David Moyes said after the first couple of games to judge the team after ten games.
So imagine come 5pm on November 3rd after 10 games in the league, we have 21, 23 or even 25 points. We get at least 2 wins and two draws to get 21 points. Not totally out of the question given our form against 3 out of the 4 teams currently in the bottom half of the table.
We would have played only 4 games at home (including Man Utd, Newcastle and Liverpool, who from the start of the season be expecting to be challenging near the top half of the league) and 6 away... where there are no easy games for any team.
What would be the expectation then be, considering our usual good form during the second half of the season?
A European place would be the least that we should be hoping for. Could we even dream of a Champions League place? — we would need at least two points a game on average, could that be possible?
Can we keep injury free or at least no long term injuries to our main inform players?
Can some funds be made available to Moyes in January? (We still can have 3 loan signings.)
We can all dream, but hopefully the dream does not end until May or turn into a nightmare.
Reader Comments (51)
Note: the following content is not moderated or vetted by the site owners at the time of submission. Comments are the responsibility of the poster. Disclaimer
2 Posted 01/10/2012 at 19:58:20
3 Posted 01/10/2012 at 19:49:46
"Penniless, yet we own the world." (St Paul)
4 Posted 01/10/2012 at 20:04:04
5 Posted 01/10/2012 at 20:01:11
6 Posted 01/10/2012 at 20:11:18
Early days though but this current team should fear no one – especially at the end of the month. We do need better cover for Gibson and hopefully that will be addressed in January.
We are a better side than in the 2nd half of last season and that was top 4 form so why not be optimistic and ambitious. I have started my Euro stash ready for 2013!!!
I must stick up for old misery arse himself Tony Marsh (Phil #338); he has been positively chirpy this season or maybe overmedicated but credit where it is due, he has not been his usual self – must have something to do with the quality of football on show. I can't believe I have stuck up for him... I need a lie down.
7 Posted 01/10/2012 at 20:41:05
Navel-gazing after 5, 10, 15...whatever...games is simply idle speculation that even Nostradamus would be proud of.
8 Posted 01/10/2012 at 20:43:35
That's why we need to wait until 10 or 11 games until we can start thinking this side will achieve anything. We're just doing what we should be doing and beating the sides that are usually below us. That'll get us top 6, which is great but top 4 will only be possible if we can pick up points against the usual top 4 sides and the RS aided by the ref.
9 Posted 01/10/2012 at 20:47:01
10 Posted 01/10/2012 at 20:52:57
11 Posted 01/10/2012 at 20:44:08
I don't know where this '10 game' yard stick has come from, I'm sure it's the first season I've heard it used so much, if at all, by so many managers / pundits / fans etc.
So if we are top of he league after 10 games is our judgement going to be we're going to win the league? It should be shouldn't it....? If there's any point making a judgement after 10 games?
But we won't, instead we'd say 'great start but there's an awful long way to go yet, we've not even played everyone yet etc etc'.
I'm not saying don't judge us as we go, I'm just not sure where this mystical 10 game watershed has come from. Ultimately we only get judged truly at the end, anything else doesn't have any real value does it?
12 Posted 01/10/2012 at 20:50:19
13 Posted 01/10/2012 at 21:04:45
It was Moyes who said the ten game thing in an interview after the Man U game, and it referred to whether we've had a good start or not.
14 Posted 01/10/2012 at 21:08:33
15 Posted 01/10/2012 at 20:59:12
Your point, but shed in a different light, is exactly why I am optimistic. We have had so many problems breaking down teams that finished lower than us. How many home points we have dropped over the last two seasons? Stupid.
So far, we have seemed to sort out that problem, and we are also scoring lots of goals. It's a really good sign.
Lyndon also has the good point, where were doing a lot of assumptions. There's of course no assumption we will play as well as we have done to the Chelseas and Man Cities etc; we may lose against them and go back to square one.
Keeping our players fit is also key, but what I have seen is quite encouraging. Anichebe has performed well when Jelavic is injured (I know its only 2 games, but he has done well) and Neville has done alright when Gibson has been injured. We have still won games when they have played. I wouldnt mind Odjidja in at Janurary as cover, and hopefully some more cover in January will come.
