Ah well, it was good while it lasted... but with normal service now being resumed, Sunday’s point against Chelsea looks to be the blip.  Anyone still reading after seeing my name at the top – there must be someone – either hasn’t read one of my rambles before or doesn’t want David Moyes to be sacked and doesn’t think I’m the internet equivalent of the loony with the placard haranguing passers by to remind them the end is nigh.

If you’re still here, then no, I don’t believe David Moyes should be sacked but clearly something has to change soon.  Before I go any further, I should point out that I am gutted to see us bottom of the league and,  although I wasn’t lucky enough to see the likes of Tommy Eglington and T G Jones I have heard of them, and was lucky enough to see the likes of Southall, Ratcliffe, Steven, Reid, Bracewell, Sheedy, Sharp, Gray on a regular basis — so I do know what it is like to see a good Everton team. 

I was also lucky enough to see the likes of Angell, Thomsen, Ferguson (Mick not Dunc), Spencer (John not Frank, I think), Tiler and Thomas in an Everton shirt.  I know which I preferred and still carry the vivid memories of the Canon League trophy (25 years for that?) being paraded around Goodison.  I have suffered the Smith years when survival was openly accepted by the management team as our only aim and duly achieved annually without a last day nailbiter.  They delivered what they promised, but on none of these occasions did I see us as ‘successful’. 

All of the above should be irrelevant, but it seems that the general concensus of opinion in the mailbag of late is that anybody who can’t see that Moyes should be sacked like, last month, is either thick or sees Premiership survival as achievement enough for Everton Football Club.  Bit patronising that isn’t it lads?  Yes, I do know what Nil Satis Nisi Optimum means, and No, I’m not bloody satisfied at the moment... but just because I don’t think that changing the manager is the only, or best, way forward doesn’t mean that I don’t understand our motto and what this club stands for.

I suspect that we all do — which is why it seems to hurt us more than it probably should, and why we are all so passionate about voicing our views on what should happen.

Reading the ToffeeWeb mailbag, it seems as though some people have just woken from a coma and realised that we are no longer a dominant force in football.  Since we last won the league, we have been in steady decline whilst, it seems, almost everybody else has moved forward.  The game has changed, for the worse in many ways, and we have been very slow to embrace these changes.  I mean, since when did Chelsea become trendy enough to attract one of the world’s richest men?

Yet, having survived Bingham, Lee, Walker, Harvey (great player and coach – undoubtedly; great manager –sadly not), HK III and Smith, it is the football served up by David Moyes that has prompted so many Blues to commit the supporter equivalent of Hari Kari and stop going to the match.  Why now?  Is this side really that bad?

Or does it have more to do with the fact that David Moyes, just a few short months ago, gave us hope that we were moving back up to where we belong, that at long last we could hold our head’s high again, and that seeing that hope dashed is one heartbreak too many?  Has this been the final realisation that the game has changed dramatically and left us behind?  Even Wigan are looking down at us now.

If that is the case, then maybe it is not Moyes who you should be looking at to shoulder full responsibility.  If we trace our decline since 1987, the only real blips came from one season under Royle, followed by another slide, and two under Moyes, both followed by the familiar slide.  Yes, Moyes has made mistakes, but that’s what happens when you appoint a promising young manager.  Even Allardyce and Curbishley had hiccups along the way.  Allardyce was even sacked by Blackpool!

The fact is, Moyes has repeatedly shown an ability to rectify his mistakes.  He took over Preston in 1998, after they finished 15^th in Division 2.  The following season they finished 5^th and were promoted as Champions the next season, 1999-2000.  In his first season in Division 1 they finished 4^th and reached the play-off final.  The following season, with Moyes leaving in March to join Everton, they finished 8^th.  At Everton he has finished 7^th, 17^th and 4^th in the Premiership. 

I think it’s fair to say, one bad season excepted, his record stands up to any of the younger breed managers being touted as possible replacements.  It also shows just how inexperienced he is in managerial terms and highlights the learning curve he is on — as are the likes of Dowie and Newell, being touted by some as possible replacements.  It certainly shows favourably against Paul Jewell, a very good manager who has suffered a few downs along with the ups. 

The question is whether Moyes has hit a wall or can get us back on track and take us forward again.  I still believe it’s the latter, but only a fool could say that results since January haven’t led to some doubts.  This is certainly a very testing time, a period when Moyes has had very few options available to make significant changes, and could well make or break him as a manager.  The danger of course is that if it breaks him, it could well break us, and I can understand people being twitchy.  If, or when, the trigger is pulled is the difficult bit to judge.

What Moyes and Jewell have in common is that they have shown an ability to bounce back from setbacks — something the likes of Dowie and Newell have yet to really prove.  What all of these men have in common is that all of their achievements, relative or tangible, have been done on limited budgets.  If having a lot of money to spend is really as testing as having none, these men are all unproven. 

