This season has been a strange one. For me, we could easily be sat in 3rd position and in the driving seat to qualify for The Champions League, as by my reckoning we have a net deficit of 8 points.

There have been some real low points in both the league and the cup. Reading, Norwich, Wigan to name a few. Games we must be winning. There have also been some let-offs (Liverpool) and some great results – beating Manchester United on the opening weekend set us up brilliantly to make a decent start. The Manchester City result providing us with a real tonic at a crucial time, taking us into the last 9 games of the season.

Many people still believe that we will finish 6th or 7th and daren’t look further up the table than that. I understand why. We have a tough run-in while consistency has been poor this season. However it’s fair to say that consistency hasn’t been anyone’s strong point this season asides from Manchester United and that fact that we are still in with any hope of finishing in 4th is testament to the lack of quality and progression in The Premier League this year.

It is interesting to note that at this stage of the season we have lost fewer games in the Premier League than we ever have before. The defence isn’t as tight as we know it can be from this bunch of players, our forward play has dropped off a little from the standards of earlier in the season, and we have a 20-goal-a-season striker that has been in poor form. Yet we still give teams a game in the most part.

I hope the manager and players are looking at the remaining games as a mini-season: forget what has gone before, forget the summer, forget the contract issue and approach the next 6 or so weeks as the most important, with the most opportunity. There is, in my opinion, enough evidence to suggest that we can quite easily make our defence tighter and cause more problems up top, and thus turn draws into wins between now and the end of the season. If we can do that, there are five fixtures which we should win and, to be where we all want us to, we need to be winning these games: Stoke (H), QPR (A), Sunderland (A), Fulham (H), West Ham (H) – 5 teams that haven’t pulled up trees and, QPR asides, have little to play for.

This leaves us with the other four – big games against our closest competitors that will make or break our season. The bad news is that they are all away and we all know the records. These four games, for me, will or should determine Moyes’s legacy and standing as a manager, and whether we try and keep him. Can he turn the record around when it counts??

  • Liverpool +3 points and a game in hand.
  • Arsenal –2 points. Beat them and we are above them. They are no great shakes.
  • Spurs –6 points and a game in hand. Win it and beat them and we go level on points.
  • Chelsea – We won’t catch them but this is the big one; hopefully we can send the Waiter off in style by taking 3 points there on the final day of the season.
It may all sound like a pipe dream but it is clear what we have to do and if we do it then I believe that Champions League qualification is still in our hands. We have the ability!

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James Smith
1 Posted 27/03/2013 at 14:28:45
This is a great summary of the season so far - early promise, followed by potential being unfulfilled, but the result against City and Liverpool and Spurs losing, seems to have thrown us back into contention for the 4th spot.

If they win the five you've pointed out, beat Spurs at White Hart Lane which they have a canny knack of doing, and get a draw at Anfield then I think we could be there.

But


But it never quite works out like that does it?

Kieran Fitzgerald
2 Posted 27/03/2013 at 14:49:39
Our next four games are Stoke (H), Spurs (A), QPR (H), Arsenal (A). If we can win against Stoke and Spurs, this will put serious pressure on both Spurs and Arsenal. Win against and Arsenal and they could become shaky again. I still am not convinced about their confidence.
Tony J Williams
3 Posted 27/03/2013 at 15:00:33
We will not beat Arsenal, Spurs, the Shite or Chelski and I have a dreadful feeling that Fulham will get their first Premiership points against us at Goodison this year....
John Crook
4 Posted 27/03/2013 at 15:22:21
I would fancy us to win 1 of those 4 away. I suspect North London would be the most likely destination. Arsenal are probably more inconsistent than us and on a midweek game its time to get our 1st win there since the Kanchelskis period.

It will be interesting to see how Spurs do at Swansea this weekend. They could be due a bit of a bad run!

Steve Carse
5 Posted 27/03/2013 at 15:32:10
..... and we're due to come a cropper at Sunderland.......
Ian Bennett
6 Posted 27/03/2013 at 15:47:18
Everton will either come nowhere near it, or miss it in glorious failure.

