ToffeeWeb - Season 2008-09

The Mail Bag

Three-Horse Race

Looking at the second half of the season, I think it's reasonable to see us as the outsiders in a three-horse race for that fourth Champions League place. This got me wondering, what sort of odds are on offer for a top 4 finish? It turns out that Skybet are giving the following:-

         Arsenal          4/5
         Aston Villa     Evens
         Everton          25/1

Now I know that we Blues are ignored by the media but I didn't realise that the bookies were equally dismissive of our recent efforts.

Arsenal seem to shoot themselves in the foot at every opportunity and Villa recently have been enjoying a degree of good fortune that would make even our beloved neighbours blush! Whichever way you look at it, 25/1 represents 'value' and I have duly made a modest investment. We'd better not sell Mikel to Arsenal, though!
Phil Guyers, Maghull Posted 31/12/08 at 13:29:34

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Alan Kirwin
1 Posted 31/12/2008 at 17:40:57

No surprise with the odds. It’s a bit like Match of the Day, who completely disregard Everton on a weekly basis. Our climb up the table without a whole forward line clearly not that relevant when Man City or Spurs are playing. Don’t care about the odds, do care about having to watch the whole of MoD to see us.

You’re right about Villa riding their luck. The have just plundered 9 pts from last 3 away games when they deserved zero. A draw would have flattered them at Goodison, 1-0 at West Ham was robbery due to jammy deflection & last night Hull were very unlucky not to win, nevermind draw. If this luck doesn’t run out soon then we have no chance. Could & should’ve been just 3 pts behind them now (at most).

Villa away looks like biggest game of our season, closely followed by Arsenal at Goodison. If we win both then we definitely have a chance.

Rich Williams
2 Posted 31/12/2008 at 17:48:16

Interesting to note we are 2nd in the disciplinary table, could be a backdoor into Europe if we need it, imagine if we didn?t have Fellaini... (Played; Yellows; Reds; Points = Y*1 + R*3):

1 Fulham 19 18 1 21
2 Everton 20 28 1 31
3 Liverpool 20 31 0 31
4 Aston Villa 20 32 0 32
5 Manchester City 20 24 3 33
6 Chelsea 20 29 2 35
7 Sunderland 20 35 0 35
8 WBA 20 35 0 35
9 Portsmouth 20 29 2 35
10 Middlesbrough 20 32 1 35
11 Hull City 20 34 1 37
12 Newcastle 20 29 3 38
13 Wigan Athletic 19 30 3 39
14 Arsenal 20 34 2 40
15 Bolton 20 37 1 40
16 Man Utd 18 36 2 42
17 Tottenham 20 30 4 42
18 West Ham Utd 20 36 2 42
19 Blackburn 20 42 2 48
20 Stoke City 20 41 3 50

Joeynkoo Ludden
3 Posted 31/12/2008 at 17:46:48

I?d love it to happen Phil, but 25s actually represents fairly short odds given our squad and resources. Save your money. Villa?s luck will run dry, and the Arse will kick on. I just hope Moyes can break his cup jinx and we go all the way in the FA Cup this year. 20-1 are our current odds to lift the trophy. Better bet than 4th spot...

Andy Crooks
4 Posted 31/12/2008 at 17:54:25

You are right Joeynkoo, 25/1 is ridiculously skinny. Given DM?s FA Cup record I?d say that 20/1 is also poor value. Anyone looking for value should consider backing us at plus a goal when we go to Old Trafford.

Joeynkoo Ludden
5 Posted 31/12/2008 at 18:00:33

Agreed Andy, 20s are way too short to entice my hand so I?ll avoid that too. Fellaini to score first and us to win 0-2 v MTFC on Saturday looks ok at 24s. He?s due a headed goal!!

Dave Wilson
6 Posted 01/01/2009 at 08:35:00

Joeynkoo / Andy

You?re looking at this the wrong way, guys.

Arsenal have lost their best player, their manager is looking increasingly tortured by his team's inability to see out a game, there is unrest between the likes of Toure, Gallas and Van Persie, and for the first time in a very long time there is discontent amongst the fans. Odds on? are you sure??? If your talking of skinny odds surely this is it.

Villa are enjoying a lot of luck, but let's be honest, are they really top 4? And does Evens represent good value ? remember the same players cracked last year?

I understand you guys are trying to keep your expectations realistic, but this is far from a two-horse race.

I?ll be taking that 25/1 today, I?ll also have the 20/1 on offer for the Cup.
If we are successful in either, you?ll both be invited to the celebrations.

THE GLASS IS HALF FULL, GUYS!

Happy New Year to blues everywhere.

Rob Nunn
7 Posted 01/01/2009 at 09:21:44

@ Rich Williams, yeah we might have been at the top of the Fair Play League but we have done so well recently. Why the hell do people find such stupid angles to not support our players and team? Perhaps bottom of the league/relegation and top of the fair play table would be sufficient for you? Unbelievable!!!!

Phil Roberts
8 Posted 01/01/2009 at 11:02:31

25/1 ? wasting your money.

6th is the place we will finish ? think I will bookmark this one to show you all at the end of the season.

Miserable ? no, realistic and incredibly proud of my team. Fair Play League ? no arguing with Refs (only team last year to not have a player booked for arguing); standing ovations to 18-year-olds after they score; work with youngsters/charities. And sometimes we play good football.

Happy New Year Everyone 0151 especially Stephen Ferns who understood my piece better than anyone! And let?s go win the Cup ? it has been 14 years ? as bad as the 1969-70 to 1984 gap!

John Smith
9 Posted 01/01/2009 at 12:32:00

I think our odds will go down if we have a god run of results in our next 4 games. We have Hull, The Shite, Man U and Arse.
I will say it ? we could get 7 points if we perform well and the others have off days, let's hope... coyb!

Roy Coyne
10 Posted 01/01/2009 at 12:49:16

I don?t think we will do it but at them odds it's got to be worth a tenner on us.

Joeynkoo Ludden
11 Posted 01/01/2009 at 18:03:37

J Smith, the reverse of that coin is, if we have a bad run of results against Liverpool, Man Utd and Arsenal, then our odds get longer for 4th spot with the bonus of not having to play any of them again.

Mike Oates
12 Posted 01/01/2009 at 20:11:35

To get better than 6th we need a complete collapse by either Aston Villa or Arsenal or actually take 3pts in at least 2 from the following games, Liverpool (a) , Man U (a) , Chelsea (a) or Aston Villa (a).

I believe we won't get the 6pts points and we will need a collapse ? and I think Villa might well collapse... one or two injuries to their forwards or just that they become too committed with too many games.

Jason Lam
13 Posted 02/01/2009 at 07:15:48

Juan Ramos, do some good for a change and sign that Ashley Young, Cheers.