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>Sweden vs Poland Predictions, Picks & Odds – 28/09/2026
UEFA Nations League · 2Sweden vs Poland Preview
Sweden return to home soil in the Nations League with a point to prove after a mixed run of form that has yielded just one win and two defeats in their last five outings. Their home record, however, tells a different story: a prolific attack averaging over three goals per game and a defence that has been near impenetrable. That domestic fortress mentality will be central to their hopes of starting Group B4 on the front foot.
Poland arrive carrying the emotional weight of their World Cup play-off final defeat to Sweden in March. Their recent form offers little comfort, with just one victory across their last four matches. Head coach Jan Urban, retained despite that painful elimination, will look to Robert Lewandowski for inspiration. The veteran striker's desire for redemption against the team that ended Poland's World Cup dreams could be a defining factor in this encounter.
Sweden's home record in the 2024/25 Nations League campaign makes the home win at 1.98 a compelling selection. Across three home fixtures, the Swedes averaged over three goals scored while conceding barely a third of a goal per game. That kind of dominance on their own turf is hard to ignore, especially against a Poland side that has lost two of their last four matches.
The over 2.5 goals pick at N/A is backed by Sweden's perfect record of producing high-scoring home games in this competition. Every single one of their three home Nations League fixtures cleared that threshold comfortably. Poland, with Robert Lewandowski leading the line and seeking personal redemption after the World Cup play-off heartbreak, will not sit back, which should open up space for both attacks.
Both teams to score at 1.05 also deserves attention. Poland carry genuine attacking threat through Lewandowski, and the emotional weight of facing the nation that ended their World Cup dreams in March will fuel their intensity. Sweden's recent defensive wobbles across all competitions, including two defeats in five, suggest they are not impenetrable. Expect goals at both ends in a fixture loaded with narrative tension.
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Trends to Know about Sweden vs Poland
- Sweden scored 3.67 goals per home game
- Poland lost two of last four matches
- All three Sweden home games exceeded 2.5 goals
Form & Statistics: Sweden vs Poland
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Season statistics (5)
Poland
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How to Watch Sweden vs Poland Match?
What time is Sweden vs Poland?
This match kicks off on 28th September 2026 at 19:45 local time.
Where is Sweden vs Poland being played?
The venue for Sweden vs Poland has not yet been confirmed by UEFA.
How Can I Watch Sweden vs Poland on TV and Live Stream?
Broadcast details for Sweden vs Poland will be confirmed closer to the match date.