If we did get 4th, you would pretty much guarantee that Uefa would then reduce the places to three as they had:-

A) Too many clubs playing in blue.

B) Clubs are not allowed to play with restricted views.

C) We failed the fair play rules around lawn mower parts.

D) Barry Horne has seen enough and leads a Wrexham-style buy-out through menaces.

E) Liverpool hold a flag demo which put's them into competition following Cilla pulling in some favours from Platini following his surprise, surprise surprise appearance on the re-run show.

F) Howard Kendall's autobiography exposes that he tried to corner the market in right backs in his third gig which is against EU law. He brushes off the criticism by accepting the hot seat for the fourth time. Kendall's first game is away to Anfield which he wins 24-nil, after pent up attacking anger from the Blues. Barkley scores 25, but has one chalked for showing a tee-shirt "Once a Blue... Right, I am off". He promptly signs for £10m with United. Kenwright explains it was the best deal on the table, and it least covers this year's lawn-mower bill.

G) The Champions League is scrapped with a break away super league created by Fenway Sports. Super league turn down Everton's application as they fail the "Bullens Road stand smelling of piss on a damp day" test. Kenwright offers nose pegs to save the £50m rebuild. "What's the problem, the fans will happily pay £5 for them?"

Paul Andrews
7 Posted 27/03/2013 at 16:28:06
James,

It is always better to be glass half full. Having said that, you have us winning at 2 grounds that we haven't won at in 11 years of asking for the scenario to work.

Good luck with that one, mate, but fact is David hasn't managed to set a team out tactically to win at Chelsea, Arsenal or Liverpool in the 11 years he has been in charge. Add Man Utd to that list. 40 plus games in all = no wins.

Anthony Flack
8 Posted 27/03/2013 at 16:57:02
Ian – I hope for other peoples sake that you are not

a) A Samaritan
b) A Counsellor

And for our sakes a fortune teller.

Very funny note though.

Mick Quirke
9 Posted 27/03/2013 at 18:18:06
PMSL at Ian 116. We have a chance, and we will win at the Emirates finally. I also think Moyes winning at Anfield will be his swansong. But Chelsea and Spurs away too is a tough order, plus we're due to lose at home to Fulham at home or to Sunderland away who are gonna be fighting for their lives.
Peter Warren
10 Posted 27/03/2013 at 18:37:13
Not in our hands as teams above us with more points even if we beat them away. Outside chance of Europe but unlikely. Hopefully finish above the shite.
Steve Edwards
11 Posted 27/03/2013 at 18:47:50
Dream on. People get carried away on the back of one good result. James, ever thought about writing a book? You have an exceptional talent for pure fiction.
Ross Edwards
12 Posted 27/03/2013 at 19:20:39
James,

You've got to remember whose hands we are placing our hopes in. BK and Moyes. If we beat Stoke we have a chance but if Moyes reverts to type now he has "masterminded" another win v City we have no chance. If we play in the last 8 games like we did in the first games we can do it.

