Everton to Finish 4th Shock (Reprise)

Its only a dream. Surely we can finish top in a dream!

Funny enough I had an Everton based dream the other night.

I was wondering in my dream why I never went to the match, and why my lad who is 19 has never been to Goodison. I used to go in the 60's and seventies and loved it, it was the highlight of the week, the centre of my life.

I resolved to right this wrong by immediately booking tickets for the opening few matches of the season. I was so happy and yet confused as to why I had let slip this crucial part of my life.

When I woke up I realised I've lived in OZ since 1982!

Jay exercised a little caution in his article Alun, you may want to avoid disappointment by doing the same.

I`m not knocking your optimism, we`re footy fans and even the most cynical will be secretly harbouring dreams of a big season.
The trouble is, these dreams can be ripped apart before you can say Joleon Lescott.
I can't... won't allow myself to believe this transfer window will close without at least one big spanner being thrown into the works. I dread waking up to be told Baines or Fellaini had been sold, or that we couldn't secure Pienaar`s services.

I hate the fact that the transfer window doesn't close on the eve of the big kick off (why the fuck is that?) I believe players unsettled by speculation, have been a contributory factor towards our poor starts.

I like articles like this, I don't think I could handle only the negative and if you are mad, then I am too (my money`s down as well) BUT at this moment in time, we don't know who will be playing for who.
If we can hold on to all our players, If we can just have everyone fit, If we can sign... if... if... if.

Not disagreeing with you Alun, but an awful lot has to go right for us before a ball is even kicked.

Nice try... but even with Spurs' and Arsenal's problems, with the Shite likely to perform better than last year, I don't see us finishing above those this season, let alone the other three. Seventh for me again.

For me Alun we have a very strong starting eleven. The bench isn't what I would like it to be but it isn't that bad either. I think the strong start has been made a little more possible by bringing in Naismith so early. He's here for the start of pre season and will also get a good chance in the pre season games. He will also bring fresh impetus.

I think that free transfers could be the making of us this season and could take some of the pressure off having to rely on the youngsters. However, unfortunately we can't afford the extra wages right now until we know for sure that we have offloaded players. If I had my way we would scrap up enough money to placate the banks by selling Yobo, big Vic and Tim. We could then use their wages to sign a couple of players on frees.

Im beginning to relaise that we have just as many delusional fans as the kopites, except that they talk about the final piece in the jigsaw and winning the league.
When will people realise that we are an average mid table team and thats that.

I like your optimism Alun and your dream. I can remember in 1984 discussing Everton prospects for the coming season with my mates and all the realists agreeing that there was no way on Earth we could finish above fourth. One of the lads (not me) confessed that he'd put £5 on Everton to win the league at odds of 20/1 - we all shook our heads and looked at him with pity. I learned a lesson that day - it's okay to dream every now and again and it's better to live in hope than in a pall of misery.

Having said that, I'm convinced that without serious investment or a takeover Everton will never win the League again - we've not the strength in depth nor the class of player that only big money can buy you - but another shot at fourth is not beyond us - all we have to do is turn half of those 11 draws from last season into victories and fourth is for the taking; perhaps even in my wildest dream, third

By the way, Ignore the miserable twats who'll tell you you're deluded and you're the reason why Everton are shit (we're too unambitious us optimists apparently). Experience has learned me that they will be the first to celebrate and tell you that they 'knew we were great all along' if your dream comes true. Keep your dreams, keep your optimism - it's what enjoying life is all about - stay away from miserable bastards - the thing about miserable bastards is they like company and want to bring you down to their level; don't go there - they have little joy in life beyond loudly celebrating their misery with like minded people and so they'll try to convince you not to dream - optimism unsettles them.

"Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds wake in the day to find that all was vanity; but the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they may act their dream with open eyes, and make it possible."

How exactly do we have a very strong starting XI, when we have no wide players whatsoever?

Oh I forgot, a lot of you are so keen to see Naismith (obviously never having seen him before) – you're doing a fine impression of Moyes – by crow-barring him into a wide position...

