Smarkets is a UK prediction-market and betting-exchange platform where users trade on the outcome of sports, political and other events. Prices are created by market participants and can be read as implied probabilities, but they should not be treated as guaranteed predictions of what will happen.
The current Smarkets product is presented on its own site as a prediction market that runs on exchange-style, peer-to-peer pricing, and users can either take an available price or set their own. This guide covers how prices are formed, how a trade is placed, what commission applies, how to access the platform on mobile, and what UK users need to know before opening an account.
What Is the Smarkets Prediction Market?
A Smarkets prediction market lets users take positions on the outcome of an event through an exchange, where participants effectively trade with one another rather than against fixed bookmaker prices. This is not a traditional sportsbook model.
Instead of a bookmaker setting every price, Smarkets runs a peer-to-peer structure in which the people using the exchange create the prices themselves. A market covers a specific event — a football match, an election, a tennis tie — and typically contains several possible outcomes, each with its own tradeable price. Those prices shift as traders place, adjust and remove orders.
Smarkets currently describes its own exchange as both a betting exchange and a prediction-market platform, and this dual framing runs through its UK-facing product, marketing and help documentation. In practice, sports, political and general current-affairs markets sit alongside each other on the same betting exchange structure, with the same trader-created pricing model applied throughout.
How Do Smarkets Prediction Markets Work?
To use a Smarkets prediction market, choose an event, select the outcome you want to trade and either accept an available market price or submit your own price.
- Click here and choose a sport, political event or other available market from the current listings.
- Select the specific outcome or contract you want to trade.
- Check the available price and what implied probability it represents.
- Decide whether to accept that price or submit your own preferred price instead.
- Enter your stake and place the order.
- Wait for the order to be matched with another participant — this is not guaranteed to happen instantly, or at all, if there isn’t enough opposing interest.
- Monitor the price, the depth of the market (liquidity) and your open position as the event approaches or gets underway.
- Where the market and available prices allow, trade out of the position before the event settles.
- If the position is still open at the end of the event, it settles according to the market’s rules and the actual result.
Smarkets’ own guidance describes this as choosing a category and event, then backing or laying an outcome, entering a stake or price, and placing the bet — with the app also built around user-set prices and the option to close a position early. Not every order fills straight away, and trading out isn’t always possible or profitable; it depends on what prices are currently available in that market.
What Do Smarkets Prediction Prices Mean?
Smarkets prices indicate the probability the market is currently assigning to an outcome, but they are not certain predictions. As traders place and change orders, prices move as the balance of opinion and money in that market changes.
Odds on the exchange can be converted into an implied probability using a simple calculation: divide 1 by the decimal odds, then multiply by 100 for a percentage. A price of 2.00, for example, implies roughly a 50% chance in the market’s current view — not a 50% guarantee of the outcome happening.
Because prices are set by the traders using the market rather than a single bookmaker, they can move quickly when new information arrives, when a well-backed order gets matched, or simply when sentiment shifts. A high implied probability still means the outcome can fail to happen.
| Market Price (Decimal Odds) | Implied Probability | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (example only) | ~50% (example) | The market currently sees this as roughly a coin-flip outcome |
| 1.50 (example only) | ~67% (example) | The market currently favours this outcome, but it is not certain |
| 4.00 (example only) | ~25% (example) | The market currently sees this as a less likely outcome |
All figures above are illustrative only and not live Smarkets prices.
Smarkets Commission and Current Welcome Offer
Smarkets charges a standard commission rate of 2% on net market profit — not on every individual bet, and not on markets where you make a net loss.
Two further tiers apply to a small number of high-activity accounts: a 1% Pro Tier for users who place more than 1,500 bets or stake over £1 million in a calendar month, and a 3% Select Tier applied to accounts with more than £25,000 in net profit over the previous 12 months. According to Smarkets, only a very small fraction of its customer base ever reaches these thresholds, and moving to the Pro Tier requires contacting customer service once an account crosses roughly 80% of a limit.
