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Back to where we were...

And in more ways than one.

While everyone will point to the players now back in the squad and the great news about Jagielka starting training in the next week, how many of you have spotted that, on a "equivalent fixture" basis, we are now only 1 point down on last season? Yes, this crappy season is now only one point worse than we got last year for the same fixtures we have played.

Problem we have is others have improved. City are 8 points up, Villa 5 and Spurs 6 so we are in real danger of still not being in the top 7.

But as for last season, then we matching those results we would be picking up 30 points from the last 15 games — and the equivalent fixtures last year saw just one defeat.

We still have to arrange the City (a) where we won, but our remaining fixtures — and the corresponding results last season — are:

Liverpool (a) Draw
Chelsea (h) Draw
Man Utd (h) Draw
Spurs (a) Win
Hull (h) Win
Birmingham (a) Win
Bolton (h) Win
Wolves (a) Draw
West Ham (h) Win
Villa (a) Draw
Blackburn (a) Draw
Fulham (h) Win
Stoke (a) Win
Portsmouth (h) Lose - last game of the season!!

Can we do a 23 game unbeaten run? Can we go 5 months unbeaten in this league? Do you all want some of the stuff I have been taking/drinking/smoking? Seriously, that is the position we are in.

So that would leave us at 62 points, the real question is can City pick up 22 not 17 from the remainng games and push us down to 7th and Spurs 21 not 15 from their last 14 games and push us to 8th? And with United and Villa in the Carling Cup, then Europa League is almost certain to be down to 6th, and if City, Villa or Chelsea make up the 2 clubs in the Cup final then Europa League is down to 7th.

I think it will be a tough ask so my suggestion is get your holidays booked for June, Intertoto starts in July and we could be in it and that having finished on over 60 points. Now that is depressing.
Phil Roberts, Kelsall, Cheshire Posted 31/01/2010 at 15:23:40

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Michael Kenrick

Wow! Some surprising, daunting and challenging stats there, Phil. Excellent post.

One thing though.... InterToto?!?! I thought that had gone the way of the dodo bird...

Dick Fearon
1 Posted 31/01/2010 at 22:32:10

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Phil, I am not suggesting you are wrong with your predictions; yes, it would take a really phenomenal run in to get anywhere near a place in Europe.

Other things needs be included in the equation, such as the current top three sides each having a reserve squad of international players ready to step up if needed. Compare that with the way injuries decimated our squad. Brum and Villa have enjoyed a relatively injury-free run. How much longer will they escape the injury curse?

A few recently injured and already Spurs' performance is taking a dive. The RS lose two key players to injury and they are ratshit. Everton's league position and general competitiveness reflects great credit on Moyes and his injury-ravaged squad.

2009 was our year of discontent but, with the turn of the year, the qualify re is at last a light at the end of a long dark tunnel. Midst our darkest hour, we Evertonians are nothing if not optimistic. Mountains are there to be climbed and I say bring em on. Er... where do I go to join Doddy’s church?

John Crook
2 Posted 31/01/2010 at 23:14:38

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Phil — I like your common sense "equivalent fixture basis" approach. It's good to get a post that is well thought and not so much single-minded.

I don't want to comment too much on a game-by-game basis of our remaining games but I never felt so confident about a group of fixtures. I really really do have that winning feeling about next Saturday (providing no silly red cards or biased poor refereeing decisions) and I really really fancy us to leave February undefeated with one or two scalps to our belt...

David Moyes, Manager of the Month February 2010 — mark my words!

Andy Crooks
3 Posted 31/01/2010 at 23:58:33

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John... "never so confident about a group of fixtures" — Don’t be silly, we are Everton.

Keith Slinger
4 Posted 01/02/2010 at 06:58:45

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Last season, Villa were 11 points ahead of us during the run in and we caught them up, we can do it! COYB

Gavin Ramejkis
5 Posted 01/02/2010 at 07:49:07

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Keith, last season we only had one contender, this year we have three. The team is playing a lot better but we have no control over any of their results besides our own games against Spurs and Villa.

I’d love to say we will do the RS but at 40 years old I’ve had years of seeing us getting shafted by shite ref decisions year after year and in the home game we should have beaten the spawn of Satan yet still lost.

Jimmy Fazackerley
6 Posted 01/02/2010 at 11:05:26

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Gavin. I agree with you about there being three contenders, but I expect two of them to hit the skids in the coming weeks.

Hopefully we have finally turned the corner on the injury front and maybe get to 7th. This months fixtures are what the Prem is all about. Just ask the Barcodes.

Jay Harris
7 Posted 01/02/2010 at 13:41:18

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Villa have got to be our target again. Hopefully they will fall away like last year. O'Neill seems to have acquired "Moyes" syndrome where his team put so much effort into the first ¾ of the season they are done for the last ¼. Hopefully we will not suffer the same syndrome as we have players returning from injury and youngsters pushing for places (Coleman, Gosling, Rodwell, Duffy etc.).

Spurs seem to have the "Arry factor" and I do not see us catching them this year... and regrettably City will be a bridge too far.

The FA and officials will give the RS as much help as possible so I don't see us catching them either. However, nothing is certain and we should not forget Fulham and Birmingham.

Norman Merrill
8 Posted 01/02/2010 at 13:31:26

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Phil, The next four games are are mouth-watering, and I am sure David Moyes and the players can’t wait.

The derby game coming next will I hope be the first of some great results, we are due a victory at Anfield, and I am sure the players will not need any motivation.

Mike Oates
9 Posted 01/02/2010 at 16:55:03

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Hope I’m wrong but, even though we have definitely turned the corner, I still get this nagging feeling that we are too easy to open up when teams counter-attack us. Just look at the number of reasonably clean-cut chances we are giving away in matches — Birmingham, last 10 mins vs Sunderland and against Wigan on Saturday. The " better" teams over the next few weeks will surely convert these opportunities into goals.

I think we’ll do well to reach about 59 points and have to settle for at best 6th, probably 7th, and hope one of the 4 above us at present — Pool, City, Villa or Spurs have a very bad run and/or the 2 Cups are won by the Top 6 and we get the last spot in Europa League.

Moyes is absolutely right, it's imperative to qualify for Europe, there are too many possible consequences re players and staff staying if we don't.

Iain Love
10 Posted 01/02/2010 at 17:53:51

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Decent article in news links gives us 61 points, sounds about right... I still think Villa & Birmingham will implode, leaving us 7th. Which 2 months ago I would have doubted.

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