Lukaku signs off with thanks to Everton

Monday 10 July 2017  172 Comments  [Jump to last]
Romelu Lukaku's potentially record-breaking move to Manchester United has now been officially announced with the Belgian signing a five-year contract.

Lukaku's £75m transfer to Old Trafford is said to involve a £15m appearance-related clause that would mean another £15m to Everton.

The move wasn't confirmed until to day but Lukaku was already talking about his dream move on TV and on social media over the weekend.

Lukaku was interviewed by ESPN about his switch from Goodison Park to Old Trafford and, after expressing his delight at joining the "world's biggest club" with "the best fans", he sent a farewell message to the club he joined four years ago, initially on loan and then on a permanent basis from Chelsea for £28m:

I want to say a big thank you to all the people involved at @everton,". I want to thank the fans for your support throughout the 4 years we've spend together.

You guys helped me through all my games and I can proudly say it was an honour to play in front of you. To the staff at the the stadium and training ground thank you for making me feel home from the first day I walked in.

To my teammates it was great to play with you guys. To the technical staff thank you for helping me become a better player. Working with you guys has been a pleasure and I'll take your advice throughout the rest of my career. Thank you Everton Football Club.

 

Reader Comments (172)

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Peter Gorman
1 Posted 10/07/2017 at 07:49:44
You're welcome!
John G Davies
2 Posted 10/07/2017 at 07:55:28
Fantastic business to get the deal we did.
He's said thanks to all concerned.
He's happy, we're happy, everyone's a winner.

Time to move on and watch the team improve without him.

David Pearl
4 Posted 10/07/2017 at 08:09:54
A nice touch his little picture video and Forever Everton background music. Let's see if we can play as a team now and replace his goals. Everton is all I care about.
Liam Reilly
5 Posted 10/07/2017 at 08:21:43
Does that make us the 2nd best fans then?

A poor attempt at PR no doubt; because it's clear he always thought himself far bigger than Everton Football Club.

Crazy money for this guy, let's move on and spend it wisely.

Dave Pritchard
6 Posted 10/07/2017 at 08:24:33
Some will say that he doesn't mean the nice things he said about us and who knows whether he did or not. Hopefully we can stop talking about him now and look to the future and spend the proceeds of his sale.
Bob Parrington
7 Posted 10/07/2017 at 08:25:02
Thanks for the goals, Rom! Good luck in the future except against us!!!! It's not easy to put an old head on young shoulders and so you might have upset a few of us with your comments along the way but we appreciate your parting remarks to the club an fans.

So take advice with care! There are too many greedy bastards out there who care about nothing but money.

Lee Brownlie
8 Posted 10/07/2017 at 08:30:16
'..expressing his delight at joining the "world's biggest club" with "the best fans"..' Already licking up for his own ends, then.. till it suits otherwise!! Thanks for the goals, sure, but now go join your 'world's best fans' you self-adoring prick!!!

.. As a side-note, I See Tony Bellew also proving he's got all the footballing knowledge of a.. well, a heavyweight boxer, with his 'irreplaceable Lukaku.. scores goals from inside and outside the box etc..' quotes.

Whilst scoring ONE of his goals last season from outside the box makes this statement technically true, it doesn't quite make that particular aspect of Lukaku's goal threat a shining beacon of light, does it?

Nor does a 61% pass completion rate make him exactly someone to even be relied upon to manage to get the ball to a team-mate at any given time, either! Irreplaceable? I'd hope not!!...

Dermot Byrne
9 Posted 10/07/2017 at 08:31:16
Fair enough. Onwards now.
Mark Andersson
10 Posted 10/07/2017 at 08:32:00
I wish him all the best, he has a lot to learn if he is going to become a top target man. Sure he will score goals but I still think Man Utd are a spent force without Sir Alex. They had their moment in the sun, now it's our time, well you have to have a dream...
Charlie Lloyd
11 Posted 10/07/2017 at 08:36:01
The words may have carried some sentiments. The timing is classless.

Throughout his Everton career he didn't know how or when to communicate and this is no surprise to me that his parting words come before the official announcement. Sums the man up.

Brian Williams
12 Posted 10/07/2017 at 08:37:49
Nice words.
Eddie Dunn
13 Posted 10/07/2017 at 08:38:55
Lee, Bellew spends time down at Finch Farm, so he's bound to be matey with the top lads. If I was chummy with Rom, I would find it hard to criticise him in public.

The latest statement smacks of an afterthought. He has already said Man Utd fans are the best etc, someone has probably reminded him that he will have to pop over to Goodison next season!

"Oh err yeah, I'd like to thank the little guy who cleaned my headphones."

Brian Keating
14 Posted 10/07/2017 at 08:43:52
It amazes me, the guy can do no right in some people's eyes.

Scored goals for fun, the best striker we've had in nearly 30 years. I'm gutted he's gone. Nice of him to say goodbye and thanks. He could have said nothing.

I sincerely hope he's not booed when he comes back in a Man Utd shirt.

Brian Williams
15 Posted 10/07/2017 at 08:45:05
Three more players to come in seemingly. Sigurdsson will be one of them. Hopefully there's a striker among the other two.
Dave Pritchard
16 Posted 10/07/2017 at 08:54:19
Mr Angry Lee @ 8. Let it go man.
Ben Collins
17 Posted 10/07/2017 at 08:55:57
Totally agree, Charlie Lloyd.

Thank your old fans and club first after the transfer is complete and then give your thoughts on new club. He is a classless act and seeing Pogba's latest twitter release on the news of him in a rollercoaster just makes me shake my head more at the narcissistic ways of some and it seems Lukaku wants to follow down this path.

Thanks for the goals but glad gone and EFC rolls on into a brighter future.

Jim Knightley
18 Posted 10/07/2017 at 09:01:31
I agree Brian.

He, for all his faults, is an uncommonly good goalscorer. Two of the league's title favourites would not bid 75mil plus add-ons for the type of player described by many of his detractors. He has faults but there are few players as clinical in world football and he always wants to improve, as he has shown with us.

Lukaku was not born in Liverpool – or in England. He was brought by us and his loyalty goes that far – as far as ours would have gone, if he had been a 10-goal-a-season striker.

He has spoken about leaving too often but ultimately he has been fantastic for this club. He has scored a lot of goals for us and we've turned over a figure approaching £50mil in profit. That may not be beaten in a very, very long time.

I won't boo him – I'll just hope we can find the right players to improve the squad to make up for his lost. I'm hoping for a striker, a creative presence if Barkley is to leave, and a left back.

Maybe Giroud or Dembele; Sigurdsson, Lanzini or Younes; Bertrand, Cresswell or Robertson.

Dan Brierley
19 Posted 10/07/2017 at 09:03:39
I think his signing was a huge turning point for us, most of my lifetime was watching us buy second rate strikers or those past their prime. Now, 68 goals, later he leaves as our top Premier League scorer of all time, and a huge sack of cash to reinvest.

Thanks for the memories, Rom, good luck to you in future (except against us of course).

James Morgan
20 Posted 10/07/2017 at 09:04:26
I didn't like his comments about Man Utd having "the best fans" but this is a nice touch from the guy. Can't say anything negative about his farewell letter, really.

I just hope we show our true blue class and give him a warm reception when he returns, when we stuff United.

