Obviously, the focus here is on Everton, but we don’t play in a vacuum, we play in a very competitive Premier League where the opposition is also trying to improve each season – just as we are.
So, with the summer window yet to unfold, how is everyone else placed?
The Big 4 (1st – 4th)
The traditional “Big 6” has ceased to exist. It has probably reverted back to a Big 4 of clubs who have squads capable of competing for the title. These are: Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea.
Big squads, big wages, regular Champions League football, and good managers (except for Maresca who will do well to avoid the sack). We are not going to muscle into this space next season.
The Quite Big 4 (5th – 8th)
The next richest bunch of teams are a bit weird. Newcastle Utd look okay because they made the Champions League, have a good squad, and lots of money. Aston Villa look like they might hit PSR issues and that will have an impact on squad quality.
It is inconceivable surely that Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester Utd will be as pathetically bad as they were in 2024-25. They each have big squads with lots of very good players.
With Spurs, the obvious issue seemed to be Postecoglou’s lack of familiarity with the concept of defending. They should be relatively easy to fix. With Msn Utd, it seems like there is something rotten at the club and Amorim didn’t seem to be helping with unnecessarily clever (ie, daft) formations and tactics.
There’s a good chance that one or two of these clubs will, again, not make the Top 8. So who is best placed to pinch, say, 7th or 8th spot?
European Place Contenders (9th – 12th)
On paper, it should be West Ham Utd or Brighton & Hove Albion who muscle their way into the Top 8. Both of these two clubs have now invested very heavily in Champions League quality standard players – and Brighton in particular have a huge squad. They could field 3 different First XIs of Premier League standard.
However, each club has a ropey manager. Potter is really uninspiring (so glad we got Moyes). Hurzeler took over a very talented team that finished mid-table, added £230M worth of talent, and finished in more or less the same position. If that was Everton, the fans would be screaming abject incompetence and demanding his head (and possibly testicles).
Nottingham Forest are also well placed, given their strong 2024-25 season in which they eventually finished 7th (is that the Nuno Santos glass ceiling, I wonder?). They will probably struggle to replicate that unless they spend really big again (which I guess they might) – but they do have the added pressure of Europe too which usually hurts domestic form for more occasional qualifiers.
I’d like to say it’s Everton – but, being objective, the final club for this category is Bournemouth. Again, heavy year-on-year spending, a good and pretty big squad, and a good manager in Iraola. They’ve lost Huijsen and will probably lose Kerkez, but that will also bring big profit and the capacity to have another £100M spending spree.
However, there’s a good chance that two or even three of these could be overtaken by clubs in the next tier down. That includes Everton. of course – but it will be competitive.
The Outside Bets (13th – 17th)
I reckon these are our most immediate peers in terms of squad quality. That’s not to say we can’t finish higher – that’s not the point of the article. It’s more to look at how these clubs are all placed. I’ll therefore do a bit more analysis on these. They are:
Crystal Palace: Glasner is also a good manager. They struggled without the brilliant Olise last season but still have real class in Guehi, Eze, Wharton – and a consistent scorer in Mateta. Unless they lose some of these key players, they will be fine. If they spend money, as they have been doing, they could have a good season.
Fulham: Silva is a really good manager for them, and unlucky not to have been picked for the Spurs job. They have a good but not great squad. They probably won’t get sucked into a relegation fight, but need to improve the squad.
Brentford: It will be a big blow to lose Thomas Frank to Spurs, since he has shaped that side over many years. They could also lose the likes of Mbuemo and Wissa after such productive seasons. They have still got a good squad, having invested pretty heavily, but this is a season they could be fighting relegation.
Wolverhampton Wanderers: The “new manager bounce” worked well for them, but let’s see how he does across a full season. They have already lost their talisman, Cunha, who will be hard to replace. They could also lose excellent full-back Ait Nouri to Man City or somewhere else. Without them, Wolves look pretty average. Unless they spend really well, it could be a hard season for them too.
Relegation Favourites (18th – 20th)
We are no longer in the mix.
Leeds Utd: The best placed of the promoted teams to stay up. If they go big and have a circa £150M net spend, and we have a more modest £75M net spend, there may not be a massive difference between the quality of the squads (as was the case with Ipswich last season). My prediction is they sack Daniel Farke after shipping too many goals, hire Sean Dyche, and then stay up by the skin of their teeth.
Burnley: I understand that they are one of the most profitable clubs in the country – because they live off the parachute payments after relegation. They do not fear relegation, they almost embrace it. So I think they will play decent football, develop players for sale and then go down.
Sunderland: They will have their moments but won’t quite have enough for the Premier League. They should be nailed on to finish bottom.