The Mail Bag
Everton to finish sixth
Comments (34)
I?ll come back to the prediction in a minute. I just want to suggest that the main features of this season are fairly clear already.
The Premie League consists of the Sky 4, then a group fighting for Uefa Cup places, then a group of Middlesbrough-like teams... and lastly relegation fighters. The second group has been more open than the Sky 4, but involved three of the last four years have been Everton, Blackburn, Bolton, Spurs and Villa (?the five?), with Portsmouth and Man City getting two mentions (ok West Ham at a stretch). Nobody gets four mentions ? all have had one bad season.
Spurs apart, the five have had settled managers who have found a way to play and stuck with it. Bolton and Blackburn don?t have this any more and won?t challenge; Everton and Villa remain; Spurs have had a very bad start. Of the pretenders, Portsmouth won?t sustain their position post-Redknapp, Man City applied their new-found wealth too late for an impact this season, and we can forget West Ham. And Hull.
Unless Redknapp can remake Spurs immediately as Uefa Cup contenders, Villa and Everton will occupy the positions immediately behind the Sky 4. We will be in a two-horse race with Villa for fifth which we will probably lose due to Villa?s better start. We're very likely to finish with 55-59 points. Seventh position will be some way below in the low 50s. There?ll be ups and downs on the way, but that?s how it will finish. Everton are now one of the predictable consistent clubs in the league.
Well, we can re-open the question in May. Meanwhile I?m going to offer this contribution to the Newcastle United website in their 'big club' section.
Peter Hall, Posted 02/11/2008 at 22:36:10
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With no European competition this season, we should at least have fresh legs. At the moment I’d take 6 place as much as that depresses me. If things are going to change its Champions League or bust. Thats how you get players and money in.
Stupid post.
Peter, there?s nothing like taking a couple of last-gasp results and extrapolating that over an entire season. You forget that Spurs are only six points behind us. We talk about how to play Osman, Neville and Hibbert. The Yak can?t buy a goal and if Arteta is injured (he is prone after all) we have no creative bite. Spurs have a squad brimming with talent and are beginning to show glimpses of what they?re capable of. Do we think we have better than Pavylochenko, Hutton, Modric, Lennon, Zokora and Bentley? I?m talking about "on a good day either".
It isn?t Christmas for another seven weeks, so I reckon they?ll make up those six points soon enough. There?s something rotten in the state of Everton and don?t let last minute winners against Bolton and Fulham fool you into thinking otherwise.
"There?s something rotten in the state of Everton" FFS who told you this. Oh yes, you made this up in your our mind.
Pavlyuchenko, better than Yakubu? I?d rather have Saha than him......
Hutton, Modric, Lennon, Zokora and Bentley....
Arteta, Pienaar, Fellaini, Cahill...... fair enough, we don?t have the wingers to compete with those at Spurs, but our 1st XI is no worse than theirs.
Their best 2 centre-backs are the biggest sick-notes in the Premier League, aside from van der Meyde. Their keeper is terrible... aside from Bent, Pavlyuchenko is shite and they have Campbell up front.
Some people just like moaning about Everton for the sake of moaning. Spurs might have more players and more expensively aqcuired players, but they don?t have much of a team. I just hope that Harry turns out to be human after all...
Last season we had 4th in our grasp and lost it and then all the excuses about injuries, a small squad and the players being tired were reeled off. So maybe the same could happen this year (and we don?t have a Uefa Cup run to sustain confidence like last year) and then all the early predictions would mean nothing.
Who would have predicted that Tottenham would have been languishing at the bottom of the league after 8 games or that Hull would have collected 20 points so far this season and scored 3 goals at Old Trafford ? How many times have you seen Manchester United, at home, be cruising at 4-1 and then concede 2 goals?
Playing until the whistle is blown is what good teams do.
