The Mail Bag
Prof.Tom Cannon Open Letter
Comments (37)
Whilst he has not always called it right in the past, there seems irrefutable logic to Prof Tom Cannon's Open Letter (on Bluekipper).
His reminder that it is the players and fans that create the memories and atmosphere (rather than the physical stadium) strikes me as pertinent. Yes vote in the bag now maybe?
Jason Hagarthy, Posted 20/08/2007 at 02:19:47
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2 Posted 20/08/2007 at 06:52:09
Easily the best analysis I’ve seen.
Can’t wait for the vote to be over.
3 Posted 20/08/2007 at 07:08:02
The price - The price of James Beatie - is a small one to pay if it means we will still have a club attracting more than the Boro Or Bolton in 5-6 years time
By the way, this Proff Tom cannon fella, who is he ?
If as yet the figures for the loop proposal havent, - as all the yes voters keep reminding us - been put forward - how did he arrive at his conclusion ?
As a proffesor he knows, you need to know all the figures before arriving at a conclusion.
Pure conjecture
Anyone who was at Reading on Saturday, take a long hard look at the future if the vote is yes
4 Posted 20/08/2007 at 07:24:10
After all, it’s not a competition, is it?
5 Posted 20/08/2007 at 07:43:28
Divide and conquer
http://www.bluekipper.com/stadium/stadium2.htm#aol
6 Posted 20/08/2007 at 08:03:48
The loop site proposal seems to me to have been cobbled together as an ?anything but Kirkby? alternative by desperate men ? I honestly see it as a complete non-alternative. Even a GCE grade D Tech Drawing failure like myself can see that building a 50,000 plus stadium on that site would be like trying to squeeze Neville Southall?s ample arse into size double zero slim-line Jeans (it aint going to happen and it?s an exercise in futility to even try to imagine it) If the vote goes to the ?No? camp, mark my words, the Loop will be dropped quicker than AVdM after another night on the piss.
However, I still remain unconvinced about Kirkby in the long term. So far, amongst the positive assertions penned by the bright eyed believers and the suspiciously named abuse monkeys on this site for the move not one has answered a series of questions I posed two months back.
I?ll ask the questions again:
1. Will the fact that Everton FC is based outside the City of Liverpool prove detrimental to our long term level of support?
2. ?Would the fact that Everton FC will no longer based in the City of Liverpool make it more likely or less likely that a) We will attract peripheral investment in the shape of events, concerts, tourism etc or will b) Kirkby be more attractive to city break tourists?
3. Will the fact that Everton FC is outside the City of Liverpool marginalise us even further in the eyes of the press, the public, the supporters who are not yet born?
I?ve seen no sensible answers to any of these questions; there have been no studies completed that I?ve seen; there have been nothing but bland assurances from those in power with a vested financial short term interest in the Kirkby move.
It is my firm belief that at the very least there should have been neutral attempts to tackle these questions, asked by many (not just myself).
In the long term I?ve a gut feeling that the Kirkby move will prove disastrous for Everton Football Club ? I really hope I?m wrong.
7 Posted 20/08/2007 at 08:13:23
8 Posted 20/08/2007 at 08:18:55
yup seems fine to me too, except we haven’t seen the Loop proposals so he is guessing as to costs and financing.
In some ways he’s made the case for the Loop a little stronger, yes it would be more expensive, but he’s assuming that Everton are servicing the entire debt. This is why we need to wait and see what Bestway et al come up with. If they are contributing then some of this debt would drop.
A city center site which will reap Liverpools growth and attract much more additional revenue than Kirby could ever hope to do, is, we all agree, preferable. The board in insiting that there is no plab-b when one is being activly pursued, is ignoring its reponsibilities to the club and to the fans.
9 Posted 20/08/2007 at 08:36:20
>Easily the best analysis I?ve seen.
err no; it can’t be. He’s not seen any of the other proposals, in fact he’s probably not even seen the detailed Kirby proposals.
If you’ve voted ’Yes’ then I respect your choice, but if you think that this is more than a finger-in-the-air-analysis based on guestimates then I think you’re maybe mistaken.
