Sheff Utd and Burnley are already down. It remains for Luton, Forest, Everton and Brentford to fight their way out of trouble.
How are these teams shaping up?
Well, the sadly significant thing to note is that we do not have the best squad or First XI out of this lot. Being Everton means nothing these days after chronic negative investment in the football club. Due to good recruitment / investment over an extended period, Brentford are best by some distance. Due to reckless spending for which they haven’t been properly punished, Forest are second best (in fact a whole Gibbs-White worth of difference). In fact it’s only Luton that have a worse squad. Transfermarkt rates the squad values as follows:
· Brentford: £426,08m
· Forest: £369.65m
· Everton: £345.40m
· Luton: £125.10m
This is kind of borne out when you try to come up with a best XI out of these clubs.
· Pickford
· Branthwaite
· Tarkowski
· Williams
· Doughty
· Onana
· Jensen
· Gibbs-White
· Mbuemo
· Elanga
· Toney
I’ve given us four spots in this side. You might make a case for one or two others (probably Mykolenko) – but equally you could make a case for the likes of Murrillo, Sangare, Danilo, Hudson-Odoi and Awoyinyi of Forest – or Collins, Henry, Hickey and Janelt of Brentford – or Barkley, Adebayo or Morris of Luton.
It’s also notable that we have no-one in a remotely attacking spot in this side. We have a very, very weak attack indeed (and I include the full backs in that). Add Gibbs-White, Mbeumo and Elanga to our side and it finishes top half. Unfortunately, we have Doucoure, Harrison and McNeil in these positions…
Still all is not lost when you look at the form book. Although our form is terrible – that is true of our relegation rivals too.
In the last 5 games, the four clubs have accrued the following points:
· Brentford (29 games / 26 points): 1 point
· Everton (28 games / 31 points and 6 deducted): 2 points
· Luton (29 games / 22 points): 2 points
· Forest (29 games / 25 points and 4 deducted): 4 points (albeit the one victory was 5 games ago)
If these clubs carry on at the same sort of rate to the remainder of the season, it will finish as:
· Everton: 29 points (with the best goal difference and a game in hand)
· Forest: 29 points
· Brentford: 28 points
· Luton: 26 points
It seems likely obviously that there will be a few twists and turns – and indeed the possibility that the corrupt Premier League robs us of another 3 points (as they have done more justifiably with Forest). That will make things very, very difficult indeed. However, just 2 wins in the next 10 games could be easily enough to stay up – and it is possible that we could fail to win another game this season and still stay up. Lots to play for.