James Watts
21 Posted 10/07/2017 at 09:05:46
And that, Ladies and Gentleman, will be the last ever Lukaku thread on this forum. Amen!
Joe O'Brien
22 Posted 10/07/2017 at 09:07:28
I'm not one bit gutted that he's gone... he is a classless act. Nice words? It looked more like "Shit...I suppose I should say thanks to the fans" words to me.
Dave Pritchard
23 Posted 10/07/2017 at 09:08:49
James, hope you're right but likely that people will be having a go at him within threads that are nothing to do with him for a while yet.
Mike Allen
24 Posted 10/07/2017 at 09:11:05
Goals or no goals he always came across to me as if could have done more. I think he could and should have been pulled off or dropped for some of his performances.

I had no time for him once he started the "I'm better than Everton" quotes. Not bad as a striker but not a good footballer.

I wonder if he will still wear his Chelsea P-Jays or are they Lukaku P-Jays or even Pogba P-Jays?

Dave Abrahams
25 Posted 10/07/2017 at 09:15:13
John G Davies (#2) says it all for me, good post, John.
Ian Hollingworth
26 Posted 10/07/2017 at 09:42:14
Thanks.

Now let's move on and hopefully this is the last ever thread on TW regarding Rom.

COYB

Mike Green
27 Posted 10/07/2017 at 09:56:54
Damned if he does, damned if he doesn't.

As far as parting shots go you can't ask for much more than that. I'm just going to take it as it is and treat it as the full stop to his time with us. No matter what he says now he is damaged goods after his faux pas in the Belgian media etc.

I believe we are in a infinitely better position than we were when he came, I think team morale and performances will improve now he's gone and the £50m profit we've made on him will help takes us to the next level. He served an important purpose but our future, and his, lay elsewhere now.

I will remember him for his performance against Bournemouth as the highlight, say goodbye and leave it at that.

He is now officially part of our history.

Paul Chaloner
28 Posted 10/07/2017 at 09:59:41
I always had the feeling his comments were media driven with the aim of trying to unsettle a player they clearly wanted to join one of their preferred clubs. It's happened now, I'm already over it and looking forward to next season like no other since the mid 80s.

Let's remember that our last title winning 'team' had five players who scored over 10 goals each, without the best British striker of his generation. This looks like the aim given the recent signings. Onwards and upwards!

Rob Halligan
29 Posted 10/07/2017 at 10:04:52
So Lukaku has got his wish and moved to a "bigger club" than us, one where he can play in the Champions League, and win the Premier League. I for one will be sorry to see him go.

In the four years he was with us, he did what he was bought to do, which was score goals. If we can add another striker to the squad, and spread the goals around a bit more, we will probably need at least 4 or 5 players hitting double figures, then I will admit it was a good piece of business selling him.

Oh, and by the way Rom, I think you've joined the wrong club. You will get your wish of playing in the Champions League, but I can't see Man Utd winning the premier league any time in the next few years.

Terry Downes
30 Posted 10/07/2017 at 10:05:02
Just a quick well done to Roberto for insisting we signed him.

He got quite a bit wrong in his time but signing Rom was the best thing he did £50+ mill profit ain't to be sniffed at.

Rudi Coote
31 Posted 10/07/2017 at 10:10:13
Enough said, move on!
Kevin Rowlands
32 Posted 10/07/2017 at 10:20:51
I've been one of his biggest critics but he's no longer an Everton player so I'm not really interested in him or his ego anymore. I have my doubts things will be as rosy as he thinks they will be with the world's greatest fans and biggest club, but not our problem. Time to move on for me, thanks for the goals, goodbye.
Andrew Ellams
33 Posted 10/07/2017 at 10:34:09
It seems standard practice now for a footballer to move clubs an instantly say his new fans are the best around. It's all about getting them onside.

Whether Everton will miss Lukaku or not, only time will tell. Even if nobody at the club hits 25 this year, the acid test is how many we score as a team. That is the way Koeman seems to be heading, a group of players hitting 10-15 rather than one man hitting 40% of all our goals.

David Hallwood
34 Posted 10/07/2017 at 10:40:12
It's about 50/50 on here, but c'mon, gents, stop acting like a no mark who's just been dumped by your girlfriend.

We really are bigger than that these days. Good bit of business all round; to break the bank to buy him, 4 years good service and selling him for a huge profit.

Job's a gud'un. Onwards and upwards

Michael Burke
35 Posted 10/07/2017 at 10:40:33
I'm just wondering whether Lukaku's detractors would've complained had he left without saying anything? My guess is yes. Any opportunity for a moan about him. I think you are the ones who will secretly miss him the most.
Derek Thomas
36 Posted 10/07/2017 at 10:41:34
I don't know which applies – If you can fake sincerity or nothing works like a carefully rehearsed ad-lib? A bit of both I suppose. Up there with that Johnny Depp 'apology'.

All-in-all; yeahm goals but too many "couldn't be arsed" games, totally dodgy penno taker too.

I don't think that Pogba is the best influence on him either.

Colin Glassar
37 Posted 10/07/2017 at 10:44:37
As far as I'm concerned, that's it. Good luck for the future Rom, hope you have a great career (except when you play against us). You scored loads of goals for us so no hard feelings on my part.

I can't wait for the new season to start. COYB!!!!

John Hammond
38 Posted 10/07/2017 at 10:48:38
He seems like a decent bloke and no one's perfect. I'm sure we were all making some unwise decisions when we were his age. He's hardly a nasty piece of work though is he.

Exciting times are head so let's move on!

Peter Gorman
39 Posted 10/07/2017 at 10:59:02
For those who are 'wishing him all the best' I hope that is just limited to his continued good health and happiness.

In the context of football, 'wishing him the best' is wishing Man Utd the best. Not for me thanks. I wish him and them the worst as I do any other club above us.

Peter Gorman
40 Posted 10/07/2017 at 11:02:50
ps: I've well and truly moved on, I am as moved on as a Romelu with several games of the season to go. But I think those who dissect the insincerity of his statement do so with his total behaviour to date in mind.
Kase Chow
41 Posted 10/07/2017 at 11:11:03
I'll miss his goals for sure but not the way he made it patently obvious he was doing us a favour being here.

I'd really like it if Everton and also Rom both go onto bigger and better things respectively.

That way we won't miss his goals so much and everyone is happy.

Good luck Rom. Thanks for memories.

Peter Barry
42 Posted 10/07/2017 at 11:12:01
Gone and soon forgotten
Daniel Lim
43 Posted 10/07/2017 at 11:16:01
I'm with you, Peter. I can't wish him well, unless he's leaving the Premier League. Man Utd will be one of our rivals for a top 4 finish.
Drew Shortis
44 Posted 10/07/2017 at 11:17:29
Best of luck to Rom. Scored some great goals for us. Frustrating at times and thrilling at others.

I'm trying to imagine the past few seasons without his goals. He came in at a time when we really needed a goalscorer, delivered consistently and left us in a way that will stand the club in good stead.

I'm a little bit frustrated that he's chosen to leave at a time when it looks like we're finally serious in our intent to reach the top but that's life. I think we'll end up with a much better team (and squad) as a result of his departure so no bitterness from my part.

If he hadn't constantly been talking about a move to a bigger club for most of his time with us, I'm sure he would have been a huge fan favorite instead of the shrugs he's getting at the moment.

Carl Taylor
45 Posted 10/07/2017 at 11:20:12
Decent goalscorer, but a prize cock of a person. However, imagine what you would have been like if at the age of 24 you had more money than you could possibly spend and a load of leeches whispering in your ear about how great you are and how you deserve more. I'll wager, if your being honest, 90% of us would be just as big of an idiot as the Lukaku's and Pogba's of this world.

I hope we're berating Sandro or Onyekuru in 4 years time for their demands and dreams of greater wealth, as that would mean they have been a great success for us.