No wide players, effectively one striker and no creativity in midfield... yeah, a cracking starting eleven.

You can almost set your watch by the delusional pre-season franzy that appears on here.

We are quite some distance from having a 'very strong starting eleven'...

I would believe it could be possible (just) if we brought in Pienaar as well as a top winger a la Hoilett, a quality right back and a back up left back such as Pranjic who can also play left mid. Maybe a Rodallega on top of that too to give us a bit more depth up top.
Until then I think 6th is about the best we can hope for.

Only another 5 players then James?

Alun - I share many of your sentiments, and have also backed us to get top 4 and to win the League w/o Top 6 from last year.

Like you say, not much point bringing the Mancs into the debate.

Chelsea - some great strengths but I think they could splutter in the league. I dont think Di Matteo's going to get the full backing he needs, and I also dont think he's only good enough when it comes down to it. They essentially won the Champions League by winning 3 "Cup Finals" - well done to them but I think they'll struggle (within reason) in the PL next season - their get out of jail card long term probably being by winning the CL they are still in it next season and can therefore attract real quality moving forward if Roman does back his man.

LFC - who knows. They had a shocker last season, glossed over for the history books by winning the League Cup, getting to FA Cup Final and humiliating us, but a shocker nonetheless. I think Rodgers will pull them back together as a team and can see them ending up anywhere between 4th and 8th.

Arsenal - on paper without RVP and considering their persistent upheavals I honestly think we should aiming to match them next season. They are starting to lose their best players frequently now and even Wenger wont be able to make ends meet soon. If the dont make CL I think this year could be his last at the club.

Spurs - I think AVB will probably do a good job at Spurs if they give him time and support but next season could be pretty rocky - if you look back over Redknapps career he usually leaves carnage behind him and I dont think Spurs will be any different next season.

Newcastle - summed up perfectly Alun!

Any body else? Not that I can see....

Us? Stronger than last year plus IF we can get Pienaar and heaven forbid a right winger, and Naismith can click, I honestly think we'll have one of the best starting 11's in the league. Put the stability we've got compared to the rest, plus a "famous team spirit", and that from the Swansea away game onwards David Moyes genuinely (LFC games aside) seemed to have changed his ways then I honestly think Top 4 is there for the taking. We need to keep Fellaini and Baines though, and as Dave Wilson so rightly points out why doesnt the transfer window close when the season starts.....?!

So - I dont think we're a shoe in, or nailed on, but I do believe we are in mini-league of 6 teams for the final 2 Ch's League spots - and given the problems they could all experience next seasons odds of 16/1+ of us finishing in the top two are generous if we can keep the team together, get our wings sorted (i.e. Pienaar and A N Other) and for once start a bloody season as well as we finish one.

COYB!

On this logic I really can't see why you stop at top 4, surely ignoring reality means we win the league playing like Everton 1970.

Todays generation are so unambitious.

Exactly, Jamie!

I agree with the general consensus that outside of the two Manchester clubs there's a mixture of decline and transition among the usual challengers (Arsenal, Chelsea, Spurs & Liverpool). Add to this the number of recent managerial switches of the mid-table teams (Villa, QPR, Sunderland, Swansea Norwich, West Brom, Fulham) and what it gives is a potentially very open and unpredictable league from the very bottom up to third. Newcastle, Stoke and Everton are the three clubs who will be looking ahead of them wondering if the breakthrough can be made. I think unless Newcastle invest in some depth then Europe may hinder them. That leaves Stoke and Everton. That's the optimism out of the way. Unfortunately I just can't see Moyes getting us off to a good start (United at home and Villa away doesn't bode well). I also can't see us not selling one of Baines/Fellaini. I think Moyes needs to give Coleman a chance at right back which could solve our one-sided attack problem. Osman struggles out there but if he was allowed to cut in as Pienaar does to allow Coleman bomb down that wing then it would add another dimension. We also need some real pressure applied to Howard who I think costs us too many points a season. My main point is I think it's possible to finish fourth with a few bold moves and a bit of luck but it's more likely that we'll be cursing Moyes/Injuries/Kenwright come December and by then it'll be too late.

