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Don Alexander
1 Posted 28/12/2019 at 18:50:56
Another very thought provoking piece Paul. Thanks.

I'm still somewhat bemused by restricting Ancelotti to working with tools he's not necessarily skilled with rather than providing a few better tools than he has, thereby enabling him to achieve what his reputation is based on as a winner.

I'm also, as a bloke who worries about going into the red, perplexed as to how Mr Moshiri is piling money into our club to an extent beyond several owners of other clubs who are reportedly significantly more wealthy than him. Question; do magic money trees originate from Monaco?

Alan Smith
2 Posted 28/12/2019 at 18:54:17
Won't USM just sponsor something?

And as for costs, there's about six or seven high earners whose contracts will end or they will be sold.

Income will also be up.

Stan Schofield
3 Posted 28/12/2019 at 19:09:12
It's obvious he needs to work with the current squad and get improvements based on that. Then, he can take it from there regarding potential further signings.
Julian Wait
4 Posted 28/12/2019 at 19:21:44
A cup run wouldn't hurt 😉 but if I recall correctly the money for even winning the cup pales against the revenue increases for improved League position. so climbing the league table is very important for the 3 R's Revenue, Reputation, and Recruitment
John Keating
5 Posted 28/12/2019 at 19:28:58
Fully agree with Stan
He has to work with and tweak the present squad and hope we can maintain this present good run.
Get rid of some deadwood in January and the Summer then look at what we can do at that time.

No doubt we and Ancelotti are going to have a number of setbacks during the rest of this season but having such a knowledgeable manager now in place will see us safe in mid/upper table.

Barry McNally
6 Posted 28/12/2019 at 19:40:05
Paul, excellent article.

Thanks to you and regular contributors throughout the year, your efforts are really appreciated. Keep up the good work.

NSNO

Dennis Ng
7 Posted 28/12/2019 at 19:41:22
John 5, from his comments (however few) across many reports, it seems to be he is focused on ridding deadwood first, as he should, while bolstering areas that are tactically more challenging for him (and it's not the striker position). Additionally, it seems he is not going to spend big, at least not the astronomical wholesale changes people think he is accustomed to as league champions across Europe. It will be fun to see what he does this Jan. I hope we get our business done early this time round.

Julian 4, other than his preference for cups where his tactical nuance can rule the day, I think he also wants the cup as a statement for his resume. I can't imagine a high profile manager as him would take a trophyless season as anything but a failure, a high bar we all would love to aim at. Additionally, it would be good for morale too. Winning is winning. Of course, as a fan of his for so long, righting our ship is more important although that shiny cup doesn't hurt.

Jerome Shields
8 Posted 28/12/2019 at 20:09:53
Excellent article. In my opinion Ancelotti thinks he can progress Everton with the existing squad, with selected forays into the transfer market.

I think he has already assessed Everton, before taking the Managers job. Brands will continue try to reduce the wages bill and move on deadwood.

Barry Rathbone
9 Posted 28/12/2019 at 20:24:20
If Carlo doesn't make wholesale changes to this squad in the upcoming 2 windows he's in big trouble the appetite for mid table mediocrity via an elite manager is even less than with a crap manager.

Whatever the legal financial shackles are a way must be found tinkering around the edges is what drove us down this non-entity road in the first place.

Delusional to think otherwise

Brian Williams
10 Posted 28/12/2019 at 20:25:35
Barry, who's your dealer?
Ryan Holroyd
11 Posted 28/12/2019 at 20:32:43
I think Ancelotti will believe he can get more out of this squad with superior coaching and better tactics. This plus a few key additions can easily see us in at least the Europa league.
Jamie Evans
12 Posted 28/12/2019 at 22:01:23
Barry Rathbone, just say no.
Dale Rose
13 Posted 28/12/2019 at 22:16:41
Really interesting. Gave me a very different view of the operation of the club.
Andrew Keatley
14 Posted 28/12/2019 at 22:28:10
Hard to know which of our players would command a significant transfer fee. The only one who I think would comfortably command a fee north of £50 million is Richarlison. I think Carlo might need to mend and make do.
Stan Schofield
15 Posted 28/12/2019 at 22:45:34
Andrew@14: Dear me, we get a top manager and there's still a mentality of being happy that Everton sell our best players who are yet to reach their peak. Policy of a mediocre club. If we're going to the top, we don't do that anymore.
Ian Riley
16 Posted 28/12/2019 at 23:19:04
The manager was brought in to stop the club heading to the championship. He has proven in two games we have more to offer if coached better. We have top players in the team. I would leave the January transfer window alone. Top four is beyond us and we will pay inflated prices in January. Get some players off the payroll.