Duncan McDine
46 Posted 10/07/2017 at 11:37:11
Big pressure on him at Man Utd to score 20+ every season. Will he become yet another one to belatedly realise how good he had it at Everton?... Lescott & Pienaar spring to mind.

I genuinely think we are in direct competition with Man Utd this season, so I won't be wishing him good luck.

Terry Underwood
48 Posted 10/07/2017 at 11:55:25
Never a Blue... Just ships in the night. Let it go and move on.
Eugene Ruane
49 Posted 10/07/2017 at 11:58:48
He's a modern footballer who can deliver goals, the game's most valuable commodity.

And when you deliver enough of them, 'bigger' teams will inevitably come calling (remember, Utd couldn't fend off Madrid when Ronaldo expressed a desire to go).

His "I want Champions League football" pronouncements after each goal he scored were tiresome, but no doubt his sweaty, fat, trackie-wearing meff agent had a hand in some of that.

Anyway, I wish him no ill will and my only real interest is in those who will be playing for Everton.

It's really starting to look like Koeman has decided on some kind of shit-or-bust policy re signings.

Maybe a case of "No holff-measures, I want a load of new fayshes who'll be MY men."

I just hope there's some kind of..um..plan to all this, because if we don't hit the ground running, we know that many have the patience of ADHD 5 year olds and will become very restless, very quickly.

"THEY'RE ALL SHHHIIITE LAD!! MOSHIRI'S A NOB 'EAD. KOEMAN'S FUCKED THIS CLUB" (Aug 12th, Everton-Stoke, half-time 0-0)

Everyone is understandably very excited by the new signings (and our speed off the mark at getting them in) but without a proper plan, it will be a case of just hoping things 'go well' (which has been our 'plan', seemingly for...ever)

All will be revealed shortly I suppose.

Up the Toffees!!

Brent Stephens
50 Posted 10/07/2017 at 11:59:07
Best of luck, Rom, except when you play against us.
Kim Vivian
51 Posted 10/07/2017 at 12:02:38
As a final comment – tbh, I was more 'pro' than 'ante' Lukaku but did think a different striker (Giroud eg?) in the same role would have scored most of those goals.

However – The following stats (just pointed out to me) lifted from a Sky feature may offer a yardstick as to his overall contribution.

I was surprised by this...

Lukaku's running stats

Premier League season Distance covered per 90 mins Rank - outfield players Rank - forwards

2016-17 8.8km 476 (out of 482) Last
2015-16 8.6km 503 (503) Last

But thanks anyway, and bon voyage, and good luck for when you leave Man Utd for Europe.

Brian Williams
52 Posted 10/07/2017 at 12:14:36
We won't miss him if we get another striker in. The signings we've made have been great, better than most would have dreamed of BUT if we don't get another proven goalscorer in all these signings wont mean much.
Please Ronald buy me Dembele.
Eddie Dunn
53 Posted 10/07/2017 at 12:16:10
Peter Gorman, totally agree; he plays for Man Utd, therefore I hope he only scores in his own net.
Joe Clitherow
54 Posted 10/07/2017 at 12:19:13
Peter Gorman

Spot on. No personal ill will for Rom, he was great for us in my opinion and we have great profit.

But I hope his footballing career goes down the toilet more spectacularly than Juan Veron at Man Utd. Or David Moyes.

James Stewart
55 Posted 10/07/2017 at 12:20:43
A word of it might have rang true had he not been pratting around on social media with Man Utd fans while still an Everton player.
Charles Barrow
56 Posted 10/07/2017 at 12:39:15
Let's not get too bitter over his departure. I think its a shame but all players tend to move on nowadays. I wish him well and hope he scores plenty of goals (but not against us) in a misfiring united team, who finish 5th. I'll happily give him a respectful clap at Goodison.
Tony J Williams
57 Posted 10/07/2017 at 12:40:43
Disrespectful sly arse, poncing about with his new fella Pogba. slapping each other's dicks before any move has actually been made official.

Gobshite.

It's actually quite funny, as we became a better "team" when Rooney left, I think we will become a better "team" because the arrogant prick has gone and it coincides with Rooney coming back.

Can't fault his goal return, but as already pointed out on older threads, how many goals were game changers.

The most interesting stat this season was that we would have ended up in the same league position without his goals.

The lad can score for fun at the end of games where we are already winning.

It will be interesting to see how he does, but I will not be wishing him well, as that goes against supporting only Everton.

I hope he fails miserable, just like I hope the other 18 teams forwards fail miserably every season.

Stan Schofield
58 Posted 10/07/2017 at 12:54:43
Tony, just to clear up a point you're making, where you say we would have ended up in the same position without his goals.

It doesn't work like that. If he hadn't played, the course of games would have been different and we don't know what the results would have been.

Subtracting goals as you've done is a purely abstract numerical exercise, and has nothing to do with the real world. It's a common mistake that's been made in a number of past threads, and corrected as above.

Steve Ferns
59 Posted 10/07/2017 at 12:58:03
This all reads like a teenager after being dumped.

We just sold our best player. There's no arguing against that. But unlike when Rooney left, Gravesen left, Barmby left, Furgeson left or any of the others who left for bigger and better things (Stones, Lescott, Arteta ...), this feels a lot less painless.

We've spent the Lukaku money already and we've spent it well. If Moshiri is truly investing in the club, let's see if we can spend £100m more. Then, we can truly forget Romelu and concentrate on our own glory.

We need to start acting like a big club again from the stands, not just inside Finch Farm and the Goodison offices. A big club would be saying, "Sorry Romelu, we got a good offer for you, and we've decided to accept it, we wish you well with your new club and hope you're not too disappointed. Thanks for your service."

So Rom, it makes great business sense for us to sell you. You were not perfect, but we hope you can continue to improve and if you do, maybe we can re-sign you to give you Champions League football next season (when Man Utd miss out). All the best.

Davie Turner
60 Posted 10/07/2017 at 13:03:30
Some good memories and a good financial return. All the best, Rom.
Peter Gorman
61 Posted 10/07/2017 at 13:06:05
"We've sold our best player but this feels a lot less painful (more painless)."

The first cut is the deepest, baby.

Pps. If you are reading this Michelle, I miss you.

Brent Stephens
62 Posted 10/07/2017 at 13:06:17
"The most interesting stat this season was that we would have ended up in the same league position without his goals".

Absolute tosh. Pure guesswork.

Colin Grierson
63 Posted 10/07/2017 at 13:10:57
Who cares what he says!? Allowing his words to upset you now is like getting upset at someone not thanking you for letting them out of a side street in traffic, or opening a door for you. Who cares?
Peter Gorman
64 Posted 10/07/2017 at 13:10:59
Pure mathematics, Brent, but I agree – it is tosh!
Eddie Dunn
65 Posted 10/07/2017 at 13:26:38
Correct, Brent, his mere presence near the goal could draw a defender, opening space for others. It is a fatuous argument.

I am willing to acknowledge his sizable impact on the pitch, but like many others, always wondered if he was giving it his very best effort. When he was in the mood he was fantastic.

His attiude to our fans though has been distanced. The times he failed to go over to the marvellous away contingent says it all to me. I always got the impression that he thought himself better than us, and now he has his wish.

He is no longer our player and he has joined our rivals. Just as I hoped that Moyes, Fellaini, Rodwell, Lescott would fare badly, I also hope that the grass does not prove to be greener in Manchester.

He will score goals, but I hope he doesn't make double figures and I hope they get dumped out of the Champions League. Perhaps we will meet them in the Europa League.

It would be nice to see him at Goodison in the Mickey Mouse Cup.