The vote should have been:
1. Do you want to move to Kirby.
however it has been spun by the board as:
1. Do you want to move to Kirby, because jf you don’t we’ll be in the Northern Premier in five years, and there is no plan-b and Bestway are just having a laugh paying HOK sport to investigate the options available and Tesco is really big and have loads of cash and all the ’No’ voters are tossers anyway.
10 Posted 20/08/2007 at 08:52:51
11 Posted 20/08/2007 at 08:45:50
12 Posted 20/08/2007 at 08:25:18
Q1. Will the fact that Everton FC is based outside the City of Liverpool prove detrimental to our long term level of support?
A1) No, because Kirkby is still amongst the heart of it’s core fan base (Scousers!) but also in excellent catchment area for new fans. Whether we keep and grow EFC supporters depends more on success on the pitch, which I believe will be helped by Kirkby for for the reasons given by Sir Terry and Prof Cannon. (Nb. as an aside and in reply to Dave C above, I believe Prof’s analysis makes sense because, other than Everton adding massive debt, there is no other sources of massive funding for any ’Loop stadium’.)
2. ?Would the fact that Everton FC will no longer based in the City of Liverpool make it more likely or less likely that a) We will attract peripheral investment in the shape of events, concerts, tourism etc or will b) Kirkby be more attractive to city break tourists?
A2) I believe 2(a) answer is a firm YES, simply because the Kirkby Stadium will provide the facilities for these things at a cost we can afford due to KMBC and Tesco’s involvement. Without them we could not provide appropriate facilities for these things (or at least not in a way that is financially viable i.e. what would be the point of piling up mountains of expensive debt to sell to events that will generate less income than the cost of the debt). 2(b) With the huge redevelopment of Kirkby it is likely to be more attractive than it is now (though I doubt this is a revenue avenue we’ll be pursuing due to other avenues taking priority e.g. Robert Earl Casino on the development instead?)Still, the excellent transport links, esp. with Mersey Tram if that happens means Kirkby is well placed to access both the City Centre and also wider Merseyside and beyond in day trips etc.
3. Will the fact that Everton FC is outside the City of Liverpool marginalise us even further in the eyes of the press, the public, the supporters who are not yet born?
Ans 3) I think NO, because the determinant of this will be how successful the Team is, and due to the reasons explained by Sir Terry and Prof Cannon I think the Team will be better placed for success in our new 50,000m plus fabulous new stadium in Kirkby. I look forward to watching Brazil versus Portugal in World Cup match in 2018 at the New Goodison. What odds on Everton’s League and European Cup duo winning Manny Fernandes and Anderson Da Silva being on opposing sides that day if that happens??? Last point just for laughs of course, since England will have knocked Brazil out so it will be Captain James Vaughan leading England out against Brazil. Oh to dream!
Re Answers 1-3, Does it make sense Kevin? Cheers, Up the blues!
13 Posted 20/08/2007 at 09:35:25
14 Posted 20/08/2007 at 09:59:00
Anyway - even with a yes vote I can’t see the current board pulling this off. Trying to raise 30 million for what really was the deal of the century at Kings Dock proved too big for Bill Kenwright and the board - why will Kirkby be different?
We’ll still be at Goodison in 10 years time, probably after another 3 votes on stadium moves that the board then failed to deliver!
It could be a money saver to print a voting form on the season ticket renewals with a yes/no to a move to (Cronton, Speke, Kirkby, Wigan...) delete as applicable.
15 Posted 20/08/2007 at 10:24:34
16 Posted 20/08/2007 at 10:35:08
No, people will always support that lot and it wouldn’t matter where their stadum was. I don’t know why but people will and so it’ll be with us.
17 Posted 20/08/2007 at 10:51:13
I always knew Bestway were only a small cash ’n’ carry compared to Tesco - I didn’t realise how small they were though - VERY small it seems.
18 Posted 20/08/2007 at 09:14:04
1. Professor Tom states "Terry Leahy highlights the £150M cost of the same stadium as a stand-alone project against the £35M the Kirkby development is likely to cost Everton." He then states that an alternative to Kirkby will cost at least £150M and implies that all of this money will have to be borrowed. He also acknowledges that the £35M is a borrowing requirement figure for Kirkby (by subsequently using this figure in his Debt Servicing analysis.)
