Thierno Barry has given Everton plenty of reasons for optimism heading into the international break, with four goals across three Everton wins helping to change the perception of a striker whose first season was a struggle.
There were many in the summer that felt Everton needed an upgrade on Barry. Some still do, but there’s no doubt the Frenchman has shown signs of real progress. He’s scored 10 goals in 13 appearances across all competitions, already eclipsing an eight-goal haul from 41 matches last season, and is the third-highest scorer in the Premier League. The players above him are Erling Haaland, arguably the best centre-forward in the world right now, and Alexander Isak, the most expensive signing in British football history.
The raw numbers are good, even if the optics tell us all that Barry remains a work in progress. But that should come as no surprise. Barry has not had a conventional route to the Premier League. There has been no grounding in an elite academy, instead a step-by-step climb to world football’s toughest domestic league. Each season he’s taken another step, from France’s fifth tier to Belgium’s second, to Switzerland, Spain, and eventually Hill Dickinson Stadium. This season, his second in the Premier League, has been upward again.
Barry’s underlying numbers are excellent. He’s the Premier League leader for shots on target, headed goals, touches in the opposition box, and aerial duels won per 90 minutes. For a David Moyes target man, those are arguably the metrics he needs to shine. Barry’s also second for Expected Goals and Non-penalty Expected Goals, and fourth for overall duels won. It all makes for positive reading.
Moyes has stated he believes Barry will improve with age. When assessing Barry against centre-forwards in his own age group, the numbers are even better.
He leads all Premier League forwards aged 24 or under for goals, non-penalty goals, expected goals, non-penalty expected goals, shots on target percentage, aerial duels won, and goal conversion percentage (19.35%).
That latter metric is particularly of note, given concerns about missed chances this season. Barry does miss opportunities, with league-leading figures for ‘big chances missed’ and xG under-performance, but equally, no forward in his age bracket is turning a higher percentage of shots into goals.
In essence, Barry is finding himself in good goalscoring areas, often. Brentford majority shareholder Matthew Benham said earlier this year that the volume of chances, rather than the conversion, was key to his club’s data analysis. Few clubs have recruited forwards with such success in recent campaigns, with Brentford having four different attackers score 19+ league goals in a Premier League campaign in the last four seasons alone. Everton, in contrast, have had only Romelu Lukaku reach that number in the last 40 years.
Speaking at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, Benham explained the logic: “There is an awful amount of randomness in finishing. So, for example, if you show me two players at a similar level and they both scored 15 goals last season but one of them had twice the number of chances, I want the guy who’s had twice the number of chances.
“When we played Everton at our place late last year, Beto missed three one-on-ones. Any decent model worth its salt would give Beto an upgrade. Any player who manages to make three one-on-ones in a single game, even if he actually happens to miss them.
“And typically, with a one-on-one, you’re like 50/50 to score. The fact that he’s got three one-on-ones, he’s got to get an upgrade on any decent model. Obviously, the man in the street would slate him, but actually receiving is more important than finishing.”
One of the biggest gripes about Barry has been his hold-up. All too often it fails to stick, and a directness from Everton can contribute. The numbers suggest Barry’s ability to deal with direct balls forward is better than he’s often given credit for.
Among forwards in the Premier League this season, Barry ranks eighth for the number of times first contact is made with a long ball. The leader, perhaps unsurprisingly, is Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
Similarly, it should come as no surprise that Sunderland striker Brian Brobbey has the highest percentage when it comes to his team retaining possession after first contact is made on a long ball (described as launched from inside a team’s own half).
Sunderland retain possession almost 80% of the time Brobbey is first to a long ball, far higher than the divisional average of 53%. Barry, however, is well above the median at around 65%. Only Brobbey, Taiwo Awoniyi, Erling Haaland and Joao Pedro score better. Calvert-Lewin, for contrast, sits around the average.
The challenge now is for Barry to sustain these numbers over an extended period. The statistics show promising signs, but the eye test tells us there’s still plenty of scope for improvement.
Everton also have a duty to bring in competition. Barry has handled the season’s demands well so far, but the Blues cannot afford for him to dip or tire without an adequate alternative.
Barry wasn’t bought as the finished article, but he’s showing this season why his development deserves some patience.
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