The Mail Bag
Time to be pragmatic
Comments (15)
I've noticed on ToffeeWeb recently some signs of optimism. There are those who appear to believe that, with an injury free run, our squad is strong enough and that next season will be our time. This is Everton... what are the chances of an injury-free run?
Others, myself included, feel we need to strengthen; unfortunately... we are broke. Perhaps Bill's mythical 24/7 search for a billionaire will pay dividends; I'm not holding my breath.
In my view, there is only one likely way to move the club forward and that is to sell our most marketable asset: Jack Rodwell. This summer, I believe there will be two major buying clubs: Man City — because they can... Chelsea — because they must.
In Lampard and Ballack, Chelsea have two midfielders approaching their sell-by date. If Jack Rodwell fulfills his potential, he could (in two years time) be a replacement. At the moment he is a good player who may become a great player. Chelsea can afford to take a chance on his potential, Everton can't.
If he were to be sold for, say, £16-£20 million with, £3-£4 million in add-ons plus a percentage of any sell-on, Everton would hopefully be in a position to buy. I'm using the following players, merely as examples as I have no idea as to their availability:
For that sort of money, we could buy Parker or Ireland plus Wright-Phillips as well as cover at left back. In other words, start next season with a substantially stronger squad.
This is not selling off the family silver, nor is it a sign of lack of ambition. It is, in fact, the opposite. It is making a bold decision at our time of choosing to strengthen the squad. Why wait till the vultures come circling in September?
What is the alternative?
Andy Crooks, Posted 21/03/2010 at
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While i can see the benefits of a transfer pot spent wisely that might just see us compete at the very top I would be devastated to see Rodwell leave for anything less than an exorbitant £30 or so million.
The pleasure i get from having one of the most exciting young talents in the country is almost irreplaceable (though winning something would admittedly help). Rodwell has the lot and stands a very good chance of becoming a future captain of England...would be absolutley gutted if that turned out to be in a Chelsea shirt.
Of course there is the risk that he becomes another Francis Jeffers...but for me that risk is worth taking. We'll be lucky to develop another potential England captain with blue blood in the next 6 years or so. So lets hold onto this one.
I feel we ARE only about three players short of regularly challenging the big three (there's no four any more there's three with four possibles to make the fourth spot)....
It's a question of having the money to buy those three players....
Because make no mistake if Moyes keeps this squad together and builds on the current run we can challenge the top 4 in the near future.
I think if we got rid of Yobo,Yak and got a top class centre half and goalscorer in we'd be a match for anybody but we should NOT sell our "young" assets.
Until Kenwright brings in the investment required, then you are right. We will be selling players every year. I suspect though we won't be dictating at that stage who goes.
I don't agree. This is one of the best squads in the prem - maybe the best outside the top three. Yes, some areas can be improved. But look at the bench yesterday.
This year we will finish on around 60 pts and probably miss Europe. We left ourselves too much to do when we couldn't put a player on the bench who anybody outside EFC had heard of.
If we keep the squad together and don't have an injury crisis, then next year we will be easily 10 points better. Easily. And that is top 4. I think that - given the ifs - is realistic.
But you carry on worrying about relegation like you 'pragmatic' guys were three months ago. Like I said - it's your right, and choice.
I actually agree with most of what Andy says and it will be SELL in the summer for the best price we can get before we can go out and buy. Sadly as it is world cup year the players there will be the ones in the shop window ie Pienaar and the ones most likely to attract bids.
We are quite a few players short of the top 3 my estimates would be
R/B Coleman has potential and Nevilles ok but !
C/B If Johnnys there with Jags ok if not !
R/MID Landon would be the answer , but Anicebee no effin way.
Striker. Saha is getting on and is the original Balsa man , Yak i'm never sure, and really we should have 3 top strikers .
Thats a £30 mill at least shopping list and you can bet your arse that there will be at least 7 other teams willing to outbid us.
Who to buy ?
R/B ?
C/H, Onuha from Citeh
R/MID ,Donovan or N'zogbia Wigan
Striker, ?