Just look at the table to the top right of these comments - 4th already. We just have to defend doggedly till next May .

"To sleep--perchance to dream, Aye there's the rub" - Dreaming about glory is great, but you have to then wake up.

We will get nowhere near 4th , That will be the usual Mancs, Chavs and Arsenal.

Our battle is with The Shite, Newcastle, Spuds and possibly Villa for the remaining Wafer Cup places.

As Andy says, we are average team with a slightly above average manager, nothing more. We biased and fickle fans may try and delude ourselves, but our league placing for the last 6 or so years is where we deserve to be placed on performances.

Hopefully we can start well and see what happens, who knows we may have another year were the papers keep on saying our bubble will burst and it doesn't, here's hoping

No harm in dreaming but I think 4 is a stretch too far for us. Simply put the odds are heavily against us. Looking at it logically, both the manc teams and chelski will finish above us, that then leaves just one CL place to fight for between us, spurs, barcodes and Arsenal (assuming no barcode like surprise this season from another team). The chances of us finshing not just above one but all three of these teams is immense. Taking them one by one;

Newcastle will have 2nd season syndrome but I beleieve they will kick on. With the likes of Ba, Cisse, Cabaye, Ben Arfa etc in the side (not to mention new additions), they easily have the fire power to be in the top 6 unless they have a melt down. Their main problem will be keeping hold of their top players in the transfer window.

Spurs are a bit of a conundrum, who knows what will happen under AVB. Could be great for them or it could go tits up. If he can get the side to gel (big if) they will be up there again. They still have a great squad with the likes of Adebayor, VdV, Bale, Lennon, and Modric has not left yet.

Arsenal seem to be on the way down. RvP looks to be gone, following Nasri, Fabregas, Clichy etc. However, they still have a very good squad and have brought in Giroud and Podolski, with likely more to follow. I honestly cannot remember the last time we finished about Arsenal in the league, I think you'd have to go back around 20 years! So on history alone, that's going to be a tall order.

I think we can definitely finish above 1, maybe 2, of the above if we have a really strong season, but to finish above all three is going to take one hell of an an effort and a large chunk of luck. One thing is for sure, to have any chance of doing this we CANNOT start the season like we have the last 4-5!

Here's hoping though. Season is a marathon so lets take it game by game - we've got 2 tough games to KO with as it is. I'll take 2 points from them now to be honest, so as to remain unbeated when we then go into a string of 10 games that are all winnable, where we'll hopfully start havesting the 3 pointers. If we can get regular wins from the 10-12 games after Villa away, we'll be up there come November (a massive change from the past few years!).

God July is dull!

Everybody get a Blue Fther Christmas suit in August ala Doddy's suggestion for kidding them it's actually December and off we go to a flyer...catch us if you can...job done.

we will not finish 4th dont waste your money.

Alun

I am only replying as you are the only other Alun I have met on here. Funnily enough I penned a similar article 2 years ago, let's hope yours is more close to reality than mine was. I presume you might be Welsh?

Well, after weighing up both your dreams, I think there's a much greater chance of you finding lime jelly remnants lodged in your japs eye.

We are not stronger than last year, we are currently weaker. We ended the season with a decent squad including Pienaar, Stracq, McFadden and Drenthe. They have all left, although hopefully Pienaar will be back. We have brought in a free transfer from Scotland, and Yobo is back, although in reality, probably not for long. So we are down in numbers on what was a small squad last year. If we bring anyone in it will almost certainly be funded by player sales.

In the meantime, all the teams who finished above us will outspend us again, Liverpool also. We will do well to match last season's position. We certainly won't be anywhere near the top 4.

Guys!!!! have you gone mental?!!!! seriously...I know every fan is subjective in support of their own club, but this is bizarre. We had a good second half of the season, but we wont replicate that over the whole season before it is not possible, especially with our squad.

But anyway, with regards to disregarding other teams...

