FANS COMMENT

It's all relative

As the January transfer window opens it is interesting to read the recent contributions to the debate about David Moyes' success, or otherwise, in the transfer market. Whilst we all have differing opinions, there are still ways in which we can properly analyse Moyes' dealings which will give us a fair idea of his success rate.

To properly assess the success of David Moyes' transfers it is necessary not only to judge them on there own but to compare them to the quality of purchases of other managers at clubs in similar positions.

This is necessary because:-

1. Although we all wish we could have a manager who gets it right all, or at least most, of the time, none of even the most successful managers have proven to be infallible when it comes to their signings. I suggest that a good success rate at a club winning trophies is about 50%, and at a club with moderate success approximately 40%.
2. It is important to assess how many of a manager's buys have had to include an element of guesswork on behalf of the buying club. Successful clubs can buy proven players, making it unfair to compare the more successful clubs signings to that of a less successful club. For example, Alex Ferguson did not take a chance on a proven talent like Rooney in the same way that Moyes took a chance on first division players like Cahill or Lescott.

The only way to properly assess Moyes' judgement is to compare his success rate to a suitable contemporary. These could be previous Everton managers or recent managers of clubs that have had similar 'success'. It is important to remember that Everton are historically a very successful club but also that we are not the draw we once were for ambitious players.

Picking suitable clubs is difficult but some that seem to have spent similar amounts of money and had similar results over the last few years in the Premiership would, unfortunately, include Bolton, Spurs, and possibly Charlton (until this season). Whilst none of these clubs have Everton's pedigree, we have competed with them for player's signatures over recent seasons. I do not think that any recent managers of these clubs could consider more than 40% of their signings to have been a success.

Even applying this method a lot remains personal opinion. Personally, I think a signing like Kilbane, who I rate as at best an average player, must be ranked as a success due to the part he played in a successful season and the fact we sold him at a profit. In addition, he was a player who Moyes' took a chance after a poor spell at Sunderland presumably because of a lack of funds or alternative options.

Overall, I think Moyes' transfer dealings have been slightly above average in comparison with most other Premiership managers. The problem is that his great successes have been mostly bought from the lower leagues or have been relatively unknown foreign players. Johnson excepted, most of the 'big name' signings have been failures (take a bow, Big Lungs). The implications of this if we ever truly intend to make the step up and challenge for honours again are a little ominous. Then again, I'm not holding my breath.

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