Ernie Baywood
66 Posted 10/07/2017 at 13:28:41
The most interesting stat for me last season was the goal contribution outside of the top scorer.

We had Barkley second top score in the league with 5.

Only the relegated clubs had a worse performing second top goalscorer. And one of them was on loan from us and did it in only a few games.

I struggle to believe that's just because we have terrible attackers, on a par with the 'talent' at Hull, Boro and Sunderland.

I firmly believe that we're better off without Lukaku. With £90M burning a hole in Moshiri's arse pocket too.

Anto Byrne
67 Posted 10/07/2017 at 14:19:05
I really can't say if he is insincere or not. I think the Man Utd deal was great for both clubs. I'm sure he could have worded his statement about fans and the club.

Nevertheless, we had a great goalscorer and no doubt he will continue to do so at Man Utd. I do feel most defenders will have his measure... It should be interesting to say the least.

Soren Moyer
68 Posted 10/07/2017 at 14:51:51
Can't blame him for wanting to move to manure in search of trophies, but "world's best fans" they are not!

And a big thanks to Jose for insisting on not inserting a buy-out clause when they sold Lukaku to us!

Phil (Kelsall) Roberts
69 Posted 10/07/2017 at 14:55:25
A little statistical look back

He scored 68 goals in the Premier League over 4 years.

23 of them (1/3rd) were against West Ham, Sunderland, Villa and Bournemouth.

Against the big clubs 4 against Man City, 2 against Arsenal and 1 against Spurs. He did not score against Chelsea or Man Utd. Interesting!

He scored 12 goals over the 4 years against the sides which finished in the top 6 and 13 against sides which we relegated. That means in 12 matches against the top sides, he averaged 1 in 4. Against the bottom teams, it was 1 in 1. Against the rest it was 1 in 2 games. Flat-track bully?

He was on the pitch for 11,884 minutes so averaged a goal every 175 minutes, roughly a goal every 2 games. Over the last 30 years the only player with a better record of goals per minutes on the pitch was Gary "I only played for Leicester and Spurs in England" Lineker who scored every 122 mins (30 goals).

Closest after Lukaku are the Yak 192 mins (26 goals) and Stephen Naismith 190 minutes (18 goals). Surprised at the latter one! There are 4 others with a better record of scoring for minutes on the pitch but they scored only 22 between them (Vellios, McBride, Vaughan and Beckford).

The one statistic I have not got is miles travelled over those 68 games but it is believed to be under 1 km which is slightly more per game than the distance to his stereo system so could explain the upcoming court appearance.

Jimmy Vaughan: 161 for 7 goals


Drew Shortis
70 Posted 10/07/2017 at 15:05:17
The season following Lineker's departure, we won the league. I would much prefer six or seven players getting near double figures and us winning games than have one star striker banging in hat-tricks in matches we've already won. Also, having all your eggs in one basket is risky with injuries.

I don't think it would be unreasonable to predict the following kind of levels: Ramirez, Dembele or Giroud 15+, Rooney, Barkley & Sigurdsson 10+, Mirallas, Bolasie & Klaassen 5+, plus a few additional ones from the defenders and other squad players.

Last season, Chelsea scored 85 and Spurs 86. We got 62. If you took my rough calculations above - 2x Strikers = 30, 3x AM = 45, rest of team = 10 and you have similar figures. Combine that with an improved defense and better keeper and things are looking hopeful to pick up the extra points needed.

Of course, this is all hypothetical, but I think it illustrates the importance of having goals from all over, rather than relying primarily on one guy who can have dips in form.

It looks like Sigurdsson and Giroud are looking likely and I would expect one more at centre-back to partner Keane. Chuck in some cover at fullback (left and right) and we have a team that can really challenge.

On Twitter tons of people are saying we're wasting our money like Spurs did after Bale left. I disagree. Spurs bought seven foreigners unproven in the Premier League. We potentially have 5-6 Premier League proven players plus the Ajax captain and a wildcard in Sandro. We've improved in every area of the pitch and I can seeing this group gelling well, especially with a full pre-season to prepare!

Mike Green
71 Posted 10/07/2017 at 15:20:17
Interesting stats, Phil (#69) but I would expect all strikers score more goals against teams lower in the league – which is why they are lower in the league.

My view on Rom is he undoubtedly knows where the net is but doesn't seem to pop up and grab them when you really need them – its the occasion, or the situation rather than the opponent where he doesn't cut it for me. Great players step up whereas he seems to disappear.

Eric Myles
72 Posted 10/07/2017 at 15:29:39
Ernie (#66), but didn't we have the most players scoring goals, at 18?

Now, if each of them got 1 more next season?

Karl Meighan
73 Posted 10/07/2017 at 15:34:29
Rom always done his main job, scoring goals. The main thing now is whether we can replace his goals, it may take more than one striker or we may have to play differently.

The Club has made a big profit; if we spend it wisely, Rom will soon be forgotten, like former players are.

Why not make it a target to finish above Man Utd? The belief is coming back – it's up to the new players to show it... let's make it happen!

Jamie Crowley
74 Posted 10/07/2017 at 15:37:57
"THEY'RE ALL SHHHIIITE LAD!! MOSHIRI'S A NOB 'EAD. KOEMAN'S FUCKED THIS CLUB" (Aug 12th, Everton-Stoke, half-time 0-0)

Hilarious.

I've often thought the same thing.

What will the TW masses make of a 1-3-1 start if something like that happens? Pitchforks and torches?

This season might be the most imperative one to exercise patience.

Bye Rom. I think you're mint. But I also think we'll do just fine without you. I wish you luck, and I wish for you the most important human characteristic / "gift" on the planet:

Humility.

You'll need it when we finish above your new Club this season.

Dave Abrahams
75 Posted 10/07/2017 at 15:42:29
Jamie (#74), I think kindness equals humility, maybe it is even better.
Jamie Crowley
76 Posted 10/07/2017 at 15:47:10
**Jamie hugs Dave in a moving show of kindness and wishes him well**

You're probably right Dave.

Brian Wilkinson
77 Posted 10/07/2017 at 15:57:07
Knock knock.
Jay Wood
78 Posted 10/07/2017 at 16:36:09
Drew @ 70.

"I don't think it would be unreasonable to predict the following kind of levels: Ramirez, Dembele or Giroud 15+, Rooney, Barkley & Sigurdsson 10+, Mirallas, Bolasie & Klassen 5+, plus a few additional ones from the defenders and other squad players."

Two of your 15+ fellahs and one of your 10+ fellahs aren't even at the club and of your 5+ pick, one is a long term injury, another new to the league.

Besides that, I suggest you check out the excellent Everton Results site and the historic Appearance and Goals data. You can scroll between the seasons via a left-right link at the top of the data table.

Link

You might be shocked to discover just how extremely rare it is for Everton to have one, let alone two or more players, hitting double figures for league goals.

So for me, your claims, if not 'unreasonable', are unlikely and more akin to extremely wishful thinking.

Brent Stephens
79 Posted 10/07/2017 at 16:41:48
Phil (#69) – do you expect teams to score more or fewer goals against teams at the bottom? I expect more. And more or fewer against those at the top? I expect fewer.

Maybe there's something out there that shows other strikers of teams in the 7th / 8th positions consistently score better overall and better against the top teams. I honestly don't know.

Brian Wilkinson
80 Posted 10/07/2017 at 16:52:33
He's in the shit at Man Utd already for doing a press conference about his move before Man Utd had announced it, no surprises there he took it on himself before Man Utd could do their PR and make a press exclusive.
Barry Jones
81 Posted 10/07/2017 at 17:04:11
Many people talk about missing Lukaku's goals as if he made them all by himself with no support from the rest of the team. This is untrue and really diminishes the good work that his team mates put in to provide the supply line.