My point is not to discredit any other managers, but instead to point out that it is not possible to back up their credentials as being considerably better, or even necessarily equal to those of David Moyes.  It’s all hypothetical and changing the manager can just as easily backfire as solve your problems. 

Some would point to their brands of football being more entertaining than Moyes’s.  Perhaps... and in recent weeks it is hard to argue the point.  Certainly Mike Walker put out teams that played attractive football.  Sadly, it wasn’t winning football, at least not at Everton where the demands are so great.  There is a huge difference between playing attractive football at a smaller club and sending out an attractive team for Everton.  Just how many of our current problems are simply down to lack of confidence is hard to gauge.

Some mailbag correspondents would seem to disagree, but given the choice between grinding out a win or watching an entertaining defeat, the vast majority of Evertonians are realists and would choose the former.  An entertaining victory is best of all, but it is the victory that really counts.  Let’s face it, we all preferred the Joe Royle’s mongrels to Mike Walker’s thoroughbreds.  Barry Horne or Vinny Samways?  No contest... 

There were very few, if any, complaints about our style of football last season, at least not when we won.  Of course we all enjoyed the demolition of Aston Villa, but it was overshadowed by the wins we ground out over Liverpool and Man Utd.  We won a lot of tight games last year; this year we have lost them.  There is no doubt that confidence plays at least some part in all of this.

Here, then is the crux.  The one thing you really need to be sure of before you sack the manager is that he is DEFINITELY the main cause of the problems you currently face.  Furthermore, it helps if you can be fairly sure that you have a replacement lined up who can improve in those areas, preferably in the long-term as well as the immediate future.

At this point, the decision needs to be made whether you need a fire-fighter to do a short-term job — maybe a Venables or a Robson; or a long-term appointment — maybe that Mr Allardyce or Mr Curbishley could be tempted to jump ship.  If not, then there’s three roads you can go down.  Maybe a Burley or a Royle — proven managers with a good track record, although they both have a sacking or two under their belts.  Maybe a wild card — a foreign coach.  Bit of a gamble, but worth a try surely, for a change if nothing else.

If not, then maybe one of the new breed: Jewell, Dowie and Pardew have all done well, with the odd blip of course.  Dowie’s getting a bit of stick at Palace of late; Jewell was sacked by Sheffield Wednesday; and West Ham fans wanted the ‘out of his depth’ Pardew out not so long ago. 

Looking further afield, young Mr Newell, down at Luton, has the support of some fans.  Yes, the same kopite forward booed out of Goodison in his playing days.  He started like a house on fire with us as well, until his confidence drained away.  Of course, his temperament will have changed totally now.  Mind you, he wasn’t exactly popular at Hartlepool as I recall and seemed to struggle under pressure there.  He may be just what we need; he may be a disaster.  Is now the time to find out?

The fact is, all, some or none of the above may do a better job than David Moyes.  But we don’t know.  Mind you, would any of them fancy the pressure cooker of Everton?  A big club, with unbelievably passionate support and unbelievably high expectations given their financial situation?   I think it’s fair to say that the Everton job is seen as a very ‘difficult’ one in football circles.  Don’t forget, Mike Walker was doing exceptionally well at Norwich before he came here; Joe Royle and Walter Smith were, and still are, highly regarded as successful managers.  All three found the Everton hotseat a little too hot.  Even someone as confident, some would say arrogant, as Martin O’Neill didn’t fancy the challenge.

So, who would you choose?  It could be interesting to compare each candidate’s career record with Moyes’s.  However, the current wisdom seems to be that Moyes’s past ‘achievements’ count for nothing now.  Oh, well, that should make the Board’s job much easier when appointing a replacement.  No need to look at anyone’s CV.  All you need to do is check the last set of results, put the managers of all the winning teams into a hat, draw one out and offer him the job.  He’ll take it, of course.  We are Everton after all.

Of course, it’s far from simple and hindsight is a fantastic tool to use in condemnation.  Just as the mailbag contributor who offered the view that not signing Forssell now looks to be good judgement on our part was reminded of the fact that Emre had scored for Newcastle that night.  He should have been reminded that Darren Bent is banging them in and was available for only £3M.  Sadly, in real life, you can’t just revert to Last Saved Game when things go wrong.  Also, players sometimes have all sorts of reasons for not wanting to sign for your club, not just a lack of ambition or decisiveness on your part.

Nonetheless, to some, the equation is simple.  Crap results = sack the manager.  End of.  Anybody who doesn’t agree with this is divorced from reality and their opinion doesn’t count.  To counter, I would say that some of the views I have read recently – particularly those referencing former great players as a reason to sack Moyes – have nothing whatsoever to do with reality. 