I'm worried when Fellaini is injured though. So much of our play is based on him, and if he gets injured, I'm not sure what we would do. Hopefully Naismith and Jelavic can replicate their previous good partnership. I would have said the same with Baines, but to me, Oviedo seems decent cover and will only get better.
I know I'm getting really optimistic now, but I'm a young fan, and this is probably the best ever time I've seen them play, and I wouldnt mind a nice 4th place at the end of the season. I think it is a possibility.
16 Posted 01/10/2012 at 21:10:57
17 Posted 01/10/2012 at 21:17:56
We are unable to string two half's of a season together, I – and many others who understand that the league is a marathon and not a sprint –will judge him at the end of the season and not before.
Let's see how he sets the team out against the big 5 cos, let's face it, Man Utd was the opening game and we had to have a go.
I pray that he keeps this attacking football philosophy because in the past we have been too predictable and easily nullified.
The first test will be against the kopites and trust me, they will whinge, dive, cheat and kick their way through the derby.
18 Posted 01/10/2012 at 21:37:45
It's also possible to lose the first 10 games of the season and be clear bottom with zero points, but still win the league at the end of 38 games.
So it's really pointless.
19 Posted 01/10/2012 at 21:32:39
20 Posted 01/10/2012 at 21:34:26
Moyes was asked the question... have Everton got off to a good start? He answered by saying that he'd be able to tell whether or not we had after about ten games... that was it, he didn't say anything else, all of a sudden, that's now being used as a marker (for some anyway) of whether we'll win the league or not.
21 Posted 01/10/2012 at 21:47:27
22 Posted 01/10/2012 at 22:05:48
23 Posted 01/10/2012 at 22:04:38
24 Posted 01/10/2012 at 22:31:14
So far, comparing to corresponding matches last season to this season, we are exactly the same!! (If you replace Wolves with Southampton.) We've gained the same amount of points and are only +1 in the goal difference department (from memory, I may be wrong). So on current observations, we are doing ok.
Against the 3 games coming up we got only 2 points from last year, so maybe a chance to improve in the coming weeks.
So, all-in-all, we're doing OK. But the main thing we have now is momentum and the fact we are looking good and playing attacking footy. Let's hope we can find an extra 10 points over the season to be pushing realistically for Europe. COYB!
25 Posted 01/10/2012 at 22:43:50
.
26 Posted 01/10/2012 at 23:23:12
Championship winning sides always have that in their locker, that and a refusal to give in until the fat lady clears her throat, as witnessed by the amount of points Man Utd and the RS in their pomp won in the 93rd minute.
It may seem a bit weird calling for a bit of the anti-football that we have 'enjoyed' for the majority of Moyes's time here, but one of the things that comes with expansive football, is gaps all over the field, that the Chelseas & Cittehs of the world will exploit.
27 Posted 01/10/2012 at 23:42:36
28 Posted 02/10/2012 at 06:01:18
I believe we have the chance of a good Cup run and we have the strength to possibly win it this year (and do less well in the EPL as a result?)
What it will all come down to is keeping our top players. We may have some transfer activity in January but my guess is that we're maxed out now and it can only be loans and bargains. The critical thing is keeping Baines and Fellaini as they are our talismen or, if we have to sell Fellaini, that we produce a magic replacement out of the hat and use the balance to pay off debt. The guy is magnificent and irreplaceable for me and I really hope he stays.
We have a good team now, a great attitude and fantastic positivity but a few injuries could see that shatter. We mustn't take relative success for granted this year as there are a lot of good teams and a lot of very hard games to come. I hope most of all though that as fans we stay solidly behind the club.
29 Posted 02/10/2012 at 06:34:10
Pip is great and he and Osman make a good partnership but they don't replace Gibson. Without Gibson we seem to be vulnerable to being run ragged through the centre and Jags and Distin can be made to look ordinary. Gibson was a steal but that was probably because both clubs recognised that he is very vulnerable to injuries?
30 Posted 02/10/2012 at 08:09:20
Away at Wigan next and let's be honest, we should get three points; last season we would probably not so lets see how we have progressed...
