ToffeeWeb - Season 2007-08

The Mail Bag

We're Safe!

The Blues have reached the 40 point 'safe from relegation' mark, how come no one has mentioned/celebrated this milestone?

Not too long ago it was seen as our major target, if we reached it before the last couple of games it seemed Christmas had come early, now not a mention. That & the fact that it has happened with 15 games to go & that we got there ahead of our 'dear' neighbours from Hell surely shows how far we have come in the last few years.

A third serious Euro challenge in four years, an ability to consistently get wins home and away against bottom half of the table teams and nearly £6M for your 5th choice striker hopefully indicate that the number 40 will soon lose all significance to Evertonians.

Now what is the magic number for a Champions League finish?
John Pickles, Wirral Posted 21/01/2008 at 11:33:53

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Paul Coldock
1 Posted 21/01/2008 at 12:21:07

"Now what is the magic number for a Champions League finish?"

I think 60 to reach Europe and close to 70 for champions league. It’s going to be close this year, their’s alot of competition

Lee Smith
2 Posted 21/01/2008 at 12:30:51

Well based on the highly scientific procedure of "me guessing", I have predicted the following -

4th Liverpool 71 Points
5th Villa 69
6th Everton 64
7th Man City 63
8th Pompey 62
9th West Ham 58
10th Blackburn 56.

As Paul COldock says, I think this year will be a lot harder points wise to qualify for Europe and the top half will be much tighter than previous seasons. I can see one of the Sky 4 winning the FA Cup and opening up 6th place for the UEFA Cup and if we dont win the Carling Cup ourselves hopefully the Arse or Chelsea will and that will open up 7th place as well. But you never know, at this rate we will prob finish 4th anyway!!!!!

James Elworthy
3 Posted 21/01/2008 at 12:42:11

As the gap between top and bottom is wider than ever the safety point mark is more now 36 than 40, I cant see the third from bottom club getting much over 30 this season.
We need 30 more pts for the Champions League

David Whitwell
4 Posted 21/01/2008 at 12:45:39

If you look back over the last 5 years then around 68-69 points should be enough for 4th.

Home wins Vs Spurs, Reading, Portsmouth, West Ham, Derby, Villa & Newcastle, with away wins @ Sunderland, Fulham & Birmingham would put us on 72!, therefore we could drop one of these.

That also assumes getting nothing at home to Chelsea or away @ Blackburn, Man City, Liverpool & Arsenal.

We will never have a better chance.

Rob Jones
5 Posted 21/01/2008 at 13:00:04

Yep its looking good, lets hope we don’t do our favourite trick of past seasons and underachieving against lower sides, but yeah I think we can get CL, in fact I now expect it, 5 years ago the only thing we expected was safety, so thats another thing that shows how far we’ve come

Shaun Kinnair
6 Posted 21/01/2008 at 12:58:05

Even if we win 5 of our last 15 games, draw 1 game and loose the rest, that would give us 68 points which has been Champions league qualification in every year the Prem has existed. I’m sure European qualification is almost within our reach for sure, if we dont get 4th.

Andrew Dutton
7 Posted 21/01/2008 at 13:11:19

Oh dear Shaun, it seems math has let you down. 5 wins and a draw would give us 58pts not 68 points.

Gary Creaney
8 Posted 21/01/2008 at 13:13:41

Shaun, that would only give us 58 points I?m afraid. To get CL we need 9 wins or equivalent from 15 games. It is highly achievable. If we can hold out til our AFCON players get back then we can really kick on and storm the last stretch.

Chris James
9 Posted 21/01/2008 at 13:17:15

Although I admire your optimism Shaun, I sadly can?t agree with your Maths.
5 wins and a draw would net us 16 points, putting us on 58, which I don?t think this year would be enough for UEFA, never mind CL.

Personally I think we can/will win 8 of remaining matches, pick up another 2 to 3 points from draws and lose the remaining 4 or 5, thus leaving us with 66 or 67 points, which should earn us 6th and a UEFA spot.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, Man City and Pompey will both fall away, so it?s Villa and Liverpool we?re up against.

Not mission impossible, but certainly a big ask.

Chris James
10 Posted 21/01/2008 at 13:23:06

Bugger, now it’s my turn to get my maths wrong!

Changed from 7 wins to 8 before I posted and didn’t change the points total accordingly.
8 wins and 2/3 draws would of course be 26/27 points, putting us on 68 or 69.

I still think this will be 5th/6th place though as I think 4th place will break 70.

Shaun Kinnair
11 Posted 21/01/2008 at 13:33:32

Sorry my mistake... lol... I’m booking the Maths night class as we speak.

