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Europe... now very very difficult

We received a real hammer blow to our chances of getting into Europe for the 2010-11 season. At the end of the Matchday thread, Eugene Ruane asked the rules for Qualification:

The top 3 automatically go into the group stages of the Champions League. We know already that this will be Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal.

There are then 2 more guaranteed places for Europe. 4th place goes into a final Champions League qualifying round - win you are in, lose you are the Europa League. 5th place is in the Europa League.

If the team that wins the Carling Cup is NOT one of the top 5, then they go in the Europa League. But if the winners are in the top 5, then that Europa League place goes to the team 6th in the League. Runners up in the Carling Cup has no European Qualification.

The FA Cup is different. The winners get a Europa League place, but if they have already qualified for Europe, then the Runners-up get the final Europa League place. If both of them have qualified for Europe, then the final Europa League place goes to the team who finishes 7th in the League (Like Fulham last year).

So where does that leave us? We have 5 clubs, Villa, Spurs, City, Liverpool and Everton, all after 4 places. However now it is Spurs/Fulham or Pompey, then unless Spurs get to the final and finish in the top 6, then 7th won't even get a place.

So we need to finish 6th or higher to get into Europe. That will be a tough ask.

Just as a guide — assume last year's results, that would leave us in 8th, behind City on Goal Difference, 2 points back on Spurs and 3 on Villa. And our results last year we won 6, drew 3 lost 1.

Silver Lining? — we can concentrate on getting into Champions League for 2011-12 or never give up hope...
Phil Roberts, Kelsall Posted 07/03/2010 at 19:00:16

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Martin Clark
1 Posted 07/03/2010 at 22:59:58

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Birmingham is a massive game next week (as all the remaining games are) if we stand any chance of Europe! I feel we have to win it to finish 7th and that's hoping that 7th becomes available for Europe. We would need Liverpool to lose 8 more points than us, unless we score a shitload of goals. If not Liverpool, then the others have to drop more than 8 points though Villa are only four ahead but they have two games in hand.

It's a tall order but not impossible but we’d have to take our home form to away grounds. I’m not sure Everton are able to do that and Everton haven’t generally been the best at finishing the season strongly from memory... but we can only hope.

COYB

Martin Clark
2 Posted 08/03/2010 at 05:22:13

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After looking at the fixture lists for the teams chasing Europe, I think we may just end up short:

Liverpool 68
Villa 67
Spurs 66
Man City 65
Everton 65
B'ham 56
Fulham 54

I know it's only a prediction and I'm not winning the pools every week. I tried to be favourable to Everton. I believe we'll have to better 7 wins and 3 draws to get into Europe. It is possible but would need to be an unbelievable finale to the season!

If we could produce that form and carry it on next season we would surely be looking at Champions League qualification. Considering the start we had we would of been right in the mix with a few results turned around!

Is Europe Still possible? and if not would Everton be able to focus on the league next season, help us push for Champions league?

Eugene Ruane
3 Posted 08/03/2010 at 07:09:31

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Thanks Phil!

Mike Green
4 Posted 08/03/2010 at 07:20:03

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The issus is our away form — IMO we need wins at Villa Park and Eastlands to be in with a shout but I think both those clubs have done too much so far for us to catch them. I’d love to overtake Spurs though, their run-in’s horrendous.

Steve Guy
5 Posted 08/03/2010 at 08:31:37

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I know all the arguments for having the team playing in Europe, but, personally I’m beginning to think we would do well to avoid the Europa for at least next year.

A full season with the squad Moyes has assembled and without the distraction of that tournament could easily see us putting in a real push for 4th or better. We have been improving since before Christmas and should be capable of taking that momentum into next season. It’s still a small squad though, but one which could cope comfortably without the weekly grind of the Europa.

Kunal Desai
6 Posted 08/03/2010 at 13:25:00

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58-60 points is what we’ll probably end up with. Any other season that would be good enough to get us around 6th.
All top 3 sides have been vulnerable and have more dropped points against those placed 4th-7th than any other season.

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