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Need 40 Points To Survive

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There are 12 games left in the league, (and one in the cup!!). Of those, 7 are at home:

Sunderland (3), Birmingham (3), Fulham (3), Aston Villa (1), Blackburn (1) Man City (0), and Chelsea (0). However you want to look at it, we need to take 11 points from these 7 games.

Away, we have Newcastle (0), Wolves (1), Man Utd (0), Wigan (0), West Brom (1). That gives us 13 points from the last 36, for a total of 43 (small cushion) on the season... enough to stay up?

We will get snotted on Saturday at Chelsea. Not quite the season I had envisioned back in August.

It has been well documented by others here on this website, why we have been so dismal. But, the more pressing and important issue is, "where do we go from here?"

Do we change managers? Or stick with what we have. Definition of insanity, is to do the same things over and over, and expect different results. Maybe Moyes has gone stale, lost his passion... (certainly looked like it this past weekend).

Whatever the reason, we need to change, but, and it is a biggy, who replaces him? O'Neill, Sam, Hollaway, Irvine, Jones, Jol, Klinsman. Who? .....Maybe Keegan??

I do not have the answers, but, will continue to support my Blues through thick and thin. I have had enough of the thin, and would just like a little bit of thick right now.


Jimmy Daly, Birmingham, AL, USA     Posted 15/02/2011 at 15:49:24

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Steve Guy
1   Posted 15/02/2011 at 20:24:08

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I have just had a quick look at our remaining league fixtures. Whilst appreciating I am no Mystic Meg and that anything is possible, I am struggling to see beyond 11 more points; putting us on 41 for the season. This should be enough, but Phil Neville wasn't wrong when he stated today we are now in a relegation battle!
Kieran Kinsella
2   Posted 15/02/2011 at 20:24:54

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Makes you wonder why we sold McFadden
Andy Mack
3   Posted 15/02/2011 at 20:31:08

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Not looking good. Looking at those and or past fixtures. 10-11 more points. Might need a Gareth Farrely on the last day.
Andy Riley
4   Posted 15/02/2011 at 20:25:29

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The next five Premier League games are crucial. Four at home and one away. If we get 9 or 10 points from them then I think we'll be ok. If not it's worrying. I think Chelsea in the FA Cup is the catalyst. A bad defeat and Moyes just has to go a bit like Walter Smith after the FA Cup at Middlesborough in 2002. Someone, anyone could then give us a better chance of survival than Moyes - Roberto di Matteo anyone - he has something to prove!
Kunal Desai
5   Posted 15/02/2011 at 20:46:02

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3 out of our last 5 games away from home are against Wolves, West Brom and Wigan. Crucial 6 pointers no doubt. I wouldn't be too surprised if we pick up two draw from these and lose one. Nevermind we'll raise our game against Citeh and Chelsea at home.
Dermot Ryan
6   Posted 15/02/2011 at 20:40:22

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We should be able to draw or win at Wigan.

And surely we can at least get 2 points from Newcastle and West Brom away.

And I think we can squeak a draw against Man City and Chelsea at home. So that's at least 2 points.

I'm actually more concerned about getting 3 wins against Sunderland, Birmingham, and Fulham.

How quickly things have gone totally south.
Alan McGuffog
7   Posted 15/02/2011 at 20:47:00

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Jimmy whilst I admire your optimism about getting 9 points from Sunderland Fulham and Brum I don't see the rationale for this up beat view.
. We have so far squandered points against clubs of this "level".....Wolves, Bolton, West Ham etc.
I have seen nothing recently to make me think that we can beat the likes of Sunderland, Fulham etc.
We can't score and we are not tight at the back. We have difficulty defending the occasional lead that we take and we huff and puff when we go a goal behind.
On the bright side I expect to see Saha fully fit and raring to go towards the end of May.
Mike Hughes
8   Posted 15/02/2011 at 20:51:03

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It'll be tight but Villa, Wigan and West Ham have played a game more than us.

Wolves are 6 points behind us.

Birmingham losing 0-2 at home to Newcastle tonight.
Alot of the bottom 6-7 teams have to play each other.

At least it's in our hands.

The problem is our form / leaky defence / impotent attack / confidence / club in some disarray.

Holy Crap.
Peter Dry
9   Posted 15/02/2011 at 21:07:16

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I hope Moyes is watching The Brits at the moment because they've got a 'Plan B'.
James McGrady
10   Posted 15/02/2011 at 21:13:16

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Birmingham, Fulham & Villa (3 consecutive home games), Wolves away then Blackburn at home. If we don't pick up 10-12 points here then I think we will go down.