David Hallwood
13 Posted 27/03/2013 at 20:21:30
I went on BBC predictor and on that we finish 3rd — and the Chardonnay went down a treat.
Chris Leyland
14 Posted 27/03/2013 at 20:16:40
Peter Warren – it is in our hands (sort of). If we won all 9 games we'd hav 75 points. The most points Arsenal could get if we beat them is 74. The most points Spurs can get if we beat them is 75. Spurs have a goal difference 3 better than ours. So, if we beat Spurs 2-0 and then win all our games by exactly the same margin of victory as Spurs win all their other games then we are guaranteed 4th. Piece of piss really isn't it?
Kunal Desai
15 Posted 27/03/2013 at 20:53:12
Liklihood is we'll draw against Stoke and one other perhaps QPR and win the other two. 8 points from the home games. 1 win from the away games (sunderland perhaps) and even 2 draws from the other 4 away games. I don't see anymore than 61 points.
Steve Edwards
16 Posted 27/03/2013 at 21:33:44
Deluded. I just wonder what you guys are on.
Mark Frere
17 Posted 27/03/2013 at 21:18:26
The January transfer window fiasco has cost us big time. We desperately needed some new faces, everyone could see that. I blame the board for making us a nearly club for so long now. This board could fuck up a cup coffee!
Ciaran Duff
18 Posted 27/03/2013 at 22:50:07
Interesting piece, James, but I think the main focus should be (to quote Mr J Heitinga) that we have "9 cup finals til the end of the season". Let's focus just on the next game against Stoke. I hope we get a full house, a raucous atmosphere and the team (minus Fellaini and Pienaar) continue the momentum from the City game. Forget everything else, we just need to do everything we can to get a win on Saturday.
Karl Masters
19 Posted 27/03/2013 at 23:37:34
Ciaran is right. One game at a time. But we have to believe we can do it to have any chance. And why not? All four of those tough away games are against teams who are very inconsistent. Brilliant one day, rubbish the next. We must be able to get something against at least a couple of them. Winning all home games is vital.
James Stewart
20 Posted 28/03/2013 at 01:37:00
Pure fantasy. We don't have the squad to cope with domestic cups let alone European ones. Last time we made the CL we went all out and bought Phil Neville! Then proceeded to embarrass ourselves in the Europa.

There is no way we will catch Spurs; they are a class act.

Eric Myles
21 Posted 28/03/2013 at 05:15:28
What is really annoying is that when the RS joined us on 45 points the press and pundits were full of how they are only 'a' points off a CL place and 'b' points off 3rd while all along we had been in a better position, and playing better football, but not a mention of us.

Even now, when we are only 6 points off 4th with a game in hand, not a peep... but I bet if RS win on Sunday and we lose on Saturday the 'pundits' will be wetting themselves exclaiming how the RS can make a push for 4th.

Sam Hoare
22 Posted 28/03/2013 at 09:37:23
Requiring the team to win at Spurs, Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea is a pretty Herculean task. Not impossible but highly improbable. Bar the city game it would seem to me that all those teams have been playing far better than us in the last couple of months.

Realistically we would do very well to get more than 7 points from those 4 fixtures and that might be enough to see us ahead of the RS or possibly even sneak 5th but too many unlikely things would have to happen for us to make 4th.

Of course had the board facilitated £20m of January transfer spending like the RS did then we really would be in the mix. Opportunity missed.

Sam Hoare
23 Posted 28/03/2013 at 09:45:42
Here's one possible happy ending: http://fourfourtwo.com/blogs/fourfourtwoview/archive/2013/03/28/premier-league-prediction-2012-13.aspx
Nick Armitage
24 Posted 28/03/2013 at 10:37:25
Spurs collapse at the end of every season, even their fans are expecting it.

If we finish above Arsenal, then fourth could be ours, but I am not holding my breath. We blew it months ago.

Steve Guy
25 Posted 28/03/2013 at 10:45:32
I've never been on anything "higher" than a few large gin and tonic and if drugs make you this delusional I shan't be taking them anytime soon.

The change required in our fortunes after the crap of the last few months would be monumental. I hope you are right but think you might need a bit more wacky baccy to get over the disappointment come May.

Chris Fisher
27 Posted 28/03/2013 at 11:51:24
It's not really in our hands though is it, even if we did draw level on points with Spurs by beating them and Arsenal they would still be ahead of us on goal difference and we would have to rely on them dropping points and rely on us not to!!

We could do it but it's unlikely and it is not in our hands!

Phil Walling
28 Posted 28/03/2013 at 14:47:50
Doesn`t take a genius to forecast that if Everton win all their remaining matches they will be well in the Top Four spots.The likelihood of them doing so is in the range of nil to zero!

My money`s safe on 6/7th.

Andy Meighan
29 Posted 28/03/2013 at 17:04:59
We got 3 points against a Man City side whose body language absolutely stunk. Albeit a great result and performance by us.

