ToffeeWeb - Season 2010-11

The Mail Bag

Arteta (and Cahill)

I was just preparing some of my betting strategies for the forthcoming season when I came across a video clip offering advice on Everton's forthcoming season from a betting point of view (on the Official Site). I find it quite amazing to learn that over the last 3 years Everton have lost less than 4% of matches and won over 60% of matches with Arteta and Cahill in the same side.

Okay, Okay, before I get shot down on here, I realise Arteta missed about a season in total and I reckon Cahill missed about a third a couple of years ago. But those are still very strong statistics if both can keep fit. Obviously Mikel is our best player and crowd favourite but it just proves how important Cahill has been and will be.

Lots on here are already suggesting Cahill no longer belongs in our strongest starting 11, but strong statistics suggest otherwise.
John Crook, Preston Posted 07/08/2010 at 20:53:53

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Ian McDowell
1 Posted 07/08/2010 at 22:38:38

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John I firmly believe Cahill deserves a place on his work rate and heading ability. Heading as an attribute is often overlooked I remember the champions league semi between Inter and Barcelona and Bojan missed a guilt edged header that 9/10 times our Timmy would of buried.

Richard Reeves
2 Posted 07/08/2010 at 22:27:03

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I am one of those people, John, who have said that Rodwell would be my prefered choice in midfield... although Cahill would probably get more goals at the moment. I think Cahill is underated as he offers a lot more than just goals and maybe we are a stronger team with Cahill and Arteta on the pitch at the same time, I don't know.

Cahill is a top player and I think all the so-called bigger clubs would want him but, in the past, like all players, he has dropped out of form... so, if that happens, now Moyes can replace him with Rodwell, Bily or whoever. I guess whoever is in form should start but your stat is interesting and it will be interesting to see how many games we win with Arteta and Cahill on the pitch.

Robert Moore
3 Posted 07/08/2010 at 22:59:52

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Can you post the link for that video, John?

Roberto Birquet
4 Posted 08/08/2010 at 00:12:18

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I logged in to the official site to check how we did in Germany, thinking well a draw'd be decent. Saw the 0-2 result, and thought "bummer" looked up the page http://www.evertonfc.com/news/archive/2010/08/07/exclusive-mikel-interview

Yyeeeeeeeeesdsdsssssssss ---- - yyeeeeeAaaaassssssssss!!!!

Ste Traverse
5 Posted 08/08/2010 at 00:18:54

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Arteta and Cahill are on the same wave length on the pitch (look at how many times Mikky has set up Cahill) and are great mates off it. So only losing 4% of the games they have played together shows their value to our side and how great it is that they'v both signed new deals.

Brendan O'Doherty
6 Posted 08/08/2010 at 02:18:05

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Cahill is an Everton legend who deserves to be and will be in the first 11. As you suggest John, we simply win more games when he is playing than when he is not. Of course DM is going to pick him.

After today's news Arteta is heading for the same legendary status. They seem to know each other's games pretty well.

Eric Myles
7 Posted 08/08/2010 at 05:17:00

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I'm not knocking Cahill but who was it who said "There's Lies, damn lies and statistics"?

It's only meaningful when compared to other statistics.

What was the % of wins with Arteta and Hibbert in the team say?

Or Cahill and Saha?

For example, 100% of the games we lost Tim Howard was in goal, so he must be a bad keeper, right??

Get the point?

Andy Amey
8 Posted 08/08/2010 at 09:53:11

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I think that Cahill and Arteta will both have important seasons for us this year. Cahill has frequently "popped up" with important goals, (far too frequently for it to be luck) and Arteta is undoubtedly a quality player who makes Everton tick.

Great news that they are both at our club for the next few seasons!

Stephen Kenny
9 Posted 08/08/2010 at 12:29:08

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When I think of our strongest team on paper I nearly always leave Tim on the bench. Then when I go the match and watch the work he put's in, how many headers he wins defensively (which is massive in the prem) and how much of a threat and a nuisance he is then i cant imagine us without him.

It says a lot that everyone in football knows how dangerous he is on set pieces, but still no one can mark him out and stop him!

Roberto Birquet
10 Posted 08/08/2010 at 15:10:36

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Eric Myles,
Get the point?
-------------------
not really, no.

Mike Green
11 Posted 08/08/2010 at 15:15:22

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Eric - great point, well made mate.

Roberto Birquet
12 Posted 08/08/2010 at 15:13:00

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To expand. Statistics may be misleading as other factors maybe behind the wins. But over four years, the probabiliy is that those factors would even out. Statistially, they would almost certainly do so.

I beleieve the man you are citing is US novelist Mark Twain. He noted people would choose statistical relationships to prove a point, ignoring oher factors and rejcting periods in which the stats indicate sth different.

But these stats are over three years - most of Arteta's time at Everton. And with many different strikers, midfielders and defenders in those teams, etc. The players certainly have an understanding on the pich.

The Tim Howard example you give is the wrong way round; putting effect first, factor second.

Eric Myles
13 Posted 09/08/2010 at 15:27:42

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Deliberately so Robert to show that 'statistics' don't mean anything in isolation, you have to compare them to other statistics.
An Arteta/Cahill win ratio 60% win ratio may be a bad result compared to other combinations in the team.
We need to see ALL combinations to judge.

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