I don't fancy having to go to Wigan and West Brom needing wins if they are in the same boat.

James Stewart
11   Posted 15/02/2011 at 21:17:37

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After the Bolton game I can't say I share your optimistic predictions. There is no way we will beat Sunderland, Birmingham and Fulham at home and the 11 points are more likely to come away from home if you ask me.
Jamie Tulacz
12   Posted 15/02/2011 at 22:00:15

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Just need a couple of wins quickly and hopefully we can pull away from the danger zone.

Thing is we've done better this season against the big teams than the small teams. Who's to say we don't beat Man City or Chelsea at home (4 points away against these 2) then lose to West Brom and Wigan
Ian Edwards
13   Posted 15/02/2011 at 22:15:48

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If we play one up front in those seven home games then we will playing Barnsley and Doncaster next season.

Gavin Ramejkis
14   Posted 15/02/2011 at 22:17:43

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I've been thinking about this for months and pondered if safety would be 42 or 43 points given how open the league is this season with everyone taking points off each other and the killer is going to be goal difference, ours isn't that bad at the moment but our points tally is shocking, do we have a formation and the balls to take 12 or 13 points out of the last 12?

DM has painted himself into a corner, his anti football boring shite going for a draw isn't enough, he needs to grow a pair and go for wins in each and every game, his gameplan of trying not to concede rather than win isn't working.

Jay Harris
15   Posted 15/02/2011 at 22:21:18

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When did we last win 2 consecutive home games ? let alone 3?

We are the draw specialists but lately we've turned the art of drawing into losing.

No points are certain against any team especially this season.

The supporters could be worth some points but, with the morguish feeling emanating from GP, don't expect many points from the crowd.
John Connor
16   Posted 15/02/2011 at 22:40:06

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Just completed the BBC predictor from now until the end of the season, we end on 66 points and finish 5th, including 4-0 against Chelsea on the last day, no built in bias from me.

Reality is we should not go down with the games left, were not crap every game for 90 minutes. Moyes and half the squad (Rodwell, Baines etc) will leave in the summer and Moyes will get a call from someone else and follow them. The time to worry is when all the best players want to leave and this time of the year there is nowhere for them to go, so use the remaining games as a showcase and see what happens.

More worried about next season than this.

Chris Ashton
17   Posted 15/02/2011 at 23:05:41

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I think this doom and gloom is getting a bit out of hand! We are Everton FC, take nothing for granted! WE may lose to Fulham and Wigan but beat Man Utd and Chelsea. You never know with Moyes or the lads which version will turn up.

I do not try to predict the games for this reason. I made a prediction last season and it was true so I will make it again: we WILL beat United this season.

James Stewart
18   Posted 15/02/2011 at 23:17:33

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Spot on, Gavin, we were tactically set up to not get beat against Bolton and got exactly what we deserved: embarrassed.

Moyes won't change his ways now, though, so that's why I can't see where these 12 points will come from!
Phil Rodgers
19   Posted 15/02/2011 at 23:25:24

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It's times for Moyes to stop feeling sorry for himself and start doing his fuckin job. These players are much better than they are performing and everybody knows it. I was very worried as early as the Wolves home game. Winning these kind of matches are vital because then you don't have to rely on beating the best. That's where Moyes has failed this season. Winning the matches we should be winning.
Steve Barr
20   Posted 15/02/2011 at 23:42:59

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I've said before that we are in trouble based on the overall performances this season.

However, looking at this run in, if we can't get enough points to stay up then shame on the players.

Notwithstanding finances, this squad is more than capable of staying up. They should be ashamed that they have performed so pathetically that they have put us in this position.

I recommend they get their arses into gear and earn their not insignificant money.
Steve Barr
21   Posted 15/02/2011 at 23:46:15

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Oh and by the way, Moyes is certainly partly to blame but this isn't American football where every play is called by the coach. There is a certain spontaneity in "real football". Some of our more gifted players should have the balls to use this skill and take ownership and play!

After all, based on Moyes record of not dropping his favourites, they will hardly be penalized for not following his instructions!
Sean McCarthy
22   Posted 15/02/2011 at 23:48:46

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Noboby doubts we're in trouble but what would any of the names mentioned to replay DM do??

Keegan? Do me a favour? Holloway and Coyne are current flavour of the month. Let's not forget where Holloway's team are. Dropping like a stone!!

To believe someone like Klinsman would come to Everton is as fanciful as those pre-season who thought top 4 was a shoe-in!!

Big Sam? No thanx! Jones? Once a blue etc etc but it cries of desperation. O'Neill would want what we can't give him... Money! If Moyes goes, and I think he will, we won't be attracting too many big names, I'm afraid.