Chelski....(Cech has looked dodgy), Right back (Ivanovic atm, dependable generally but slow..they will replace), CB - Terry (Looked great in Euros..but slowing), Luiz (got better and better, despite initial mistakes), Ashley Cole (Best left back in the world). In midfield, Chelsea have TOO many options. Apart from the dependable German they've brought, they also have Essien, who will improve with match time, and can match anyone on his day. Mikel, who was superb in the Champions League run, Lamps who has fantastic when he reverted to a withdrawn role...and Ramires, who is an awesome player. They have the likes of Mata (one of the best players of last season imo), and now Hazard who was superb in France..and although they have an issue up top, they will buy a striker, and still have the Golden boot winner of the Euros, Sturridge and Lakuku. There is no way, we are going to finish above them. In pretty much every area we are outmatched, and they will spend again this summer. Their problem was the system implemented by AVB last season.

Arsenal: Don't write them off because of RVP. He was exceptional last season, but someone gave him the ball didn't they? If he leaves, they will bring in another talented striker. On top of that, they have brought in Podolski, whose game is perfect for the Prem, and who scored fantastically well for a relegated team in Germany. They've also purchased Giround, who scored 20 plus goals in France. On top of that, they have an incredible amount of attacking players. Walcott is deadly on form, and outscores pretty much every midfielder in goals and assists. They have Gervinho, who looks very talented, a young Oxlade who will improve next season, the returning Arshavin (fantastic in Euros and in Russia), and Miyachi, who will probaly go out on loan again (maybe to us). Centre mid has been an issue for a while, but Wilshere looks set to return, and he has true world class potential. Rosicky is also rejuvenated, Ramsey looked poor...but maybe needs more time after injury, and Song offers a great attacking threat, although he is helpless in defence. Luckily for them, they robbed Arteta off us, who covers for Song, and who we all know is a fantastic player. Arsenal have issues at the back, but they are in terms of squad, not starting 11. Sagna, Vermalean, Koschelny, Gibbs and the Polish goalie with a difficult name I can't spell off the top of my head, are a great defensive unit. Every season (for the past 3/4) Arsenal are supposedly not going to finish in the top four...and every season they do.

Spurs are weaker than both Chelsea and Arsenal. They have the best midfield though, and in football, midfields win matches. But it will be incredibly difficult to finish above them. The reason for our resurgence last season, was largely the result of Pienarr's transfer, a bench player for them. They've added Siguardsson, who will be the new Dempsey/Cahill of this division. Modric, Bale(although a bit one dimensional) and Van der Vaart could play for most teams in the world, and Parker is a solid dm. We simply catch match them in midfield. Defensively, id say we are better, although they have good full backs and decent cbs...although they clearly need to bring people in. They also need, and will buy, a couple of strikers. We could potentially finish above them, if they let Van der Vaart go and Modric, and spend the money erroneously on unproven Brazilian mids they are being linked with, and on ineffectual strikers. We have to hope AVB repeats the tactical errors of his Chelsea days.

Newcastle are not one season wonders. Cisse is a proven goal-scorer, and avoiding injury, will be in the top 5 goal scorers at the end of the season. Cabaye and Tiote could play for any team in this league, and Ben Arfa has the talent to be a superstar. On top of that they have Ba, and a great defensive unit, and a goalie in Tim Krul who will surely be at one of the top clubs in a few seasons. Newcastle have weaknesses, and need to replace the outgoing Danny Simpson, probaly with Debuchy if Chelsea don't pip them to him, but they have some impressive talent.

Our team..Solid at the back, with a good goalie. Fellaini could play for any team in the league...but the rest of the midfield couldn’t. We have only one creative player in Osman, and need to bring in Pienarr and another, but will struggle to do so without funds. We lack pace in the midfield, and depth in attack, although Jelavic looks made for the Premierleague. Naismith is talented, but will take a while to adapt, and his knees are troubling. In Baines, Heitinga, Fellaini, and if he continues to score, Jelavic, we have champions league players, but the rest are not. Some are good, some are lower prem/Championship players and our young stars, Rodwell and Barkley, are a tad overrated. (Although in a couple of seasons Barkley will hopefully kick on).
If we finish above any of the teams mentioned, it will be incredible. I expect Liverpool will be better next season, although I think we can match the other teams around us. I would predict a 7th/8th placed finish (Id take seventh and another cup run...hopefully with a more successful conclusion).

