Last summer, I did an article which predicted where Everton would finish, based on the comparative value of the playing squads — Premier League Squads: We will finish 12th. After a lot of twists and turns, I ended up being out by one place. Luck or skill or stating the bleeding obvious? You decide…
This summer, I have done a similar bit of guesswork and come up with a probable 9th-place finish (within a range of 8th to 12th).
Reasons below – with the (much despised?) TransferMarkt squad values as a bit of a guide as to the different tranches within the Premier League. I know TransferMarkt has its flaws but those same flaws affect all clubs in much the same way – and it’s independent too – which ToffeeWeb readers are not. So, warts and all, it does represent a decent guide but (as the analysis below shows) doesn’t tell the full story by any stretch.
€1B(+) squads
This is the super league that already exists. The seriously rich bastards with incredible squads and academies too. Might not all finish Top 4 mind you, but certainly should do. Chelsea are the weirdest amongst this lot but Man City are waning and no longer have anything like the best players anymore.
1. Arsenal
2. Manchester City
3. Chelsea
4. Liverpool
We won’t get into the Top 4 Premier League placings.
€700M to €920M squads
These are the pretenders to the Top 4. Spurs look very good out of this lot – with a manager who actually knows how to organise a defence now in charge of a very good squad closing in on the Top 4. In Muani, Tel, Simons and Kudus, they have added serious talent to an already strong squad appallingly managed (in the Premier League) by Postecoglou.
Man Utd continue to be weird. Newcastle are probably weaker without Isak, their one true world class player (and I don’t buy the idea that they’ve materially improved the quality of the squad overall). Whilst Spurs are looking up, Man Utd and Newcastle risk dropping down.
5. Tottenham Hotspur
6. Manchester Utd
7. Newcastle Utd
It seems very unlikely we would break into a Top 7 Premier League placing. There’s a gulf of €250M difference between Newcastle at the bottom of this tranche and us. That is two new right-backs, a holding midfielder, a new first-choice left-back, and a striker of real quality. It makes a big difference.
Getting Top 7 would require some very serious overperformance. There are likelier candidates than us in the tranches below. Still, stranger things have happened. If we pick up early momentum and get lucky with injuries, then it is possible.
€400M to €600M squads
Nottingham Forest are really going for it. Whether it is sustainable is another matter but they have continued the heavy year-on-year spending and now have a really good squad, ready for their European adventure and what appears to be an ambition to spend their way into a Big 8 (as West Ham and Villa have previously attempted). They might make the Top 7 again – but you also get the sense they are gambling their way into the Champions League – and if they don’t make it, they could be seriously screwed in a year or two.
Brighton are weaker than last year and the jury is out on Hurzeler. Aston Villa are sinking like a stone and are unlikely to get anywhere near 5th place this season. They seem to have helped prove my theory that money attracts players – not the Europa League. Crystal Palace and Brentford could have really difficult seasons ahead.
These three could struggle to make the Top 10 despite having good squads still, and some players who would certainly lift our side (Guehi, Munoz, Wharton, Mateta, Mitchell at Palace in particular). However, if you are no longer on an upward trajectory, you are on a downward trajectory — and (as we’ve seen) that is really tough.
8. Nottingham Forest
9. Brighton & Hove Albion
10. Aston Villa
11. Crystal Palace
12. Brentford
We should definitely kick on into this group – despite our squad being ranked in the tranche below. Indeed, some of these clubs (especially Brentford after Mbuemo and Frank… and possibly with an unhappy Wissa) could even find themselves in a relegation fight. We’re unlikely to finish above all of these clubs, however, since they do still have good players and / or good managers.
€300M to €400M squads
We are the only club in this group on an upward trajectory. Bournemouth have sold big and despite reinvesting, have not replaced with the same quality. However, they are still pretty good and have a good manager.
Fulham have weakened an already small squad and made essentially no replacements. Much will be expected of young Josh King. They will rely on Silva (a good manager) to keep them out of trouble.
West Ham and especially Wolves look shaky. The spending has stopped, many of the stars have gone (Kudus, Cunha and Ait Nouri).
13. Bournemouth
14. West Ham Utd
15. Everton
16. Wolverhampton Wanderers
17. Fulham
All of these bar us and Bournemouth are at genuine relegation risk. That said, West Ham still have Bowen and Paqueta and plenty of other good players. It would only be managerial incompetence from Potter that could take them down.
We have top quality in Pickford, Branthwaite, Grealish and Ndiaye – but glaring weakness at full back and a small squad overstocked with central midfield players (and light in other areas). Barry and Beto will be a handful and score goals but will also look rubbish at times. We look too slow and too narrow and it will cause us problems over the course of the season.
It has been a good window (especially by contrast with the extreme cost-cutting since 2021) – but a weird window too, let’s be honest. Although Mykolenko and O’Brien have their moments, they would be strong candidates for the worst full-back pairing in the Premier League.
It’s staggering we haven’t bought at least one right-back… just staggering. Maybe Moyes has seen something in Nathan Patterson or even Roman Dixon that meant we didn’t sign the player(s) we have appeared to need since Coleman broke his leg.
€240M to €300M squads
18. Leeds Utd
19. Sunderland
20. Burnley
Leeds are only €3.5M off having a £300M squad and a fully fit first XI is really not that far off us (as we saw from the close match-up – player for player – in our opening game).
Sunderland have a whole new (almost exclusively French-speaking) first XI, including some very good players who would walk into our First XI. Indeed, they have in Hulme, Geertruida and Mukiele – three right-backs who are all better than our (non-existent?) right-backs. Both Leeds and Sunderland have a decent chance of staying up (probably at the expense of Wolves).
Burnley have the weakest squad by some distance – and although they were mean defensively in the Championship, they just won’t be able to maintain that against the quality attacking sides of the Premier League. They will surely go down. Who cares though? The important thing is that we are well out of this now and should be nowhere near the relegation places for the course of the season.