Also, the Gibson factor is more important than some people think; when he goes off or doesn't play, we look vulnerable... so please get him fit and playing...
31 Posted 02/10/2012 at 08:24:56
This is what we are capable of and we could get better with the removal of the weak links. if there was ever a time to properly blood Barkley in place of Osman, this is it.
Moyes will be judged on whether he can maintain and improve. Let's hope it doesn't take ten years...
32 Posted 02/10/2012 at 10:37:35
The ten games reference was indeed only about our start and if we manage to pick up 8 points or more in our next 4 games then I think we will have made a pretty good one though as noted above we have not had the toughest run. Picking up points against the big teams will be crucial if we have any realistic aspirations of champions league.
33 Posted 02/10/2012 at 11:03:13
Very rarely do teams break out of their little pigeon hole much after that (except Everton post Christmas of course).
34 Posted 02/10/2012 at 11:40:48
On a positive note I still think we have plenty in reserve. Gibson is going to come back to full fitness, if he can get back on his unbeaten premier league run then that should keep us ticking over, he's also due a few goals from midfield the likes of which are not really in Neville's game.
Jelavic is only really back scoring, he's still yet to go on one of his hot runs (this could be the start), throughout our period of good form we haven't really been relying on his goals (who wrote that thread about being nothing without Jelavic and Gibson?) when they do flow so will the points again.
The defence hasn't tightened up, statistically we had the third best defense in the league last season, and over Moyes's reign its usually been our strongest asset. So far we've been all over the shop, yet we've still kept winning. At some point it will tighten up considerably and with the clean sheets flowing so will the points.
Apart from Pienaar the new signings have't given us maximum output yet. Everyone can see there's still more of everything to ocme from Mirallas, more goals and more assists (even though he's playing well now). Naismith, a player valued higher than Jelavic by Rangers fans has yet to even feature, there will come a period when his form will come good and we'll reap the benefits of his goals.
In short then I think we've carried ourselves through this period of wonderful play with only a few players reaching their top form Pienaar, Baines (although surely there's a free kick or two in the locker for later) Osman, Fellaini and Neville (although I know a lot would argue whether his performances can be described as form, but I htink he's done remarkably for a player of 35). There is therefore reason to be hopeful then that, injuries aside, there's a lot more potential yield still to ome from other areas of the team. If everone had been in acintillating form from the off then it would be in the back of your mind that the whole axel might fall off at some point. Hopefully as some stars may fade others will pick up the slack.
Lastly I'm sick of hearing about how good the RS have been 'performing', as though they've just invented pass and move. I would pay good money just to have a propaganda gag on them for one week to spare me all the quasi-religious cliched annouuncements they come out with. Take comfort though form the fact that if they've been playing as well as they've been banging on about but got barely any points then at some point they'll start playing badly and will garner even fewer points. We'd be concerned with an injury to anyone but when you consider the possibility of what an injury to Suarez would do to them then suddenly our squad doesn't look so bad.
35 Posted 02/10/2012 at 12:29:43
36 Posted 02/10/2012 at 13:21:49
37 Posted 02/10/2012 at 13:45:39
38 Posted 02/10/2012 at 14:01:58
39 Posted 02/10/2012 at 17:22:28
That's "kecks" not "kegs"; and we won't!
40 Posted 03/10/2012 at 00:14:09
COYB
41 Posted 03/10/2012 at 08:29:18
Kev Lucas 383 - I thought your post made a lot of sense so I've set up my own "Season Tracker"!
Everything you say is right - we are on level points against the corresponding games last season, and are only +1 goal difference.
However, take Southampton out of it and 4 out of the other 5 corresponding fixtures we played after the Swansea game on 21.12.11 - which is where our season notably picked up.
Some might argue that our season picked up because we got an easier run of games in the second half – a run were having now so why be surprised if were doing well? But a run from 21.12.11 to 13.5.12 is a pretty long one - a run saw us get 1.7 points per game. We are currently running at almost ½ a point more at 2.16, against 1.16 in first 6 games of last year.
So, in essence, if we compare our start to last season we are doing as well if not better as we did at our peak last year, form that wouldve put us in the Champions League places. We have literally done what weve asked David Moyes Everton to do for years, which is take our form from the end of one season and bring it into the next.