Steve Barr
23   Posted 15/02/2011 at 23:46:15

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Oh and by the way, Moyes is certainly partly to blame but this isn't American football where every play is called by the coach. There is a certain spontaneity in "real football". Some of our more gifted players should have the balls to use this skill and take ownership and play!

After all, based on Moyes's record of not dropping his favourites, they will hardly be penalized for not following his instructions!
Dennis Stevens
24   Posted 15/02/2011 at 23:52:20

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I can't help thinking the safety mark may be nearer 45 points than 40. Knowing how football throws up little ironies, it would be no surprise for us to go into our last game needing a favour from Chelsea to save us... again ? I hope it's not 3rd time unlucky!
Steve Guy
25   Posted 16/02/2011 at 00:04:24

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John #16. If you have predicted 60+ points, please lay off the magic mushrooms. If we got to 45, I would be ecstatic!
Jim Hillier
26   Posted 16/02/2011 at 00:19:05

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What a load of bollocks. No way in a million years we are going down ? quite apart from the fact out team does not start with the letter W:

Wigan
West Brom
West Ham

And if not those three, then Wolves...

Those are the teams going down; get a grip, boys!
Kirk McArdle
27   Posted 16/02/2011 at 01:32:44

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One can only hope that Moyes's comments about "Maybe I have gone a little too soft on the players" is his own Ronaldo tackle moment.

With Chelsea in a battle with a couple of teams for 4th place, they are going to have to concentrate on this seasons CL for a main prize. Maybe this weekend is a good time to play them.

With the remaining teams to play laid out in the OP you have to think that we can obtain the required amount of points to secure Premier League football next season. But I have thought that most of this season. "We will turn the crap round this game for sure", "It's only West Brom at home. Gonna be a cricket score"... But it's never come. I didn't think we could win the league but I thought we would be in amongst the challengers off of the back of last season. There were a few doubters on here but the general concensous was one of belief.

HOW WRONG WERE WE ALL!

I have a couple of points:

1: Title of this post. So fitting. If we do go down then there is no quick way back.

2: West Ham were relegated with I think 43 points a few seasons ago with a very close league. 40 points may not be enough for anyone.

3: Even if we do stay up, I feel with the current setup at the club, then next season is a very big worry. The owners of QPR will spend to keep them there. I don't think there are gonna be any walkovers for any team next year.

4: Jimmy Daly, for even suggesting Keegan... What did the 5 fingers say to the face? SLAP!

Jamie Sweet
28   Posted 16/02/2011 at 07:27:16

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Don't worry ? we've just signed a 16-year-old goalkeeper who used to be a striker... I presume as cover for Howard and Saha at the same time.

When the chips are down, sod bringning in a new striker on loan with Premier League experience (as have West Ham, West Brom, Bolton, Blackburn, Stoke, Birmingham), let's bring in teenage utility players and Greek lads "for the future".

What a fucking joke we are.

If the people at the helm of our club didn't realise we were in a relegation battle in January then they deserve the sack. If they did realise, yet did NOTHING about it apart from making our squad weaker, then they deserve fucking shooting!
Andy Callan
29   Posted 16/02/2011 at 08:27:56

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I agree Jamie - we're fucked; a total laughing stock.

Even if we managed to scrape to stay in the division, then what next? Where do we go from there?

With finished 4th and got NO fuckin' investment, so finishing 16th or 17th isn't going to inspire the board to put their hands in their pockets is it?

Is this what this club has come to; just survival?

Dunno why we all fuckin' bother me.....

We?ll get dicked on Saturday and then have the Maccams, Barcodes and Fulham ? can you honestly see us beating any of them, based on current form? Someone above said that we might beat the Mancs or Sittehhhh, but it?s beating the teams around us that matters. There?s not fuckin? point whatsoever in beating United then losing away to Wigan?.

If we get relegated we?re royally fucked.
Anthony Hughes
30   Posted 16/02/2011 at 09:05:19

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If we get relegated at least we'll probably be on Sky's friday night game every week next season!!!
Chris Keightley
31   Posted 16/02/2011 at 09:06:00

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If we get relegated we get a large parachute payment... maybe Kenwright's got his eye on that???
Dave Lynch
32   Posted 16/02/2011 at 10:16:59

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I honestly fail to see where the 40+ points are going to come from!

Moyes seems to be retreating further into his defensive shell as the crisis deepens and the likes of Newcastle, Sunderland and Fulham will smell blood. Wolves will be no pushover either.

There is no way we will get anything from either Manc team, so forget that and Chelsea last game may well be the catalyst.

