Half-Term Prediction

So half the season gone and we sit in 6^th ? the same as at the end of last season. In fact, as the table below shows, from the same 19 fixtures as last year, we also have the same number of points ? the only change being an improvement in the goal difference of 6.

So to bring a little festive gloom, if all teams achieve the results in the 2^nd half of the season that they achieved last year, then Champions League ? we having a laugh, but as things stand we should all be going on a European Tour in 2008-09, even if we don?t win a cup this season!

This analysis which looks at all 20 teams shows that United and Chelsea are virtually the same as last season, but Liverpool and Arsenal have closed the gap by 5 points. However, matching last season performance will still leave them 9 points drift of automatic European Qualification. There nearest challenger is of course City which we can see from their current league position and that they are currently 19 points better than last season. But they are unlikely to add the same number of points in the second half where their fixtures gained them 26 points last year compared to only 16 in the first half. So at the moment they are in the only guaranteed Uefa Cup place, the others rely on the teams in the Cup Finals being in the Champions League to lower the qualification to 6^th and 7^th places.

And here the competition is fierce with Everton, Portsmouth, Villa, Spurs, Blackburn and Bolton all within 5 points of each other. As I write this, it is before the Arsenal game. A loss for us would put us down to 55 points and 8^th, but a win at Boro would put us back up to 58! However, it is amazing how results re-occur. Chelsea only drew with Villa and there was disaster for Newcastle at Wigan. Would you like to guess what last year?s results were? The same! In the first half of the season, nearly half the games (45%) had the same result as last year. So movement is history is a reasonable predictor of the future.

But is Champions League so tough for us to get? To really progress (and even beat City for 5^th) we have some important matches. Home to Villa, Spurs and Chelsea last year were all defeats and City and Reading were only draws. That is 13 points to improve! Losses at Fulham and Boro and City (could be tough to reverse that this year) and draws at two of last year?s relegated clubs could be another 10 and all of a sudden we are on 81 points and we have gone undefeated in the rest of the season. We can but dream! But we should have the ability to pick up more than the 25 points we did last year and therefore challenge for that 5^th place.

As for the rest of the league, the relegation battle this year could be real fun. With 7 clubs projected to get below the magic 40 points, it could be a real dog fight. What is interesting is that none of the promoted teams are out-performing the teams relegated last year. Newcastle only picked up 13 points last season in their remaining fixtures. If they do free fall like that, then Big Sam should be manager number 8 to be sacked during the season. It also shows that there are now clearly 3 divisions in this league. The 70+ points, the 45-60 and the less than 40 points. The first division are in the Champions League, the last fight relegation and the ones in the middle are where the real competition is happening as the winners also get into Europe.

One final piece of trivia: Over the last 38 matches, Everton have scored 58 goals and have a positive goal difference of +22. The last time we were this free scoring was at the end of the 1999-2000 season, Walter Smith?s second season. But then we also leaked goals at the same rate. So to get a positive goal difference of +22 over 38 games, you have to go all the way back to the start of the 1996-97 season (we had finished the previous one with +20 thanks to 6^th place and Andrej Kanchelskis) which is over 10 years. Who says we have not come a long way in the last 5 years?

Here?s to a Happy New Year, and another European Tour in 2008-09.

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