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What Do The Stats Say?

In the last five years, there have been 29 teams that have played in the Premier League. I have looked at what impact a change of manager whilst in the PL has had on each club, and more importantly what the profile of each manager was. The profiles being:– (1) Foreign with no PL experience; (2) Foreign with PL experience; (3) British; No PL experience. I have judged whether each new manager has had a positive, neutral or negative impact at each club, based upon how he changed the club relative to how he found it.

Arsenal, Man Utd, and Everton haven’t changed managers during this time; also Blackpool and Stoke never changed manager during their time in the PL. Reading this season were already down and the season nearly over when Nigel Atkins came in so he’s not included.

There have been 49 new managers at clubs while still in the PL during this time.

Foreign with no PL experience has a success rate of 62.5% — Positive: 5, Neutral: 1, Negative: 2

Foreign with PL experience has a success rate of 25% — Positive: 2, Neutral: 2, Negative: 4

British Manager has a success rate of 25% — Positive: 7, Neutral: 7, Negative: 14

No experience In Management has a success rate of 20%— Positive: 1, Neutral: 0, Negative: 4

The results show that only foreign managers coming to the PL without experience have an outstanding record with a 62.5% success rate. The five successes in the last five years are: Hiddink, Ancelotti, Mancini, Pochettino and Laudrup.

The one neutral performer is Paulo Di Canio, and the two negative performers are Scolari and Andreas Villas-Boas. Had Chelsea persevered with AVB, he may well have done okay (their current star performers were signed under him) and I’ve been harsh in classing him as negative. I class Pochettino as a success because he’s got Southampton playing some decent football and achieved his first target of survival comfortably. Going back further Jose and Rafa stand out as successes during their first spells in the PL.

So... is appointing a foreigner with no EPL experience such a risk?

As for the foreigners with PL experience, an ordinary 25% success rate may be clouded by the fact that Avram Grant accounts for two of the negative results for his spells at Pompey and West Ham, and Gerard Houllier had to leave Aston Villa because of health issues and Roberto Martinez is the fourth negative — although he’s revered for what he’s done at Wigan by many.

British managers have the largest test sample and haven’t set the world alight with a 25% success rate.

Untried managers come in with the lowest success rate at 20%, the one success being Steve Clarke. Chris Hughton hasn’t been factored in because Newcastle were in the Championship when he took over. The four negatives are: Steve Kean; Tony Adams; Shearer; Terry Connor.

Of course this is too small a test sample with lots of variable factors; I just thought it was quite interesting.

David Stuart, Liverpool Posted 29/05/2013 at 17:09:29

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Sur Jo
517 Posted 29/05/2013 at 18:29:01

Interesting analysis.

Will you publish the new results without the top 4, i.e., Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool and Spurs in your sample? (as I understand you left out ManU and Arsenal out for obvious reasons)

The conclusion that appointing a foreigner with no EPL experience is biased in the sense that only happens at the Top 4.

How about teams outside the top 4?

David Stuart
540 Posted 29/05/2013 at 19:00:41

This is only from changes in the last five years. The only two foreign appointments without PL experience are Swansea and Southampton. I can't really think of any from outside the bigger clubs before that off the top of my head, just Egil Olsen at Wimbledon way back in 1999 - that ended in disaster.

David Stuart
543 Posted 29/05/2013 at 19:04:19

* Swansea and Southampton outside the bigger clubs *

Fran Mitchell
561 Posted 29/05/2013 at 19:14:21

What a out Benítez and di Matteo at Chelsea? Booth positive, Booth foreoign with PL experience.

Southgate, Paul Lambert - negative

Zola - positive then negative (foreign no PL experience)

Hodgson (2 positives 1 negative)

Hughes (1 positive 1 negative)

Redknapp (1+ 2-)

Essentially, it don't tell us much

David Stuart
577 Posted 29/05/2013 at 19:47:25

Here's the break down of the who and how:

Aston Villa: Martin O’Neil Neg; Gerard Houllier Neg; Alex McLeish Neg; Paul Lambert Neut
Birmingham: Alex Mcleish Neg
Blackburn Rovers: Paul Ince Neg; Sam Allardice Pos; Steve Kean Neg
Bolton: Owen Coyle Neg
Burnley: Bryan Laws Neg
Chelsea: Scolari Neg: Hiddink Pos; Ancelotti Pos; AVB neg; RDM Pos; Rafa Pos
Fulham: Roy Hodgson Pos; Mark Hughes Pos; Martin Jol Neut
Hull City: Iain Dowie Neg
Liverpool: Roy Hodgson Neg; Dalgleish Neg; Brendan Rodgers Neut
Man City: Mark Hughes Neg; Mancini Pos
Newcastle: Keegan Neut; Kinnear Neut; Shearer Neg; Pardew Neut
Norwich: Hughton Neut
Portsmouth: Tony Adams Neg; Paul Hart Neg; Avram Grant Neg
QPR: Mark Hughes Neg; Redknapp Neg
Southampton: Pochettino Pos
Sunderland: Steve Bruce Neut; O’Neil Neg; Di Canio Neut
Swansea: Laudrup Pos
Tottenham: Redknapp Pos; AVB Neut
WBA: Roy Hodgson Pos; Steve Clarke Pos
West Ham: Zola Neg; Avram Grant Neg
Wigan: Steve Bruce Pos; Roberto Martinez Neg
Wolves: Terry Connor Neg

Patrick Murphy
579 Posted 29/05/2013 at 19:51:47

As pissed as neuts I can believe that about a few of them. But it is interesting how it pans out.

Dennis Stevens
652 Posted 29/05/2013 at 21:49:17

I hope all those neuts get better.

Bjørn-Ivar Pedersen
709 Posted 29/05/2013 at 22:54:06

If this should be taken seriously, then this is just one more argument to hire Pereira.

Jackie Barry
757 Posted 30/05/2013 at 03:53:16

Interesting, but not many foreign managers have had extended stay in the EPL have they? The only one I can really think of is Wenger.

Jason Lam
761 Posted 30/05/2013 at 04:22:56

Just hire a new foreign manager each season. Like how used to we chew and spit out strikers.

Dave Lawley
848 Posted 30/05/2013 at 10:35:39

Jackie, I guess fergie and Moyes should be classed as foreign?

Ross Edwards
958 Posted 30/05/2013 at 14:36:28

Well Dave, if Scotland votes for independance in 2014, Moyes and Fergie will be foreign.

Stuart Gray
439 Posted 31/05/2013 at 08:30:29

This really isn't that scientific is it? It's just opinion. To say Oneill was a negative at Aston Villa is a bit wrong. The problem is most teams change bosses when they are struggling and so continue to struggle.

Of the teams that were stable, like us, I'd look at Spurs (you can exclude Chelsea and City because they aren't stable, they just have money - which we don't). Spurs appointed 2 managers with prem experience. Both positive on your list. Maybe that is what we should be looking at?

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