I am amazed we have spent what we have since the owner has taken over. Season tickets have remained the same prices and the stadium capacity has not increased. The new stadium is crucial to be able to sustain players salaries and fees.

I agree the squad will need triming down as we have average players on large salaries. Selling top players to make a profit will be pointless if progress is to be made. Ancelotti will take us forward but will need funds to do so. Money will be found. Football is like no other business.

Don Alexander
17 Posted 28/12/2019 at 23:41:13
Barry (#9), I agree with you. However the financial aspects are managed by Moshiri there seems to me to be little point in appointing CA if Moshiri doesn't enable him to purchase just a few expensive, classy players.

Moshiri's much vaunted three years project is now provably laughable largely on account of the managers he personally, we're told, pursued. He's now appointed a top class winning manager. Why would anyone making such an appointment then deny the man the tools to do what he's famous for doing, and that's also precisely the much vaunted aim of Moshiri we're told?

Anything less than full financial support will to me reek of Kenwright and his never-ending dissolution of the club as a viable contender for trophies whilst he, Kenwright or now Moshiri, perpetuate the fans' misery as the one/two of them pursue their own interests in terms of their own bank accounts, and fuck the fans/supporters.

Mark Andersson
18 Posted 28/12/2019 at 00:15:00
Very intersting and sobering read Tony...

Maybe Carlos remit is simply to keep us stable for the next few years until were in the new ground. At best we may fluke a Lesister city but tgars highly unlikely..

Its going to take a small miracle to break into the top 4 over the next few seasons...

We will still be a selling club simply because players heads will be turned if they become good enough for the top clubs..

Carlo might attract a higher calibre of plyers but it will still cost a lot if dosh.

Shame the red shite are going from strength to strength whlie we still yoyo in mid table.

However as Carlo rightly says anything is possible in footballkeep tge faith ciz thats all we have...

Andrew Keatley
19 Posted 29/12/2019 at 00:28:52
Stan (15) - Dear me, I post something on ToffeeWeb and someone wilfully puts up a straw man. Nowhere in my post did I display "a mentality of being happy that Everton sell our best players who are yet to reach their peak." I just commented on the fact that very few of our players are likely to command a major fee, and that in the proposed absence of any major transfer funds (did you read Paul the Esk's article above?) it might mean Ancelotti will be forced to work with our existing squad.

Also - being aware of the possibility of something is not the same as being happy about something.

Jerome Shields
20 Posted 29/12/2019 at 00:48:47
I don't agree with selling top players.

I think the problem with Everton has been that they did not spend enough money getting a top manager. What they did get was cheapo Manager who spent big money on average players or hadn't the ability to utilise a purchased player. The selection of Koeman was the exception , being plain stupid having not researched his recird.

Derek Thomas
21 Posted 29/12/2019 at 01:18:32
Ans. One game at a time! (will read later)
Clark Hughes
22 Posted 29/12/2019 at 01:28:28
Slow, steady progress is fine by me. The difference Ancelotti has done in making players that seemed average looking much more than that has been a real eye-opener for me – top managers are just essential if you want to win and keep winning.
Alan J Thompson
23 Posted 29/12/2019 at 04:12:02
I suppose it depends on what Mr Ancellotti sees as his priorities playerwise.

Would he be happy with the rise of Holgate answering any questions on the number and quality of central defenders and similarly with Richarlison, DCL and Kean as strikers. Can Baines continue as cover for another season and would Kenny and Coleman be sufficient if Sidibe was not signed permanently. I think that he must bring in one or two players into midfield particularly a playmaker whether Gomes comes back fully fit or not.

Then there is the question of raising income. If any ground costs, EitC, the Academy and Women's football are eliminated there may be other ways of raising money other than selling players albeit there will always be some that are moved on other than for necessary monetary reasons. Given that our newly appointed manager may raise our profile would any of our sponsors consider paying upfront for extended rights? This then increases the need to qualify for those European cash cow competitions as even for allowing for spreading transfer costs over the length of a players contracts we are not likely to improve any playing areas unless top dollar is paid even if Mr Brands uncovers some lesser known young players.

Can somebody explain how the figure of 105M was arrived at and if there is any likelihood of this figure changing?

Matt Traynor
24 Posted 29/12/2019 at 05:47:41
There's possibilities of using creative accounting around BMD to blur the boundaries, although it's not a route to success. Two examples spring to mind:

1) Man City tried to book expenditure of almost £1bn to their development of facilities around the Etihad, academies, other community projects etc. and were rightly told to try again.