And there's some who still think we can finish 4th. Not a chance it's going to happen. It's asking us to win at grounds where we haven't for eons.

And be fair, Moyes pisses himself when he goes to Anfield. You'd think he was facing Sourness, Case, Dalglish, Rush et al in their pomp rather than the shite they've got now... but he still goes to bits.

I'd love to be going into the last game with a great chance of finishing 4th. But I'm a realist and it won't happen. We missed a trick in the January window. So thanks, Kenwright you poncey fucker.

Colin Glassar
30 Posted 28/03/2013 at 18:23:41
Too many draws. We should've beaten Newcastle at home but got robbed by the linesman. Should've beaten Fulham as we battered them. That's 4 points right there which would've put us right in the top 4 mix.

It's still possible to get 4th place but I'm not holding my breath.

Winston Williamson
31 Posted 28/03/2013 at 18:42:37
Don't you just love Evertonian blind belief!

We do it to ourselves though. Hope. quintessential hope.

Ernie Baywood
32 Posted 29/03/2013 at 00:02:37
I've still got hope. The likelihood is that we might pull a result out in one of those tough away games but will likely drop points in some of the easier fixtures.

6th would be good from here. Losing 4th was due to not beating lesser teams when we had them on the rack.

Chris Owens
33 Posted 29/03/2013 at 12:36:55
Everton’s role in the 54 years of my life has been to build up my hopes and then let me down. Possibly 1985 was the exception, but even then we lost our last game – the FA Cup Final – to ten men when the treble was there for the taking.

The last few seasons have started badly, and finished well, leaving us thinking “Imagine what we can do next season if we can get a good start”. Well, we got that good start, but we’ve still blown it, because that’s what we do.

Does anyone seriously believe we will win at Arsenal, Spurs, Chelsea and the flea pit? Apparently so. That’s why Evertonians are different class. No matter how often they let us down, we still keep coming back, full of hope.

Peter Bradshaw
34 Posted 29/03/2013 at 12:53:28
finish 4th must be high on mortein- not a hope in hell, we played well against City, but which team will turn up against the inspirational Stoke.

Fellaini and Pienaar absent, that means Pip in midfield, will Jelli find his scoring boots, will Naismith play ( worst player in a blue shirt since David Smallman)

If we are honest we know we will finish 7th, RS will turn us over as normal as Moyes plays 10 across the back, Spuds wont fall over this year, we wont beat Chelsea, and we run scared against Arsenal.

Cant wait for this season to end, promised so much and delivered nothing once again, the same for the last 11 years.

Trevor Lynes
35 Posted 29/03/2013 at 16:03:39
We totally missed the boat in January by not buying two or three players... and I don't want to read articles about poverty anymore... I don't believe it !!

We supposedly had money to take Ofoe on loan and buy Fer... so its still available.

We actually loaned OUT 4 players since January including Barkley who is now back.

With Jags out we will do well to combat teams like Stoke never mind the top teams we still need to play and beat.

Stephen Kenny
36 Posted 29/03/2013 at 18:43:50
This is usually the time of year we come on strong. No reason to believe we won't again.
Jamie Crowley
37 Posted 30/03/2013 at 05:08:06
Just when you think the door is open again, it shuts.

Then it cracks open again...

Then it shuts....

Then a small crack... opens again...

My God Everton just rip the life out of you.

I feel that small glimmer of hope again, but I anticipate the pain coming... the door slamming shut. Hope I'm wrong.

Gareth Fieldstead
38 Posted 01/04/2013 at 11:50:04
We have won our last three games, conceded once and scored six. The biggest game for me is the Spurs game, not just the fact that it is our next game but how we cope without Peinnar and Fellaini. They are playing in midweek, but Everton will have to perform much better than Saturday. Even a point and anything is possible. I think we will win our home games plus Sunderland that is 67 points, we would then need a win from one of the last 3 and that will be enough.

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