I think if we win the next 3 games, it’s ours because the RS and Villa have a harder run in and the City don’t like playing away.

The Villa at home is crucial and any type of result against the RS and we’ll kill them.

Michael Hunt
12 Posted 21/01/2008 at 13:31:53

David Whitwell’s prediction seems most realistic to me (with swapping of some precited losses for some predicted wins most likely e.g. Spurs win could swap with Blackburn loss etc). That would get us CL qualification :-) A key caveat though is INJURIES, in particular we need to keep most the midfield fit. Injury permitting, I firmly believe we will do it. The Anfield derby could be the biggy...how sweet revenge for the injustices of the Goodison ’Clattenbung’ derby would be. Up The Blues!

Joe McMahon
13 Posted 21/01/2008 at 13:44:30

Yeah- I’ve done my maths, if we win ALL 15 games we should be ok for 4th spot.

ian tunny
14 Posted 21/01/2008 at 13:47:30

HaHa i like it Joe but dont forget the red shit have a 2 game advantage and better goal difference.

Alan Rolfe
15 Posted 21/01/2008 at 13:58:57

Re. Ian
If we?ve won ALL 15 games including the Derby match at Anfield WE will then have the best goal difference.

Tommy Coleman
16 Posted 21/01/2008 at 13:59:05

Here’s my table :

1st Everton - 87pts
2nd Arsenal - 86pts
3rd Chelsea - 85pts
4th Aston V - 72pts
5th Man Cty - 65pts
6th Blackburn - 60
7th Man u - 54pts
8th RS - 39pts

Erik Dols
17 Posted 21/01/2008 at 13:55:39

If the RS decide to go for the CL and the fat waiter plays his second string in a lot of Premiership games, the fourth place will be up for grabs. I can’t see the RS winning the CL so that shouldn’t be the problem - on the other hand, I didn’t see them winning it in 2005 or last year (yeah they didn’t win but they reached the final anyway).

I expect City’s season will collapse a bit. But then again: everybody expected our season to collapse a bit in 2004-2005. We still managed to finish 4th back then (albeit with not that much points and a negative goal difference). I see Villa as the dark horse, but I seriously believe we are the greatest contender for 4th place IF, and only if, the RS don’t take the PL too seriously, be it because of the Champions League or be it because the fat waiter and the yanks are too busy insulting each other. I hate to say it, but if the RS take the league seriously they’ll finish above us.

EJ Smythe
18 Posted 21/01/2008 at 14:04:37

Hehe, but don’t forget they got beneathus but we have moyesiah....

just hope they wont be DICheads the next few weeks.

Andy Ellams
19 Posted 21/01/2008 at 14:21:03

I think the number of teams chasing 4th will bring the required number of points down as teams are likely to be tripping each other up. Over 65 should put us in a really good position. We did it with less three years ago.

Tom Carter
20 Posted 21/01/2008 at 14:40:02

No one has mentioned this John because it is not relevant we are not fighting relagation, simple as.

Kevin Tully
21 Posted 21/01/2008 at 14:49:23

Don’t forget the R.S. have to play at Chelsea, Arse, and Manure. We only have to go to Arse away. We even play the barcodes on the last game of the season, just like our last top 4 finish.

Jay Harris
22 Posted 21/01/2008 at 16:10:58

I honestly believe there?s not much between the top 4 and bottom 2 upwards except confidence,luck and slightly better finishing(except in the rs case referees!!).
I think PN was right we may have to grind out results rather than look pretty like Fulham, Tottenham and West Ham.
It may be nerve-wracking but I think we?ll get there by the skin of our teeth.
Still can't understand why Manny didnt play or at least come on as sub yesterday.
Hope he plays against Chelsea.
COYB.

Carl Rutherford
23 Posted 21/01/2008 at 17:10:38

To achieve 4th usually takes about 65 points. Teams in the top half of the table tend to accumulate less points in the second half of the season (compared to their points total up to Christmas) because teams at the bottom end fighting relegation tend to pick up points you might not otherwise expect them to get. In the season we finished fourth us, Liverpool and Bolton all ended up throwing away points we shouldn’t have. I think we can take Liverpool’s current points per game of 1.86 as the top limit for a team finishing 4th. This gives 70 or 71 as the maximum number of points needed to finish 4th.

I think this is very achievable especially if Manny can have the same impact as he had this time last year.

Carl Rutherford
24 Posted 21/01/2008 at 17:27:55

The RS 2 games in hand are Villa and West Ham. Can’t see the draw specialists picking up maximum points in those.