We all know that he is capable of making a goal out of nothing with brute force and power, but a good percentage of his goals were teed up quite nicely for him. With the improvement in all round quality of players in the current squad, I don't see why we won't continue to create more chances, and quite feasibly, tuck away more goals.

Brian Williams
82 Posted 10/07/2017 at 17:17:46
He's officially signed for them now so we should do like some managers do and not talk about players of other clubs. ;-)
Chad Schofield
84 Posted 10/07/2017 at 17:22:40
It was the right time for him to leave really... But he could have been a lot less of a dick about it in the build-up and shown much more respect while he was at the club.

Still, great piece of business.

Mark Taylor
85 Posted 10/07/2017 at 17:27:58
He has been an excellent piece of business for the club and I hope he does as well at Man Utd as the last two Evertonians who left us to go there.
Nick Armitage
86 Posted 10/07/2017 at 17:30:15
It was always going to end with Lukaku, the only thing that leaves a sour taste was his ego. Everyone regrets the one that got away, or the one they let go –but in terms of Everton, if he was half as good as he thinks he is, then we'd be a lot more bothered.
Jay Wood
87 Posted 10/07/2017 at 17:41:14
Barry @ 81.

"Many people talk about missing Lukaku's goals as if he made them all by himself with no support from the rest of the team. This is untrue..."

Hmmm. What is 'untrue' Barry is the claim you make in your statement. In my entire time on TW I have never seen a single poster making the claim you do.

You and others may continue to deny it, but Lukaku's goals will have to be compensated for by other players.

IMO, whilst we have recruited well this summer, the same players who were at the club last season are not going to suddenly step up and become double digit goal scorers. The recruits new to the Premier League are unknowns and nobody can predict with any certainty how they will adapt to the Premier League, let alone boldly state their likely goal return.

For me, now the Lukaku transfer is absolutely confirmed and we have the money in the bank, on the caveat Lukaku's sale has not funded our spending thus far, we now need to get a proven, oven-ready striker in who we can pretty much guarantee a 15-25 goal return each season.

If we recruit such a player, and if 3-4 other players can chip in with considerably better goal returns than has long been the case at Everton, then we can start believing the club can challenge for trophies.

Losing a striker who in his 5 full PL seasons since the age of 19 has returned Premier League goal tallies of 17, 15, 10, 18 and 25 makes that challenge more difficult, not easier.

Dermot Byrne
88 Posted 10/07/2017 at 17:47:25
Love this tweet I saw;

Man Utd's all-time Premier League top scorer: Rooney (183) 🔴⚪️ Everton's all-time Premier League top scorer: Lukaku (68) 🔵⚪️ Swapsies. 🤝

For the niggly, yeah age blah blah blah

Dermot Byrne
91 Posted 10/07/2017 at 18:06:40
Ah Sean. Methinks you see something wrong with someone "poncing about with his new fella slapping each other's dicks before any move has actually been made"

Possibly assault if done "before any move has actually been made" but no evidence of that so an expression of love or maybe just high jinks when the music was loud.

I think 'disrespectful","gobshite" is the more damning assessment.

In the end it boils down to the intention of the poster and how could you interpret this as...

Sorry, I have given myself a headache now.

Phil (Kelsall) Roberts
93 Posted 10/07/2017 at 18:18:55
Brent Stevens (#62). I didn't believe it either and don't.

But not sure they have used my system but I credit Lukaku with bringing in 12 points this year and we were 15 points clear of 8th.

(system is 2 points for scoring winner, 1 for the equaliser so score the 3rd in a 3-1 win and you get nothing. Score the 1st in a 2-1 win and you get 1 point - lousy system but better than nothing).

Lukaku was not a "vital goals" goal scorer. On my system, he had to score 1.6 goals to earn a point. I thought Cottee was the same (which is why I started doing the stats many years ago) but he was 1.09, Graham Sharp 1.12, Timmy Cahill 1.10, Dunc 1.25, Seamus is 0.95 and Rooney was 0.75!! So I am not sure we will miss his goals.

Colin Glassar
94 Posted 10/07/2017 at 18:23:16
I said earlier that I would no longer comment on our former player but I've just seen the pics the Mancs have posted and, how embarrassing!! It looks more like a Victoria's Secret (or Littlewoods) scene than a bloody professional footballer – and I'm not being homophobic.
Amit Vithlani
95 Posted 10/07/2017 at 18:24:30
International breaks will never be the same.

Oh wait, we still have Mirallas.

Andy Tudge
96 Posted 10/07/2017 at 18:28:42
Maybe he will come back in 13 years on a free, confessing that he always wore an Everton thong in bed (whilst flexing his pecs into his mirrored ceiling and having cheeky tug over Brian Oviedo's missus).

John Graham
98 Posted 10/07/2017 at 18:42:51
Thanks Romelu. It's been good to have you here. A big thanks for your goals although you could be a lazy so-and-so.

Wish you all the best at your new club, go and prove to everyone that your one of the best in the world, and continue to score lots of goals against everyone except Everton.

COYB

Stephen Ashton
99 Posted 10/07/2017 at 18:45:40
Brian (#14) – if he scored goals for fun, we would have won the FA Cup.
John Raftery
100 Posted 10/07/2017 at 18:52:19
What a great piece of business it was by the club to buy him for £28m in 2014! I do wonder where we would be if we had opted to sign someone else for less money, such as Bony!
Phil Bellis
101 Posted 10/07/2017 at 18:53:30
I know we had, in reality little choice and no chance we'd play hardball but we've either strengthened the team we'd hope to take or mixed them a bottle

Wait and see....

Brent Stephens
104 Posted 10/07/2017 at 20:11:37
Phil (#93) – sums were never my strong point! Not sure I follow all that (probably that's me, not you).
Drew O'Neall
105 Posted 10/07/2017 at 20:16:54
Good luck Romelu, you're going to need it when you are compared to Ibrahimovic by Man Utd's fans next season.. Ooh hahahaha.. oh my!
Stan Schofield
106 Posted 10/07/2017 at 20:28:59
Phil@93: Going back to my post @58, you cannot simply credit a specific number of points to a particular player (anymore than Tony@57 can say that removing Lukaku's goals wouldn't have changed our final league position).

If you try to consider the effect on Everton's points, or goals, or indeed anything else, of Lukaku not playing, it's impossible to make any conclusion that's valid for the real world. Any conclusion you do make applies only to an imagined world of abstract number manipulation.

Paul Birmingham
107 Posted 10/07/2017 at 20:37:53
Good luck, Rom, EFC has moved on and hopefully upwards. Now's our time... hopefully!
Ian Riley
108 Posted 10/07/2017 at 20:47:16
Thank you and good luck.

Let's all move on.

Lev Vellene
109 Posted 10/07/2017 at 20:53:29
Great goal-scorer for us! Not so good at keeping his eyes open for the Team to do good... So I wish him well in his new pursuit/struggle, and even more so his new manager!

Too bad none of us knew anything about how the world actually worked until after 25...

Am I evil if I hope for EFC to get 4th+ next year, and Man Utd to qualify for the Europa League??? ;D

Brian Williams
110 Posted 10/07/2017 at 20:57:15
Early whispers of a BIG incoming transfer!
Dave Pritchard
111 Posted 10/07/2017 at 21:07:00
How BIG Brian? Don't leave us hanging.
Chris Williams
112 Posted 10/07/2017 at 21:08:06
Not Dzeko is it?
Brian Williams
113 Posted 10/07/2017 at 21:15:24
Sorry Dave. Got told it was a striker already in the premier league. Thought nowt of it but Myers on Twitter has picked up on it. Not a clue who it is but not "who you'd expect" was what was said.