Alongside this, Smarkets currently runs a new-customer offer: 0% commission for 60 days using the code COMMFREE, on bets that settle within that period. This is worth checking directly on the Smarkets site immediately before publishing, since eligibility, deposit, and payment conditions can change.
| Item | Current Detail to Verify |
|---|---|
| Standard commission | 2% on net market profit |
| New-customer rate | 0% commission for 60 days |
| Promo code | COMMF*** |
| Minimum deposit | £10/€10 in a single payment, by debit card or instant banking |
| Eligible users | New UK, Ireland and Malta customers, 18+ |
| Payment exclusions | Skrill, Neteller, PayPal, Revolut, and virtual or prepaid cards (including virtual Monzo cards) typically do not qualify |
| Other restrictions | Existing SBK sportsbook customers, and accounts using API or trading software, are typically excluded |
As with any promotional offer, check the current Smarkets promotion terms directly before relying on any figure here, since deposit thresholds, excluded payment methods and eligibility rules are all subject to change.
Does Smarkets Actually Predict the Result?
No — Smarkets prediction markets do not guarantee or independently predict an event result.
The word “prediction” in this context can be misleading. What the platform actually displays is a price created through the collective trading activity of its users, not a forecast generated by Smarkets itself.
That price can offer a useful, real-time indication of how the market currently views an outcome’s likelihood, but it reacts to whatever information and behaviour is currently driving trading — including news, rumour, overreaction and thin liquidity in less popular markets.
Smarkets’ own educational content on betting-exchange odds is explicit about this: odds express an implied chance of an outcome, not a reliable forecast of the future. Readers should treat any market price as a snapshot of current trading sentiment rather than a statement of fact.
What Can You Trade on Smarkets Prediction Markets?
Smarkets prediction markets cover both sport and non-sport events, with current official material highlighting football, tennis, horse racing, and political and election markets among its core categories.
Sports coverage spans major football competitions, tennis tournaments, horse racing and a range of other sports, with in-play markets available on many events. Political and election markets sit alongside these, covering party performance, leadership contests and similar outcomes where relevant. Coverage of other current-affairs events also appears from time to time, depending on what’s happening in the news cycle.
Exact markets change constantly with the sporting calendar, election timetables and the news agenda, so treat any specific list as a snapshot rather than a permanent catalogue — check the live platform for what’s currently open to trade.
| Market Category | Examples to Verify | What the User Trades |
|---|---|---|
| Sports | Football, tennis, horse racing | Event or match outcomes |
| Politics | Elections, party and leadership markets | Political outcomes |
| Current affairs | Verify live categories | Defined event outcomes |
Backing, Laying and Setting Your Own Price on Smarkets
Smarkets allows users to back an outcome, lay an outcome, or submit their own price, which gives traders more control than simply accepting a fixed bookmaker quote.
Backing means taking a position that a specific outcome will happen — similar to a standard bet with a bookmaker. Laying means taking the opposite position: betting against an outcome happening, which means acting more like the bookmaker for that particular trade. Both require your order to be matched with an opposing trader before it becomes an active position.
Rather than only accepting the current best available price, users can also set their own price and wait for someone else to match it. An order like this can sit unmatched — partially or fully — until another trader accepts it, or it may not get matched at all if there’s no demand at that level.
Trading out lets a user adjust or close their exposure to a market before it settles, but the result depends entirely on what prices are currently available and how liquid the market is — it is not a guaranteed way to lock in profit.
| Action | Simple Meaning | Important Limitation |
|---|---|---|
| Back | Take a position for an outcome | Requires matching |
| Lay | Take a position against an outcome | Liability must be understood |
| Set price | Request a preferred price | Order may not be matched |
| Trade out | Change or close exposure | Result depends on available prices and liquidity |
Smarkets Prediction Market Charts, Liquidity and Trading Features
Smarkets provides tools such as a live order book and price charts to help users see available prices, previous trading activity and where market liquidity currently sits.