2) Our loveable neighbours booked over £100m to their Stanley Park project, without even a spade going into the ground, and that was deemed to be "allowable expenses".

John Zapa
25 Posted 29/12/2019 at 07:26:57
Regarding all this discussion, there is a very important point which I believe will severely restrict the clubs ability to spend big in the next couple transfer windows, the wages to turnover ratio, which as of the end of last season, was approximately 77%. This is one of the highest in the league. There is not much scope to sign more new players on big wages without something changing.

There are 3 players from the 1st team squad whose contracts end this season, Baines, Martina and Niasse, with a total wages of approximately £155,000 paid between the 3 of them according to spotrac.com. Baines probably will extend for another year, possibly at reduced terms meaning around £100,000 will be available. The squad will still need a new defender to replace Zuma/Jags and a new striker.

Ancelotti can get away with a defender who can be 3rd/4th choice if Holgate continues to improve, but a top level striker is an absolute necessity. Funding these positions in addition to any other positions in the squad can cost anything from 0 upwards depending on Brands ingenuity in the transfer market, however the club can still expect to pay atleast market wages for the players they sign, which leads to the point that the club wages will rise again and the ratio with turnover further increased.

The other ways the club can deal with this unsustainable problem is by raising revenue, something they have been unable/unwilling to do recently. Raising ticket prices or adding significant sponsorship money are other ways, but don't seem likely.

As such, I cant see the club spending large amounts, because of the wages involved and the potential breach of fair play rules.

Tom Dodds
26 Posted 29/12/2019 at 08:00:10
I think a grey area in all of this is the ‘outside’ influence of a certain Mr.Usmanov.

I firmly believe personally (like a fair few others) that he is feeding the club in many different ways from outside in.

From what we can gather,the stadium funding still hasn’t been firmly established in that we haven’t accepted the council’s offer of funding, we have not accepted the Chinese bank funding as far as i’m aware,
so who is getting their hand down ??

Small signs can point to bigger pictures, and it is none more noticeable than Megafon (Usmanov),have started ‘sponsoring’ the home matches, coupled with it simply has to be USM providing the steels for the new ground and even the (press) rumoured murmurings that it was Usmanov who met Ancelloti before Moshiri..?

All conjecture from many angles I know, but I personally cannot see our stadium not having a ‘USM’ in the title, can you ?

Plus the fact, again, that it simply makes so mutch sense to feed us from the outside to in to stave off unwarranted attention, (from espescially ffp) and the greed of agents thinking they can get more money for their players etc.

No, I simply cannot see past the logic that the coming large scale development of the Liverpool waterfront (inc Stadium AND Liver buildings remember) would be coped with, with a guy with 1bill.,who has, or works for/involved with a guy with 15 bill ! And let’s get it right, could buy and sell Peel Holdings in a blink.

No,Meis left out the large ‘Private Mooring only’ sign outside the front of the new stadium in the plans deliberately methinks !

Stan Schofield
27 Posted 29/12/2019 at 08:15:12
Andrew@19: Trouble is, as soon as we have young players who are playimg very well and are noticed for it, some Evertonians start talking about how much they'd fetch. Only mediocre clubs' supporters do that. I know we've been mediocre for too long, and selling our best players in their prime is both a reflection and cause of it, but we're supposed to be finally pulling away from that. The focus is now on retaining our best, and signing new ones where needed, whilst selling the less able ones. That is the sign of a club at the top or going places.
Barry Rathbone
28 Posted 29/12/2019 at 08:36:41
Don@17 Spot on right here:

"there seems to me to be little point in appointing CA if Moshiri doesn't enable him to purchase just a few expensive, classy players.

Monumental mindlessness by those not tuned into this fundamental point. I would add I think we need more than a few and expect the financial titan that is Moshiri to find a way to do just that regardless of financial shackles

Jerome Shields
29 Posted 29/12/2019 at 08:41:14
Duncan has been the unlikely aid to Ancelotti, in addressing motivation issues, but also getting the best out of existing players by providing the right structure for them to work in on the pitch. Ancelotti has built on this and has the ability to build further.

The high wages percentage is a problem, that Brands has been trying to address, Those that where sitting comfortably on their contracts will find the attitude and standards around them have changed. The fact that Everton are going through a perceived injury crisis will add pressure to those that are not getting selected.
If Everton can keep improving results wise the pressure will increase further.

