnessed.

Shane Corcoran
36 Posted 20/11/2015 at 18:11:19
Jay, I must apologise for using the word "fact". Completely incorrect and something I would berate others for. A slip of the fingers.

I can see Moyes’s point of view too, I didn’t criticise it and there’s no evidence available other than his comments and how his team line up that that was his actual view of the game. He mentioned while he was the Manchester United manager that he was happy to get out of Old Trafford alive which speaks volumes.

Also, the term "having a go" that I used may be misleading. What I mean is that I feel that Martinez feels that his team can win the game. They may be sent to keep the ball and make very small progress but I would argue that they’re not sent out to concede possession and let the opposition try to break us down. The method of trying to win is a different argument.

In summary, I can see both men’s approaches and both have their merits. I was merely pointing out that, regardless of how they wanted their team to go about their job, one wanted not to lose and the other wants to win.

Darren Hind
37 Posted 21/11/2015 at 07:27:55
"One wants not to lose and the other wants to win"

Which way around is it then, Shane? Is it the guy who won quite often at Man City, or the guy whose team have raised the white flag so readily every time he's gone to the Etihad?

Is it the guy whose team had victory snatched from them at Anfield after Beckford had put us ahead, or were Robbed when Distin had a perfectly good goal disallowed, or is it the guy who got us murdered without going even close to scoring ourselves? Don't forget Jagieka's wonder strike was our first attempt worthy of the name and that was in what-have-we-got-to-lose time.

Martinez was dealt sucker punches at both Stamford Bridge and WHL when conceding late goals after spending the second half of both games trying to hold onto what we had. He has no wins at the grounds of any of the top six teams in two full seasons.

I have been amongst the Evertonians and witnessed the hand-wringing frustration of watching our team hardly muster a shot because nobody was allowed to break ranks and get forward.

Don't get me wrong; I'm not claiming Moyes was anything but negative, there are of course a few isolated cases (as mentioned) but he was a proper miserable bastard of a coach and I hated his approach.

My problem is with this notion that, because Martinez told us we will go "without fear", his disciples think we now "Have a go". We don't. The facts, the stats and indeed the evidence of our own eyes will confirm that.

Martinez and Moyes couldn't be further apart in terms of style and personality. They're chalk and cheese, Gucci and M&S.
But when it comes to their approach to these games, they're like identical fucking twins.

Shane Corcoran
38 Posted 21/11/2015 at 14:04:10
Darren, I’m in over my head as I don’t even recall some of what you’re saying so I guess I’ll have to reassess.

But on your point about Moyes winning quite often against Man City, did any of these happen since they became mega-rich City?

Patrick Murphy
39 Posted 21/11/2015 at 14:17:22
Since the start of the 2010-11 season there have been 86 home defeats for the top ranked clubs, those clubs being Arsenal, Spurs, Liverpool, Man Utd, Man City and Chelsea, but only 49 of them were against teams from outside of that elite group.

Everton have won on just two occasions, at Old Trafford and The Etihad. Aston Villa and West Brom have won a total of six times on those grounds, whilst Newcastle have amassed five victories.

Even Roberto’s former club Wigan had four such league victories during this period. West Ham have improved this season as they had formerly only won once but have taken their tally up to four during Bilic’s tenure.

Nigel Gregson
40 Posted 21/11/2015 at 14:45:07
It's all well and good talking about away wins etc, but the league isn’t won by going to Old Trafford and beating Man Utd or beating Liverpool at Anfield. It's won by consistently beating all the cellar dwellers and grinding out the 1-0s that might otherwise have been draws.

I’d much rather that we are able to do the latter than going to the big boys and win, while conceding points where we shouldn’t.

Matt Traynor
41 Posted 22/11/2015 at 06:44:20
Interesting article and debate. One thing that has struck me this season is the panic at the EPL about potentially losing that 4th CL spot. The EPL has a clear (but eminently understandable) conflict of interests here.

The distribution of the broadcast revenue is the most equitable of all the European leagues. I haven’t looked at this recently, but a few years back, the ratio of earnings from the top team to the bottom team was 1.66. In Spain, the biggest earner is around 22 times what the bottom team receives in TV revenue.