The main features built around this are:
- A live order book showing current back and lay prices at each level.
- Price charts, which can show historic execution prices and traded volume for a market.
- Market history, where available, for reviewing how a price has moved.
- Liquidity information, giving a sense of how much money is sitting in a market at various price points.
- The ability to set your own price rather than only taking what’s on offer.
- Alerts for order fills, settlement and significant price movement.
- Trade-out functionality for managing an open position before an event ends.
Liquidity simply refers to how much money is available to trade in a given market at a given price. A market with plenty of liquidity is easier to get matched in quickly and at a fair price; a thin, low-liquidity market can mean wider gaps between prices and orders that sit unmatched for longer. Liquidity varies significantly between popular events and niche ones — it is not uniform across the platform.
Can You Use Smarkets Prediction Markets on Mobile?
Yes. Smarkets provides mobile access to its prediction markets through dedicated apps for both Android and iOS, alongside the browser-based site.
The Android app is currently listed on Google Play as “Smarkets – Betting Exchange”, and the equivalent iOS listing on the Apple App Store is “Smarkets Betting Exchange” — both published by Smarkets. This differs from how Smarkets brands the product elsewhere on its own site and help centre, where “prediction market” is used as often as “betting exchange,” so it’s worth checking the exact current app-store title before publishing, since store listings can be renamed.
Both apps support core trading functions: placing and managing bets, viewing live price charts and the order book, receiving alerts, and logging in with fingerprint or Face ID plus two-factor authentication. As with any account, always download through the official Google Play Store or Apple App Store, or via a link from the official Smarkets site — never from an unofficial APK source.
| Platform | Availability | Download Source | What to Verify |
|---|---|---|---|
| Android | Confirmed | Google Play (official Smarkets Limited listing) | Current app name, version and UK availability |
| iPhone/iOS | Confirmed | Apple App Store (official Smarkets listing) | Current app name and device requirements |
| Browser | Available | Official Smarkets website | Feature differences from the app |
Is Smarkets a Prediction Market or a Betting Exchange?
Smarkets can reasonably be described using both terms, but UK users should understand the underlying mechanics as those of a betting exchange.
Smarkets’ own site currently brands the product as a prediction market, while its long-established UK offering operates as a betting exchange in the traditional sense: participants back and lay outcomes against one another, and Smarkets facilitates the market rather than setting prices itself. In this context, both descriptions point to the same participant-driven pricing model.
Wider press coverage has also picked up on this dual identity, with some outlets describing Smarkets as an event-based contract exchange operating within the UK’s broader prediction-market space. Whichever term is used, UK users are trading through a regulated gambling product, not a securities or investment platform.
How Is Smarkets Different From a Traditional Bookmaker?
The clearest practical difference is who sets the price. On Smarkets, prices come from the traders using the market, and a user can either accept the current price or set their own and wait to be matched. A traditional bookmaker publishes fixed odds that already build in a margin, and there is no option to lay an outcome or dictate your own price.
| Feature | Smarkets Prediction Market / Exchange | Traditional Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Who provides prices? | Market participants | Bookmaker |
| Can user set a price? | Yes, subject to being matched | Normally no |
| Back and lay | Both available | Usually back only |
| Trading out | Available where market and liquidity allow | Product-dependent |
| Main charging model | Commission on net profit | Margin built into the odds |
Smarkets charges commission only on net winnings within a market rather than baking a margin into every price, and trading out — closing or adjusting a position before an event ends — is available where the market has enough liquidity to support it. Neither model is universally better; the right choice depends on how a user wants to bet and how much control over pricing they want.
Smarkets prediction Registration and Verification Requirements
To use Smarkets in the UK, customers must meet the age and location requirements and complete the account checks required by the operator.