I asked "its not bloody Benteke is it?" and was told "behave yourself" so thankfully not him.

Barry McNally
114 Posted 10/07/2017 at 21:17:59
Aguero would be nice!
Brian Williams
115 Posted 10/07/2017 at 21:19:05
Barry (#114).

Whoo not half!

Frank Wade
116 Posted 10/07/2017 at 21:19:09
Lukaku quote on Sky Sports News: "You could see the fight, determination and spirit in this team during the Europa League Final and I want to be part of that."

I expect we will miss his 'Fight, Determination and Spirit'????

Colin Glassar
117 Posted 10/07/2017 at 21:21:03
It's Ronaldo isn't it?
Dan Nulty
119 Posted 10/07/2017 at 21:25:50
Interesting, we need a striker, not keen on Benteke, bit meh on Giroud but given he has gone to Australia can't see it being him. Hope it isn't Vardy.

Benteke kind of makes sense as I can't think of anyone else but he will end up at £50m which is ridiculous.

Brian Williams
120 Posted 10/07/2017 at 21:27:53
Just got a text to say it's "warming up" on Twitter but have to admit ToffeeWeb is my only step into social media so can't confirm that.
Anthony Millington
121 Posted 10/07/2017 at 21:29:00
I hope it's Batshuayi. Like for like striker for Lukaku and young. Giroud and Vardy would only be decent short term, Benteke would be good but would be a rip off. Bony might be a cheap option but we could ideally do with a better replacement.
Brent Stephens
122 Posted 10/07/2017 at 21:29:07
Brian, it's Lukaku, isn't it! Returning to Goodison Park – "the greatest team and the greatest fans" he's just said on Sky Sports News. Realised his error sooner rather than later. Buy-back clause for £10m. Welcome home, Rom.
Dan Nulty
124 Posted 10/07/2017 at 21:31:32
I know Batshuayi seems to have said he is committed to Chelsea but if they bring in two strikers like is talked about no way he will stay. However, can't see them letting him go with Costa being told to stay away.
Brian Williams
125 Posted 10/07/2017 at 21:32:46
On a serious note I was really hoping we'd go for Celtic's Dembele. I think he'd be sensational for us.
Brian Williams
126 Posted 10/07/2017 at 21:51:00
https://royalbluemersey.sbnation.com/2017/7/10/15948556/alan-myers-links-everton-dzeko-aguero-batshuayi-benteke-ibrahimovic-big-name-premier-league-striker
Si Cooper
127 Posted 10/07/2017 at 21:55:14
When you say BIG you don't mean tall do you Brian? I mean Andy Carroll and Peter Crouch are strikers already playing in the Premier League. I really hate these non-specific rumours!!!
Colin Glassar
128 Posted 10/07/2017 at 22:06:53
It's either Benteke, Aguero, Kane, Dzeko, Batsuyahi, Ronaldo, Bale, Morata, James or Bony isn't it?
Dave Pritchard
129 Posted 10/07/2017 at 22:10:20
Didn't realise Dzeko scored so many goals (33?) in Italy last season. Interesting if he is the one we're after.
Brian Williams
130 Posted 10/07/2017 at 22:18:10
Col. Yeh!
Brian Williams
131 Posted 10/07/2017 at 22:20:24
Sorry Si I shoulda kept schtum but this is like Christmas as a kid and I'm as excited as everyone else. It wasn't big physically mate.
Brian Williams
132 Posted 10/07/2017 at 22:23:09
Personally, and this is purely a guess, I reckon it could be Batshuayi.
Sam Hoare
133 Posted 10/07/2017 at 22:36:49
I hope so Brian. He fits the bill for me. Mobile, strong and has a pretty excellent scoring rate.
Ste Traverse
134 Posted 10/07/2017 at 22:39:56
Kind words from Rom.

I'm not going to wish him all the best, he has gone to the Mancs after all, but he did the business for us on the pitch and it's probably best he departs EFC on decent terms.

Sean Patton
136 Posted 10/07/2017 at 23:14:30
No fee confirmed by either club so we have no idea if it's a good deal or not – very strange, that.
Keith Monaghan
137 Posted 10/07/2017 at 23:28:52
In spite of his limitations, Rom had a very positive effect on our team & club. Good luck in the future Rom, but hope you win little at Man Utd.

In spite of some of the pathetic comments on here which are a disgrace to Everton FC (eg, Gareth @ 135 above) you did a lot for us in your 4 seasons with us and achieved more for this club than a certain returning Wayne Rooney ever has done or will do.

Anthony Dwyer
138 Posted 10/07/2017 at 23:35:17
Lukaku's back-handed comments mean fuck all as far as I'm concerned.

He had his chance to leave dignified but instead he spoke shit in the press as often as he got the chance.

It was simple for him really, he could simply have said nothing, but when quizzed just said he wouldn't comment to them and his agent would decide his future.

Doing the above he would have left with everyone's approval.

Jim Hardin
140 Posted 10/07/2017 at 00:30:56
Brian,

"Early whispers of a BIG incoming transfer!"

Why the heck do we want Crouch? Or did you mean we are signing Fat Ronaldo to go with our other new (old) signing?

Si Cooper
141 Posted 11/07/2017 at 00:39:54
Brian, I was just being mischievous and throwing in some names that we (I am assuming) definitely wouldn't be happy with. I checked out the Alan Myers tweets and he seems to say the target isn't English, so that rules out the duo I mentioned.
Brian Williams
143 Posted 11/07/2017 at 00:48:03
Si. I thought that but when I read it again I read it that he was saying "no" to someone asking if it was Costa. Could be wrong mind 'cause Twitter's garbled from what I can see.
Will Mabon
144 Posted 11/07/2017 at 00:52:53
Aguero?
Si Cooper
145 Posted 11/07/2017 at 01:14:41
Brian, we'll just have to wait and see then, I suppose, and not rule out anybody just yet.

I'm prepared to wait and see how pretty much anyone actually performs for us before I make a firm judgement. Can't say I've seen a huge amount of them but from what I have seen I am a little surprised by the apparent excitement the likes of Giroud, Redmond, Bertrand and Smalling have generated during the current transfer window.

I'm not entirely sold on Sigurdsson yet either, as I can't help shake off the feeling that if he was as clinical as some say then he would already be somewhere other than Swansea.

Then again, I can remember how pleasantly surprised I was by the likes of Paul Power and Richard Gough so I am prepared to be open-minded.

Brian Williams
146 Posted 11/07/2017 at 01:23:49
Same here Si. Just cannot wait for that first home game against Stoke mind, may have already had an away day in Europe before that too!

Just been trawling through NewsNow for anything new only to get annoyed by talk of us breaking into the top six.

It has to be top four I reckon. I think with the signings we've made and the reported three to come Champions League qualification should be our minimum aim!

Alan J Thompson
148 Posted 11/07/2017 at 06:53:31
Any news from Walshie in Italy or is Ibrahimovic out of contract? We do have a history with that club.
Anthony Millington
149 Posted 11/07/2017 at 07:05:54
Realistically, I can't see us breaking into the top four. We've made some good signings yes but let's not forget we're losing some of our best attacking players in Lukaku and Deulofeu with Bolasie still injured and possibly Barkley leaving. We have a good team but not top 4 level.

