Obviously, much of this depends on budget. I’m guessing we’ll spend more than we recoup in sales for the first time in nearly five years. This is a huge step forward from extreme and sustained cost-cutting. However, PSR and TFG’s other financial commitments mean that we’re unlikely to go on a spree of Brighton (€-229.96m) or Ipswich (€-150.23m) proportions.
So here’s a guess – we’ll end the summer transfer window with a net spend of about -€35m. It’s not a lot of money these days – not enough to buy an Archie Gray, an Elliot Anderson, a Georginio Rutter, an Ian Maatsen or a Max Kilman. Given the likely departures of possibly all of Calvert-Lewin, Broja, Lindstrom, Harrison, Doucoure, Mangala, Gueye, Keane, Young, Coleman, Virginia, Begovic – it really is a small kitty. Which is why I expect us (sadly) to sell Branthwaite. If we don’t, TFG will probably need to cough up a net spend of about -€100m. Hopefully, that happens, but I’m not banking on it in my educated guesswork.
And that educated guesswork also tries to second guess the sorts of players who might become available – and who Moyes/Thelwell might buy (based on past and recent experience a focus on players aged 22 to 26 with at least 100 games under their belt). It might all be nonsense but Ndiaye, O’Brien and Broja all featured in last year’s article along with quite a few close calls.
Anyway, look away now if you don’t like transfer speculation.
FIRST XI
Goalkeeper
Jordan Pickford
Hopefully, he stays despite rumoured interest from Bayern and a few others.
Right Back
Kyle Walker-Peters (Saints) – free
Seems a highly likely low-cost signing. He would give us our best right back since before Coleman broke his leg eight years ago. There’ll be plenty of competition for him though so we might have to look for other options.
Rumours: Lamptey (Brighton), van Ewijk (Coventry), Tchatchoua (Verona), Wesley (Flamengo).
More obvious possible options: Sildillia (Freiburg), Acheampong (Chelsea), Kumbedi (Lyon).
Left Back
Lief Davis (Ipswich) – free.
Also a likely signing. Wouldn’t be a huge surprise if Mykolenko moves on in the summer to generate a bit of a fee. He has his moments but there are better options out there.
Rumours: Truffert (Rennes).
More obvious possible options: Brown (Gent), Locko (Brest), Oosterwolde (Fenerbahce), DeCuyper (Club Brugge).
Centre Back (Right)
James Tarkowski
Not the most talented of players but hard as nails and very, very dependable. Where would we have been without him these past few years? And what a goal in the Derby!
Centre Back (Left)
Callum Doyle (loan from Man City with an option/obligation to buy).
Decent on the ball and mobile too, the big left-footed centre-back is an ideal replacement for Branthwaite. It would be great to keep Branthwaite, of course, and it may happen – but it looks more likely he’ll have to leave to fund the rebuild.
Rumours: Esteve (Burnley).
More obvious possible options: Zeze (Nantes), Marmol (Las Palmas), Herrando (Osasuna)
Defensive Mid
Santiago Hezze (Olympiakos).
Although very speculative, I could see Hezze coming in. He’s a good footballer and might strike up a good relationship with fellow Argentine Alcaraz. What I can’t see happening is us taking up the £33m option to buy Orel Mangala. It’s a shame because he has been good this season – but not good enough to risk such a big chunk of budget on. We might negotiate that fee down, I suppose, but buying deteriorating assets over 26 (with injuries to boot) is what has killed us financially. Probably best just to move on.
Rumoured: Neil (Sunderland)
More obvious possible options: Chotard (Montpellier), Brazhko (Dinamo Kiev), Costa (Mallorca), Stach (Hoffenheim), P.Maia (Sao Paulo), Onyedika (Club Brugge), Munoz (Osasuna).
Box-to-Box
James Garner. When fit, he’s good. Not brilliant but good – and certainly no great urgency for an upgrade.
Rumours: Diarra (Strasbourg), Dewsbury-Hall (Chelsea), Rohl (Freiburg).
