Up to around 50% of all comment on ToffeeWeb is about Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s low scoring (and the low scoring of his replacements). Unfortunately, it’s just the latest chapter in a tragic tale of non-scoring strikers throughout our Premier League history. Good sides have strikers capable of scoring more than 20 goals in a season. Since we aren’t a good side, we don’t.
Despite being ever-present in the Premier League for the 30+ seasons since 1992, we have had a forward who scored more than 20 goals on just one occasion – and we’ve only had a forward hit 15 or more goals on 6 other occasions:
2020-21: Calvert-Lewin (16)
2016-17: Lukaku (25)
2015-16: Lukaku (18)
2013-13: Lukaku (15)
2007-08: Yakubu (15)
1995-96: Kanchelskis (16)
1993-94: Cottee (16)
This consistently atrocious record is despite (generally unwisely) spending decent sums on the likes of Ferguson, Amokachi, Radzinski, Bakayoko, Beattie and Johnson and having decently talented strikers like Rooney, Campbell, Jelavic, Jeffers and Saha at our disposal.
Why is this?
Well, part of the issue is quality. Only Lukaku, Kanchelskis, a teenage Rooney and (maybe) a non-injured Saha had genuine Champions League standard ability (and Kanchelskis wasn’t even a striker). That is an appalling indictment on the last 30+ years.
We have also been taking a very short-term view when it comes to strikers, often trying to buy someone we can afford who is in form (or just someone we can afford irrespective of form). And since we can only afford very mediocre ready-made players, we end up with a very mediocre striker as a result. That very mediocre striker then gets stuck in a crap side and the goals peter out.
But I think there are two other issues:
- Fear of the often very real threat of relegation (which I think we fear more than any other club); and
- Use of extremely conservative, safety-first football to fend off relegation.
Together, this really takes its toll on the team mentally. It also means that chances (sometimes numerous, sometimes not) are being ground out through perspiration rather than inspiration. When the moment comes to pull the trigger, players are anxious or mentally exhausted.
Not for us the likes of Michu, Ravanelli, Okocha, Mahrez, DiCanio, Payet, Krancjar, Carbone etc of clubs that have dared to try but ended up relegated. We get the likes of Phil Neville, and stay up through attrition. It’s always attrition and it’s exhausting. Even when we’ve had decent sides, we’ve still been uber-conservative.
I remember a very defensive 4-5-1 formation at home to Reading under David Moyes and the opposition of Doyle, Sidwell and Hunt passed a decent Everton team off the park. It is one of many, many examples of horrible football from a string of managers over many years – Royle, Smith, Moyes, Ancelotti, Allardyce, Benitez, Lampard and Dyche.
What have been the exceptions? And what did we do right on those occasions?
Looking at the statistics and judging by eye, the exception is the Martinez era. This is the one sustained period of our Premier League history where we attempted to big a big club and play front foot football. Martinez accepted that players like Barkley and Deulofeu had defensive weakness, but he prized their attacking ability over defensive solidity.
He also made sure that we had front-foot footballers right throughout the side, including Stones at cenre-back, adventurous full-backs, and an attacking trio up front (sometimes an attacking quartet). We were set up to score (alas forgetting how to defend in the process).
Otherwise, our strikers have hit decent form on two of the occasions when the squad was quite expensively assembled (Calvert-Lewin and Kanchelskis) or a patiently developed squad spent money on a good striker as the icing on the cake (Yakubu). In all of these situations, it wasn’t a one-man team – it was a genuinely talented squad with options as an attacking outfit.
And if you can afford to spend big money on a striker then that helps too. The £11M spent on Yakubu and £28M spent on Lukaku probably represents something like the £60M+ it would take to buy a comparable player like Ivan Toney now. Inflation has run very high indeed in transfer fees and wages.
How does this compare to now?
Firstly, we have no money for a new striker of any note (or perhaps at all). But that’s not necessarily the big problem. Although he is an extremely unpopular player with a large proportion of fans, Calvert-Lewin is capable of scoring around 15 goals a season in a well assembled side – one with creativity in midfield, good full-back play and decent, fast wingers like Sigurdsson, Baines, Coleman (in his prime), Richarlison and Kanchelskis.
Unfortunately, whilst Doucouré is effective, he is a talentless athlete. On the left flank, McNeil has good delivery but is very slow, and Mykolenko is excellent defensively but quite poor going forward. The right flank is absolutely abysmal, offering almost nothing from an attacking point of view.
Hence you can see why Calvert-Lewin is currently tasked with being a battering ram to force set-pieces or create space for Doucouré. He’s good at this (as highlighted by Doucoure’s goal return) but, when he operates this way, he stops scoring. The xG shows this, and you can see in matches that he (and Beto) are snatching at hard-fought (and fairly numerous) chances, high on anxiety and low on confidence.
How do we resolve this?
The only players we have who might possibly make a difference are Danjuma and Patterson. Both are the sorts of players Martinez would have used, given their attacking ability, accepting that they leave you weaker in defence. Clearly both are very hit-and-miss when they play, but perhaps they are playing in a team set up incorrectly for them. However, I’m not convinced we have the personnel to set up the team correctly for them. So I do understand why Dyche is so uber-conservative and defensive.
Ultimately, there isn’t an easy fix with the current squad. Somehow, Dyche and Thelwell will only resolve this is if they can “do a Martinez” in the transfer market this summer and acquire front-foot players with speed and ability on the flanks (including right-back), and in the position currently occupied by Doucouré.
This will need a bit of the old Sin Miedo spirit, the proceeds from selling Onana, and careful thought as to how to construct a side capable of creating goals, and not just forcing opportunities.
Back in the day, Martinez brought through Barkley and Stones, and brought in Lukaku (loan), Barry (free), McCarthy (£13M) and Deulofeu (loan). I don’t believe we currently have any youth prospects capable of emulating even Tom Davies, let alone Barkley and Stones.
But you could imagine us bringing in, say, Micah Hamilton of Man City and Ilman Ndiaye of Marseille to create a fast and talented front three with Calvert-Lewin. Controversial, I know, but I expect we might even look at Mason Greenwood too, perhaps on loan. Add a player like James McAtee also of Man City to the midfield to add a bit of quality on the ball.
Then a right-back like, say Rensch of Ajax, and you suddenly have a side with the pace and quality on the ball to play front-foot football. It would of course also be an inexperienced side that might be quite hit-and-miss in terms of results (and critically, one that is hit-and-miss in terms of goals conceded) – but one that might develop into a quality attacking outfit.
That is almost certainly too much to hope for in one summer. But certainly it shouldn’t be too much to expect us to improve the abysmal right flank at the very least – and add a bit of pace and quality from somewhere. If we do that, we might suddenly find that the football is a bit better, the xG improves, and Calvert-Lewin (or Beto or whoever) is converting chances previously being missed.