The Mail Bag
A Bigger Result Than You Realise
Comments (31)
With Everton's good run of form since the Villa game in December, many people have been quoting the stand-out statistics from the run, such as 1 defeat in 18 games, only 7 goals conceded in those 18 games etc.
Of course, these are superb stats (although Yobo's return has unsettled the centre of defence recently), but there are a few less palatable ones that need addressing and make the match at Portsmouth tomorrow even more important than some may realise.
Our run of 6 home wins on the bounce and 7 wins and 2 draws from 9 games since the Villa defeat have masked our dip in away form:
- We have only 1 win in last 6 away games.
- We have not won an away League game for 12 weeks since Boro on Boxing Day.
- We have only scored 1 away League goal in the last 4 matches.
- We have scored only 3 goals in the last 6 league and cup games ? and one of those was at Macclesfield.
- We have only picked up 3 points from the last 12 available away from home.
With vital away games coming up at Villa and Chelsea, not to mention a neutral venue Cup tie where we'll be out-numbered by glory-hunting Man Utd fans, this Saturday represents the perfect opportunity to get that vital thing called MOMENTUM going again in our performances away from Goodison. The performances at Newcastle and Blackburn were uninspiring despite mitigating circumstances. Another winless visit to a team in the bottom 6 and even this usually optimistic Toffee cannot see us making the Top 4.
A must-win game.
Karl Masters, Posted 20/03/2009 at 07:48:28
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So - Jags back to centre back - fine.
But who plays RB? Guess it’s time to see how bad this Jacobsen fella really is!
Lars? Pip? or even Gosling?
Rodwell is also linked with CB these days..
I would go for Pip myself but realise he is playing awesome in the middle.
Taking into account a team?s last three results and what?s more taking into account their oppenents previous three games going into those fixtures I average into the mix the forth coming fixture with the ability of teams to play at home compared with the other teams ability to play away.
Everton have the 4th most likely win possibility with a swing in Everton?s favour of 0.97 compared to Arsenal?s 2.24 at Newcastle being the most certain.
Unfortunately, Liverpool will beat Villa, and Utd will draw at Fulham.
Wigan v Hull is the game to avoid as Hull have the swing in their favour of 0.08.
I?ll let you know how my accumalator bet of £1 returning £7,000 on all PL games come out on Monday.
Anyone wants in on all results (ok predictions), then I?ll take 20% of winnings!
Not the perfect outcome but I would take it.
Whether it's to do with his quotes to the Euro press and him saying that he will have to move on if doesn?t get any action. We know our beloved leader does not welcome quotes like that. .... or does he fall into the Per Krøldrup category?? A less expensive one at that.
At Pompey tomorrow I would be tempted to throw him in with Pip still in midfield and, if it does go horribly wrong, drop Pip back and bring Rodwell on to compensate in midfield.
You’ll have to wake me up on Monday to let me knowhow you got on. Going for a lie down after reading your post.
Given the matches the clubs involved have left I’d say fourth is a destinct possibility, provided we can keep hitting the onion bag, or at least keep players fit who might.
I feel for Joey Yobo, now out for a month, but it is inconceivable that Jags will not now get back to the centre. Personally I am delighted to see it and well in time before the games at Villa, Chelsea and Wembley.
As for RB, well there?s no way it will be Pip. Particularly with Mikel out, the captain is needed in the centre. My guess it?s down to Jacobsen or Gosling. The Goose clearly likes to attack, but can he defend? It should, in fairness, be Jacobsen. If he doesn?t play then Moyes must clearly think he?s shite.
The central group of Jags, Lescott & Howard has been badly disturbed recently. Having this little inner-team back together gives me more confidence. Now a question of our offensive game. If we get the win tomorrow then the pressure is on. But either way this is a 6-pointer weekend that could see us 1 point or 7 points off a CL place.
Whose bum will squeak first?
Nothing to do with loosing Fellaini, Arteta, Pienaar, Osman, Anichebe and Saha over the past few weeks then...
The clueless have got their wish: Jags, Joleon and Tim are together again, balance and fluency will be immediately restored... You sure?
Everyone is entitled to an opinion but that's abject stupidity. Let's hear your team for tomorrow NOW, because I?m sick of you people whining about the selection, WHATEVER IT IS, without offering a decent alternative.
In fact statistics are like a lampost to a drunk ? More for leaning on (or pissing on for that matter) than for illumination.
Gozza Jagzy Lezza Bainzy
Ozzie T?neville Cahill Pee-Nuts
Fellaini
Jo
Saha on at half time for Fellaini/Jo/Cahill as needed.
Big Rodwell ready to come in if Gozza doesn't work (shift Pip to right back or stick Rodders at right back or take off a more attacking midfielder to give the defence more protection).
Rodwell can also come on to give Cahill a rest if it all goes well and we are cruising.
You asked, Dave!
At least you have the balls to offer your team up, rather than just bitch about the selection, whatever it is...
Neville Jags Lescott Baines
Gosling Rodwell Fellaini Pienaar
Cahill
Jo
Saha on 2nd half if still 0-0.
Looks good to me ? what we worried about?
Howard
Jags, Lescott, Baines
Ozzie, Cahill, Pip, Screech, Peanuts
Saha, Jo.
Dave Wilson - The debate about moving Jags was not necessarily about unbalancing the whole team, just the defence.
Howard
Lars, Jags, Lescott, Baines
Ossie, Cahill, Neville, Peanuts
Fellaini
Jo
Saha and Rodwell to come on if things are not working out. Water under bridge now re Jags at RB and Yobo out injured. Time for Lars to follow the rest of the squad and stand up and be counted when asked.
COYB
Howard
Neville Jagielka Lescott Baines
Osman Rodwell Cahill Pienaar
Fellaini
Jo
Jacobsen would come in at right back and Neville in the middle if Cahill is not fit to start.
However, so much of football is about habits and we haven’t had that winning habit AWAY from home for a while now. The point I was making was that to make the Top 4 we will need to do better away from home as well as at Goodison.
Like I said, I am usually an optimist on matters Evertonia ( on the pitch anyway ) and I think we’ll get that win at Fratton Park - probably with a 1-0 Osman deflected shot or similar, but with all the injuries that will do for me. COYB!
Moyes warns Jacobsen on Tuesday to be ready, as he might have a important role to play between now and the end of the season.
Yobo’s injury announced today.
As I don’t believe in coincidences I reckon Lars is in, as per my team selection above.
Jacobsen 50/1 to score first goal on Skybet.
COYB
If its just the defence we’re talking about, how come the whiners keep referring to the dropped points against Newcastle and Blackburn ? we kept clean sheets in those games, and they cant whine about the others, because we actually won them.
Anyway they’ve got what they wanted Jags will be central tomorrow.
You’ll notice none of them will name there own side, that would require some thought and besides if DM names the same team as them what will they moan about.?
Just you listen to the howls of protest when Moysee names Pip right back tomorrow
Our major defensive problem lies upfield on the flanks where opponents target the frailty of Osman and Pienaar. I wish we had midfielders with the skill of Osman and the size and power of, er, just about anyone you care to mention.
In a few games where we have managed to apply sustained pressure, his defensive qualities have helped by winning the ball back before we have had to retreat.
I like him in congested areas too. He seems to have the skill and speed (of thought and foot) to keep the ball and also to win it back.
Maybe part of your criticism would be that he has given the ball away more than he used to since he came back from injury. Could be a fair point. I tend to forgive him cos he makes the effort (often succesfully) to win the ball back and recover the situation.
Anyway, just interested to hear your thoughts.
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