I fear this may be one relegation fight too far and Davey's bi-polar reign as manager may result in the biggest car crash in Everton's history.

Ted Smeethes
33   Posted 16/02/2011 at 10:28:44

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We won't be relegated... cheer up everyone, Why is everyone so miserable. We'll end up in mid table which is what we are and have been for the last few years.

And we're going to win on Saturday before going onto win our 6th FA Cup. No problems. If fans have a more positive mental attitutude this attitude will transcend through to our over paid plonkers on the pitch. Come on you Blues!

Dave Lynch
34   Posted 16/02/2011 at 11:21:02

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Ted @ 32.
And they say sarcasm doesn't come across in type.
Love it.
Colin O'Keeffe
35   Posted 16/02/2011 at 11:17:01

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Oh dear, what a load of doom mongering, pessimistic rubbish this thread is. We will finish with around 50 points this season in my opinion. Saha will be back for Sunderland and we'll paste them 2-0, followed by a long unbeaten run at home until the end of the season. We'll also pick up away wins at Wigan and West Brom to leave us on 55 points and an eighth-place finish. FFS, Cheer up!
Tony McNulty
36   Posted 16/02/2011 at 11:59:21

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We're so unpredictable ? beating Man City away one week, the Blackpool at home performance, Bolton last week (abject shite). I haven't a clue precisely what will happen, but I am sure we won't be going down.

However, can someone confirm this ? didn't West Ham get 42 points one year and go down?
Norman Merrill
37   Posted 16/02/2011 at 12:00:03

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Colin c34. I like your pessimistic forcast, but we are talking about Everton here? The way we have played this season, you could not realistically say who we will pick points up against.

I wonder what odds I would get for us collecting points at two grounds that we always come away from empty-handed: St James & Old Trafford.

Its going to be a rough ride, unless things on the park improve... and quick.

Shaun Brennan
38   Posted 16/02/2011 at 12:30:43

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Don't worry, lads.. next season will be our season.

(Now where I have heard that before?)
Andrew Brennan
39   Posted 16/02/2011 at 14:17:01

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The only way David Moyes will not be managing this team next season is if he chooses to go. Bill Kenwright adores him and the payout Moyes would receive as a result of giving him his P45 is one that the club simply can't afford.

He signed a £16m deal in 2008, any breaking of that contract now would mean a multi-million pound payout for Moyes.
Anthony Hughes
40   Posted 16/02/2011 at 14:59:46

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It's crazy to think now that some posters on here thought we would win the league at the start of the season.
Duncan McDine
41   Posted 16/02/2011 at 14:48:58

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I honestly fear that without Saha back, we'll be finishing the season on less than 40 points... it'll be touch and go if that puts us in the bottom 3.

If, however, he can come back in a couple of games time, then he should score enough to keep us up. Whoever thinks we should play 2 upfront when Saha is injured should have a long hard think about that ? Anichebe and Beckford!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Vic is the biggest pile of shite at the moment, and Becks needs a quality CF to feed off.

Without a fit Saha, I'd probably put Felli up with Cahill behind ? it served a purpose for a while last season, even though it wasn't pretty. I'd get Jags back in to replace the sleepy JH, and possibly move the dodgy Dutch "hardman" alongside Arteta to try and win the ball in midfield.

I know we'd be weakened without Felli in midfield, but at least we'd be a bit of a threat upfront.

I can't honestly watch another game where every ball into the front man gets lost. Big Vic can only be used on the wing IF/WHEN he's in form... not our lone striker for fuck's sake, Moyes!!!!

Andy Mack
42   Posted 16/02/2011 at 14:51:59

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I just can't see us picking up that many points in the remaining games looking at our squad, we are usually weak finishers in the league for starters, we haven't even managed to get into the top half of the table yet this season and we've got a feeble strike force plus a leaky defence ? a recipe for a train wreck of a run in.

Have the team had their usual once-a-year clear-the-air talks with Moyes and his staff yet? That might be the only hope.
Colin McBride
43   Posted 16/02/2011 at 16:35:15

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Holy crap, after reading the comments on here I want to do myself in.

We have only lost 7 games out of 26 and you have us losing 5 of the last 10? That's complete crap. We will be all right (just). Next season is the one we need to worry about.
Robert Workman
44   Posted 16/02/2011 at 16:52:47

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Re - Post 26
Almost in total agreement. I forecast Wigan, West Brom and Wolves for relegation before season began. Still believe they will be the 3 to drop.
Tony Doran
45   Posted 16/02/2011 at 17:42:52

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For fucks sake will everybody get a grip. Lay off Moyes and even the players as it's not their fault they're not good enough. If we needed me to play 'cause we were short of players I would do and I've just had my 3rd hernia opp. Everyone cheer up, got to go now just watching a cracking film called the Titanic.
Bren Connor
46   Posted 16/02/2011 at 18:57:25

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Going on our form this season you should have filled in the points prediction like this:

home: Sunderland (1), Birmingham (1), Fulham (1), Aston Villa (1), Blackburn (1) Man City (3), and Chelsea (3). 11 points.

