The Mail Bag
4th Place ? Pipe Dream or Possibility?
Comments (35)
After the Wigan game I reflected what might have been if we had faired better against Blackburn and Portsmouth recently. I think those two performances came on the back of injuries and heavy legs. The team looked jaded. Looking at not only the result on Sunday but how we played, it was clear that we finished the game with ease and really at a canter.
So could 4th actually happen?
When I first thought of this I immediately dismissed the thought as a pipe dream. After all, consider; could we be caught by West Ham? The thought doesn?t even come into my mind. But they are 7 points behind us. We are 7 points behind Arsenal. So how can we dream of 4th place when we are not out of sight from those behind us?
And then I looked a little bit further into it??..
West Ham are only 7 points behind us. But they have a very difficult run in, including us (at Goodison), Villa, Chelsea and RS. They will drop a lot of points before the season is out. So, in my opinion 4th, 5th and 6th is between Everton, Arsenal and Villa.
Arsenal Fixtures:-
Wigan (A)
Liverpool (A)
Middlesbrough (H)
Portsmouth (A)
Chelsea (H)
Man Utd (A)
Stoke City (H)
Aston Villa Fixtures:-
Everton (H)
West Ham (H)
Bolton (A)
Hull City (H)
Fulham (A)
Middlesbrough (A)
Newcastle Utd (H)
Everton Fixtures:-
Aston Villa (A)
Chelsea (A)
Man City (H)
Sunderland (A)
Tottenham (H)
West Ham (H)
Fulham (A)
<p>
Arsenal have very ?losable? games to play. Most notably against Liverpool,
Chelsea and Man Utd. In fact we could say that they only have ONE banker win
against Boro at home. We on the other hand have at least THREE banker wins.
Villa, who looked good against Man Utd, have an easier run in. But we have to
say that they are a very unpredictable team. Consistency is something they have
found hard to come by in recent weeks.
<p>
It is interesting to see that Arsenal have the most difficult run in. They will
also have the Champions League to occupy them as well. From our own point of
view, if we beat Villa and Arsenal were to lose away to Wigan that would
undoubtedly put us in pole position (given Arsenal?s trip?s to Anfield & Old
Trafford).
<p>
It?s a long shot. So was the horse that won the Grand National.
Dare we dream?
COYBB?s
Barry Sherlock, Posted 06/04/2009 at 11:48:13
Comments
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We?ve got a massive game against Villa next week before our biggest game of the season at Wembley. If we win both of those I?ll join you in a dream or two!
Even being optimisic, the max I can see us picking up is 16 points (assuming we lose at Chelski and draw with either Villa or Fulham but win the rest), but that would mean Arsenal would need to take just 9 points from the remaining 7 AND we claw back 10 extra goals OR just 8 points. As they can (and will) have a go at the top 3 as well as the lower teams I just don?t see this.
If we can overhaul Villa (who played very well vs Utd on Sunday) and give it our absolute best shot against Utd at Wembley then I?ll be happy with the season?s progress.
If we could secure another Wembley trip and actually lift the tin pot I?d be over the moon and actually I?d take that over 4th any day. COYB!
Right now my preference is to go all out for 5th (more prize money, one less qualifying round) and the FA Cup...I would love for us to beat Utd and then beat either Arsenal or Chelsea in the final.....not easy by any stretch but it would be fantastic!!
The question I would ask is that if we did finish 4th and qualified for the Champions League.....how does everybody think we’d do in that competition? Would it make sense (if "choice" had anything to do with it) to do one more season in the Europa and then try the Champions League?
I would much rather get 4th and have the chance of getting Champions League money to build a squad, even if we came bottom of the group which I don't think we would.
If Liverpool can reach the finals every season then we have a chance. One game at a time tho, there's a long way to go, 5th is next priority and beating Villa in the proccess.
I think we are still the best of the rest and Villa are a close 2nd just ahead of other teams like West Ham, Fulham and Wigan.
Oh well, all ifs and buts :)
4. Arsenal 71
5. Everton 66
6. Villa 65
You’re right on finishing 5th getting more prize money then 6th. But for Europa, both 5th and 6th team come in at the 4th qualifying round, while the 7th come in at the 3rd.
A) Pipe-dream.
The management have been let off the hook due to the commitment of the players who have played out of their skins especially the defence who have been tremendous. If we hang on to 6th I will be delighted, 5th would be miraculous but 4th can be forgotten I reckon...