The quality of our football may not be up to the standard of the best teams, but whose is?  Wigan?  Newcastle?  Middlesbrough?  Or are most teams cancelling each other out, with only our current lack of pace and power in attack seeing us as inferior to most of our rivals?  Were all our 1-0 wins last season lucky, and all our defeats this year unlucky?  Or is it simply that there is such a fine margin between success and failure in the Premiership these days? Even Arsenal and Man Utd are struggling to rise above the pack this year, with Chelsea setting a benchmark nobody can come close to. 

With so much at stake, not losing is everybody’s first priority.  That’s reality.  Of the three teams mentioned above, Wigan are doing best at present.  Do they have better players than Newcastle or Middlesbrough?  Or are they better organised, with no star names blowing hot and cold and battling for ego space?  Are they simply on a roll, with no pressure, like we were last season?  Will their supporters’ expectations change if they continue to exceed expectations or will they just enjoy the ride for as long as it lasts?

Everton’s reality is that the club David Moyes inherited, just 3½  years ago, was — as Alan Partridge might describe it — moribund.  Crap team, growing debt, crippling wage bill, poor facilities, and heading for the trapdoor.  For those who slept through it all, here’s a few names to conjure with: Gerrard, Cleland, Tal, Gemmill, Pembridge, Linderoth, Alexandersson, Nyarko, Moore, Ginola (35 — years and wages) and Gascoigne (see Ginola, or thereabouts).  Plenty of pace, power and creativity there for all the purists.  Well, Gascoigne and Gemmill could thread a ball, shame they couldn’t run fast enough to get hold of it very often.  Sorry to be harsh on old Gazza, but that’s the reality.

What has really changed since then?  Poor facilities?  Definitely.  Crippling wage bill?  Growing debt?  Well, both situations have supposedly improved and we are, according to Keith Wyness, more stable than before.  I suspect David Moyes's ‘dithering’ has helped in this respect.  In reality, the only major financial development was the much-needed investment from the Rooney Sale Fund, all of which has been spent on new players.  (Sorry, rewind, it’s all Moyes’ fault — he can’t handle talented players.)  Crap team?  Hmm, well, it would seem so.  God knows how they finished 4^th last year — that nice Alan Green must have been right all along.

Mind you, we’ve had some terrible luck and the fates do seem to have conspired against us.  Just as it can be reasonably argued that we are suffering from not signing a striker in the summer, it can also be reasonably argued that Moyes has not yet been able to put out his strongest side.  The question is, when is it fair to judge David Moyes’s team?  When does the manager’s position become untenable?  Should the board act now and hope a new manager sparks a revival?  Or should they wait until everybody is fit and see what happens then?  Is it too late already?  Or were there glimmers of hope in our display against Chelsea and the chances created in the second half against Middlesbrough?  Is Andy van der Meyde the new Kanchelskis?  Or the new Jesper Blomqvist?

My view is that there is still sufficient time to turn things around, but there needs to be an improvement soon.  Certainly, it’s fair to say the next 7 or 8 games are crucial.  If you choose to sharpen your axe in the meantime, or even if your blade glistens in the sunlight, think very carefully about the consequences of sacking the manager.  How much of our current predicament is really his fault?  Bearing in mind what he inherited, how much could he really have done differently?  Would a less cautious approach in the transfer market over the last few years have seen us better or worse off?

In fact, why not put your manager of choice in David Moyes’s position in 2002, and think about how he would have gone about the job.  Can you honestly say, hand on heart,  that we would be DEFINITELY better off?  Be realistic though, and fully consider the position we were in when he took over.  Off the field, has it really changed that much?  Are there huge amounts of money available that Moyes was too indecisive to spend?  Or are we still juggling plates?

If you still think your man can do better, then think about what you expect the club’s ambitions to be under a new manager.  Will it be a continued policy of prudence and caution?  Or will we see a more cavalier, daring and riskier approach?  Will we be chasing the Champions League again, or is that unrealistic?  Will our new man be demanding big money to ‘get this club back where it belongs’?  Will he be a ‘realist’, telling us that without major investment the best we can hope for is mid table obscurity?

Or maybe, just maybe, your man will be a miracle worker, capable of taking a ‘crap’ squad full of ‘uncreative, one-paced tryers’ and take us back into Europe where, of course, we belong without breaking the bank.  Never forget, Nil Satis Nisi Optimum. 

Quite a motto to attempt to live up to.

One final thought, for now.  What if, and it’s just a hunch, the one man at the club truly striving for and believing in our motto is the man you want to replace?  Will we really be better off without him?  Is it all his fault, or a combination of circumstances, many of which are beyond his control?

Next time, I’ll look at these circumstances a little more closely and try to trace the route we have taken.  Be honest, can anyone really explain the rollercoaster ride we have both enjoyed and endured in equal measure under David Moyes?  Is he out of his depth or a victim of circumstances?  Is the answer to that really as clear cut as some of you think?

You can all come back now, I’m off.   

Rob Fox

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