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Bill Gall
1 Posted 13/07/2020 at 21:17:25
A question I would like to ask, is there any ruling against another person,say a billionaire, providing a forgivable loan ? as this report gives the supporters who say B.M.D. will never be built more ammunition to their opinions.
This new stadium is the future of Everton football club in retaining manager's, recruiting new players and improving the clubs overall finances, any delay could be devastating.
Eric Myles
2 Posted 14/07/2020 at 00:14:45
£600 million of debt paints a bleak picture but that money would not all be needed at one hit. Say the stadium takes 3 years to build, then the drawdown of the debt facility will happen over that time.

Then for shareholder debt, I'm sure Moshiri and other teams owners are not going to call it in and put their teams out of business. So surely any lenders would take that into account with the right assurances? That reduces our debt significantly and many other clubs also.

We're extremely fortunate that we have Moshiri as our owner now as, with Bill Kenwright and his friend Paul Gregg, we probably wouldn't survive.

Mark Andersson
3 Posted 14/07/2020 at 04:21:37
This report just confirms to me that we live in a crazy mad world.

This pandemic put my small business out of business. I'm now living off government handouts, barely surviving, and that comes to an end in September.

Meanwhile, those shithouse players on vast fortunes can't be arsed putting a professional shift in.

What's the point of a new stadium if we don't have an entertaining and winning team on the field?

Stephen Vincent
4 Posted 14/07/2020 at 06:59:17
In view of the potential consequences of revenue loss due to Covid-19 and the need to fund the new stadium, I wonder if our current board is robust enough?

There is excellent theoretical knowledge, but Denise Barrett-Baxendale (for all her admirable qualities) and Sasha Ryazsantsev have never actually run a business, Brands is purely a football man, and Kenwright is... well, Kenwright!

Perhaps the time has come to appoint someone who has been at the sharp end of a substantial business and who has practical day-to-day experience, to come in and help steer us through these difficult times. Sir Terry Leahy, formerly of Tesco, would perhaps be a good call, as a blue.

Jerome Shields
5 Posted 14/07/2020 at 07:35:11
Stephen #4,

Sir Terry? Definitely not, the whole Tesco edifice came crumbling down after he left. The accounts where found to have inflated revenues. Of course he was long gone and others took the blame.

The Board is not robust enough and has previously been responsible for actions that have resulted in the vulnerable position they now find themselves in, facing the Covid-19 crisis.

Everton need a Board that can draw up a Mission Statement and has the capability to implement policies and plans to achieve its objective. The only current mission is to rip off Moshiri or, more accurately, to continue as before, to rip off the Club.

I am sure that not all Directors have this objective, but they are complicit in being members of a Board that has and is doing so.

Brian Harrison
6 Posted 14/07/2020 at 10:08:30
Paul,

As always, a well researched and a well written piece, and certainly if your projections are right many clubs will be severely impacted by Covid-19.

I think there are huge questions for our board during the next year or so, and not least how the money needed for the Bramley-Moore Dock stadium will impact on player transfers. Even before Covid-19 I thought that the money needed to build Bramley-Moore Dock would have a real impact on our finances for transfers, but now I can't see how we can both build a stadium and be active in the transfer market.

This is really worrying as this team needs major surgery not just tinkering round the edges, and although nobody could have predicted the pandemic, I could well see Ancelotti walking if we can't provide the funds for the rebuilding that is necessary.

Even if Usmanov plays a more active roll, your figure of needing £600 million is eye-watering numbers, even for 2 wealthy men like Moshiri and Usmanov.

Ian Pilkington
7 Posted 14/07/2020 at 11:01:15
Paul,

I know you have always been concerned about the impact of FFP on our future prospects. The Manchester City verdict appears to have been a victory over the vested interests of Liverpool, Manchester United, Arsenal and their European counterparts. Will this prove favourable for Everton?

Tony Everan
8 Posted 14/07/2020 at 12:27:11
Thanks Paul another great, detailed report.

It is starting to feel like it’s now or never for our stadium. There may be one or two chinks of light to cling on to. The government may sanction a long term low cost loan for the stadium and its surrounding infrastructure. The have already said they are going to invest and spend their way out of the oncoming recession.

