Everton have won just two games in eight in the Premier League.
They have taken just 2 points from home matches against Brentford, Wolves and Leeds United.
They have been without some key players for well over a month, and face the very real prospect of going the rest of the season without Jack Grealish.
And yet somehow, despite all the frustration and disappointment, they have picked up enough points to still be in the top half, just 3 points off the Top 6, and only 5 points behind 4th-place Manchester United.
Had Everton won on Monday, they would have moved into 7th place. As it is, they are 10th, but as the end of January approaches, they are right in the mix in one of the most congested races for European qualification in recent memory.
Just 10 points separate 4th place from 13th. Bournemouth are within two wins of 6th-place Liverpool.
There is a real opportunity here, because none of these teams really look capable of stringing together any kind of consistency.
Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United have the strongest squads of the bunch, and you would expect, when all things iron themselves out, that those three teams make up between 4th and 6th. But it is very likely European qualification will drop down to 7th, and there is a healthy chance that the 8th spot will be worth a place in next season’s Uefa Conference League.
So Everton are right in the mix. Whether you feel they are “ready” for Europe or not, or whether or not they are really good enough, is not the argument. They might not, on paper, be strong enough — but neither are Sunderland, or Brighton, or Bournemouth, or Fulham. And all of those teams are probably in the picture at the moment, too.
Opta’s supercomputer, which runs 10,000 predictions ahead of every matchday, ranks Everton’s Top 6 chances at 7.86%; their probability of a Top 7 finish stands at 14.83%, and the likelihood they are in the Top 8 come the end of May is 17.15%.
But this is with Everton’s current squad, and as mentioned, this is an Everton team that is only just getting some of its best players back, even if Grealish is going to be a big miss.
And this is an Everton team that has not been given any help, so far, in the January transfer window.
David Moyes continues to say that Everton are looking for opportunities in the market. They are drastically short at full-back, and now on the wings, and they are shorn of a back-up centre-forward that is capable of offering reliable support to Thierno Barry.
Could they get all of those positions of need filled in one winter window? Of course not, and that shouldn’t be expected.
But the seeming lack of urgency — or perhaps, even, just a tad too much caution — is frustrating, because there is a real opportunity here for Everton to get back where Moyes, and their fans, feel they belong.
Europe does not have to be the primary objective. But Everton are well clear of danger, and seasons like this do not come around every year. There is nothing wrong with having a rough aim, and a stretch target, and seeing where it ends up.
However, to achieve that stretch target, Everton’s squad needs a boost. It needs those one or two fresh faces, either on loan or cheaper deals, who are ready to come in and make an impact. Carlos Alcaraz is the perfect example — even if he had to work harder than perhaps he really should have had to, to earn Moyes’s trust, the Argentine came in last January and made his impact felt straight away, providing a versatile squad option and bringing energy and drive in midfield.
I wrote earlier this month that Everton could not allow their season to drift; even after the ups and downs of this dreary January, the campaign is still alive, just waiting for a spark.
Please, Everton, act. Do not be reckless; do not spend big money on a player now if you wouldn’t in the summer… but still, act. There are deals there to be done; players who would improve certain areas of this team (or squad), because the bar in those positions is so low.
Moyes has his critics, and some of that criticism is fair, but we should not lose perspective of how far Everton have come in a year. And the club should not let a fantastic opportunity pass them by, just because they were too caught up in ensuring the mistakes of yesteryear aren’t repeated.