Any suggestions
I would rather sell Vaughan, Yakubu AND Cahill before selling Rodwell.
How much did we get for Rooney? How much is he worth now (if you could even buy him)?
Not saying Rodwell is in Rooney's class (now) but if we sell Rodwell without him wanting to go, what does that say to everyone?
If he wants to go, that's another matter but right now we're not hearing that and I think he realizes he can be part of a top four side (or better) right here where he belongs.
Worst case we're seeing the RS's part in the hegemony decline, and it's becoming Top 3+ 1 other (perm from us, Spurs, Citeh, Villa, and the RS .. for now at least).
Who knows what will happen after that.
Chelsea, while strong and very impressive earlier this season, have the signs of possible implosion in 2 or 3 years time (aging, poor leadership, player issues).
United have financial issues, besides Rooney they're no better than us, and SAF will retire or die at some point.
Arsenal play an admirable brand of football, but they don't seem cynical enough to dominate in the way United or even Chelsea have.
What all those teams have that we don't is consistent and winning domestic and Eropean football.
(see other threads on whether we do / do not want to play Europa League next season ..)
Many a disaster in this day and age could bring us to this terrible possibility - and one of these could be a change of ownership. The clash of the debt-ridden today at Owned Trafford should be enough warning for all craving a new owner - at any cost. Carpet-bagger 'investment' is the last thing we need.
I noticed yesterday that the unfortunate Victor's stretcher bearers were wearing yellow and green. Would they be allowed onto the pitch in a MUtd game? Perhaps not.
I believe that the first uniform colour Everton players ever wore was black (their various shirts having been dyed so). So should we go the way of the red sides, one day the the Gladwys may display a banner saying 'Love Everton- Hate Plumber' (or whoever), and everyone would be wearing black. Which might be quite appropriate.
Black and pink away, of course.
If we could get £30m then something to consider at least but £16m — no way.
two in the bush" regarding Rodwell.
Certainly he could be another Jeffers but why should we sell him at all, let alone for only 16 million, unless Everton really are that desperate for more funds?
Rooney was a very different case because he was "got at" and he'd already started playing for the full England squad.
In any case, there are 2 potentials here:
Rodwell's and Everton's and both are looking better than when Rooney opted for Man Utd.
I say, let Rodwell mature and improve even more before a transfer comes into the equation.
Transfers are risky - only about half of them work out, and about 25% are a total disaster. The best way to be pragmatic and save money is not to pay transfer fees. Better to spend the money on wages and keep Pienaar, Rodwell, Arteta etc.
Deloittes have done research on this. There is no correlation between spending on transfer fees and success on the pitch. There is a correlation between paying higher wages and success on the pitch. The time to sell star players is in their early 30's when they are about to start their decline. Like Arsenal selling Henry. Players at that age typically have wages that exceed their current value to the team (because it is hard to reduce their wages as their ability starts to decline). Take players like that off the wage bill and bring in a few youngsters/lower league players - hopefully one of them will grow into the replacement.
If we must sell (and I don't think we need to) the better sell players at the higher end of the age spectrum and use the money to keep the squad together.
We have players who could command substantial transfer fees and some I believe we have outgrown. My own view is that Howard a loyal servant but is simply not good enough and should be moved on. Long range shots, coming off his line, organising the defence, distribution and crosses, unfortunately he is not good enough.
For me, Jo Hart is crying out to be bought and would be available, I suspect, for ~ £8m - £10m. He could be our goalie for the next 15 years and I think for a net outlay of £5M or so would represent a bargain.
I have thought about Cahill, who's been poor this season and no doubt would get a good fee. However, I truly believe he is class and just his form is below par; he is invaluable and we should keep him.
I would also move on Senderos, Vaughan, Gosling, Hibbert and Yobo.
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1 Posted 21/03/2010 at 17:19:58
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Maybe the club will sell Rodwell or A N Other. If it happens to be Rodwell, then no matter what the spin may be, we ARE in fact selling the future with absolutely no guarantee of present success.
Of course I respect your view, but in my opinion, it is a counsel of despair rather than of pragmatism.