Sweden vs Poland Predictions, Picks & Odds – 28/09/2026

UEFA Nations League · 2

28 Sep 2026 Louis Hecq

Sweden vs Poland – Best bets of the match

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Bonus info
Betfred	1.90	3.60	3.50	View odds
Ladbrokes	2.37	2.30	3.80	View Odds
Coral	2.40	2.30	3.80	View Odds
BoyleSports	1.83	3.75	3.75	View odds
William Hill	1.85	3.50	3.60	View Odds

Our prediction

1: Sweden to win

1.90 on Betfred

· Confidence Medium

Odds recorded on 26 Sep 2026 at 23:27 · Odds are subject to change

Sweden vs Poland Preview

Sweden return to home soil with a mixed recent record of one win, two draws, and two defeats across their last five outings. Yet the picture at home tells a different story entirely. During the previous Nations League campaign, the Swedes were devastating on their own patch, averaging over three goals per match while conceding barely a third of one. That prolific home form underpins confidence heading into this Group B4 opener against familiar foes.

Poland arrive carrying the sting of their World Cup play-off final defeat to Sweden in March, a 3-2 loss that ended their tournament hopes. Recent form has been inconsistent, with just one win in four matches. Head coach Jan Urban retained his position despite that setback, and Robert Lewandowski leads the squad once more, his motivation sharpened by personal disappointment. Notably, veteran Kamil Grosicki has retired from international duty, leaving a gap in experience on the flanks.

Recommended Bets

	Betfred	Ladbrokes	Coral
Sweden to win	1.90	2.37	2.40
Under 2.5	·	2.05	2.05
BTTS Yes	1.62	1.60	1.61

Odds recorded on 26 Sep 2026 at 23:27 · Odds are subject to change

Sweden's home record in the 2024/25 Nations League campaign is the cornerstone of this prediction. Across three home fixtures, the Swedes averaged 3.67 goals scored while conceding just 0.33 per match. Every single one of those matches cleared the 2.5 goal threshold. That attacking potency at home, paired with a resolute defensive showing, makes the home win at 1.90 the standout selection.

Poland's recent form offers little to inspire confidence away from home. Jan Urban's side have managed just one victory in their last four outings, suffering back-to-back defeats along the way. The emotional scars of that dramatic World Cup play-off final loss to Sweden in March will linger. Robert Lewandowski returns to the squad carrying personal motivation, but individual quality alone may not be enough to overturn structural frailties on the road.

The over 2.5 goals market at 1.75 also warrants serious attention given Sweden's prolific home scoring rate. With both teams to score priced at 1.62, there is a case for Poland finding the net through Lewandowski, yet the hosts should have enough firepower to prevail. A Swedish victory in a high-scoring affair looks the likeliest outcome on the balance of available evidence.