Of course, the commercial deals (that old chestnut) is what really sets teams aside. This season Man Utd will post revenues of around £500m, or around 5 times what we will get. Ever since the advent of the Premier League we’ve been far too dependent on broadcast revenue (like most teams). Prior to this latest round of media deals, our RS neighbours had a commercial income that was in excess of our total revenue.

Anyway, back to the Premier League’s conflict of interest. They do not want us to lose the 4th spot. Neither do UEFA - BT Sport have a huge contract with them, and if England loses that 4th spot, it will potentially reduce the amount the rights will sell for, even if, as expected, Sky aggressively try to win it back.

So Man City were the recent team to break the traditional top 4 lock-out of Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea and the RS. Their performance to date in Europe has been weak – doesn’t help the co-efficients.

This season it looks increasingly likely that the only way Chelsea will qualify for next seasons ECL is to win it. Not likely. Having a new team break into the top 4 and then struggle (as famously highlighted by ourselves in 2005) is not in the Premier League’s interests.

Sad to say, but seeing as it’s all about the money, they should just keep us with the 4 slots on the basis that BT (and Sky before) pay a lot more than Germany, Italy and Spain do for the media rights!

Tony Abrahams
42 Posted 22/11/2015 at 08:30:49
Darren, I didn’t think we were trying to hold on to what we had at Spurs, and Chelsea two seasons ago, but I do believe we have took about ten steps back since then, when playing away against the so-called bigger teams.

We were much better than Spurs and should have been well ahead only to switch off and concede, whereas at Chelsea, I thought we played great but never had a forward on the pitch because Lukaku couldn’t play.

Hopefully with confidence returning this might change, but it will take me a long time to forgive Martinez for the way we played against Liverpool at GOODISON last season. People might say that this season wasn’t much better but, given the inexperience in our back four that day, I will give him the benefit of the doubt for that one.

Anyone fancy Liverpool over two legs in the League Cup? It could happen, and wouldn’t it be lovely for Martinez to earn his stripes, if it did!

Jay Wood
43 Posted 23/11/2015 at 13:23:52
Revisiting this thread after a couple of days, I’d like to respond to a couple of posters.

Shane @ 36

I know Darren can be a bit abrasive and also selective in the points he makes, but he does have a point in challenging something of a myth that you repeat in your posts: namely, that Roberto sets up his teams to "have a go" and to win, more than the more conservative Moyes.

You now acknowledge your term "having a go" in relation to how Roberto sets up his team is misleading. You believe Martinez sets out to win, in contrast to Moyes who sets out not to lose.

You add that now Everton are "not sent out to concede possession and let the opposition try to break us down." I would counter that some of our more memorable victories against the elite sides under Roberto have resulted from the exact reverse of what you claim ... we DO concede possession, let the opposition come on to us and, as they try to break us down, we counter rapidly and score. Various victories against both United and Chelsea come to mind. Of course, it can also go spectacularly wrong as it did in the 4-0 thrashing at Anfield ... and we were damn lucky to get away with just conceding the four!

Your earlier comment that the 4-0 defeat "was still only three points lost, the same amount had we struggled to a late 1-0 reversal had Moyes been in charge" is a little ... bizarre!

You seemingly excuse RM’s appalling away record to the top 6 last year - 5 defeats, a single draw - on the dubious premise that "at least we had a go and anyway, under Moyes the defeats would have been more painful to watch ... holding out for 85 minutes before conceding a late goal to lose."

On this I side with Darren ... neither the performances nor the results against the top ranked sides have radically improved under RM’s ’philosophy.’ The promise of his very impressive first season was certainly absent last season and has yet to fully ignite again this season.

Jay Wood
44 Posted 23/11/2015 at 13:41:26
Patrick @ 39

Interesting numbers and analysis. It further confirms what many believe. Everton badly underperform away to elite clubs in contrast to our peers in the league.

Nigel @ 40

Your points are acknowledged in the thread. Three points are three points, whoever you beat and wherever you them them.

But what is also self-evident (and referenced in the thread), by beating higher ranked teams we potentially gain a 'six point swing' in our favour to increase our chances of overhauling them in the league and reaching the Holy Grail of CL football.

Shane Corcoran
45 Posted 23/11/2015 at 14:06:18
Jay, you've noted a hell of a lot of what I've said but excluded the part where I willingly said I need to reassess my view given what I'm being told.