We only have an okay standard of wingers in Lennon, Mirallas and Lookman and okay standard of fullbacks with Holgate and Baines with Coleman injured plus we have the added burden of the Europa League.

People are getting carried away and expecting too much when in reality our team was quite average without Lukaku and Barkley last season and these signings are needed just to maintain our top 7 position whilst we rebuild and have the extra European games but it will take time.

Kim Vivian
151 Posted 11/07/2017 at 09:55:39
Late in the thread and almost as a post script to Rom because he is history now but Brent (#62), Phil (#93)...

Rather unscientifically compared to you, Phil, but I have done my own exercise re the points impact of Rom's goals simply by removing those from all of the results last season and looked to see what the adjusted scores would have been.

He scored in 17 games. In 12 of those it made no difference because we either lost or won by more than his contribution (goals-wise). In two games he earned us a draw from a potential loss so 2 points there. In two games he earned us a win from a draw so 2 points each of those games (total 6 so far), and in just one (Bournemouth) we would have lost but for his contribution (4 goals) adding another 3 points. So I get a total of just 9 extra points off the back of his goals.

I fully understand that this is pure conjecture and a flawed argument because we do not know what the run of the games would have been without those goals, and no allowance for assists or any other impact on the games, but simply based on those results/stats we would have comfortably still been 7th without the points earned from Lukaku's goals.

I hope that going forward into the new season we are going to see more 'crucial' scoring off the back of a renewed urgency that I believe is being introduced to our set up with the mental attitude of our signings. We seem to be bringing in some real fight and competitiveness to our make up this window, and long may it continue with a suitably combative striker. Of those being mentioned I lean towards Dzeko and Giroud, Dembele, Benteke in that order.

Stan Schofield
152 Posted 11/07/2017 at 10:50:32
Kim, what Phil did @93 is numerical, but not really 'scientific', and I believe flawed as I pointed out @106. I believe your argument is also flawed for the same reasons.
Kim Vivian
153 Posted 11/07/2017 at 11:08:42
Indeed, Stan – that's why I conceded it was a flawed argument. And someone else would have been there scoring goals in any case, so as I say – all conjecture but it does make 'his' goals look less important.

But thanks for the impact on your valuation, Rom. We owe you for that at least.

Tony J Williams
154 Posted 11/07/2017 at 12:27:01
Prove it wrong then Stan...

Kim has fleshed out his point (am I allowed to say that or will I risk being called homophobic again? FFS)

As I stated, it was an interesting stat, didn't say I believed it, just that it was interesting. Impossible to prove either way

Brent Stephens
155 Posted 11/07/2017 at 12:33:43
Kim (#151). Yes an interesting activity. Going to play it at Xmas after Xmas lunch!
Stan Schofield
156 Posted 11/07/2017 at 13:04:14
Kim, because it's flawed, your reasoning does not make his goals look 'less important'.
Stan Schofield
157 Posted 11/07/2017 at 13:06:11
Tony, some things are self-evident, not requiring 'proof'. This is one of them. You either get it or you don't.
Kim Vivian
158 Posted 11/07/2017 at 13:59:13
Stan – 14 of his 25 goals were in games where they (on their own) made no difference.

Of course, all goals are important, but I guess the point I am making is that in 70% of the games in which he scored, because his goals made no difference to the result, the importance or 'significance' of those goals was negligible in my view. In the whole season, in only 5 matches (just 13% of the season total) did his goals affect the result to the benefit of Everton. Those were his more significant goals.

It is in the light of those statistics that I do not believe Rom is so much the indispensable asset that many worry about. That is all I am saying.

I do believe he has the potential to go on and achieve some level of greatness, and tbh I would have liked that to have been with us, but, boy, does he need to improve certain aspects of his game.

Will Mabon
159 Posted 11/07/2017 at 14:08:37
Until we have (for now) unimaginable computational power and the ability to best use it, many of these stats only go so far beyond their simple face value, for further interpretation.

The permutations are infinite. For example: Lukaku, due to reputation, pace, field positioning, recent scoring history, other players in the team on the day, tactics and more... occupies the attention of central defenders to a variable extent that limits the attacking involvement of those defenders, such that – they are less likely to score from a corner or set piece. A goal that may affect the points outcome of the game.

From the first step of interpretation after the factual values, it all becomes vague. That's why people have a "Feeling" about which horse will win a race. Some are actually strangely successful at this, but try defining how or why.

Will Mabon
160 Posted 11/07/2017 at 14:15:10
I think you're in the groove best placed it do it Kim, try the exercise with our post-Lineker team, when the goals were more widely distributed, across several players (and Lineker previously, for that matter).

If you model it the same by player, I suspect you'll get a similar overall result. There may be blips but over several seasons or a player's career, all roads will lead to Rome.

Stan Schofield
161 Posted 11/07/2017 at 14:18:22
Kim, I agree that Rom is not indispensable, no player ever is. We'll manage and prosper without him, to be sure.

But you don't need to try and demonstrate what you're saying with an analysis that is flawed. He's not indispensable, yes, but trying go to make conclusions on his significance last season, no.

Kim Vivian
162 Posted 11/07/2017 at 14:32:48
I managed to wander away from the point in my original post about the simplicity of my argument and ignoring the broader impact and influence, so I do concur with you, Will.

I did consider a similar exercise for the previous couple of seasons out of interest but haven't been arsed tbh but it was the regular reference to 'where are 25 goals going to come from' when Rom's gone.

And I agree Stan – we will definitely be okay. I think your trying to read more in to my analysis than I intend.

Stan Schofield
163 Posted 11/07/2017 at 14:38:15
Will@159: Interesting points. I'd go further, and say, massive computing power might be of no help whatsoever in such problems.

There are phenomena which involve interactions of variables in ways that we can call 'non-linear', such that a very small change in one parameter can effect very large changes in our conclusions relating to these phenomena. Such 'non-linear' systems are inherently unpredictable, not because of the large number of interactions between the variables, but because of the non-linearity itself. In this sense, systems with a small number of variables can be unpredictable and intractable if they are non-linear.

Computing power enables us to do calculations for such systems, even with large numbers of variables, but those calculations may not reflect reality accurately. The most successful applications of modelling of any systems in the real world are where the phenomena are linear, such that small changes in variables do not have the large effect, and unpredictability, mentioned above.

The non-linear nature of some phenomena is why the weather is difficult to predict, and impossible beyond small time scales, even with the Met Office's massive computing power. And why the stock market is largely unpredictable, etc.

So even with infinite computing power, I'd still say it's not feasible to make conclusions on the significance of Lukaku's goals.

The roots of chaos theory being discussed on ToffeeWeb!

Will Mabon
164 Posted 11/07/2017 at 15:09:46
I hear what you're saying, Stan, and agree mostly, for today at least! The definition of linearity, or categories of interpretation of it, can and will be "Flexible" and modified, dependent on intent, levels of accuracy needed, how and far fast we go from this point right now, and on. It goes on forever, and it will. Might even get dangerous!

You're right there can be no absolute conclusions re. players, but we'll get a whole measure closer in time.

Incidentally and right off topic:

"The non-linear nature of some phenomena is why the weather is difficult to predict, and impossible beyond small time scales, even with the Met Office's massive computing power."

My thoughts come under some people's interpretation of conspiracy theory so I'm not expanding, but have you noticed how weather forecasting is often less accurate as time passes? Goes worse with every system upgrade.

Comparing the many different types of aviation forecasts and the much higher accuracy (noticed for years), somethin' ain't right...


Stan Schofield
165 Posted 11/07/2017 at 15:23:51
Will, interesting point about the weather.