There must be some requests or negotiations going on for a minimal interest loan for what is the regeneration and a long term economic boost to a big chunk of Merseyside.

Jason Li
9 Posted 14/07/2020 at 13:01:13
We'll be alright. Moshiri has an accounting background, and well networked with the elites and rich powerful people

https://www.forbes.com/profile/farhad-moshiri/#7f1f8e66568a

Brands is proven, so is Carlo. We could possibly need a couple more top football data scientists from other clubs like Borussia Dortmund and Ajax who do the scouting analytics. Then we can help support Brands and Carlo with new ideas that have worked elsewhere.

Jay Wood
[BRZ]

10 Posted 14/07/2020 at 13:43:14
Beyond question, the global pandemic is a huge curve ball for all. It exposes Everton as Paul has carefully laid out in all his articles.

There are still many unknowns to be factored in to those the Esk has already calculated.

If and when a second wave of CV-19 cases and fatalities hit, how might that further impact on already devastated live sport and match attendance?

How can clubs plan for the future against so many unknowns?

Everton's particular vulnerability is that we are now totally dependent on the largesse of Farhad Moshiri continuing to fund the club.

If he should pull the plug - KER-ASH!

Everton needs him more than Moshiri needs Everton.

He's 65 years old. Has a personal wealth of £2.5 billion. He lives in Monaco and could go and do absolutely anything he likes, when he likes.

So why burden yourself with the yoke of Everton?

Vanity? Indulgence? Distraction? The challenge?

If he is thinking of cashing in his stake, our saving grace is to do so now would guarantee severe losses for him.

If you had stock holdings in January-February and sold up then, you are quids in. To sell the same stock now would incur severe losses. That is the case with Moshiri and his Everton holdings.

I hold to the belief that Moshiri and other money men are using Everton as a convenient vehicle to earn some serious monies in the development of the neglected docklands.

As long as that remains the case, it serves Moshiri's interests to front Everton.

And as others have already pointed out, whilst football economics are bad on many levels, now could be a very advantageous time to undertake a stadium build.

Interest rates are exceedingly low. So too are the raw materials for the build. Labour will not be a problem. Government will encourage such projects as BMD to help get the economy going.

How the global financial collapse impacts on our ability to trade players is another matter altogether.

John Zapa
11 Posted 14/07/2020 at 14:29:25
Great Article Paul as usual. There are still many possible unknowns that lie ahead as Jay #10 rightly points out. It maybe be favourable circumstances to build, but the stadium costs will still need to be repaid in the coming years and the business case to pay it back is non existent.
The track record of the club leadership over the last 2 decades or so, has shown very poor decision making, from managers and staff hired, to player recruitment, contracts, commercial deals etc... I do not have much faith that this leadership team will suddenly turn the ship around. I'm more concerned that another poor transfer window performance, with players of similar quality of Iwobi and Kean being signed will mean the end of premiership football. This will set the club back 10 to 15 years.
Derek Thomas
12 Posted 14/07/2020 at 15:43:14
Jason @ 9; I fear 'scouting analytics' is just why we have Gbamin, Kean and Iwobi at a cost of £80mill+ wages, who can't kick a ball (for various reasons) to a blue shirt to save their lives
Robert Tressell
13 Posted 14/07/2020 at 16:29:58
Don't knock scouting analytics - knock misuse and poor scouting analytics.

We need people watching games and players too of course, but analytics are essential.

Jason Li
14 Posted 14/07/2020 at 16:55:05
Derek @9, yeah - me too. Amusingly, we need to analyse the analytics.

However, sales teams, financial controllers, MD's/CEOs all use data to make a judgement. Some will be industry standard, and will tailor to their own organisation too.

It can't harm us to bring in a few analysts from other clubs who are successful in recruitment to give us some fresh ideas. Would be cheaper than another Delph, Walcott, Tosan, Gibson, Bernard, Snieds, Sandro, Klassen, Van De Meyde disaster... and on and on and on and on.

For example medical stats can be anything, not just for the medical in the transfer window, but on how they run when scouts watch the game - not just acceleration, but length of sprints average in metres in a game, average running speed over a game not just yards covered... and so on.