More obvious possible options: Taylor (Ajax), Zafeiris (Slavia Prague), Dele-Bashiru (Lazio).
Attacking Mid
Dwight McNeil
Competing with Alcaraz, of course – who may end up taking this spot (especially with McNeil’s injury concerns).
Right Wing/Forward
Tom Fellows (West Brom) – about £18m
More obvious possible options: Lindstrom (Napoli) – although the Dane might have talent and speed he seems to lack the intensity we need. I think Moyes and Thelwell might think the £18m option to buy would be better spent on the much younger Fellows (off the back of a very productive season for West Brom).
Rumoured: Nuamah (Lyon), Chukwueze (AC Milan), Yilmaz (Galatasaray).
Left Wing/Forward
Iliman Ndiaye
Our best attacker by some distance. I know many would prefer him as a number 10 – but the left wing / forward is only a starting position on a piece of paper. He doesn’t need to be running up the line like Jason Wilcox, the point is to work with a full-back and interchange with the likes of McNeil, Alcaraz etc.
Striker
Beto
This might disappoint some, but it is extremely difficult to find a ready-made striker. Vast sums are being spent on players who fail to deliver like Hojlund and Nunez (both of whom Man Utd and the RS would gladly get rid of). It might be more cost-effective and productive to put up with Beto (an eight to 12-goal striker and maybe beyond) – and develop someone of real talent behind the scenes (see the second XI).
Rumours: Castro (Bologna), Pepi (PSV), Igamane (Rangers), Ferguson (Brighton).
Castro and Ferguson are undoubtedly talented but their stats are underwhelming. Castro has six goals in 30 this season in a fairly average Serie A. Ferguson’s best in a season is six. Now they are both young (20) and developing, and definitely have the style and talent for the Champions League – but it could take a few years before they are hitting more than about 8 to 10 league goals. Pepi and Igamane also have talent but the weakness of the Eredivisie and the SPL will flatter them.
Other possible options: Delap – but he’d be expensive, probably £45m(+) and may well get offers from Arsenal, Chelsea, Man Utd, the RS and other much richer clubs.
SECOND XI
This is where we are particularly dire and need to invest more heavily in players who can compete with and overtake our current first XI. We can’t continue to pad out the second XI with lower quality. It is money wasted even if it provides short-term cover. If anything, signings for the second XI should aim to be of higher quality but just lesser experience.
Goalkeeper
Joao Virginia
Makes sense to re-sign him if he’s willing. Otherwise, there will be plenty of very low-cost/free keepers available to play second fiddle to Pickford.
Right Back
Kabore (Man City). Very (very) fast RB who has now had various loans and is currently doing well at Werder Bremen playing Left Back which shows his (helpful) versatility. He may prefer a club with a nailed-on first-team spot though.
Rumours: Elias Jelert (Galatasaray) – loan or c.£5m fee.
Other possible options: Vagiannidis (Panathinaikos), Holm (Bologna) – both are out of contract. Otherwise, there are probably between about 25 and 50 players who we could credibly buy and develop for this position aged between about 18 and 23.
It looks like Patterson will return to Rangers and Roman Dixon would benefit from a Championship loan. Both of these players need a run of games at a good standard, and that’s not looking likely in the Premier League.
Left Back
Harry Amass (Man Utd) – loan or c. £5m or so.
The youngster is a very Baines-like player who needs a break. He won’t break through at Man Utd because they’ve just bought Dorgu and Leon for his position. But he could be an excellent signing for us.
As with right-backs, there are probably about 25 to 50 players who we could get for this position. No point spending a lot of money.
More obvious possible options: Rouhi (Juventus), Doig (Sassuolo).
Centre Back (Right)
Jake O’Brien
Good player and I am not trying to be disparaging by putting him in the second XI. But looks more like a long-term Tarkowski replacement than an immediate Branthwaite replacement. Nevertheless, a very good signing to bolster the squad with quality and promise over the long term. He may force his way into the First XI as a regular starter at CB soon. He’s done well as an emergency RB but that’s not his long-term position.