Villa are still playing well and will bounce back, but hopefully not against us... I think Carew is a real handful for any defence and I just hope we can stop him.
They are human and facing the biggest game of the season in just under two weeks time.There will be a lot of half-hearted challenges on Sunday to avoid injury. I hope I am wrong and we stuff Villa (who looked very good against ManUre)
Onwards and upwards lads.
As Lee Smith says, it?s all what ifs and buts. It?s all speculation, but it?ll certainly be an entertaining 7 weeks. I feel though we will pass Villa and take at least 5th we?ll sit right behind Arsenal waiting for them to slip up one time too many.
Add that to our FA Cup final win and it?ll be a pretty ok season... COYB!!
We finish 4th ahead of Arsenal and they win the European Cup!
I did think about that situation but instead of thinking negatively I decided to re-write our club moto;
Nil Satis Nisi Optimist!
http://williamhill.optasportsdata.com/flash/williamhill/html_php/index_mpl_williamhill.html
You’ll notice that Tony Hibbert’s pass completion rate wa something like 82% - second only to Leon Osman.
Awesome!
Phil Neville was up there too.
We NEVER win there.
But Martin makes a very good point above. Even if we finish 4th, how would we fair against the elite of europe? Judging by the standard of our domestic ?elite?, we are still quite far behind in terms of quality and depth.
But nevertheless, if we got to the group stages, the cash and raising of profile could not do us any harm. And sometimes dreams do come true (Porto 2004)
I think we are all guilty of over analysing sometimes. In that some of thought the Portsmouth result signalled ?the wheels have fallen off?. I can understand why some people still think that we are a terribly managed and run club, as sometimes there is evidence to suggest so. But I am surprised that even still, people cannot see the positive elements of the Board and Staff far outweigh the negative aspects. But, each to their own. Coming up trumps when the chips are down is a part of my personality, so Everton is a perfect fit. Victory always seems to be so much sweeter, when you are doubted.
For me, right now I can see a bright future for this football club. It seems the foundations are set, and we have stability and vision. But this is the make or break time. I think we are peaking in terms of how successful we can be, with the current financial restraints. How we bridge the next gap is the million dollar question, but the facts are the facts.
The only teams in the world who consistently push for top honours, have the most money. Without an investor on the horizon, and football not being labelled as a ?buy buy buy? investment currently, it's hard to see how we can breach. But unless we believe we can do it, then as mentioned earlier by someone, we might as well pack our bags now and close the club down. I have faith that our current board and staff are the ones to take us forward.
Until their great recent run, Arsenal have had a funny season - great results against teams like Man Utd, but often going AWOL against weaker opposition. They’re obviously capable of winning the big games, it’s just a question of which Arsenal turn up on the day.
We lost 4th place when we conceded that last minute goal to Arsenal.
Arsenal have been missing big players all season and now they’re almost all coming back. Arsenal are capable of beating anybody on their day, home or away. Sure they could be distracted by the CL and FA cup, but I just cant see Arsenal losing 7 points to us.
Had we beaten them (as we deserved to) and taken just a few more points from away games we really should have (Newcastle, Blackburn, Pompey - 2 points out of 9) then different story. Likewise with Villa at home.
But whatever happens, it’s great that there’s so much to play for with just a few games left. If it all went our way (like, when did that happen?) then we could hit the jackpot with the FA cup and 4th, but 6th isn’t that bad, and 5th looks more likely.
I think you’re in the heart/head zone Barry. But it’s never over till it’s over, so let’s get behind the boys and try to go for it in every game. We all know how badly we tend to finish seasons under Moyesy (did you see that league table in the weekend’s Independent for last 8 games in last 5 years!! - we are rubbish). So there’s a few things that need to be broken in the next 6 weeks.
One last thing - did all the Osman slagger-offers see what Moyes said? i.e. that Osman has not been able to train for 2 consecutive days all season due to his injury. I’m not his biggest fan, but fans sometmes don’t see the whole story. Likewise the Felaini bashers. Both boys showed just what they can do on Saturday, and Wigan are no pushovers these days. That, in particular, might just bode well for our run-in.
I am in the heart/head zone.
I just can’t help thinking little things are starting to go our way. Arsenal lost Gallas and Almunia in the week. You could say that the pendulum is starting to swing our way....
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1 Posted 06/04/2009 at 20:20:32
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