Away, we have Newcastle (0), Wolves (0), Man Utd (3), Wigan (1), West Brom (0). (4 points)

Something like that, anyway. Whatever way round you do it, it's probably just enough to keep us out of the Championship until 2012.
Dick Fearon
47   Posted 16/02/2011 at 19:19:29

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Should Moyes's best-ever squad to live up to his words and he himself were to adopt a more attacking attitude, the magic 40 can be reached in our next four games.

No longer can we afford the out dated tactic of having every man on the pumps at the slightest danger. That is like fighting with one arm tied behind your back.

James Martin
48   Posted 16/02/2011 at 19:35:34

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I know we've been playing badly recently and some of those predictions are probably acurate in terms of current form, but come on, everyone knows that, when our tails are up and our big players perform, we can wipe the floor with half the teams listed there. Everton usually need their backs pressed right up against it before they perform but we're more tan capable of winning a lot of those games.
David Hallwood
49   Posted 16/02/2011 at 19:47:22

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Anthony Hughes (#40), I was one of the posters that thought we had an outside chance of the title; the reason was that I had seen a struggling side in 83-84 transform into a great side with one of the finest midfields, we've seen.

This time last year I experienced deja vu, when I saw an Everton side beat Chelsea, Citteh & Man U, not the usual giant killing way of two banks of 4, in their faces, fight for every ball ect, but by outplaying them, and our form in the 2nd half of the season was only bettered by Chelsea & Man U. In addition, the sky 4 are not as good as they were 5-10 seasons ago so there was plenty of reasons to be optimistic.

Now? Like 50% of the posters on this thread I think we?ve got enough to stay up, so let?s hope that Bolton was the Hull City moment, or the Wigan moment of the season before last.
Steve Woods
50   Posted 16/02/2011 at 20:08:07

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@49 - David
"let?s hope that Bolton was the Hull City moment, or the Wigan moment of the season before last.. "

I thought we have had enough of those (Hull) moments this season. I include the Newcastle moment, the WBA moment, the West Ham moment amongst others...

We seem unable to kick on off the back of the rare decent performances (Spurs, Chelsea, Blackpool). I have not got a clue which Everton is going to turn up in any of the remaining matches. Therefore I have no clue as to whether or not we can remain in the top flight, a record of longevity only just surpassed by the (Woolwich) Arsenal.

After 45 years of support I have never felt so concerned about the state of Everton FC as a club and as a team.
Chris Kennedy
51   Posted 16/02/2011 at 21:31:39

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The issue is we had players who want a big move.. hence better performance against the better paying clubs.
Chris Kennedy
52   Posted 16/02/2011 at 21:36:08

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Have not had..
Mick Gallagher
53   Posted 16/02/2011 at 22:59:22

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Don't worry the early bird season tickets prices will be out soon.
Tom Bowers
54   Posted 16/02/2011 at 23:15:48

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With players being in and out through injury, being in form and out of form and having a manager who just doesn't have any alternative plans, we have arrived after a poor season to a point which is scary to say the least.

I would rather be playing a Prem game on Saturday rather than the cup as other teams may pick up points and then we will have games in hand which tend to have a bigger pressure effect on the team when they are eventually played.

Personally I would play some fringe players on Saturday and keep key players fresh for the next league game. However, that probably will not happen and in any event would not be fair to the travelling faithful.

All remaining games will be tough, as everyone has been for Everton up to now since the start of the season. Not having a fully fit Jagielka around and now a resurgent Saha and Rodwell is a big blow. The only natural goal poacher we have left is Beckford who simply needs more support over the next few weeks but Moyes now favours Anichebe who looks less and less a striker.

Obviously the club has to think positively and go out and give 110% in every game to alleviate relegation fears sooner rather than later.

Chris Leyland
55   Posted 17/02/2011 at 19:29:37

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By the way, it was Nov 2009 the last time we lost 2 league games on the run.

49-51 points we will end up with and a 9th to 11th place finsh.

Next year Is out year, mark my words. With the Greek lad up front, those, the young German commanding the back, young Americans coming through, that new goalie we signed on trial, and Jeffers signed in the summer...
Dennis Stevens
56   Posted 18/02/2011 at 01:15:55

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It was 3 in a row, Chris.

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