Centre Back (Left)
Your guess is as good as mine.
Seems unlikely we’ll be able to spend much money on a fourth centre-back, who won’t play much in any case (unless there’s a serious injury crisis).
As with full-backs, there are probably about 25 to 50 players who we could get for this position. A few random younger ones include Phillips (Spurs), Dweh (Viktoria Plzen), Zatterstrom (Malmo) and Traore (Caen). Might get an old head in for free though – like Ben Davies at Spurs who can also play left back.
Defensive Mid
Idrissa Gueye
Probably keep him for another season if he’s up for it. In remarkable shape for his age. I’m not a huge fan of him as a footballer but fair play, he’s doing well this season and still seems to have plenty of gas in the tank for an old fella. Loving his retro shorts also.
Box-to-Box
Tim Iroegbunam
Like O’Brien, a decent signing and it was a shame to see his development curtailed by injury. Another with an outside chance of forcing his way into the First XI as a regular starter. That’s how it should be.
Harrison Armstrong will probably continue his development on loan and hopefully come back better for it.
Attacking Mid
Carlos Alcaraz (Flamengo) – we’ll presumably take up the option to buy for what now appears to be a bargain price. Well done Thelwell for shopping at source in South America.
Right Wing/Forward
Doak (the RS). Could cost about £25m but this should be a sound investment long term. He’s done really well at Boro on loan and is ready to kick on and get games in the Premier League. Suspect that won’t happen at the RS – so maybe we can hold our nose and pay our horrible neighbours the money.
Might seem a lot for the Second XI but this and the corresponding left-wing/forward position is where we need to invest in genuine talent – because our attacking options are so limited and this position is where goals are scored and created from in the modern game.
Rumours: Akgun (Galatasaray), Weah (Juve).
More obvious possible options: Sulc (Viktoria Plzen), Rowe (Norwich / Marseille), Doan (Freiburg), Belloumi (Hull), Bobb (City), Hutchison (Ipswich).
Left Wing/Forward
I don’t think we can afford to make a major signing for both the right and left-wing/forward position. So here are a few options for the other side – but probably as an alternative to Doak rather than in addition.
More obvious possible options: Diouf (Slavia Prague), Sainz (Norwich), Zaragoza (Osasuna), Lauriente (Sassuolo), Boving (Sturm Graz), Konstantelias (PAOK), Orjasaeter (Sarpsborg).
But really if we were to have Doak, Fellows, Ndiaye and McNeil that would give us a decent blend in any case across the attacking third.
There’s a small chance that someone like Ebere or Benjamin might step up from the Academy too.
Striker
Ricardo Pepi (PSV) – c.£25m.
Potentially a very good striker (certainly more talented than Beto) – and strategically important commercially given the shirt sale opportunities in the USA. Lots of positives for TFG. He’s had a slow start to his career in Europe but is still very young would come off the back of a strong season with PSV. He also has the style of a Champions League striker – and is not just a physical specimen (like Beto and Calvert-Lewin).
Rumours: Yuri Alberto (Corinthians), Brobbey (Ajax), Igamane (Rangers)
More obvious possible options: Bonny (Parma), Emegha (Strasbourg), Gondou (St Petersburg), Barry (Villareal).
In all honesty, we’re not really in a good moment for striking talent across world football. These things seem to come and go. I’m not sure any of these players are really better than Beto.
The conundrum then is what to do with Chermiti. He has played very little football at a critical time for his development. He probably needs a Championship loan or similar quality overseas to stretch him.
If that happens then we also need to bring in a third striker in addition to Pepi (or whoever)
More obvious possible options: Ings (West Ham), Machino (Holstein Kiel), Turgeman (Tel Aviv), Ivanovic (Millwall) – being players from the categories of old/free or fairly cheap/random (i.e. sub £15m).