ToffeeWeb - Season 2009-10

The Mail Bag

The Run-In

Okay guys, just a very basic piece, based on current form... I've used http://www.premierleague.com/page/FormGuide... which (at the time of writing) had been updated to include Liverpool v Man Utd but not Man City v Fulham (so I have factored that in myself).

So basically I worked out their average points over the last six games and multiplied it by the games they have left.

On Current Form:

Tottenham 4th with 72 pts City 5th with 68 pts Villa 6th with 65 pts Everton 7th with 62 pts Liverpool 8th with 59 pts

It doesn't take into account the teams we all have to play, but it's one way of looking at it. How do you feel the Blues will do? Can we get above seventh?
Stuart Downey, Liverpool Posted 21/03/2010 at

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Timothy Sebastian
1 Posted 22/03/2010 at 03:26:02

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I think Everton will sneek into 7th place. The next week will tell us for sure. If Everton can turn over Man City at their place, and if Liverpool mess up their next game, then I think it's quite likely that we'll overtake them before the end of the season.

Dermot Ryan
2 Posted 22/03/2010 at 05:52:05

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"If we can turn over Man City at their place"...That's a big if.

I think our run-in is harder than it might first appear. Man City, Stoke, and Villa away will be really hard games. We have to beat Portsmouth, West Ham and Wolves. And have a real go at Fulham and at home and Blackburn away. (another big ask. Just ask Chelsea).

My heart wants more, but my head says 18 points from the remaining games would be great (and I wouldn't be surprised if we get less).

Iain Love
3 Posted 22/03/2010 at 08:12:02

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18 points is about right, where that leaves us is down to the other teams. 7th would be a great achievement 6 more points than our rivals with 8 games left . Mind you 7 would put us 5th.
7th spot and a place in Europe would only be better if the R/S where 8th.
If the league had started in Jan we would be 3rd.

Neil Steele
4 Posted 22/03/2010 at 11:55:42

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We are not going to get 7th, I wish people would just let it go and look to next season. We can't beat Birmingham with a 2 goal lead for crying out loud, there is absolutely zero to suggest we could put a run together anything like good enough to get us in contention again.

Shaun Sparke
5 Posted 22/03/2010 at 12:15:40

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Neil, you are so right. We did let a two goal lead slip away at Birmingham. However, we did give both Man Utd and Chelsea a goal headstart and still managed to beat them. So to suggest that there is zero evidence of putting a run together is totally inaccurate. There are still 24 points to play for, I hope that the team doesnt take a lead from your attitude, because quite frankly it is depressive.

Neil Steele
6 Posted 22/03/2010 at 13:38:39

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Really Shaun? OK, let me try again, we have won 3 league games away from home all season, not one of which was remotely convincing, and we still have to go away to City, Villa, Blackburn and Stoke - 4 of the toughest away grounds to get a result from in the country. There is of course Wolves too, but obviously they have nothing to play for and will roll over for us!! Winning all of our home games will take us nowhere near and I say again, there is zero to suggest we can turn our away form around after tossing away a 2 goal lead at Birmingham in pathetic fashion.

Roger Trenwith
7 Posted 22/03/2010 at 13:56:32

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BBC Premiership Predictor http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/predictor/default.stm

Admittedly we have to play out of our skins only dropping 2 points on the run in, but I've just come up with:

1st Arsenal 86 2nd Chelsea 85 (+55) 3rd Man U 85 (+54) 4th Man C 72 5th Spurs 67 (+30) 6th Villa 67 (+21) 7th Everton 67 (+15) 8th Liverpool 65

I would take that now!

John Burns
8 Posted 22/03/2010 at 14:30:01

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In the last ten Premier League seasons, the highest amount of points won for 5th place has been 66. For 7th place it has been 59 points.

So historically, anything between 59 and 66 points should gain Europa entry. This will mean winning at least 5 of the remainding 8 games to take our tally to 60 points.

However, this season I think we will need at least 63 points, which means winning six of the remaining games.

Shaun Sparke
9 Posted 22/03/2010 at 16:00:59

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Ah thats a bit better Neil, you have now added the caveat of "away form" which you never mentioned before. Well let me remind you of the 3-3 at Chelsea and being less than 2 minutes away from winning at Arsenal. There is a little bit more evidence for you, so your zero really isnt zero after all is it?

You may well be right in your prediction, but although it is your opinion and are entitleled to it. Fans like you depress the hell out of me. I watched the game on Saturday and was as frustrated as everybody else, but that wasn't down to the long ball game it was down to Bolton being super organised by closing down the threat on the left. We lact a little bit of creativity but did not revert to the constant hoof ball that you alluded to in an earlier post.

Neil Steele
10 Posted 22/03/2010 at 18:07:33

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Shaun, Bolton could have been out of sight before we offered anything at all, that is a simple fact. We were garbage to my mind but then, again, I am judging us based on a standard I believe we are at given the players we have. If you are judging us on the merits of a mid-table fodder team then, yes...I guess that is a good result and fine performance.
We won't finish 7th, end of story. If we do I will come on here and you can call me what you like, it won't happen though so i'll be fine on that score.
If people want to kid themselves on and predict results with Blue-tinted specs on then they are free to do so. I'll stay in the real world! If that makes me negative then so be it.

Kunal Desai
11 Posted 22/03/2010 at 21:10:02

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I believe we'll finish on no more than 60 points. As things stand right now:

Spurs will get 5 more points from there remaining 8 games.
Man city will get 7 points from there remaining 9 games.
Shite will get 9 more points from there 7 games.
Villa will get 10 points from there 9 remaining games.

We're gonna fall short this season but after the start we made we were never going to finish above these. Still our form in recent months bodes well, lets hope we can take this into next season.

Dave Roberts
12 Posted 23/03/2010 at 15:15:09

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Can we get a few things straight about the Bolton game?

Firstly, after 12 minutes when Everton could and should have already been one up, the game plan had to change when we lost Victor. Moyes couldn't risk Saha at that stage after his injury so he brought on Billy which meant there was only Yak available in the middle up front when before he went off it was Victor was making the formation virtually 4-4-2. The team had to adapt to a major change in game plan and personnel which is not easy so early in a game.

Bolton had one good chance which Davies should have taken but then so did we which Victor should have taken, otherwise the game was pretty even with Bolton doing what they do best and stopping us from playing. They can do that to most teams....ask FSW and Wenger!

We were already beginning to get a grip on the game before their centre-back was sent off and we were playing some decent stuff and starting to get around the back of them, mainly as a result of Mikky taking control of the midfield. That is why he got MOTM and not only for his goal (as good as it was) We were well on top for the whole of the second half and moves were breaking down mainly because Pienaar was having a bad day by his standards and a lot of his passes into and around the box were often too ambitious and were going astray.

At no point should Bolton have been 'out of sight' and 1-1 would have been a fair scoreline at half time.In the event it was 0-0.

At the end of the game 2-0 was a fair and deserved result against one of the most dogged, fittest and biggest sides in the Prem.

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