My first question to Professor Tom is WHY HAS THIS PROJECTED BORROWING FIGURE OF £150M FOR SCOTLAND ROAD NOT BEEN REDUCED BY THE AMOUNT RAISED FROM THE SALE OF GOODISON PLUS NAMING RIGHTS? I would contend that naming rights for a stadium close to Liverpool City Centre should attract a greater amount of money than those for the Kirkby stadium. To leave these two considerations out of the total borrowing requirement for the "other than Kirkby stadium" is at best careless and at worst deliberately misleading.
I choose to ignore the damning with faint praise of Bestways, the rubbishing of L.C.C. and the eulogising of Tesco and K.B.C. and concentrate on "Tom’s Tables."
My second question to Professor Tom is WHY ARE THE OPERATING COSTS OF THE KIRKBY STADIUM £1M PER YEAR LESS THAN THE OPERATING COSTS FOR A SCOTLAND ROAD STADIUM? Once again pure conjecture in favour of the preferred option!
My third question to Professor Tom is WHY ARE YOU FACTORING IN A MERE £0.5M PER YEAR INCREASED GATE REVENUE FOR A STADIUM IN THE HEART OF LIVERPOOL COMPARED TO THE KIRKBY STADIUM? YOUR FIGURE SUGGESTS THAT THE CITY STADIUM WILL ATTRACT NO MORE THAN 1,000 EXTRA SPECTATORS PER GAME THAN A STADIUM IN KIRKBY.....BASED ON WHAT? Pure conjecture using a caution that serves the purpose of the preferred option.
My fourth question to Professor Tom is WHAT MAKES YOU THINK THAT EXECUTIVE INCOME FOR THE CITY STADIUM WILL BE NO MORE THAN THAT FOR KIRKBY? Many others have stated over the last few weeks that location is key to attracting Executive income and yet the "man from Ideopolis" thinks differently....once again a lack of discrimination supporting the preferred option.
Professor Tom describes Amenity Development car parks etc. as likely to raise £2M per year for the Kirkby project. I admit to not knowing what this means but I note that the Scotland Road stadium has a big fat zero in this category. Putting my ignorance aside for a moment might I ask my fifth question of Professor Tom.....WHY HAVE YOU NOT INCLUDED A LINE FOR REVENUE FROM CONFERENCING, LARGE SCALE CONCERTS, ETC? IS IT BECAUSE IT IS LIKELY THAT EVEN YOU WOULD HAVE TO ADMIT THAT A STADIUM IN THE CITY CENTRE IS MORE LIKELY TO RAISE REVENUE IN THIS CATEGORY OVER AND ABOVE THAT WHICH THE KIRKBY STADIUM MIGHT ATTRACT?
All in all the leaked, confidential report to the Chairman by the "special advisor" is no more than a squalid attempt to justify the short-sightedness of the Board in not exploring other options. Until my questions are answered and the tables revised, I will treat it with the contempt it deserves. Even if the revised figures show that Scotland Road will cost more to achieve than Kirkby, I would consider it a price worth paying if it keeps Everton at the heart of the City and helps to re-unite the fractured fan base.
(Apologies to all for using upper case for my questions....I didn’t mean to shout.)
19 Posted 20/08/2007 at 10:49:46
20 Posted 20/08/2007 at 10:56:49
Debt Servicing:
Kirkby - £2.5m a year
Scotland Road - £11m a year
Goodison - £0 a year
£2.5m of debt servicing for Kirkby indicates an additional debt of £30m. Now you could argue he is being prudent but we have been told repeatedly the debt would be around £10m.
£11m for Scotland Road would indicate additional borrowing of £120m, where is he getting these figures from? He wouldn’t be plucking these figures out of the air to illustrate his point would he?
Obstructed Views
Goodison - -£1m a year
Why has he factored in a cost of £1m a year for obstructed views? We don’t actually pay out £1m a year in compensation for obstructed views do we? If he is counting this figure as the amount we reduce ticket prices for the obstructed view seats then why not just factor this into the "Gate Receipts" item later on?
Operating Costs
Kirkby £-1m a year
Scotland Road - £0 a year
Goodison - £1.5m a year
According to these figures we would reduce our operating costs by £1m by moving to Kirkby (fair enough if you believe the hype), but why would we not save this by moving to Scotland Road? Surely the correct assumption would be that a new build stadium, whatever the location, would have a similar saving?
