Little bit of fun again, just to get the juices flowing now that we know the new fixtures.
I wrote various articles last year (Unkind Fixtures and Latest Prediction) trying to predict Everton?s final points and approximate league position, based on some mathematical modelling, using team coefficients based on league positions, our history with them and incorporating a factor based on our last 3 fixtures ? ie we don?t do well in the 4th game if we?ve just played and probably lost or drawn to Utd, Liverpool and Chelsea. I update the model weekly based on that week?s result.
For the 2007-08 season, I forecasted 63 points and we got 65 points.
For the 2008-09 season, I originally forecasted 62 points, recalculated to 56 points after our disastrous start but we finally ended with 63 points after non-forecasted draws at Liverpool, Chelsea, Aston Villa, and the Fulham away win. It was an excellent 2nd half to the season.
So, all-in-all, it's not bad a forecasting tool.
Well, after flogging myself over the last few hours, I can now confidently predict that our final league points for the 2009-10 season will be 70 ? YES, 70 points! We once again have some unkind group fixtures, particularly during November and February. The real points come from the season?s September/October spell, when we should get 21 out of 27 points (Wigan to West Ham), and the end of season, when the model predicts 26 points from the last 10 fixtures ? I find this a wee bit difficult to accept but that's what the model predicts!
The model predicts 0 points in all games with the Top 4, and only 2 points in total from the first 3 games. The African Cup of Nations, January 10 ? 31, will potentially rob us of Yobo, Yakubu, and Pienaar and maybe more if we sign other African players. The forecast for this period at the moment is 9 points from 12 available.
The 70 points, if reached, will not gain us 4th place based on last season's league placings, and we do really need to get wins from some of the Top 4 games; do that and we could just sneak into 4th place.
It's not rocket science but, as stated above, a little bit of fun in what is a quiet period for us fans.
Arsenal H 0 Man C A 1 Burnley A 1 Wigan H 3 Fulham A 1 Blackburn H 3 Portsmouth A 3 Stoke H 3 Wolves H 3 Bolton A 3 Aston Villa H 1 West Ham A 1 Man U A 0 Liverpool H 0 Spurs H 0 Chelsea A 0 Hull A 3 Birmingham H 3 Sunderland A 3 Burnley H 3 Arsenal A 0 Man C H 3 Sunderland H 3 Wigan A 3 Liverpool A 0 Chelsea H 0 Man U H 0 Spurs A 0 Hull H 3 Birmingham A 3 Bolton H 3 Wolves A 3 West Ham H 3 Aston Villa A 1 Blackburn A 1 Fulham H 3 Stoke A 3 Portsmouth H 3
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1 Posted 19/06/2009 at 05:35:24
Secondly, I wonder if you could explain why in addition to the top 4 the model predicts the Spurs doing the double against us. That seems somwehat unlikely to me.
Finally, I would observe that some of the factors seem a little unscientific to me. While I am not sure how far back the "history with teams" feature goes, it seems to me illogical to say that the performances of Duncan Ferguson etc against Manchester City four years ago are likely to have an impact on the probability of our current squad beating their current squad.
2 Posted 19/06/2009 at 05:44:20
Also, one thing Moyes has achieved is preventing the team succumbing to back-to-back losses (how long has it been now?).... and you?ve got four in a row! Not once but twice!
3 Posted 19/06/2009 at 06:18:51
And what about shit refereeing decisions? Clattenburg ?A? times by hostile crowd ?B? minus FA incompetence in getting rid of the twat.
4 Posted 19/06/2009 at 06:24:30
I predict we?ll get 69 points next season ? and Finland will win the Eurovision Song Contest!
5 Posted 19/06/2009 at 08:20:56
6 Posted 19/06/2009 at 09:28:28
Unfortunately we are Everton and we are always capable of getting a result against the odds and screwing up at wigan on a cold Monday evening.
70 points woudln’t be far off 4th though.
7 Posted 19/06/2009 at 10:44:32
8 Posted 19/06/2009 at 11:10:49
My "what I think will happen" method has us gaining 71 points... (Yes, I'm an optimtist)... but, as mentioned above... not enough for CL...