Yes, of course we can finish top 6, but our level of performance is going to have to improve massively from what we?ve seen against Bolton and Fulham. Players like Arteta and the Yak are really going to have to deliver what we know they?re capable of. I certainly wouldn?t write off Man City, Spurs and Portsmouth ? all of them still have very good chances of a top six finish, as no doubt any bookies will tell you.
I really think, therefore, that it is game on in terms of a top 6 finish. If we can get a run of results together with the fixtures we have coming up the confidence will return and I can?t see anyone more capable than us and Villa this season. I think we will finish 6th behind Arsenal, with Villa in 4th and City Spurs and Boro somewhere close behind us.
Looking at the other contenders, Man City probably pose the biggest threat, but their away form is poor and they have extra games to play which may take effect on their players come the end of the season. Tottenham leak far too many goals and then the likes of Portsmouth and Blackburn (even though they both beat us) are just average mid-table teams. We obviously need to keep everyone fit and hopefully our small squad will benefit from playing less games this year and be able to maintain results at the end of the season.
Also, a note to point out the teams in the Uefa Cup are more likely to get injuries due to playing more games and it would be interesting to see how Aston Villa coped if they were to lose Ashley Young and Gabby Agbonlahor. Big results are definitely needed in this next run of games for the blues!
I’ll be hoping for 4th.
There?s nothing like a well made and cogent argument and that David is nothing like a well made and cogent argument. That must have taken you all morning to think of and type. Did you have help?
I?m fed up though of people who just quote our best eleven. Yes we have a good first eleven, but it?s not just a good first eleven that gets you into the European spots or in the position of winning a cup. You only have to look at last season from the Fiorentina tie onwards to see that. What Villa, Man City, Portsmouth and Spurs have that we don?t, is strength in depth. Hell, even some our first eleven have been piss poor this year. Could you see one of those other teams starting Lescott in the form he is that the moment? Absolutely not. The difference? We don?t have an alternative or any choice.
I bet if you asked Mark Hughes he would agree with me, having players like Robinho doesn't make a season-long impact immediately, its a gradual process, just look at their away form.
I think we?ll finish above City and realistically we can challenge Villa ? their good start versus our poor one makes them look alot better than us but I don't think they are in truth.
We can finish in the top 6 again this year, but it won't be easy as the league is very competitive this season. Arsenal are not the team they were, Villa are better than they were and Spurs will defo finish high up the table.
We should be aiming for the Uefa Cup again.
It's going to be a long tough season and I really don?t see how our threadbare, mismatched, unbalanced & unmotivated squad (especially midfield) have any chance of pushing for sixth.
Lescott isn’t uprooting any trees but to be frank he doesn’t need to for the vast majority of PL sides. Plus we haven’t conceded a goal in over 4 hours of football. I think Man City, Portsmouth and Spurs woud all pick Lescott in a heart-beat. He’s better than one of Cuellar, Laursen,Shorey so Villa would play him. King and Woodgate spend more in hospital waiting rooms than playing football so he’d walk into the spurs side and anyone who’s thinks Tal Ben Haim would beat him to a place in the city side hasn’t been watching the blue half of manchester play recently, especially when bolton tonked them at home
Add into the equation that last season this team (albeit with a few changes in personnel) did play reasonably well in quite a few games, then you have to have some reason for optimism.
Don?t people always say the sign of a good team is when they play badly they can still grind out the results.
If we can continue this slow improvement then I only see Villa and City as our main rivals for 5-7 place. I know its not the top four but things look a hell of a lot of better than they did at the start of the season.
That?s why I floated this subject. And you have provided the answer.
Many try to find a realistic balance - where do we stand relative to the competition?
But just as many of you count a couple of wins as a meaningless blip while a couple of defeats as a taste of reality.
Well, get real!
Of the non-Sky4, our squad and management are demonstrably amongst the best.
Sixth!
Sixth-bottom we ain?t going to be. The ?sixth-bottom? guy just enjoys misery and is hopelessly wrong, along with the rest of the misery bunch.
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1 Posted 03/11/2008 at 03:54:42
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