Gate receipts
Kirkby - £4m
Scotland Road - £4.5m
Goodison - £0m
The assumptions that gates will go up by 8000 per game at Kirkby (£4m / £25 per ticket average) or 9000 at Scotland Road are optimistic would you not say? There is no evidence of demand.
Executive
Kirkby - £2m
Scotland Road - £2m
Goodison - £0
So a city centre site would generate no more executive income then an out of town retail site? Without knowing the number of boxes or having seen any plans for Scotland Road we have a guess from Prof Cannon.
Amenity Developments - car parks etc
Kirkby - £2m
Scotland Road - £0
Goodison - £0
What is this category all about? How could he possibly know what facilities Scotland Road would or wouldn’t have to base this arguement on? And the randon £2m of income (all profit as no allowance of cost has been made in the operating costs section?) for Kirkby comes from 1000 parking spaces or the Park and Ride scheme?
And the shocking news for Yes Voters hailing this piece of research.....a £6.5m best case scenario profit for the scheme we are told will easily bring us £10m a season to spend on players.
Ever feel you’ve been had?
21 Posted 20/08/2007 at 11:08:21
I think he is a professor in the same mould as people who do degrees in ’Coronation Street’. In fact I can just see him and Bill sitting in Rodney Street marking exams and patting each other on the back, hahaha this guy is a joke!
22 Posted 20/08/2007 at 11:13:17
First of all I would hope the Prof. Cannon could put me in touch with the bank that will offer a £150,000,000 at 5.34% interest when the base rate currently stands at 5.75%. Loans involving large amounts such as this are currently obtained between one to two points over base so, specifically, a loan of the size indicated would cost, at 7.25%, £13,162,785. Yes more than is indicated, but all those dazzled by academia just wait for the rest, and before accountants start to argue about tax effectiveness just remember that Everton?s current long term debt liability, a £30,000,000 securitization loan, is at 7.79% (£2,767,000 p.a.).
Second, loans of this magnitude are not subject to fluctuations in the interest rate, the risk is spread to both parties, look at Arsenal, Newcastle in deed look at Everton?s loan, it?s not like nipping into the Nat West and getting a house mortgage, the insinuation that it is frankly beggars belief. All the aforementioned have fixed rate loans over a 25-year period, why introduce a topic that has no relevance whatsoever?
If, Prof. Cannon, you intend to take matters at face value then the figure you use for potential debt for Kirkby, provided by Mr. Leahy, must be taken with the proverbial pinch of salt. Notwithstanding the indisputable fact that the £35,000,000 is a 133% increase on the £15,000,000 figure, as the likely amount of debt supplied only two weeks earlier by the Everton CEO Mr. Keith Wyness, I find it incomprehensible that you have not questioned the possibility that this potential debt will actually range between £75,000,000 and £100,000,000 unless of course we are having built the cheapest stadium in the history of premiership football.
A loan of this magnitude, £75,000,000 at 7.75%, would cost £6,876,482 or £8,775,190 for the top figure.
As for your chart, applying some realistic data and not relying on frankly naive assumptions that a city centre site would not offer substantially increased benefits when attempting to develop the commercial revenue streams that are available outside of the normal match day experience, according to experts such as Simon Inglis, is, in addition to the inescapable fact that if Kirkby were to be developed the contribution from the retail only site to Everton Football Club would be, and this isn?t an estimate, zero, no hotels or leisure facilities are to be built, according to Mr.Wyness, it doesn?t take a genius to work out why, yet another attempt to distract .
Debt is a fact of modern premiership clubs, look here at Liverpool, http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200702061223557923Q Top premiership clubs have two fantastic enabling partners, their fan base and their presence in the premiership. Look at all the top clubs, look at the rest, then tell me, as the 21st richest club in the world, why we?re adopting the commercial tactics of, with respect, Bolton, Portsmouth and the rest.
You Prof. Cannon are either incredibly ignorant of your subject matter or you believe that the supporters of Everton Football Club are incredibly stupid and will believe whatever is wheeled out in front of them. I can assure both you and certain members of the club that the supporters are not as stupid as you think. No wonder Mr. Kenwright has remained almost silent throughout the ballot period.