I would venture (although not convincingly given your forensic nature) that Martinez's teams don't willingly concede possession like Moyes's but rather are forced back by better teams. With Moyes I felt it was a case of the full-backs knocking it down the channel to relieve pressure before reorganising for the next attack from the opposition.

One point I'd be slightly stronger in defending myself on is the one that you find bizarre.

I remember losing to 1-0 to United at Old Trafford in 2011 to a Hernandez goal. It was typical of Moyes's reign away to the better teams. Some would call it a gallant effort but seasoned ToffeeWebbers, I think I recall, saw the late goal as an inevitability. They feeling I got from the comments was "why not go out and try to win the game" as trying to get a 0-0 at a place like Old Trafford is likely to end in defeat anyway. If we tried to win, who knows, we might actually win. What is it you find so odd about that?

By the way, my comments on your detailed analysis of my posts isn't a criticism. I welcome it and as I've mentioned before both your and Darren's posts have persuaded me to have a re-think on the issue. Not that I came in to the conversation with 100% conviction in the first place.

Denis Richardson
46 Posted 23/11/2015 at 14:12:33
Patrick/Jay, thanks for the stats for the 116 year history, can’t really argue against that although if I were a pedant I’d say 10th not 11th.

Suffice to say I joined the blue family in 1983 so that’s where it begins in my world, not 1992 (or 1878...). However I’d also say it’s a bit pointless going so far back as recent history is more indicative of where we should be. I couldn’t stand Moyes at the end but he got us top half pretty much every year so I don’t believe 11th should be our benchmark.

At a minimum we should currently be aiming for top 8 and anything below that is a failure in my eyes, anything above represents different degrees of success. I think we have the 8th highest wage bill, or thereabouts, and that should be a guide of where we should be aiming for.

Obviously the odd cup would also be very welcome....

Jay Wood
47 Posted 23/11/2015 at 14:22:14
Thanks Shane for acknowledging my ’forensic detailed analysis’ of your posts and welcoming it.

I don’t consider my analysis ’forensic,’ if and when I respond to individual posters. I think I offer a personalised opinion on issues, or a rational alternative view, whilst highlighting what I consider obvious contradictions in a person’s position if they exist.

Many on here don’t broke with any challenge to their opinions and immediately get all humpty and abusive, so it’s refreshing when someone is willing to engage and re-consider their position in the light of an exchange of opinion with another poster, who is simply offering a different perspective. Isn’t that what healthy debate should be about...?

So... Good on ya, Shane.

Shane Corcoran
48 Posted 23/11/2015 at 14:30:06
Couldn’t agree more Jay. As I would put it, people are more concerned with being right than being enlightened.

Not for the first time I’ve probably used the wrong word when I said 'forensic'. I suppose it’s the fact that my initial post was based on memory rather than any hard evidence or detailed analysis of the subject that I foolishly didn’t expect to be pulled up on it.

An important lesson learned.

James Flynn
49 Posted 29/11/2015 at 17:59:08
Watching the last two games and considering Roberto’s comments about the next 12 games; why just the Top 4-5 and Europe? The league is wide open. Pick a favorite. Not "Sky 4" names. Who, in 2015-16, looks to win the league a third of the way thru the Table? No-one, right? Anyone could win it.

A lot depends on Roberto’s talk to the boys in training. I liked his "The next 12 games" comments. The gauntlet thrown down to the players. I like it. Media savvy as he is, I just wish he’d amp it up some.

We have our ex-Man Utd contingent, Piennar at Ajax, then who else have played on title-winning teams? This group has to feel the pressure of fighting for the EPL trophy. Otherwise, Everton remains a holding place to make a thumping wage, while waiting for better.

Point being, what I’m sure is missing is THAT guy; the mean, vicious competitor opponents hate to play against. This guy we do not have. Anyway, I don’t see him. Cahill and Neville came to their time to go, but they gave us that "Aw fuck, Everton next?" edge. Even Fellaini was a nasty bastard.

Roberto has basically poo-poohed the window in January. Yet, while we have a youthful bunch enjoying their football; a talented-enough, "How the fuck did we lose" tough customer would do in the midfield.

That guy is the missing piece.

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