Of course 4th is a possibility, no matter how we do in a season we always seem to finish in striking distance and have that same old if only feeling. Last season was terrible up to about February, even the slightest improvement would see us getting closer to the top teams. No one oculd have predicted chelsea or Liverpool's slide last season, who is to say that it wont be arsenal or united this year. 2004-2005 the top teams were better and we were far worse, no one could see it coming, we didn't have a big squad, and our previous league finish was terrible, yet we did it. no reason why we can't again.

It all depends on which Moyes starts the season: the defensive, dour, don't concede, try to nick one Moyes; or the Moyes that was in charge at the end of last season. My money would be on the first one, because it's just in his nature, the 'get to 40pts and take it from there'.

I would just like to remind everyone that our results from January last year would have placed us third.

I know the season doesn't start in January but I would also point out we lost a number of key players just before the start of last season (Arteta, Yak and Beckford) taking away our firepower and creating a poor atmosphere in the dressing room.

Correspondingly Spurs' form over the same period would have seen them 6th or 7th and there is no certainty they will have Aebayor this season.

My only real concern is the RS who I doubt will have as bad a season again.

Of course my optimism relies on Moyesy delivering on his "hope to get a few more players in" including Pienaar and hopefully Donovan (or equivalent) from November.

I can definitely see where the OP is coming from, and think it's a little harsh to say it's totally unrealistic.

I would be surprised if we got 4th, but not shocked. As has been mentioned, if Pienaar can be secured, along with either Pranjic and Rodallega or a couple of equivalent signings then the crux of the squad is not too shabby at all.

If all teams play to their potential we won't finish 4th but with a bit of luck and the potential for one or more of the other challengers to implode you just never know.

Jim (871) - What's wrong with some EFC-friendly pre-season speculation? And couldn't see where any were more "bizarre" than yours for speculation. Let's see:

1. "We had a good second half of the season, but we wont replicate that over the whole season before it is not possible, especially with our squad". So the same squad, with a couple additions, that finished so strongly last season won't keep playing well this? Not following your logic there. Unless it's the usual "We start crap" every year.

2. Chelsea finished 6th for good reason. The players didn't play for AVB. Not the first manager they got fired. Dimatteo was in a nothing to lose/win situation. Will the team "leaders" play for him over 38 games? We'll see. Plus, "Terry (Looked great in Euros. .". You watched some Terry I didn't. The only times he looked "great" was when covering up mistakes of his own making. I'd also venture that many defenders could look great with 4-5 teammates right in front of them for 90 minutes every game. The rest on Chelsea is just your opinion similar to those here thinking next season will see us moving up the Table. You calling Chelsea a good team? I agree. But no lock for Top 3. They finished 6th last year.

3. "Arsenal: Don't write them off because of RVP". If he's gone before the season, I am writing them off as Top 3 contenders. Even if he stays with a new contract, his form over his career is out due to injury. His performance last season was so tranparent a "contract year" one that we might as well delete the word cynicism from the dictionary. A good team? Yes. But nothing more, especially if RVP is gone. The rest is as speculative as anyone elses - "whose game is perfect for the Prem". Remains to be seen. "scored fantastically well for a relegated team in Germany". The Budesliga's Yak!! "an incredible amount of attacking players". Didn't RVP also lead them in assists? Or close? "deadly on form". And if he's not? "looks very talented", "will improve next season", "he has true world class potential", is also rejuvenated", "maybe needs more time after injury", "offers a great attacking threat, although he is helpless in defence". Lot of ifs in there. "They robbed Arteta off us". They did no such thing. And there fortunes took an upswing when they tightened up their defense. Whatever would Miki have to do with that? "Are a great defensive unit". Certainly were the second half of last season. Just like us in the attack during the same time period. "Every season (for the past 3/4) Arsenal are supposedly not going to finish in the top four". According to some pre-season speculation.

