Brexit, what will happen now?

Transfer fees and wage deals have just got more expensive with the collapse of sterling on the back of the vote. Currency exchanges and the stock markets will inevitably stabilise and find their own levels, but this will have considerable consequences for all aspects of life in the UK including football clubs.

It will certainly alter the landscape considerably in all areas and most definitely football. Of course nothing will change overnight as it will be at least two years before negotiations are completed which will give clubs breathing space to adapt to the new circumstances.

Business dealings in the short term will be affected due to uncertainty of the £.... and this summer's transfer market may well be critically affected.

Without trivialising the Brexit with football matters, it was all going far too swimmingly for us wasn't it, and didn't we all know something was just round the corner to piss on our British - Iranian chips?

More interesting is whether Bosman rules would still apply. Was this an EU ruling? If it was then presumably it would no longer be binding on what happens within UK football.

With the first crushing ballot return from Gibraltar in favour of staying within the EU, the sterling to Euro rate spiked in favour of the pound at 1.45. With the first overwhelming out vote from Sunderland the rate plummeted 20 cents to 1.20.

A 10 million euro player would cost ٤.9 million at the more favourable rate, ٦.1 million at the lesser rate. Agents will also seek currency protection on their client's (sterling) salary.

Brits retired overseas and receiving a sterling based pension from the UK, for example, will notice a considerable drop in the exchange rate with their local currency unless and until the markets stabilze and recover from the shock the British electorate delivered yesterday.

From the Telegraph,

"Triggering Article 50, formally notifying the intention to withdraw, starts a two-year clock running. After that, the Treaties that govern membership no longer apply to Britain. The terms of exit will be negotiated between Britain's 27 counterparts, and each will have a veto over the conditions."

I don't see how any transfers in the current window can be affected.

On the flip side, I don't think it is right that a player under contract can agitate for a move, a la Lukaku. There has to be a balance, and that might now be achieved in law given that the UK can determine its own laws.

Let's wait until the dust settles on our transfer dealings and see how the start to next season pans out. I am more in hope than before his appointment but the proof of the pudding is in the eating.

Greg Dyke, Chairman of the FA, has said that, as far as he is concerned, once we finally leave, the Bosman ruling will no longer be effective here.

So I wish Twat Dyke good luck with that as restraint of trade is still covered by UK law

Not to mention the People's Republic of Liverpool.. 59.2% - 41.8% to remain

Jean-Marc Bosman was a player for RFC Liège in the Belgian First Division in Belgium whose contract had expired in 1990. He wanted to change teams and move to Dunkerque, a French team. However, Dunkerque refused to meet his Belgian club's transfer fee demand, so Liège refused to let him go.

In the meantime, Bosman's wages were reduced as he was no longer a first-team player. He took his case to the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg and sued for restraint of trade citing FIFA's rules regarding football, specifically Article 17.

I don't think anyone really thought the population of the UK would vote for Brexit and they have no plans outlined to implement the change. The government will need time to find a new leader and organise next steps. All this needs to happen before they engage for Article 50.

We're talking may be 5 years, may be more, before leaving the EU becomes anything close to a reality.

"Not to mention the People's Republic of Liverpool.. 59.2 - 41.8 to remain..."

and Robert @ 22:

"I think Liverpool should seek independence from the rest of the UK now. If nothing else it would certainly improve our chances of qualifying for the Europa League!"

I could live with that!

As well as the right to live abroad - or soon at least, we are soon to lose our country as Scotland's nationalists will see their opportunity to split.

Rather than elect a govt to sort out problems like low pay, and high rents and house prices, we blow everything up.

Let's see what exchange rates are like in 6 months time before we start spouting off about permanent change to wealth or other economic measures.

In any event since when has a declining exchange rate been an unambiguous negative. Read up on your economic history.

I read recently that since the mid-90s, about 92% of our EU-derived legislation has been in accord with the UK's wishes, not against our wishes.

Jay, it's the "survival of the fittest" bit that worries me! Some species die out!

I think it will make no discernible difference whatsoever. By the time we actually exit the EU, we will have it all worked out.

Bosman was a European Court of Justice ruling, as the Supreme Court of the EU member states are bound by its decisions.

ECJ decisions are not binding on non-EU member states so once we leave the EU, ECJ decisions (including Bosman) will not be binding on the UK. We could rip it up and start again.