Having the right Management in place will make a lot of difference to the financial performance. The internal management underperformance has to be addressed , parallel to progress that has been made on the pitch, if Everton are to progress.

Stan Schofield
30 Posted 29/12/2019 at 09:28:31
Andrew@19: Just to add to my post @27, I realise that what you've said @19 is correct, and that you haven't said you accept selling our best players. I'm just making the point that even talking about how much our best players might fetch is a sign of where we've been but not of where we want to be.
Paul McCoy
31 Posted 29/12/2019 at 10:00:41
Like you Tom (26), I’m not sure who is going to pay for the stadium. A guy I know who was involved early on told me it definitely won’t be coming out of Moshiri’s pocket though.
Tony Everan
32 Posted 29/12/2019 at 10:05:11
Interesting stuff Paul, thanks for the insight.

It raises a question now about what the club does when Man Utd offer 80m for Richarlison.

Stan Schofield
33 Posted 29/12/2019 at 11:10:47
Tony@32: If the club let Richarlison go at this stage, it would be a major concern, and it would indicate to me that we're not really moving forward despite hiring a top manager. If we are really moving forward, the days of selling our best players who are still progressing or in their prime must stop.
Tony Everan
34 Posted 29/12/2019 at 11:22:00
I agree Stan, we have the green shoots of an excellent young team, with an excellent manager to take us where we want to be.

The bean counters need muzzling and the board need to be financially creative to make sure the critical players of our young progressive team are retained. Richarlison is one of them.

Rob Halligan
35 Posted 29/12/2019 at 11:22:50
Tony, in a word Fuck All!!

Ok, that's two words, but you know what I mean. Ancelotti has already said even before he took charge of the Burnley game, he wanted assurances that neither Richarlison and Digne would be sold and he wants to build a team around those two.

Brian Harrison
36 Posted 29/12/2019 at 11:39:04
Paul,

As always a very well researched and a well written piece. I cant argue with the figures you have produced. But I am sure that Carlo would have asked about what his budget would be over the next 12 to 18 months, now if he wasn't told the full picture then we will be in serious trouble. Because managers of the quality of Ancelotti would not have come to a club in 15/16th position in the league without serious guarantees of his ability to bring in quality players. Unless he is coming here to do his best with pretty much the squad he inherited, and if it all goes wrong with a 4 year deal in his pocket he will leave with between £20 - £30 million in pay off payments.

I personally think Carlo has come for the long haul, but to get this club to where our current owner and fans want it will take considerably more money than Paul believes he will have to spend.

Phil Greenough
37 Posted 29/12/2019 at 14:37:27
Am I too naive in thinking that Usmanov and Moshiri, being extremely wealthy gentlemen, would have accountants with far superior minds, (no offence, Paul) to ensure they do not fall foul of financial irregularities?

Brian Williams
38 Posted 29/12/2019 at 14:44:33
Tony#32.
What the club does is ask Utd "Don't you want to buy BOTH legs then"?
Drew O'Neall
39 Posted 30/12/2019 at 07:58:41
Sell the naming rights to Goodison Park for the final 2-3 years.

We’re leaving anyway.

Brian Williams
40 Posted 30/12/2019 at 08:29:24
He should buy this rightback. Don't care what he's like imagine the songs!

https://rokerreport.sbnation.com/2019/12/30/21041945/roker-roundup-dutch-right-back-jizz-hornkamp-claims-he-turned-down-summer-move-to-sunderland

Laurie Hartley
41 Posted 30/12/2019 at 08:53:48
Paul as usual a very well put together article.

As you suggested in your penultimate paragraph, it looks like Farhad Moshiri now finds himself with a potent combination of Director of Football, Football Manager, and Assistant Manager. He couldn’t possibly have planned that but he deserves a change of luck in my opinion.

What I am sure of is that he has planned the building and financing of Bramley-Moore. The one thing that can sabotage that plan is the loss of our premier league status. By appointing Carlo Ancelloti, once again my opinion only, he has removed that risk.

Ancelloti has hinted that he won’t be looking for a striker in January, and if Calvert-Lewin, Richarlison, and Kean can maintain or indeed improve on their form in the Newcastle game, he won’t have to. I think if anything it will be a centre half he goes for because my gut feeling is he feels he can get a tune out of our available midfielders.

He has also stated that he will be working closely with Marcel Brands, presumably to find new upcoming talent.

The big question therefore is where is the funding for Bramley-Moore coming from? I keep coming up with the same answer - Alisher Usmanov.