4. "Spurs are weaker than both Chelsea and Arsenal. They have the best midfield though, and in football, midfields win matches. But it will be incredibly difficult to finish above them". Huh? Bizarre. Is this because AVB is there? They finished one spot behind one and 2 spots above the other. You conclude, which I agree with, that we can finish above them. And last season they finished just behind Arsenal and 2 spots above Chelsea. Hmmmmmm.

5. "Newcastle are not one season wonders". Have to repeat last season's performance before we can come to that conclusion, right?

6. "I expect Liverpool will be better next season". You're not the only one and I don't get it. This IS bizarre. We can debate what caused Chelsea to finish 6th, but the redshirts finished 8th on merit. Where's the improvement? Rodgers? In fairness, he built Swansea to his vision and took them from the Championship to mid-table EPL. Good for him but he didn't accomplish that overnight. He'll have LFC playing his style 6 weeks from now with the same bunch finished a well-earned 8th position last season?

7. Us - "In Baines, Heitinga, Fellaini, and if he continues to score, Jelavic, we have champions league players, but the rest are not". I like the way you put that. Makes us the same as every good team. I like it. The depth problem? Have to agree again, this time unfortunately. Let's see what the next 6 weeks brings us transfer-wise.

I have to call the Manc teams 1 and 2 until I see different. But 3-6 are open. We do well in the transfer window (Please God, just this once. How often do I ask a favor of you for Christ's sake?) why not us in the Top 4?

56 points last season. Spurs came in 4th at 69. So 13 points missing.

QPR at home = 3. Bolton at home = 3. And other abysmal performances at home, accounted for a lot of the missing points. If we can't carry on from where we were against Newcastle we will be happy with mid-table. But if we can pick it up from there, who knows? This is the best squad we've had since the 80's.

I'm all for optimism but if you want to know why we will struggle to keep up with the likes of Spurs and Arsenal then just look at this summers spending.

Spurs have spent £20M on Sigurdsson and Vertonghen, two quality young signings (and will spend a lot more if Modric does leave).

Arsenal have already spent £20M on Podolski and Giroud, two talented international goal scorers (and will spend a lot more if RVP leaves).

We have spent nothing, on a promising if injury-prone Scot who may or not be legally allowed to play for us... (And if Baines or Fellaini leaves, we will probably have less than half their transfer fees to spend.)

Keith, every team in the prem could point to games they lost, but should have picked up 3 pts from.

James, why do you assume we will play like the second half of the season? Firstly, we never do. That's part of my logic. Second, our most crucial player imo was Pienarr, and whilst some may argue about whether Fellaini or Jelavic were more impressive, there is no doubt that we could not have achieved what we achieved without Pienarr from Jan onwards. And...at the moment, we are starting the season without Pienarr. Thirdly, we had a bigger squad. Even the lesser players, who contributed occasionally (i.e Denis/Drenthe) are not with us. Fourth- Form is not consistent. Teams often have form alterations across the season; Us, Spurs, Fulham, Wigan, Liverpool, Stoke among others offered different examples of form differences over the first and second half of the seasons. We wont play as well in both parts of the season, because we are not good enough, our squad is not deep enough and will suffer from form alterations, as everyone did. And James...we came fifth in the second half of the season table, achieving 32 points. Even matching our points per game at the start of the season, would only have given us 64. (Last season Spurs finished in fourth with 69). So tell me why we will get fourth again? hope my logic is not to bizzare for you to follow....

With respect to Chelski, anyone could see their position was a false one. You don't disagree do you? they won the champions league, they did come sixth...but played second string teams in alot of their matches in the final weeks of the season. And it's not my opinion; Chelsea have top players. And since then, they've add two significant additions, and will add more. Their form under Di Matteo was fantastic, even including their second string team results. They failed with AVB fundamentally because of his tactics. He tried to fit his players into a system they were not suited to...the dressing room may have turned, but his tactics started it. And I hate Terry...I wanted Rio in the team instead of him...but he was generally superb in the Euros, especially against Italy. I'm surprised you didn’t think he performed well. Name me a better player against Italy? I think in many people's opinions, only Gerrard challenged him for our player of the tournament.

