I have mixed feelings. Over the course of the season, I’ve generally considered him a disappointment – but I do recognise that I am biased. I desperately want to see players of pace and talent in that right-midfield or right-wing position he occupies. For me, Harrison is far, far too boring. That said, I can see that he’s played a lot of games and done a job. So I thought it was worth a proper look into this.
Value
Valuations of players generally depend on the financial position of buying and selling clubs, how many bidders are in for the player and the player’s quality. I am assuming that: (a) we’ll remain cash strapped even if, as is very likely, we sell Branthwaite and Onana and someone better than Moshiri takes over; (b) Leeds need to sell; and (c) there won’t be many other interested parties.
All things being equal, therefore, his price tag could be pretty reasonable. Perhaps around the £15M mark. Anything lower than that would represent a pretty decent fee, I’d have said. Anything above that starts to look expensive for a cash-strapped club such as us.
The additional context is his age. At age 27 (28 not too deep into the new season) Harrison will not increase in value from here. Like Doucouré (and many others) it is likely that he will leave the club for nothing after seeing out at most a 3-year deal + possible 1-year contract extension.
That’s okay perhaps if the fee is low and he contributes in that period. But, if not, we are just robbing ourselves of a £15M (+) kitty to spend on someone better value. For example, other players for his position (or similar) in the Championship include the following – all under age 23:
· Rowe (Norwich)
· Whittaker (Plymouth)
· Gnonto (Leeds)
· Summerville (Leeds)
· Hutchison (Ipswich – on loan from Chelsea)
· Philogene (Hull)
· Clarke (Sunderland)
· Jun-Ho Bae (Stoke)
I doubt any of these players would cost more than between £15M to £22M – possibly a bit less in some cases. Not a lot more than the fee for Harrison. The pool of alternatives gets even bigger and possibly better value if you look overseas (although the risk of failure probably increases too).
But if successful, all of these players might occupy the position for between 6 to 8 years (rather than 3 to 4) – or might be sold in a couple of years for considerable sums if it works out. This either gives us long-term stability or allows us to reinvest in the squad more generally.
So what actually is his contribution? What makes Harrison worth more than the alternatives?
Stats
In terms of games, goals and assists it looks like this.
– Everton – Premier League 2023-24: 26 games (3 goals and 3 assists)
– Leeds – Premier League 2022-23: 36 games (5 goals and 7 assists)
– Leeds – Premier League 2021-22: 35 games (8 goals and 1 assist)
– Leeds – Premier League 2020-21:36 games (8 goals and 8 assists)
– Leeds – Championship 2019-20: 46 games (6 goals and 8 assists)
What does this tell us?
Firstly, that he’s probably settled down as a 10-ish goal contribution player over the course of a full Premier League season. If he plays in a kamikaze attacking set up, then he’ll contribute more goals and assists. But in an Everton Dyche side he’s probably going to get between 8 and 10.
That’s obviously not brilliant but it’s not terrible either. Indeed, it compares okay with players like Mudryk, Kulusevski, Mitoma and Anthony who all play for better sides and have less defensive responsibility.
It also puts him alongside players like Jacob Murphy (Newcastle), Antoine Semenyo (Bournemouth), Bobby Decordova-Reid and Harry Wilson (both Fulham) and even exciting talents like Noni Madueke (Chelsea) and Simon Adingra (Brighton). As a safe return even over just a 3- to 4-year period that’s a pretty good return on a low cost investment.
Performance
Beyond the statistics, we have to look at what the eye tells us.
In a positive sense, he gives us a lot of hard work. He is a very diligent right-winger or right-midfield player and puts in a real defensive shift. In some respects, this has been invaluable given our weakness at right-back.
In a negative sense, it is often very difficult to see any material contribution from an attacking point of view. He is very slow and lacks the technique to compensate for this. He struggles to reach balls played ahead of him and he struggles to make space when the ball is played to feet. These are a seriously limiting combination of weaknesses. His limitations in such a crucial position are really hurting our ability to play on the front foot and score even more goals. Hence my bias!
Despite the modest goal contributions and inconsistency, players like Mudryk and Mitoma and Neto are a thorn in the opposition side with pace, trickery and movement. They force the opposition onto the back foot and make them defend. Harrison is exactly the opposite, his lack of pace and trickery as well as his diligence draws the opposition onto us and leaves him playing more like an auxiliary full-back for much of each game.
This is exacerbated by other factors:
1. Our now long-standing problems in the right-back position (ie, there is no-one to overlap on the outside when Harrison cuts in on his left);
2. The lack of pace on our left flank in McNeil (even though I think McNeil is good);
3. The lack of pace and quality in our attacking midfield player, Doucouré (even though Doucouré can, in spite of his own serious limitations, be effective).
Conclusion
With sadness in my heart, I think he probably is worth buying, especially if we can drive a hard bargain with cash-strapped Leeds.
However, if we do so we surely have to, as a priority, buy a right back of quality and ability and engine to get up and down the flank. Sadly, it does not look like Patterson is going to be that guy so we have to move on. There are plenty of fish in the sea.
It may also be worth switching McNeil into Doucouré’s position and getting a fast winger or forward on the left flank. Someone who can run in behind and worry the opposition with their pace and attacking threat – like Richarlison used to from that position (while still putting in a decent defensive shift). I think that was probably the intention with Danjuma but I expect he just didn’t work hard enough.
If Dyche and Thelwell can get this right this summer, it may enable us to play more constructive attacking football next season and harness the (not exactly thrilling) best of Harrison without exposing his weaknesses too much. Otherwise, we’ll just end up with a plodding attack with an auxiliary full-back at right-wing rapidly deteriorating in value. And that would annoy me.