Bridging the Gap

Phil McNulty, writing for the BBC today, has commented that the other lot are now certainties to win this season's Premier League title, given the money spent on “star” players, a mere formality, he says. It sort of annoyed me.

Of course, life is not as straightforward as that, individuals may not make the best teams. We have all seen it before, would've, could've, should've. Groups of players in clubs that didn’t knit together, perform or win. Managers who make wrong decisions, injuries, or bad decisions that cost games etc. It is the unpredictability of all those unknowns that makes the game so good — and, conversely, so bad. 

But the article did make me think about how other teams and managers facing alleged “super teams” should approach playing them, what competition is, indeed, the very essence of the game itself. “Tippy, tappy” or “getting stuck in” the latter, frowned upon by football purists and even the league itself, with its virtual contact-free approach to refereeing.

The best players do not necessarily make the best teams. Leicester City proved that, but we seemed to have fallen into a self-fulfilling prophecy, that we or anybody, for that matter, simply aren’t good enough to compete against them. It’s an excuse made by managers far too often when faced with clubs with limitless funds and squads they can only dream of. Does “Knife to a gunfight” ring any bells? They have lost before even stepping on to the pitch.

An obvious prediction is that those players with skillsets way above their opponents will easily win, but that’s not true either, because their opponents’ “skills” will often hamper, nullify or frustrate and hence the result of some games are not as predictable as we think. The betting industry makes a fortune every week based on the unpredictability of outcomes.

The Premier League is not just about six clubs battling for honours, it’s about 20 clubs being successful. The measure of that success is 17 of them staying in the league first and foremost, winning a trophy for two or three, and qualification for European football for six or seven clubs at the least. That means the remaining 10 clubs, half the league, are also-rans, just making up the numbers for those clubs with the money, management and players to succeed.

Throughout the season, pundits predict the six or seven teams that will qualify for Europe, win trophies or even be relegated. Based on net spend, players available etc, there is no doubt that the monetary gulf between clubs in the Premier League makes the ability to compete an almost insurmountable problem for some clubs.

Add to that changes to the number of substitutes, squad-cost ratios or PSR, rigging of cup draws to suit certain clubs, and you can start to realise that it's not a level playing field anymore, if it ever was. The game has been doctored, a gravy train, a closed shop designed to safeguard a few.

“So, tell us something we don’t know!” I hear you say…

For a start, clubs are not unbeatable. A clever manager realises this and looks to exploit weaknesses, tactics or individuals, and counter them or nullify the threat. In truth, that’s about as far as most get and they are nearly always unsuccessful. Even the best teams have an off day and, although rarely are they outplayed, they are often out-fought.

This game is about winning, not stopping the opposition from beating you. How often have we seen lowly teams take the game to Man City or Arsenal and beat them because they had a go, had a plan and fought to make it happen? Good fortune doesn’t just happen, it's usually the result of a lot of unseen but obvious hard graft.

It's why those teams win, because the opposition didn’t turn up, they let them play their game or just plain rolled over. We have seen Everton teams in the past few years do that far too often and it’s a mindset that’s hard to break. Psychologically, they are beaten before they even step on the pitch.

Which brings me to our club and David Moyes. In his last term in office, he was renowned for making Everton the ”Best of the Rest.” However, he was also known for his inability to go toe-to-toe with the big clubs, even when we were playing well.

“Keep it tight and nick one” was the mantra... except it never worked against the big clubs or on the big occasions. We all knew it was 11 men behind the ball for 89 minutes or until we went behind. It was the biggest failure of David Moyes's first term as manager at Everton.

Here we are, 12 years on, and David Moyes is back… but has he changed? I doubt it in my heart, but I hope to God he has.

Tactically and psychologically, how do we beat the Top 6?

For a start, they all can be beaten, and I would gather videos of every defeat they have had in the past couple of seasons and dissect them, show them to the players until they understand what they need to do to make it happen.

Get inside every player’s head, build them up, tell them how they can defeat their opponent, show them how to nullify the opposition.

Tactically set up to surprise them, to win, not to prevent getting beaten. There is a difference, and it isn’t keep it tight and … blah, blah.. No, take the game to them; after all, if you go there expecting nothing and just pack your area, big deal… you might get a point if you are very lucky. If you lose while having a plan and it fails, then at least you didn’t roll over and accept defeat.

Remember, “the best form of defence is attack” or “they can’t score if the ball is in their penalty area more than yours”.  We all know the reality, but there is some truth in it. Can we change David Moyes's habits of a lifetime?

This last transfer window has brought in some exciting players — not journeymen, not experienced defenders, but players who want to play and win. I would say, for the first time in 30 years, we have a group of players who want to play attacking football rather than a tactical exercise in survival.

The reality for David Moyes must be that he understands he cannot play any other way tactically with the group of players we now have. They are competitive, hungry and skilful, full of the expectation of winning, attacking the opposition, and ignoring their reputation.

Just exactly how they will be set up to win is up to David Moyes. His inspiration, tactics, and ability to get the very best out of the squad. But more than ever, he has to gamble with his own inclination for caution against the Top 6 and actively find and probe their weak spots.

I am looking forward to every Top 6 game, with the other lot being first up. It will set the trend for the season and tell us in reality which version of David Moyes we have.  The Top 6 will change… is changing, despite Sky, the EPL, what pundits think or say — and that’s good for the game.

You have to believe your club is the one. I do. Over to you, David!

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