Italy vs Türkiye Predictions, Picks & Odds – 05/10/2026

UEFA Nations League · 4

05 Oct 2026 Louis Hecq

Italy vs Türkiye – Best bets of the match

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Bonus info
7bet	1.36	4.75	7.50	View odds
Betfred	1.40	5.00	7.00	View odds
Ladbrokes	1.80	2.62	5.50	View Odds
Coral	1.80	2.62	5.50	View Odds
BoyleSports	1.40	4.75	6.50	View odds

Our prediction

1X: Double Chance Italy or Draw

1.36 on 7bet

· Confidence Medium

Odds recorded on 05 Oct 2026 at 16:41 · Odds are subject to change

Italy vs Türkiye Preview

Italy enter this fixture in a period of considerable transition under Roberto Mancini, who has returned to the bench tasked with rebuilding following the Azzurri's failure to reach the 2026 World Cup. Their Nations League campaign opened with a sobering 2-0 home defeat to Belgium, and Mancini has opted to rest ten players, including Nicolò Barella, for this clash. The coach has spoken candidly about a lack of generational talent, urging patience during this renewal phase.

Türkiye arrive in similarly difficult circumstances after a narrow 1-0 loss to France on matchday one. Vincenzo Montella, the Italian-born coach, survived calls for his dismissal following a disappointing World Cup qualifying cycle, retained largely on the strength of reaching the Euro 2024 quarter-finals. Injuries have thinned his squad further, though Montella has expressed full confidence in the players at his disposal. Two consecutive wins prior to the France defeat suggest his side carry genuine momentum into this encounter.

Recommended Bets

	7bet	Betfred	Ladbrokes
Italy to win	1.36	1.40	1.80
Under 2.5	2.40	·	2.40
BTTS Yes	1.78	1.73	1.73

Odds recorded on 05 Oct 2026 at 16:41 · Odds are subject to change

Italy's head-to-head dominance over Türkiye is remarkable: nine victories and four draws across thirteen meetings, with the Crescent Stars never once tasting success against the Azzurri. That historical weight underpins our 1X selection at 1.36. Even in a rebuilding phase, Italy possess the pedigree and home advantage to avoid defeat here.

Both sides opened their Nations League campaigns with losses, Italy falling 2-0 to Belgium and Türkiye edged out 1-0 by France. Mancini has opted to rest ten players, including Nicolò Barella, for this fixture, prioritising squad management amid a congested calendar. Montella, meanwhile, is battling injuries but retains full confidence in his available options.

The double chance covering a home win or draw represents the strongest value in this fixture. Italy's historical supremacy makes a Türkiye victory extremely unlikely, while Montella's squad depth concerns and injury troubles further tilt the balance. A draw remains plausible given Italy's transitional squad, but the Azzurri should not lose at 4.75. Questo articolo è a scopo informativo e non costituisce una raccomandazione di gioco.