Wide men - number of times they beat a player in a game, number of times ball taken off their feet (Gomes recently), percentage of passes < 10 metres <20 metres > 20 metres in a game, and so on.

Then we can take this data and iron out what we want in a player to do, eg run with the ball and take people on or just run and turn back if a player is facing, to a midfielder who favours short passes or a high percent of longer passes completed.

If we stay the same in how we decide on our recruitment, guess what type of players we'll have in the next 5 years - again.

Bill Gall
15 Posted 14/07/2020 at 17:20:38
Jay # 100
Your comments / I hold to the belief that Moshiri and other money men are using Everton as a convenient vehicle to earn some serious monies in the development of the neglected docklands may be close to the truth, and may explain why he sold his shares in Arsenal, one of Sky's darlings top 6.

Paul good article, but for some of us not familiar with finances can you or any one else explain the Fair Play ruling in relation to Everton..

F.P RULES. Clubs need to balance football related expenditure / Transfers and wages - with television and ticket income, plus revenues raised by their commercial departments.
Money spent on ( Stadiums, ) training facilities, youth development or community is exempt.

After the Man City verdict ( cant believe Klopp complained ) and at 80yrs old it seems the real money people can get around any rules.

Kieran Kinsella
16 Posted 14/07/2020 at 17:34:33
I wonder if the clubs will take the same view as airlines, and banks in 2008, and continue spending with a “top big to fail mantra. I mean the PM said football was critical and he wanted the EPL up and running before the economy opened.
Philip Bunting
17 Posted 14/07/2020 at 18:34:46
Yes it's a lot of money to finance but as 80% of that 600mill is stadium related its money secured and paid back over 25 or 30years if not more, no different to my mortgage but with a much better rate possibly. Plus Mosh underwriting some of it and stadium naming rights another large chunk it's around maybe 300mill over a long period. Not sounding that problematic, so long as we stop wasting money on silly transfers and wages and start to developed a youthful winning mentality in the squad.
Eric Myles
18 Posted 15/07/2020 at 06:52:07
I agree, Philip, I don't think any debt related to Bramley-Moore Dock or Moshiri is unmanageable, it just makes the accounts look bad.

Maybe the board can take a leaf out of West Ham book and have a rights issue? That way, Kenwright could actually make a positive investment in the club he loves and has made a lot of money from. And it would maybe allow a new investment from a friend of Moshiri?

Benn Chambers
19 Posted 15/07/2020 at 11:16:44
Absolutely terrifying.

A further £600M needed after the £350M he's already committed. That's half his official net worth. I can only hope that Usmanov joins him in an official capacity as joint owner or we're fucked.

Let's be honest, No Bramley-Moore Dock Stadium and I think it's practical to assume that assets will be sold to balance the books and repair some of the disgusting and gross mismanagement of Moshiri's money by Koeman, Walsh, Silva and Allardyce.

The only worry now is, are our assets gonna be worth enough to repair said damage, in the current market? Are anyone's??

Laurie Hartley
20 Posted 15/07/2020 at 12:17:25
Benn #19 – in fairness, we can't blame Marco Silva for wasting money – Digne and Richarlison signed on his shift.
Benn Chambers
21 Posted 15/07/2020 at 13:00:47
Laurie #20,

I suppose you're right but so did Iwobi and Delph. Maybe be it's Marcel Brands that needs looking at.

Players he worked with, like Lozano and Bergwijn, have gone for similar or less than he paid for Iwobi. Shambles, that signing!

Laurie Hartley
22 Posted 15/07/2020 at 23:37:17
Benn # 21 – I had (perhaps not surprisingly) forgotten about Delph.
Alan J Thompson
23 Posted 19/07/2020 at 15:15:52
It might just boil down to how long this virus and its effects hang around and how playing matches behind closed doors might affect how much TV companies might be prepared to part with and if they can use it in negotiations.

If an effective vaccine is found before year's end, then it might just boil down to renegotiating loans in a time of low-interest rates. If it is considered that the virus's effects will continue, then lenders might just question clubs' viability.

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