Here is a direct question to you Paul, which I am not sure if I have asked you previously. If EFC obtains the planning permission can Megafon or USM fund and build the stadium and lease it back to the club without us falling foul of the FFP rules?

Steve Shave
42 Posted 30/12/2019 at 08:58:37
Brian William's (40) that is hilarious, forget about the fact he is shite, with a name like Jizz Hornkamp that guy is going places take a bow son.
Derek Taylor
43 Posted 30/12/2019 at 13:58:23
I can't see how Moshiri's USP in his approach to Ancelloti focused on the opportunity to improve the existing squad and young players in development. I'm equally sure the first question his advisers raised was 'Can you afford him ?'

Beyond that, I'm positive that someone with his CV would require assurances that he would be supported in the market to the extent he felt was necessary. I bet FFP was hardly mentioned. 'The money men will sort that out !'

If the new man was expected to work within constraints, they would have gone for a Moyes type on a third the salary at most. As it is, I suspect the owner's silent partner is already lining up his next sponsorship project to put things right.

Although I have always enjoyed The Esk's input, I have to remind him that managing to work round the financial/ legal constraints he mentions is the food and water of those businessmen who decide to park their wagon in the land of top football. My money is on Monaco Mosh to succeed.

Tony Everan
44 Posted 30/12/2019 at 18:44:25
With Holgate and Mina forging a solid Central defensive partnership, along with DCL scoring and playing in a loose 4-4-2- with Richie or Kean, do we need a defender or a striker ?

I think with Gbamin out and Gomes out, Ancelotti's focus for the moment will be bringing in a quality mid twenties Central Midfielder. Probably someone he has worked with before.

So for the moment DC-L and Mason Holgate being consistently amongst our best players on current form are allowing us to strengthen elsewhere without breaking the bank in the process.

Joe McMahon
45 Posted 30/12/2019 at 18:50:54
Don't know where to put this but just seen David Moyes on the news saying "That's what I do, win"

There was me thinking not at several away grounds mate!

Bobby Mallon
46 Posted 30/12/2019 at 23:25:41
You can bet your bottom dollar the stadium will be payed for by private money and the council
Ian Smitham
47 Posted 30/12/2019 at 23:57:59
Matt#24, maybe Paul could elaborate, but my understanding is that the booking of expenses is all around getting planning permissions.

Tom#26 I recon you have this right, in your paragraph regards property development. Links well with Paul at 31, Laurie #41, I recon you have hit the nail on the head.

These fantastically rich people have got there somehow. They see an opportunity and seize it. Personally, as with Goodison now, there will be a structure in place as to who owns what. Laurie, as you intimated, I bet a separate holding company owns the ground, land or whatever, and the club pays a rent to it. There will be local generation and the big boys will get involved. Win win for the area really. But the big boys get rich. Richer.

I saw mention of a Chinese bank. Thought it was Canadian. Sorry.

So, who is in it for what? The shares are trading at about £3,500. There is a load of expense that can not be capitalised in to the shares, until planning is given, if it is. Then the picture changes, I have heard rumour that the shares are £10,000 each with planning. Mosh will be happy, very happy.

Someone correct me I am wrong, Paul, especially you. We sat with my good mate Rodger at the AGM last time, if you fancy a chat and even a beer (or six), please let me know. Great thread BTW

Ian

Paul [The Esk]
48 Posted 31/12/2019 at 00:26:26
#41 Laurie - one of the routes out of our current financial difficulties is to seek a combination of primary debt and mezzanine funders. When the stadium is built the club could sell the stadium to (probably) the mezzanine funder at a premium to cost. The club then books a profit which reduces the pressure on the P&L (from a profit and sustainability point of view) and allows the mezzanine funder to lease the stadium back to the club at a premium to their cost - essentially providing a win/win.
The list of who could be the mezzanine funder in the above scenario is extensive.
Alan J Thompson
49 Posted 31/12/2019 at 04:23:08
Reading through the Rumour Mill on players Everton may or may not be interested in signing led me to wonder if Mr Ancellotti's reported 15M pa wage is his alone or is it cover all of his Staff, that is do we sub-contract the responsibility for running the 1st team squad or is Mr Ancellotti earning more than the DoF or for that matter than any other member of the Board albeit some have a vested interest as shareholders. More as a matter of seniority on the final say in transfer matters and with regard to any transfer budget or promises on availability of funds.
Laurie Hartley
50 Posted 31/12/2019 at 08:34:31
Thanks Paul - that is a very interesting response / explanation. I suppose we will just have to wait and see where the finance is coming from. I suspect it won’t be too long a wait.

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