A far as the goal difference is concerned you are right, we are +1, but we have scored 30% more goals and conceded 30% less (12/6 v 9/4) than corresponding games last year, which must be good news. WBA cost us dearly on all fronts this year.
As you said, we drew our next 2 games 1-1, both played in Feb / March where we seemed to be struggling for goals despite being in good form generally.
If we score a few in the next two and win away with the style weve been displaying so far hopefully the analysis will start to play out that this isnt a false dawn, but possibly could be the real thing.
Thanks for the tip though – love it!
42 Posted 03/10/2012 at 11:45:30
In 18 days we play four very difficult fixtures, with short breaks between, lets hope injury's don't play a part?
43 Posted 03/10/2012 at 12:27:20
44 Posted 03/10/2012 at 12:57:23
I'm just enjoying the way we're playing at the minute. I'll go into the derby, as usual thinking that we're going to thrash them too.
*no doubt Fellaini will get sent off for farting, Jelavic will have a goal chalked off because Gerrard will tell the ref it didn't go over the line
45 Posted 03/10/2012 at 13:31:12
Surely the league title is a middle distance race, not a sprint.
46 Posted 03/10/2012 at 14:19:46
I don't think that was based on first half vs second half of the season. That was because we lost the Gravedigger...
47 Posted 03/10/2012 at 20:41:23
Norwich - they just don't have the players (Grant Who?) and it was only Paul Lambert who kept them up last season. A real shame, as they're the only team who play in yellow and green.
Southampton - too good to go down but not good enough to stay up. It's finely balanced but their bizarre decision to ditch their traditional red and white stripes tips them over into the abyss.
QPR - no one likes Mark Hughes. Not even his mum. In fact, no one likes a club with oodles of money to spend. Double whammy. Also, two Premiership teams wearing blue and white hoops is a bit confusing so, with Reading safe, QPR are doomed.
Outside bet: Aston Villa - it was only Norwich's superbly talented players that made Lambert look good last season. Now, with a bunch of teenage no marks to manage, he is looking like a lost haggis. Nice claret and blue kit though...
48 Posted 03/10/2012 at 23:04:33
49 Posted 03/10/2012 at 23:58:24
Chelsea 18th Man City 19th Liverpool 20th. Now wouldn't that be good?
50 Posted 08/10/2012 at 04:03:48
51 Posted 08/10/2012 at 05:11:39
Of course we could have a collapse in form or a sublime run that sees us into the top 4 but for me these are low probability events. What I see is many ups and downs as we go from destroying many teams to fairly disappointing draws and defeats away at the likes of Wigan where the home team organises well and goes for our obvious weaknesses. I also believe that we may have in us the odd home win against the top 4 but that we don't have in us the strength and ability to trouble them away.
Our weaknesses are at RB or should that be RHS where we are fairly weak defensively with Coleman or attack wise with Hibbert. We are weak in the holding midfield area without Gibson and we know that we will struggle against sides who can nullify Fellaini and that he will always be at risk of red cards. Our CB partnership also looks brittle but that is perhaps more an indication of midfield weakness as they have to play recovery rather than just maintaining shape.
On the plus side we are now capable of playing brilliant football so hang on for a roller coaster ride, lots of disappointment (including possibly losing to Liverpool) and many high spots. I can't see us doing any business in January but if we can get this midfielder it'd be a great start.
Add Your Comments
In order to post a comment, you need to be logged in as a registered user of the site.
Or Sign up as a ToffeeWeb Member — it's free, takes just a few minutes and will allow you to post your comments on articles and Talking Points submissions across the site.

1 Posted 01/10/2012 at 19:05:15
The notion that we can further strengthen the squad in January with loan acquisitions, particularly if we're still up there challenging in the top four by then where we'll be all the more attractive to potential signings, is the intriguing one for me. It may even prompt the Board and our lenders to offer Moyes a little leeway in the debt department (not much; just enough to push the boat out a little to bolster the push).
Right now, I'm just enjoying the way this team is playing as a unit and the style of football they're putting on when they're firing on all cylinders. Keep that going, the results will take care of themselves and there's no reason why we can't surprise people this season.