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>Sweden vs Poland Predictions, Picks & Odds – 28/09/2026
UEFA Nations League · 2Sweden vs Poland – Best bets of the match
Sweden vs Poland Preview
Sweden return to home soil in strong spirits after a memorable campaign that saw them defeat Poland in a dramatic World Cup play-off final earlier in 2026. Their recent home record is formidable: an average of 3.67 goals scored per game with just 0.33 conceded across their last three home fixtures. Despite a mixed recent run that includes two defeats and a draw, the Swedes remain a different proposition at home.
Poland arrive carrying the sting of that play-off heartbreak, and Robert Lewandowski will be eager to channel frustration into performance. Under Jan Urban, whose contract was extended despite the World Cup disappointment, Poland's away form has been underwhelming with two losses and a draw in their last four outings. Kamil Grosicki's international retirement leaves a gap in experience that Urban must address through fresh selections.
Sweden's home record in the 2024/25 Nations League campaign makes a compelling case for backing the hosts at 1.95. Across three home fixtures, they averaged over three goals scored while conceding barely a third of a goal per match. That defensive solidity, paired with ruthless attacking output, suggests Poland face a daunting task on the road.
Poland's recent form raises concerns. Their sequence includes two defeats and a draw in the last four outings, with only one victory to show. Jan Urban's side will carry the psychological scars of that agonising play-off loss, and while Robert Lewandowski adds world-class quality, the team around him has struggled for consistency.
The over 2.5 goals market at 1.68 also deserves attention. Sweden recorded a 100% over 2.5 rate across their home matches last term, and Poland's defensive vulnerabilities on the road could fuel another high-scoring affair. A home win with goals looks the likeliest outcome for this fixture.
Trends to Know about Sweden vs Poland
- Sweden scored 3.67 goals per home match
- Poland lost three of last four away
- Sweden's home Over 2.5 rate: 100%
Form & Statistics: Sweden vs Poland
Sweden
Recent form
Season statistics (5)
Poland
Recent form
Season statistics (3)
How to Watch Sweden vs Poland Match?
What time is Sweden vs Poland?
Sweden vs Poland kicks off on 28 September 2026 at 19:45 local time in the UEFA Nations League.
Where is Sweden vs Poland being played?
The venue for Sweden vs Poland has not yet been confirmed by UEFA.
How Can I Watch Sweden vs Poland on TV and Live Stream?
Broadcast details for Sweden vs Poland will be confirmed closer to the fixture by UEFA and local rights holders.