Personally, I think we'll end up with something very similar to the current position. Players are just employees on fixed term contracts, when the contract term expires they should be free to move, just as any other employee in the UK is. No way we will go back to the position pre-Bosman.

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/eu-brexit-could-have-big-consequences-for-a-premier-league-full-of-Link

As someone who won't see 60 again, as far as I'm concerned, the old have sold the young down the river.

Reason? I don't believe the base currency for transfer fees is the Euro.

This is not like oil, which is quoted in dollars given the latter's status as the global reserve currency.

Last time I checked, the EPL spent the most amount on transfer fees on a net basis.

Since EPL clubs operate a sterling based budget, and dominate the scene in terms of transfers, it will be the sellers (exporters into UK) who will face a diminished value.

Furthermore, Barca, Real, PSG, Bayern may find themselves able to pay higher transfer fees and wages than the bigger EPL clubs, but taxation will also be a consideration for top players. Without the UK's contribution France, Italy, Germany and Spain will carry a higher load and may need to increase taxation.

Outside of these super clubs, even with a devalued pound the budgets of almost every EPL club will exceed its European rivals with the new TV money. On that basis, I think EPL clubs will continue to dominate the European transfer market.

The issue on whether there will be quotas depends on the final settlement on movement of labour. It will be in the UK's fiscal interest to allow migration of skilled/high net worth individuals from the EU, and so EU footballers could well find a path to the EPL relatively smooth.

One hopes so anyway. Our new found spending power should hopefully allow us to cherry pick the best talent available and ready to join us regardless of nationality.

A successful team full of English players is an ideal, but given that you would have to go back to the Lisbon Lions in 1967 to find the last fully home grown side to conquer Europe, the probability of collecting such a talent pool seems remote.

Only certainty is the outcome of the vote so let's accept it and work on it.

It may be a nasty divorce from Europe and some people may suffer. I pray those who voted out to get one over the government don't suffer the most. Immigration has been a fundermental part of our history and will be in the future. The day my country cannot reach out to those wishing to live and work here. Then it's time to leave.

The decision has been made. Right or wrong it's here. The only way it will work is to pull together.

So it would seem that if they had got off their backsides, got their heads out of their iPads and Xboxes and voted... but no, they'll just make noises about how their mum should've woke them up and made them vote. After Ignoring 6 calls to wake up and - as usual, it will be everybody else's fault except theirs.

The Pound and The Euro BOTH dropped and in a couple of weeks will slowly rise and find a level again when the panic stops and the compromising begins, so I doubt there will be any real effect vis a vis transfers.

If we want to buy a player from a EU club, we will (still) have to pay them in Euros, and most likely the players salary too, they won't want GBP. Similarly if they want to buy a UK player they will pay in GBP.

It's not like some Law Lord is now going to say "By the powers vested in me, it is my solemn duty to inform Everton Football Club Company Limited that the bid for Mr. Lionel Messi is hereby overturned. Everton Football Club Company Limited will now be required to employ, pay and play one Jimmy Krankie. Case closed, God Save The Queen !".

Liverpool, however, will be forced to employ, pay and play Lily Savage, who will "go down easy" and win them 50 odd penalties (but then insist on taking them him/herself, only to miss all of them).

If Everton do go out and buy Euros to pay for a player, it does not change the fact that their wage and transfer budget is based in pounds. If they have a budget to buy a player of 20m pounds which is worth 30m euros one day and 20m euros the next, this is only a problem if there is a queue of clubs willing to pay 30m euros. If the queue is dominated by EPL clubs then the selling club will find few takers for their price in Euros.

Only a handful of European super clubs have budgets in excess of EPL clubs. These clubs will buy 10pc or so of the players transferred?

The bulk of the demand for EU players will derive from the EPL. And with sterling based budgets, it will mean a correction in transfer fees in Euros.

The Euro is not the base currency for transfers as there is no such thing - it will come down to demand and supply and the demand lies with EPL clubs.

Fees for foreign players are often quoted in Euros but UK press convert it to GBP so fans in UK can understand it.

Same if we bought a player from South America, e.g. Funes Mori, they will want paying in local currency and won't care how many GBP it costs

The GBP based budget of EPL clubs is their own problem if they do not have enough in Euros to buy a player.