And what did Mikel have to do with Arsenal tightening their defence James?! Really? did you watch Arsenal last year?! even if you had watched a handful of games (although I do have a vested interest, as my best friend supports them, and they are my second favourite team) the neutral would have seen what Arteta does; he covers for Song. When Song runs forward, Arsenal are exposed, and it's has been a fundamental problem within their team for several seasons. When Arteta came in, he covered for Song. It's not in debate...watch the games. Arsenal's defensive record was massively improved in games with Arteta in the team. Their win record with Arteta W20 D3 L6 and without him: W1 D4 L4. Their only win coming against West Brom..in which they exposed defensively time and time again.
Re. their players I mentioned...I didn't need to be positive about Ramsey, as he will be a bench player. Walcott, over the course of the season, provides goals and assist; he may occasionally look like he can't pass the ball five yards, or cross if his life depended on it, but he will score more than any midfielder, and Jelavic aside probaly, any player we have. We can't compete with the likes of Walcott, Arshavin, Gervinho, Arteta etc etc. We have Fellaini who can, and a few others, but not as many as the teams we need to finish above. Also, what utter shit about RVP...do you watch football? RVP firstly has always played well between injuries, and has performed consistently well over the last 18, not 12 months. That's why he just missed out on beating Shearer's incredible record for league goals in a calender year. Do you actually believe he did that because of his contract?!

Re. Newcastle: I posit they are not one season wonders because of their squad. But irrespective of that, on pure stats, why should we finish above them? Even in the period everyone is keen to highlight (i.e the second half of the season) Newcastle took more points than us, despite having chunks of the back four out.

I believe Spurs are worse than Chelski and Arsenal...because they consistently finish below them. It is a supposition though, I agree. As I’ve already said, Chelski’s position this season was false. Spurs have also lost significant squad and first team players since their top form last season. Pav has left, King has left, Adebayor has left. Their only striker is Defoe...they have wantaway players...we could pip them if everything went our way, but I don’t think we will because they are still better than us.
And re.Liverpool...although I hope he doesnt, I think Rodgers will improve them as Dalglish was a joke. I also fear they will spend (apparently one big transfer is coming in this week). And as much as I hate to say it...they were unlucky last season. Their strikers did not finish well enough, they have wasted so so much money (what any of us would give for a 10th of that for Everton!), but I don’t think they are an eighth place team.

All this is why I don’t think we will finish fourth. Discounting Manchester United and City from the picture, and those from 9th downwards (although Fulham replicated our second half of the season form and with the additional European games), we will have to finish above all but one of Chelsea, Spurs, Arsenal, Newcastle and Liverpool. I don’t think it is beyond us to finish above one or two of them, but to finish above four of them is asking far too much. They have bigger and better squads, more transfer capacity and more winning experience. Our midfield is not the midfield of three or four seasons ago...truly, of our regularly midfield unit, only Fellaini is good enough. Our midfielders are Fellaini...Osman, Neville?, Gueye, Gibson Coleman, Rodwell...Spurs have Modric, Van Der Vaart, Bale, Sigurdsson, Parker among others..Arsenal have Arteta, Walcott, Wilshere, Rosicky, Gervinho and the Ox..Newcastle have Ben Arfa, Cabaye, Tiote, Chelsea have Mata, Hazard, Lampard, Essien, Meirelles, Mikel etc. I don’t think we can do it, and truly I don’t think we will get close. And I’ve yet to see someone give a good reason why we will finish fourth, and you are very much included in that James.
It’s not pessimism, it’s realism. And next season, when we do struggle, and everyone is calling for Moyes’ head, the unrealistic pre-season expectations will be partly to blame. It’s not our fault of course, it’s because we don’t have the money to compete with the others, and fall behind every season. To compete, we'd need to bring in Pienarr, a top right winger, a top attacking mid, another talented striker, another right back, as well as a couple of squad players, and hope they all turned out great and gelled. We'd need to spend 50million plus and get it perfect, and hope other teams falter. But it wont happen.