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Bad Weather drives man to Statistical Analysis

Yet another defeat at the home of one of the ‘traditional’ top four extends David Moyes's remarkable record of never having won an away game at Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea or Man United in over 10 years of trying.

But just how ‘remarkable’ is this? A cold wet day and not much else to do provided an opportunity to mull over the stats...

Since the beginning of Moyes’s first full season, the ‘top four’ (I use the term loosely) have lost a total of 80 home games between them (Liverpool 26, Arsenal 21, Chelsea 18, Manchester United 15). Of these, 35 were lost against fellow ‘top four’ teams. Man Utd are the most successful at winning at the homes of their fellow ‘top four’ teams with 11 wins, followed by Chelsea (10) Arsenal (8) and Liverpool (6).

This leaves a total of 45 occasions when the 'top four' lost to ‘lower’ opposition. Most successful in claiming ‘top four’ scalps have been:

Aston Villa (6),
Man City (5),
Blackburn (4),
Spurs (4),
West Ham (4),
Wigan (3),
Newcastle (2),
West Brom (2),
Fulham (2),
Bolton (2).

One win has been achieved by 11 more clubs.

Of course we are not the only club who have failed to win at a ‘top four’ ground in the past 10 years – there are 10 others. The big difference is that 6 of these teams played only a single season in the top flight, 3 just 3 seasons, and Portsmouth for 5. So, given the number of chances we have had, we certainly are something of an oddity in not having achieved a single win over such a protracted period.

So... a remarkable record? Probably.

Alan Burnham, Liverpool, Merseyside Posted 11/02/2013 at 15:46:52

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James Morgan
403 Posted 11/02/2013 at 17:44:59

I almost posted today to ask someone with a bit of time on their hands to look up other teams record away at the old Sky 4. It seems considering the number of attempts we've had to do it, we are shite at getting wins there.
It's got to give soon.

Robin Cannon
421 Posted 11/02/2013 at 18:12:40

Does anyone know how it actually breaks down into points gained at top 4 teams, as opposed to just wins? Or goals scored?

Although the record is "remarkable" in the sense that it's unusual and noticeable, I'm not sure how much we can really read into it.

Feels like we have a pretty solid record of avoiding defeat at Chelsea the last few years - but they're the only team I feel like we've done consistently OK when we visit. At home, also feels like we do OK against Chelsea and Arsenal, and to a lesser extent United. Mediocrity against the shite all the time.

But I can only really think of one game in the last decade where we legitimately were unlucky to not break that streak, and that's conceding an injury time equalizer at Arsenal a couple of years back.

Barry Rathbone
432 Posted 11/02/2013 at 18:31:59

It isn't "not winning" in 48 tries - it's the assured prior knowledge we won't win.

As Andy Crooks commented - "woeful"

Gerry Quinn
435 Posted 11/02/2013 at 18:43:54

...and how many of them actually finished above us the season they won at one of those grounds?

Michael Winstanley
437 Posted 11/02/2013 at 18:47:17

Robin, I'm not sure how much we can really read into it.

Have another read of those stats and have a think about it.

Dick Fearon
470 Posted 11/02/2013 at 19:33:46

Those sad stats are symptomatic of how Moyes approaches away games to the top four. A kind of the meek will inherit the world but only if 'they' let us.

For all that I dislike about our neighbours it cannot be denied that they bend their knee to no-one. Hailing from the Shankly era, they have inherited his fighting 'take no prisoners' attitude. Unlike so many Blues fans, their fans will not accept shite and their players are aware of it.

James Morgan
476 Posted 11/02/2013 at 19:44:59

Gerry, I don't think that's the point. It would just be nice to get the odd win at one of these grounds sometime.
Granted, you don't get any more points for winning there than you do at the home of any other team, but it would be a joy to sing in the face of our hated rivals after turning them over at Anfield or shutting up those arrogant Mancs.
Not to mention you need to take points off those above you to really gain ground on them.

Michael Winstanley
480 Posted 11/02/2013 at 19:57:30

Agree with that Dick. It's about having the winning mentality, Moyes doesn't have it and as a result our team doesn't have it.

Robin Cannon
483 Posted 11/02/2013 at 19:34:07

"Have another read of those stats and have a think about it."

Yes, they don't mean a great deal in isolation. They also effectively "prove" existing preconceptions.

Taking the last five full seasons we've picked up 27 points from a possible 120 against Liverpool, Arsenal, Man Utd and Chelsea. Pretty paltry, although I have no idea how it compares to other teams who we might consider our peers.

Our worst record in those five seasons is against Arsenal (W0, D2, L8), then Liverpool (W1, D2, L7), then United (W1, D3, L6) and our best record is against Chelsea (W3, D5, L2).

Villa (the most successful team at the "big four" above, have picked up 37 points in the same period. So 2 points extra a season. They've also, not including this season's hammering at Chelsea, conceded 8 once, 7 once, and at least one 5-0 loss, too.

I agree that if you don't set out to win then you won't. I don't think our record is absolute proof of anything, though. Away record probably a combination of an overly conservative approach, the quality of the teams we're playing, and bad luck on a couple of occasions.

Michael Winstanley
491 Posted 11/02/2013 at 20:09:07

The reason we don't win away is because we are set up not to lose. That was evident yesterday when we didn't press high up the pitch. If the attitude is to win then I think we would more often, far too much respect is given before a ball is kicked. Moyes hates City, we comfortably give them a game and have been unlucky not to win on more than one occasion, simply because we have a go.

Paul Andrews
502 Posted 11/02/2013 at 20:49:35

Moyes today "If you would have said before the season we could get 2 points from Utd in 2 games we would have that,we actually got 3 "

That sums up his mentality and football philosophy perfectly.

Steavey Buckley
564 Posted 11/02/2013 at 22:23:30

Everton could not win yesterday because they are unable to keep a clean sheet against the top teams. This season, so far, have only kept one clean sheet against a top team. And that was against man united at the very first game.

Kevin Tully
582 Posted 11/02/2013 at 23:02:46

Make that 3 for West Brom now Alan!

Mike Allison
115 Posted 13/02/2013 at 21:57:00

Most of those teams get to go to Anfield and beat a shit Liverpool side though. Liverpool raise their game 300% against us no matter how bad they are against everyone else.

Brian Cleveland
164 Posted 14/02/2013 at 05:40:04

Mike, we can't say to Liverpool, hey that's not right, you have to play shit against us like you do against the others!

Our players have to raise their game too, and by more than theirs if we want to get anything out of it,....

Think positive, not negative!

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