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So how are we doing?

By David Whitwell :  09/10/2007 :  Comments (1) :

Okay this is subjective but if you follow the logic it helps to access our start to the season without being emotive about our last result!

Lets start by thinking what is good this season, I would suggest that 60 points or above would represent a good season, looking back the last time a team finished outside the top 6 on 60 points was in 1995/96, when both Blackburn & Tottenham finished behind Everton on goal difference, accumulating 61 points.

I think most of us agree that the premiership now has 3 distinct sections, we will all have slightly different view on which teams are within which section, but here?s my stab. Top four would include all the 4 currently playing champions league football, the bottom 8 to include, Derby, Bolton, Fulham, Sunderland, Middlesborough, Wigan, Birmingham & Reading, leaving the remaining 8 being the ones which would have top 6 aspirations.

Leaving games against the top 4 aside I would suggest that we should be aiming to win all our home games, this is not utopia however, so lets allow ourselves to drop up to 6 points at home, therefore 15 games at 3 points = 45, less the 6 = 39 points.

I believe we should also be aiming to beat the bottom 8 away, giving us another 24 points, again lets assume we could drop 8 points here, leaving us with 16 points.

The away games against the other 8, our main competitors are the key to the 60 points and Europe, I would suggest that if all else were equal draws away against these guys are good results, that would give us another 8, again some will be lost and some won, so lets assume here we drop 3 of these leaving us with 5.

Great now we have 60 points and are probably back in the UEFA cup, can we make the champions league again, by my reckoning to do so means we would have to be picking up between 5 ? 10 points against the top four, providing we achieve everything else.

So to put into perspective

Target +/- +/- left Home - top 4 0 0 0 Home - Other 39 (2) 4 Away - Top 4 0 0 0 Away - Bottom 8 16 (3) 5 Away - Other 8 5 0 3

Therefore, dropped 2 against Blackburn, 3 at Reading, with defeats at Villa & Newcastle, cancelling 2 gained at Spurs.

Our start is okay, we are still on target for 60 points, the game that has really hurt us so far is the defeat at Reading, but lets not forget we can boost our buffers against the top 4, so come on the blues lets repeat last year?s 3-0 at Goodison!

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Jane Guest
1   Posted 10/10/2007 at 14:01:03

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A defeat at reading was unfortunate but not totally unexpected. Steve has assembled a good side down there in Berkshire and as already proved so far they have the abilites to upset anyone in this league. A repeat of last years hiding of the red shite looks distant especially as the instigator of that success will be unavailable. i can clearly remember the start of the 96/97 season. Some pundits even went as far as to say we were dark horses for the title following an opening day win over newcastle, mary poppins et al. Naturally it turned out to be a flash in the pan and by the end of season one of our most celebrated evertonians had been shown the door and we ended up lower mid table. I cant say and no one can how many points we amass this term but we have to try at least to get the three points against teams on paper at least we should be beating. And as for points, we still have the honour of points total for a top flight season (1985). another statistic to be proud of.

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