9 Posted 19/06/2009 at 11:26:17
My point is this, as a club now, we have a good core (this is about the team, not a club staff/owner question). With at least one BIG signings and the usual 1 year (prove your worth is you want a contract) loans. We could really make a crack at the top 4 more than ever. Next season no team with big money (City, Pompey... who gives a fuck) won’t have enough time to properly bed their major signings in, so for them,their eye will be on building next season and really looking for silverware the following term. Our nearest realistic rivals are Villa. Ok they’ve got a lot more money, but they have to replace Laursen and Barry this summer. Next season will be massive for us, the thing we need to moves us on, is a huge signing. It doesn’t even have to be financialy massive (If van nistelrooy was available for1.2m?) We need that extra presence in centre/right mid-field.
Sso who is available? Of course I don’t know everyone but Wesley Schneider, Rafael Van der Vaart, JOAO MOUTINHO, Miguel Veloso.... fuckit, I would even take a punt on that RS Ryan Babel.... ok I might regret that one...
Conclusion: Buy Moutinho and lets move this club on to the next level. We can do this and next season may possibly be our greatest opporunity to do it
10 Posted 19/06/2009 at 12:14:07
11 Posted 19/06/2009 at 12:34:07
12 Posted 19/06/2009 at 15:15:04
13 Posted 19/06/2009 at 15:34:40
Not sure what that proves - the human element? - but it is better than it looks as I can only be right once per game but can be wrong twice.
14 Posted 19/06/2009 at 18:26:39
Can I give you a bell when I’m filling in my fixed odds coupon?
With those sort of results we’ll own William Hills in a fortnight...
15 Posted 19/06/2009 at 20:29:40
Also if you have us down to lose both home and away against the shit 4 then I assume you have applied the same to every other team in the league. Of course this then means that you consider them pretty much unbeatable.
My only prediction for this season is that we will either take fourth place or get to the final of the UEFA cup or whatever it’s called these days.
16 Posted 19/06/2009 at 21:40:21
Robert, please confirm.
17 Posted 20/06/2009 at 05:09:13
Mike’s probably not that far off. I would think most agree we’re on the up.
As I see it, the reason 70 won’t be enough is the Sky 4 are going to just run away with it next season. The EPL is as "weak" as it’s ever been, and the gulf between the top 4 and the rest is growing by leaps and bounds.
I do think we are the only team that has a snowball’s chance in Hell of busting in.
Man City has money and no direction.
Villa’s shown their true colors second half and has no depth.
Spurs.... please. They are perenial (sp?) pretty picks, but are always short...
We’re it for busting the Top 4, and with some health and fortune I for one am keeping Hope alive.
18 Posted 20/06/2009 at 16:35:37
19 Posted 20/06/2009 at 20:41:13
20 Posted 21/06/2009 at 11:14:53
21 Posted 21/06/2009 at 12:55:14
I also think Man City are going to be the unpredictable factor in the league this year. People seem to be dismissing them out of hand but I?m not so sure. I?ll be surprised if all that money doesn?t get them into the top six and again I think they have the best chance (if they get it right) of shaking up the top four.
It's going to be interesting regards Man Utd and Liverpool. It's difficult to see who Man Utd can bring in as a replacement for Ronaldo and Tevez will be a big loss. As for Liverpool, they may need to replace most of their midfield. It's all very interesting at the moment.
As for the mighty Blues, I think a lot will depend on our ability to hang onto Roger. If City come up with £20M for him, I think Moyes will cash in. It may not be such a bad thing. I think we could find something decent for £5 or 6M, maybe that Russian we seem to sniffing around. He?s not old at 29 for a centre-back and he?s got lots of experience. He?d be good for 3 or 4 years.
We may then have money to strengthen other parts of the team. I haven?t got a formula but being an Evertonian I have two fingers firmly crossed.
22 Posted 24/06/2009 at 04:13:22
23 Posted 24/06/2009 at 10:52:30
It is all conjecture as noone has any idea who will be playing for who next season, with Manure, City, Sunderland, Villa and Spurs (again) having to make major changes this summer. Add this to the three new clubs and new managers at Wigan, Portsmouth and Chelsea and you have over half of our opponents who are currently difficult to predict against.
24 Posted 25/06/2009 at 10:57:26
I got 72pts. I expect us to get a few more draws.
Even for the sake of honesty I could NEVER allow myself to predict we get NOTHING against the shite.
I just couldn’t bring myself to do it....