The Mail Bag
55+ Points?
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Trying to be realistic about our points prospects for the season and where it will leave us. There are plenty of winnable games left... but most of these are against teams who will be fighting to avoid relegation and so the game will become more difficult. There are games where, going into the game, we will probably be satisfied with a point — these are against teams looking for the title or an European place. And I see only one game where we are unlikely to get any points.
3 Points: Hull (H); West Ham (H); Portsmouth (H); Bolton (H); Fulham (H); Wigan (A); Wolves (A); Stoke (A); Blackburn (A). I think we'll be disappointed if we don't win these.
1 Point: Chelsea (H); Man U. (H); Liverpool (A); Villa (A); Birmingham (A); Man. City (A). Can't expect much more but we live in hope.
0 Points: Spurs (A)
If my crystal ball comes to fruition we will have 62 points. That should be good enough for 6th or 5th. Do I think it will happen this way? It would be nice but....
Terry White, Posted 28/01/2010 at 19:18:10
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I would be deilghted if we got to 62 points, but think that 56-59 is more realistic.
Last season 60+ was enough for Europe, but miles away from 4th place. This year will be slightly different. There will be 5 clubs (Everton, Liverpool, Spurs, City, Villa) between 4th and 8th and there will be 6/8 points between all of them. If we finish with 62 points it may be enough for 4th, but 56-59 will be enough for 6th or 7th and Europe.
After that, from a possible 36 points anywhere between 22-26 is what I think we’ll end up getting. 55 points the minimum which should be good enough for 8th. Think it’ll much depend on Moyes eeking out wins against the four coming up, which could push up higher up the table.
Unless Moyes can break his own record going to Anfield and winning and also beating Chelsea for the first time then top 6 ain’t happening.
My gut feeling, however, is we’ll end up with 53-56 points and a seventh or eigth place finish. City, Liverpool, Spurs and Villa have the jump on us and I can't see us making up the gap.
If only we’d carried over last season's finishing form by adding to the squad when we needed to.
I reckon 62 would get you 6th this season, if closer to 4th than previous years in terms of points difference. I also think we have left it too late. 8 wins 4 draws and 4 losses would be a decent run in. That would get us 28 points, so finish on 57. No better than 7th — if that.
I’m dreaming of a good Europa run. Sporting were winning again the last time I looked. But either way, it will be far more difficult job getting to quarters of that than the FA Cup. What a missed opportunity.
I expect good football from us for the run in and would consider 7th a good season, considering where we were at half-time vs Hull.
I don’t see Terry’s outlook as overflowing, why can’t we beat Spurs? We could certainly do Liverpool finally. Overflowing would be thinking we can win every game (individually, we can; as a 16-game run... I won’t be putting any bets on).
We’re at a very odd stage in our season at the moment; we’ve not been great, but there’s a lot of promise for what’s to come. Anything could happen, so there’s no point ruling out a very strong finish just because your natural pessimism will make it hurt less if it doesn’t happen.
A win on Saturday please. We can worry about the rest later.
ps: I’d quite like to win the Eurpoa League as well...
We have a very tough February, but we are home vs Chelsea and Utd, so its not overly optimistic to think we can go unbeaten for the month.
With Yakubu, Arteta and Jags all to return we could have a great end of season.
We can only be optimistic, but with 15 games to go we should aim to win 9, any other than that is not a strong finish.
Allowing 1 or 2 shit performances, this is Everton after all and 4 drays thats 31 points. putting us on 60. That should be the target.
But as they say, one game at a time. A defeat against Wigan this weekend and it could all go to shit.
So, Wigan is what matters. 3 points there and then we can start thinking about Liverpool etc..
Mike Allison "PS> I’d quite like to win the Eurpoa League as well... " no shit
I suspect that will get us 7th place and just maybe a place in the Europa League.
As regards the Europa League, I can see us progressing past Sporting Lisbon and probably reaching the quaterfinals only.
Do I see us getting 60+ points? Not really, perhaps the 53-55 is the right number. Where will we finish? It’s like a golf tournament where a player may be say 3 shots back from the leader with 9 to play — can he catch the leader? Of course. But if there are also 10 players between him and the leader, then more realistically he will only catch one or two. We have every shot at finishing at least 8th but beyond that it becomes progressively more difficult to dig ourselves out of the hole that the first half of the season has created.
I see no reason why we should not win the "winnable" home games. to quote Walter Smith, I shall be extremely "disappointed" if we don’t win these and the more winnable away games, e.g., Wigan, Wolves. Do I expect we shall win all these games? Perhaps not, but on a game to game basis I shall be "disappointed" if we don’t. Likewise the one pointers — I’ll take that point now but will not be surprised if we do not get any or, indeed, if we end up with three in these games.
Given our returning "stars", if we can keep the balance correct, and fit in one or two new signings without upsetting the apple cart, 2010 is looking very promising.
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1 Posted 29/01/2010 at 03:27
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52 points... 7th or 8th.