Even with infinite computer power, weather forecasting is inherently unpredictable, uncertain over short time scales, impossible over long time scales. Given this, although the Met Office continually upgrade their computers, the level of 'predictability' of the weather may still not have any improvement commensurate with those upgrades, indeed any improvement at all. Potentially embarrassing if part of their case for upgrade is improved predictability. They appear to handle the problem of predictability by assigning chances to different weather possibilities, thereby hedging their bets.

When it comes to attempting to predict the climate, the same issues apply, only perhaps worse still, because the time scales are longer. This is why I'm sceptical of climate modelling, because of it's inherent unpredictability, and possibly chaotic behaviour.

Regarding the aviation forecasts, don't know much about them, but aren't they on fairly short timescales?

Michael Penley
166 Posted 11/07/2017 at 15:27:23
Stan – The first thing you're taught in a climate science class is that weather (short term patterns) is relatively unpredictable, and climate (long term patterns) isn't.

Think of it like throwing a dice. If you want to predict what number will come up on the next roll, you have a 1-in-6 chance of guessing correctly. But if you roll the dice 600 times, you know that numbers 1-6 will come up around 100 times each.

Stan Schofield
167 Posted 11/07/2017 at 15:38:31
Michael, yes, but I suppose it depends on what you mean by long term and short term. For weather forecasting, short term over a day or so is relatively accurate, but not over many days. You can say it will be broadly warmer in the summer than the winter, but that's because of a regular cycle of the earth. But it's difficult or impossible to say whether it will rain on 25th June next year.

Long-term climate predictions make use of very complex mathematical models and powerful computers, not a simple approach, and subject to large uncertainties due to the type of phenomena mentioned before. If they could rely on simpler methods, maybe they would?

Brian Williams
168 Posted 11/07/2017 at 15:39:41
Damn. Where's ToffeeWeb gone?

Stan, I have to disagree. It WILL rain on the 25th of June next year.

Stan Schofield
169 Posted 11/07/2017 at 15:41:09
Anyway, you can tell that Lukaku has well and truly gone. Previously, a lot of threads on other subjects would turn into Lukaku threads. This is a Lukaku thread, and we're talking about the weather!!!
Stan Schofield
170 Posted 11/07/2017 at 15:45:24
Michael, that's true of an unweighted dice thrown randomly. But the stuff we're talking about isn't necessarily like that. We're talking about systems with memory and feedback, like a game of football.
Brian Williams
171 Posted 11/07/2017 at 15:45:37
Some people are already referring to him as OFS.
Stan Schofield
172 Posted 11/07/2017 at 15:48:15
Brian, you're right about that rain.
Brian Williams
173 Posted 11/07/2017 at 15:50:13
Not often I'm right, Stan.
Michael Penley
174 Posted 11/07/2017 at 15:58:27
Stan - I wasn't talking about football. I was replying to your posts about the weather.
Stan Schofield
175 Posted 11/07/2017 at 16:07:07
Michael, yes, I know, and the dice analogy isn't a good one for the weather, because the time progression of weather isn't like the sequential throws of a dice. Similarly, football games are complicated, like the weather.
Daniel Lim
176 Posted 11/07/2017 at 16:14:47
Great observation, Stan (#169).

Weather is more interesting than Romelu Lukaku now.

Michael Penley
177 Posted 11/07/2017 at 16:20:38
Stan, an analogy doesn't require the phenomena to be exactly the same. The point is that patterns become clearer as more data becomes available over longer time periods. Therefore, predictions do also.
Stan Schofield
178 Posted 11/07/2017 at 17:15:52
Michael, I agree with you, with the caveat that patterns become clearer for some phenomena, but not all. For example, I think a better dice analogy for complicated and unpredictable phenomena would be a dice whose weighting for the next throw is altered in an unknown non-random way by the previous throw and its outcome. You could easily set up a mathematical model of that, which would show a sequence of outcomes that shows no discernible pattern, a pattern that is chaotic.
Colin Malone
179 Posted 11/07/2017 at 17:29:06
I'm sad that we might not see Ross Barkley play with movement up front with Sandro and Rooney instead of the statue named Lukaku.
Will Mabon
180 Posted 11/07/2017 at 21:43:46
We British and the weather...

Stan, yes, short term for flying, and less difficult than long term. Basically daily. Some are local and smaller area forecasts, too. The difference in accuracy though is marked. The system is obviously there to do it, but the quality doesn't always seem to make it through into general forecasts.

I agree about the climate. I'm beyond cool rational discussion about that by now so will just repeat your word, sceptical.

Will Mabon
181 Posted 11/07/2017 at 21:46:43
"I'm sad that we might not see Ross Barkley play with movement up front with Sandro and Rooney instead of the statue named Lukaku. "

I wonder if Rooney will mediate? Still very quiet on the Barkley front.

Jim Hardin
182 Posted 11/07/2017 at 22:50:43
Sure Colin,

Ross did so well playing with movement up front for England didn't he? Ooops! Looks like even Southgate recognizes that it isn't the players around Ross, it is Ross that is the problem.

Colin Malone
183 Posted 12/07/2017 at 18:38:53
Jim.

Koeman has improved Ross Barkley's stamina and positional play tenfold. He has great vision and guile for players running off the ball, eg, Tom Davies, and I have no doubt whatsoever that we could see better things from Ross without a out-and-out lazy, greedy centre-forward.

Clive Mitchell
184 Posted 12/07/2017 at 20:09:07
Carl (#45) – Giroud wouldn't have scored most of Rom's goals, he'd have been trimming his beard or gelling his hair for quite a few of the ones he'd have been capable of getting.

I don't wish Rom ill, just continuous minor misfortune, but it amazes me that so many on here don't acknowledge how good he is. In 10 years, he'll have proved to have been better than Drogba. He's bang on course to do that already.

Colin Grierson
185 Posted 12/07/2017 at 23:01:56
I don't care how good he willbe. They come and they go; some are legends, some just record breakers.

I don't wish him I'll but I don't hope for his success. I personally can't see the emperor's suit that everyone else sees. I will applaud him when he comes back but hope he has one of his many days off.

I like to be excited and that was rare with Rom. I got bored of it being the team's fault too. I won't mourn his leaving, I'll celebrate the dawn of a new era instead.

Bobby Angwin
186 Posted 13/07/2017 at 23:50:36
I know he'll be a failure for Man Utd. The wrong player in the wrong team with the wrong manager.

Mourinho sets his teams up to be defensive first, attack second. Lukaku has the touch of a rapist. How on God's Earth is he going to hold the ball up long enough to actually join in with any attacking play?

The simple answer is that after about 5 games it will be apparent that they've bought a dud and then Adios, Mourinho, you miserable git. 😁

Pete Laffey
187 Posted 15/07/2017 at 16:07:57

What is with ex-reds trying to have a pop at us the way we have went about our business to date (so far positive to me so far)

Just been reading 'Football 365' apparently it's in the Star as well, a column from that former World Class goalkeeper! David James.

Stating that the Koeman and the club have basically lied to our new signings, stating that they only basically come on the promise if Lukaku was staying.

Why don't they just butt out and keep an eye on their own former clubs busy transfer business, NOT!

Tim Locke
188 Posted 16/07/2017 at 15:59:45
With all good players, I have to say Thank You for the years you gave us. Under Bobby Brown Shoes, you kept us in the Premier League. Under Koeman, you showed how good we could become.

Sandro will prove a better all-round addition, not sure he will score as many but think his presence will create the space for others to shine, including one Mr Rooney.

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