Football is no exception and whilst the fluctuations in currency are an inconvenience to the large clubs all it will mean is harder lines will be taken with negotiations. Once we have left the EU, where it will impact will be the movement of players around Europe, possible implications and difficulties for European players to play in the Premier league, after all, they will need a visa like any other potential European immigrant? What rules will apply? Its hardly likely in the short term that the UK will set up a separate set of Immigration laws to cover a couple of hundred short term contracts and players associated families. It will probably make it more difficult to comply. Free movement of labour has been rejected by the people of the UK and with it will come regulation to make it harder to get into this country.

You can split hairs with the reasons for Brexit, but the vote showed, once and for all, that the British people were fed up to the back teeth with the policies of austerity fuelled by an ideology of conservatism. Sadly, it wasn't about Europe. It was about power.

But this is not the place to debate perverse politics.. go read the Guardian for that!

Everton have an excellent academy that can produce gifted players and I hope the changes mean that more of the young players who are let go, have a better chance of making it to the first team. Free movement of players (contracts aside) make it attractive to live and play in the EPL, its more likely that overall we will see fewer players from Europe and the impact on the EPL may see it as less of a international showcase and more of a Bundesliga outcome.

a less attractive to the likes of SKY - thereby reducing club incomes from TV rights advertising etc. - not that we had much of that in the past!!

"The GBP based budget of EPL clubs is their own problem if they do not have enough in Euros to buy a player."

This is the heart if the argument. I would agree with you if there were more than 4-5 clubs on the continent who could compete with EPL budgets.

However, I don't think this is the case. EPL clubs dominate the rich list and the EPL as a whole accounts for the lion's share of net transfer spend.

By definition the EPL is a net importer. Unless the EU can export its footballers to a rival market, it will not be able to export the same volume as before unless transfer fees correct for Sterling devaluation.

In terms of what currency transfer fees are denominated in, I see no evidence of there being a set convention for which currency applies. Neymar's fee was paid by Barca to Santos in Euros, based on the public disclosures made in his tax case. If I am Man U negotiating with Santos, GBP could similiarly be the denomination. Its surely about who holds the balance of power in negotiations.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/24/brexit-vote-what-does-it-mean-professional-sport-eu

The man who thought Moyes 'waited out' Fellaini's release clause so he could offer MORE.

You seem embroiled in every legal/financial discussion that ever ensues on TW yet lack some incredibly basic knowledge.

Why would a club wait for a player's release clause to expire before bidding? It made no sense then and makes no sense now.

Now if an EPL club cannot afford the €100 mn fee of a player and only wants to pay €80 mn because of exchange rate fluctuations, then the selling club can just sell at the higher price domestically. Or maybe the reduced price will make it more attractive to other clubs within the EU?

It will ultimately be the player's decision as to whether they want to be paid in Sterling or Euro, and my bet is they will want the club to take the currency risk.

Less European players means more opportunities for young UK players. Less TV money will start to roll back the artificial inflation in transfer fees and wages that is currently happening. It seems to me that transfer fees are high across Europe because EPL clubs are rich, and wages are high, for the same reason. If there was less money in the game due to exchange rate, or less TV money, then transfer fees would fall, as would wages.

Bringing it back to Everton, whenever there is less money in the game, we seem to be able to compete better, the financial playing field might be leveled a bit more to allow us to shine.

Tax rates are also an important consideration. The UK has a lower top rate of tax than say France. Zlatan Ibrahimovic for example may find himself better off on a net basis in the EPL even with the devaluation.

I still believe EPL dominance in the EU transfer markets will not be affected, as only 4-5 clubs have the budgets to outspend the top 10-15 clubs in the EPL. But we will see I guess...

It all depends now on how the agreements are on movement of footballers but what I see is that overall it will increase the quality of Everton relative the the UK Franchise Five, but possibly reduce the quality of English teams relative to European but maybe the opposite will happen.

The only positive I can see with this Brexit mess is that we won't have to take part in the Eurovision song contest any more.

Fat chance!.

A quick check of the stats will show that in the last 5yrs the GBP/Euro has been all over the place and now at about 1.24 is not far off the average.

if PSG want Lukaku or we want whoever there will be an Internal price in the heads of both buyer and seller that will say I'm not paying/selling for more/less than 'X'.

Fees are paid (mostly) over a number of years anyway. Now I don't know if currency fluctuations are written in to theses things... and who knows how Mr M does his business and out of the back of whose sofa the money will be found or which Country this sofa is located.

