Like, I’m sure, many of us, I’ve been fairly focused on the derby over the last couple of weeks, to the point where this morning, I actually had no idea who our next game was against.

I duly had a look at the fixtures ahead and it’s reminded me of what a crucial time we’ve got coming up. To save you reaching for your favourite link, here’s the next four:

Fulham (a)
Sunderland (h)
Reading (a)
Norwich (h)

Incidentally these are all on consecutive Saturdays throughout November, a rarity in our season so far with its near 50% rate of having been altered for TV coverage. The main point though, is that these four, and the three that follow it (in the space of ten days) represent two very different sorts of tests that will tell us a lot about where we really stand.

These four are all against teams below us in the table, who have consistently finished below us in the table, and who we would expect to beat. This brings with it the test of being favourites, overcoming opponents who may set out to avoid defeat, and living up to high expectations. This is a pressure we haven’t often put on ourselves, preferring to fight under and underdogs banner, and last season seemed to buckle under with some underwhelming home results against poor teams. To take 10 or even 12 points from these fixtures is not unthinkable, and some would argue necessary if we are serious about a push into 4th place.

We follow these four with:

Arsenal (h)
Man City (a)
Tottenham (h)

(The Arsenal game being midweek between Norwich and City). Clearly this is a much tougher period with City being champions and the two North London clubs being currently adjacent to us in the table. You might even include the next fixture, Stoke away, in this more difficult run.

Quite apart from it being a significant chunk of the season in itself, these two opposite kinds of runs will be a rather stark barometer of what we can seriously expect come May. I’d venture that if we can take 15 points from a possible 21, then we’re well on the way to a significantly realistic chance of breaking into that top four. Any less than 12 and we might have to accept that 6th or 7th is as good as its ever going to be.

What should we realistically expect from these games, and how much will it tell us about where we will be in May?

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Reader Comments (11)

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Ian Barker
1 Posted 29/10/2012 at 16:19:34
If we are serious about being top 4 contenders then we need 9 plus from the first four altough possibly 8 would also be a good return and unbeaten. To many draws are creeping in the the moment.

If we can be unbeaten at home to Arsenal & Spurs that would represent a good return- hopefully with 4 points. Realistically City is likely to be a loss.

So that says 13-15 points from 21. This would have us still around the top 4 but it takes some doing as all the games are tough at the moment and suspensions likely to start to kick in.

Nick Entwistle
2 Posted 29/10/2012 at 16:25:22
We normally put City to the sword don't we? Stracqualersi had an epic match from memory.
Jay Harris
3 Posted 29/10/2012 at 18:21:24
I think we should take game at a time see who is available from our painfully thin squad and look for 3 points from every game.

I think the games which may be tougher are Fulham away, Arsenal home and obviously City away.

The others should be bankers but aw we all know the only thing that IS certain is that Nothing is certain.

Shane Corcoran
4 Posted 29/10/2012 at 19:40:20
I remember looking at these two runs of fixtures when Moyes said "judge us after 10 games". I'd take a minimum of 7 from the first four games and four from the other three.

I seriously think that United will win the league fairly comfortably, City will be second and then a battle for the other two Champions League places. I just have a feeling that Abramovich is picking that Chelsea team and that they'll have a really bad run soon.
Phil Walling
5 Posted 30/10/2012 at 12:58:33
I can see us losing at least three of those seven games and suspect we shall have no more than 25 points by New Year. The derby showed our finishing is still woeful and Jelly is well off the boil......and the defence?
Call me a bloody misery but I see no hope of a top four finish and even top six will be a struggle. Why people got carried away by a respectable start amazes me.
Jamie Barlow
6 Posted 30/10/2012 at 13:26:14
Bloody misery!!
Drew O'Neall
7 Posted 07/11/2012 at 09:31:26
I expect us to batter Arsenal at home, that game being the much mooted gubbing we were bound to meat out sooner or later.
Sam Hoare
8 Posted 07/11/2012 at 11:23:57
Where is Gibson?! Why has there been absolutely no update on his progress? I'm sure I read that he had a positive scan a few weeks back and was expecting to go back into training.

After this long out he will need some reserve games just to get back to something approaching match fitness so I guess he's unlikely to be in the first team squad this weekend or even at reading. Norwich or Arsenal maybe?

Tony J Williams
9 Posted 07/11/2012 at 12:09:26
Sam, it looks like the lad who feeds me info may have been right after all. He reckons Gibson is miles away from full fitness.
Sam Hoare
10 Posted 07/11/2012 at 13:17:06
Tony, yes I remember you saying that. It seems increasingly likely that Gibson may not be a player we can rely on to be fit for any consistent length of time. I hope not as the guy can play.
Anto Byrne
11 Posted 07/11/2012 at 15:09:57
I can see why we got him on the cheap. Never look a gift horse... as they say.

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