What would it take for Europe?

by   |   12/01/2020  13 Comments  [Jump to last]

What would it take for us to get into Europe?

I tend to be a fan who asks "What if?" ... What if Baines had taken the first penalty versus Leicester; what if we hadn't had terrible VAR decisions; what if...

Okay, put aside the reality of the season so far and let's look at what it would take to qualify for Europe next season by any means, which seems to be an aim that is gaining traction. This is more a little fun exercise. Let's hear thoughts on how many points we would need and what people think we could actually get to achieve this.

If you look at recent seasons, 7th has seen qualification if all the stars align with FA Cup Winners etc... To achieve this, 57 & 54 points have got you into the qualifying stages of the Europa League. Prior to this, it was us at 61 points and there or thereabouts in previous seasons.

So, looking at best-case scenario, we would need another 26 points from the remaining 48 available for us to hit 54. Using my blue-tinted spectacles, I tally 24; however, if we improve as we have done, then, using our recent form as a guide, 14 points from 7 games, with 16 games to go could see us hit the giddy heights of another 32 points. That would give us 60 — which still wouldn't guarantee anything above 7th, though if you go back to the beginning of December, I'm sure most would be happy to take 40 points.

In my mind, for what it's worth, I have us winning 24 points with tops of 32, so see us getting 28, putting us at 56; that puts us there or thereabouts for a Europa League place.

This article is not intended to be a detailed analysis, more a bit of fun. Maybe we can revisit this at the end of the season and see who is closest? What if we get to 54 points?

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Reader Comments (13)

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Paul Birmingham
1 Posted 12/01/2020 at 20:24:23
Len, after this season, who knows, but I reckon. Starting at West Ham,if we win the next 4 games, gain momentum, who knows.

I’d like to think Carlo and his coaching and charisma, will rub off on the squad each passing day, and the team playimproves.

Let’s forget the RS, they talk for themselves and very one else, and focus on what EFC, can aim for, but we will need results to go for us, and stay injury free, as we are down to the bare bones of the squad.

Mike Galley
2 Posted 12/01/2020 at 20:38:11
Don't go there!!!! I carried out a similar exercise during the nightmare of the 85/86 season with about 15 games left. I calculated our and the RS points total for the season and even gave them 3 points for the Anfield Ratcliffe derby!!!
I had us top by two points.
Evertonians of a certain vintage don't need reminding how that season panned out.
Lets just see how the rest of the season pans out and hope that Carlo can make some immediate improvements. I've a feeling we'll end up about where we are now, but obviously hope to be proven wrong.
Kunal Desai
3 Posted 12/01/2020 at 21:41:42
54 points, our points total of last season gets us 7th, maybe even 6th this season. Mad that.
John Zapa
4 Posted 13/01/2020 at 09:44:48
A couple of season defining signing that can galvanise the team/fans/club. A pair of similar quality and impact as Vidic/Evra did for Manchester United and Coutinho/Sturridge did for Liverpool some years back, all signed in a January window, for very low and reasonable prices. If such quality players could be brought in, everything is still to play for this season. I wouldn't hold my breath with Brands track record
Clive Rogers
5 Posted 13/01/2020 at 10:47:50
We still need a striker and a box to box midfielder who can chip in with goals. I was disappointed with DCL on Saturday. He doesn’t threaten the goal enough with shots and missed when one on one with the goalkeeper.
Colin Glassar
6 Posted 13/01/2020 at 11:08:08
MF needs strengthening. I’m happy pushing Holgate in as a defensive MF player but we need a player who can dictate the rhythm of the game. If we can’t get one until the summer then Steven Nzonzi would be good as a short term solution.
Derek Thomas
7 Posted 13/01/2020 at 12:09:20
We're not and we won't be ready to start in july and then there's the Euros.
Forget it, It'll cause more problems than rewards. Away piss ups are ace obviously, and Goodison nights are the best. But I think its a season too soon.
Steve Ferns
8 Posted 13/01/2020 at 12:11:45
Len, I shall submit an article to Lyndon for his consideration tonight, after I do some fact checking.

Basically, it shows that Everton are actually on course to finish ABOVE Spurs. We are in a tight race for 6th, and on course for 52 points. Man Utd are on course to wrap 5th up pretty easily, but Spurs and Arsenal are in trouble, Wolves are on course to get 6th on 54, Arsenal 7th, Everton 8th, Spurs 9th.

Spurs have a lot of tough games left. Of our best results from last season, only the Man Utd 4-0 and Liverpool 0-0 are still to be played. There's also a few poor results from last season to reverse and so 55 or more points is certainly doable, and that factors in difficult away games.

Andrew James
9 Posted 13/01/2020 at 14:41:19
We must aim high so go for it and then deal with the Europa should we be in it.

Last time there was no plan for it. We had a massive squad but no distinctive style or set of players to be dedicated to it. Koeman just chopped and changed, the players were like strangers and, like our league form, we were hopeless.

Ancelotti will know how to manage it if we are in the Europa League qualifications in July and, more importantly, he will know how to win it.

Fran Mitchell
10 Posted 13/01/2020 at 14:55:39
The Premier League this season is defined by inconsistency, and to be honest, quite low quality.

The fact that Liverpool can win all but 1 game is testament to that.

Clubs like Southampton and Watford looked like lost causes, and boom, a month passes by and they're winning games and climbing the table.

We are just a couple of points of Spurs, and I'm sure Spurs will still consider themselves candidates for Champions League qualification.

Leicester were hyped as title contenders, but look as if a drop in form is hitting them in the second half of the season.

So anything is possible still for this team. I just hope we take it one game at a time.

Richarlison to end the season in top form, and hopefully the signing of another wide man to replace Walcott (Everton soares please). I'd also like Bowen from Hull, to give us further options and competition in the wide positions.
.an

And of course a central midfielder to partner Davies.

Francis van Lierop
11 Posted 13/01/2020 at 15:22:01
Aim high, and who know's.
We do needs strengthening in midfield, as stated earlier.
Mike Allison
12 Posted 16/01/2020 at 20:09:18
It won’t take much - a Moyes/Koeman/Allardyce-esque run of grinding out home results and nicking the odd away win.

If we’d beaten Norwich and Sheff United at home we’d be in a European place right now.

Paul Ellam
13 Posted 18/01/2020 at 14:51:05
In a season of amazing inconsistency (from most teams) we have every chance of getting the "magical" 7th spot which will probably be enough to qualify for European togger next season.
I still think we need some bodies in (striker, winger) but it has to be our aim - especially after the FA Cup debacle!
I say it every season but I really hope Ancelotti pushes the Board to compete seriously in the cups. They are our best chance of silverware and we should try much harder to win them until a time comes when we can compete at the top of the league again.
Our club should be in Europe EVERY season.

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