I have found the actions of the club in the past week to be disgraceful, I?m at a loss to explain why the club should adopt these tactics as my gut feeling tells me that whilst far from being a massive vote of confidence the Yes vote will prevail as most voters have only heard a monologue from the club and the local press.
I?ll be glad when the vote is over; I?m frankly sick and tired of it now.
A very disappointed Evertonian
Colin.Fitz
23 Posted 20/08/2007 at 11:15:41
He’s no idea what the Scotland road deal is, so his ’irrefutable logic’ is in fact totally refutable and, based on his conjecture, not really that logical.
24 Posted 20/08/2007 at 11:15:02
EFC need a 60,000 stadium and Kirkby gives that as expansion is designed in - the intial empty corners is a downer though.
There is talk of Liverpool absorbing most or all of Knowsley anyway. The city did turn the places down as the boundary commission in the 1950-60s wanted them to be inside the city. Eventually EFC will be back in the city...not that that makes a difference, as Kirkby in effect already is, as Salford is in Manchester and Wembely in London.
25 Posted 20/08/2007 at 11:06:58
Still trying to get that place on the board Professor? Hope it’e worth losing credibility for.
26 Posted 20/08/2007 at 11:39:50
27 Posted 20/08/2007 at 11:38:31
28 Posted 20/08/2007 at 11:34:26
First he gives the standard emotional bit and then follows that up with a patronising ’aww bless, but you are rubbish’ oppinion of Best Way.
Then some wish washy fiancial spiel, and then some more emotional crap.
Just another letter... And why say its an open letter to the top brass? As if he’s letting us in on something special...
29 Posted 20/08/2007 at 11:46:28
I will fully accept the "Who is going to fund this" argument but surely we can put the "its too small" argument to bed.
30 Posted 20/08/2007 at 11:50:04
31 Posted 20/08/2007 at 11:57:11
personally ive been saying the same all along. Some of you say ’oh 150m is plucked from thin air’ but thats roughly what it will cost to build ourselves...
still now funding package from bestway Lyndon. Which way are you voting?
32 Posted 20/08/2007 at 12:29:48
This is the man who has sadi that we would become the next Tranmere Rovers if we stayed at Goodison. The man who claimed that the board had done a great job to get us above Villa as Villa have 4 million potential supporters.
Brian Reade in the Mirror published a list of all his ’expert’ claims that have failed to materialise.
The club have yet to produce one person without a vested interest to support Kirkby or to rubbish the opposition.
33 Posted 20/08/2007 at 12:35:38
34 Posted 20/08/2007 at 12:11:27
that the "yes" and the "No" camps are both continually bringing architects out of the woodwork with completely opposite views,
Also both camps have financial" experts" popping up everywhere giving us their tuppence worth.
One fact that is irrefutable to both camps is that nobody has the true figures of what alternatives to Kirkby will cost the club..good guesses ,yes..but facts NO.
Nobody but Everton Football Club, Tesco and Knowsley council know the EXACT cost to Everton fc for the Kirkby project..
And nobody at all Knows how many people will go thru the turnsiles, how successful/unsuccessful we will be if playing there and exactly the same for "The Loop" or Aintree,Speke ,Halton..etc etc
So can people please stop quoting figures that as yet dont exist..
The only financial truth we have definately been given so far , by a man with ALL the figures at his disposal..Are the one included in Sir Terry leahys ,open letter.
Yes , He has a great vested personal interest..but is bound ..by law not to knowling give out any misleading or untruthful information regarding the financial dealings of his company..or in short, He is telling the truth.
People are constantly ripping each other to shreds here,..with words such as "TRAITOR" being bandied about..
I feel it is time this was put to bed..If you have a vote..make up your mind tick your box .and lets all get behind the team..
And lets leave one another alone..lets all stand together..as EVERTONIANS
35 Posted 20/08/2007 at 12:40:29
http://www.mirror.co.uk/archive/2006/12/09/tom-s-a-sage-who-doesn-t-know-his-onions-89520-18235741/
36 Posted 20/08/2007 at 13:02:28
There’s a ballot taking place. We all have our own views - just respect the final result and get on with supporting the team.
37 Posted 20/08/2007 at 17:10:34


1 Posted 20/08/2007 at 01:06:44