Nothing's going to change for 2yrs MINIMUM, probably more. Plenty of time to learn how to live with this New Jerusalem.

The big thing for EFC is not the exchange rate or possible new rules on freedom of employment...the bits that everybody know that work will 95% stay. Everton's real concern should be/are.

a) Keeping the Players who may want to leave

b) Finding the right players to bring in to build the squad.

c) Getting the squad fitter, physically and mentally.

d) winning games and all that other footy stuff like Cups and stuff

Option to end Bosman;
Fewer average European players coming in;
An end to 16-year-olds from teh EU going into academies. The age would move to 18;
More expensive transfer fees and wages from a devalued pound;
Presumably less EU technical staff;
Potentially less interest in the EPL resulting in lower TV broadcasting revenues.

Absolutely pathetic comment

I'm pretty sure that laws regarding football transfers and players contracts will be pretty far down the list of things that the negotiators prioritise first.

Also Fifa/Uefa sets a lot of the rules the clubs have to follow so other than currency fluctuations, I think the Brexit decision will have fuck-all effect in the short term.

The port security agreements are between France and the UK not between the UK and the EU.

Dunno where Dean @ 152 is getting his Forex numbers from, but if he can get that rate he should buy large and start selling at the true rate to make a Soros-like killing.

Since the first negative Brexit results announced Friday morning when the pound plummeted from a spike of 1.38 euros to the pound to 1.20, THAT is where it's stayed for 4 days now. As I write 1.1952 (and typically you won't get that commercial rate - 1.16 or 1.17 is a truer figure).

That kind of margin not only makes a considerable difference on the £20 million purchase of a player (€3.7 million less, by my calculations), but also to very every ex-pat living abroad and receiving, for example, a UK pension converted from sterling to practically every local currency as the devaluation of the pound is universal.

Previously, under the EU, employment laws covered any kind of work, but the UK can now rewrite those rules to say, no more Spanish waiters, but wingers?...no probs...

IMO - Looking on from a distance, I note also that the referendum result is not binding on the government. So, I question whether or not the exit will take place. Is there a Poly in UK strong enough to create a "renegotiate a better Europe scenario"? Legally possible but politically dangerous (for those who dare!).

Effect of the EPL and British football in general? Will this affect the massive TV payments (maybe, maybe not)? Will the pound will recover? For the time-being, those with the "mega bucks" to invest are screwing every penny out of the 98-odd percent of other people by injecting panic in to the markets. When they see it is time to cash in, the markets will come back and so will the pound IMO.

Can't see much else major that will affect the EPL etc. Unless they go back to the old heavy ball with leather lace. Ouch!

Maybe a new British Rules Football a bit like our Aussie Rules Football in which, if you miss the goal, you can still have a point (providing it's not too far off target). :) :)

So why do all the commentators make the excuse that the lighter ball is affecting the shot (mostly too high) and also that the new "lighter" ball tends to move about a lot, making it difficult for the goalies?

Also, thanks Ray. Absolutely right. They also had a bladder - a bit like an old fashioned car tyre (way back when!)

Bob and Eric, they also had a rubber 'dicky' by which air was pumped into it. When the bladder is inflated to the required psi 'the dicky' is tightly tied then folded and tucked between the bladder and the outer leather skin. A leather lace is used to seal the gap. The completed procedure is called a casey.

Please note! above descriptive terms are as used on the playing fields of south Liverpool and may vary with different areas.

Perhaps higher prices and wages are being paid, but I am sceptical. I think the currency moves are irrelevant. The EPL has money to burn and transfers this summer will be greatly inflated, so judging the impact of currency moves versus general transfer inflation is hard.

The other cost of devaluation, in terms of inflating transfers and wages given constant/growing demand from the EPL, is hard to assess from where I sit.

Are EPL clubs paying 10pc more in Sterling terms compared to last summer? Who can tell. There is a huge general inflation in the wage and transfer market this summer compared to last.

The Euro is also facing its issues. If Italian banks go kaput, Sterling may strengthen against the Euro, and London could retain its status as a financial centre post Brexit, as firms seek shelter from EU contagion.

I notice UK has a new female prime minister as an outcome of the Brexit vote. Is she another Maggie T, I wonder? I know nothing about her.

Interesting times around the world!!