Registration involves providing your name, date of birth, address and email address, and verifying your email as part of account setup. Identity and address verification typically happen electronically where possible; where that’s not successful, Smarkets can request supporting documents, such as photo ID and a recent proof of address. Depending on account activity, some users may also be asked for additional information as part of standard regulatory checks — this doesn’t apply to every customer.
- Registration details (name, date of birth, address, email)
- Email verification
- Identity and address verification, usually electronic first
- Possible supporting documents if electronic checks are unsuccessful
- Possible additional regulatory checks, depending on account activity
Users must be 18 or over and meet current UK eligibility requirements, and it’s worth double-checking Smarkets’ current registration process directly, since exact requirements can be updated.
Is Smarkets Prediction Market Legal and Regulated in the UK?
Smarkets’ UK-facing exchange is operated under Gambling Commission regulation, but that does not remove the financial risks involved in gambling or trading on event outcomes.
Smarkets (Malta) Limited holds an active Betting Intermediary Remote licence from the UK Gambling Commission (account number 39173), which readers can verify directly on the Commission’s public register. Users must be 18 or over to hold an account. Smarkets also provides a range of safer-gambling tools, including deposit, loss and stake limits, time-outs and self-exclusion options through schemes such as GamStop.
Being regulated means the operator meets the Commission’s licensing standards — it doesn’t mean trading or betting on the platform is risk-free, and readers should treat this section as general information rather than legal advice. For a broader look at payments, service quality and support, see the full Smarkets review.
A quick note on responsible gambling: prediction-market prices are not guaranteed forecasts, and gambling always carries risk. Only stake money you can afford to lose, and use deposit limits, time-outs or self-exclusion tools if you ever feel your gambling is becoming a problem.
Learn More About Our Standards
We believe in transparency. That’s why we’ve created dedicated pages detailing our review and work frameworks:
- UK Responsible Gambling – How we ensure our betting content promotes safe and sustainable play.
- How We Rate Bookmakers in the UK – A deep dive into our scoring methodology and criteria.
- UK Payment Methods – A clear analysis of how we review and use payments methods in relation to bookmakers in the UK.
And you can always check the UK Gambling Commission for more information about betting.
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SMarkets Predictions – Popular FAQs
What is a Smarkets prediction market?
A Smarkets prediction market is an exchange where users take positions on the outcome of events such as sports or elections. Prices are formed through trading between market participants rather than being fixed solely by a bookmaker. Those prices can represent an implied probability, but they do not guarantee what will happen.
Is Smarkets a prediction market or a betting exchange?
Smarkets uses both descriptions for its product. Its current material describes the Smarkets exchange as a betting exchange and prediction-market platform, while the underlying UK model remains peer-to-peer exchange betting where users can take or set prices and trade against other participants.
Are Smarkets predictions accurate?
Smarkets market prices should not be treated as guaranteed predictions. They reflect the probability currently implied by trading activity and can change when new information or market activity shifts participants’ views. Even an outcome trading at a high implied probability can still fail to occur.
How do Smarkets prediction prices work?
Smarkets prices reflect the odds available in an exchange market and can be translated into an implied probability. Traders can take an available price or request another price, and the market can move as orders are matched and participants respond to changing information.
Can you trade political predictions on Smarkets?
Yes, Smarkets currently supports political and election-related markets alongside sports and other event categories. The exact political markets available change over time, so readers should check the live Smarkets platform rather than relying on an old list of election or leadership markets.
Does Smarkets have a prediction market app?
Yes. Smarkets publishes dedicated apps for both Android and iOS, currently listed on the app stores as “Smarkets – Betting Exchange.” App-store availability, exact naming and device requirements should still be checked immediately before publication, since listings can change.
Is Smarkets regulated in the UK?
Smarkets’ UK-facing exchange is currently connected to an active Gambling Commission Betting Intermediary Remote licence held by Smarkets (Malta) Limited (account number 39173). UK users must also meet age and account requirements. Regulation should not be presented as a guarantee against gambling losses or other financial risk.
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