Those are hard facts to encourage any Evertonian. Everton had just 19 points in first 18 games — as we all remember...

Yeh right! We struggle to beat Fulham reserves and have the likes of Yakubu and Hibbert in the side. Top 4 — you must be joking.

Gareth - Good post.

Responding to your 3 things:

1. Would add, that's us right below the indisputed 2 top teams this year, fighting their hearts out to be #1 (and during that fight losing to EFC).

2. Agree. I think the top 10 EPL today would make a powerful league of its own. Your #2 point also highlights the single leap (injury aside) critical to our raising the Cup this time next season. We have to finish teams off. Within the 19 game sample you used, if the final score was indicative of which team controlled play, we'd be at 49 or 50 points, not 39.

3. I just go along with you and everyone else in here about the RS. I came over with Landon. Now that means I'm 100% the Blues. But if within the bigger context of winning whoever we play, whipping the RS comes first? I'm with it. But where I'm from the word Liverpool doesn't mean some great soccer team or the enemy, just means the Beatles. Anyway, all my focus and desire is on EFC winning.

For the rest, and using your facts here as my proof, damn right we challenge for the League title. Damn right. I'm not getting this "We can get Top 4" quite a bit here, but so little "We can win the whole thing". Huh? If you're good enough for the former, you're good enough for the latter. And we are. Next season's going to be fantastic for us.

Look, I understand people's pessimism, cautious optimism, or "realism" where EFC is concerned. I'm new here but a lifelong multi-sport fan in America. Point being, I know well what it is to put your heart into a team and have it broken. It's happened to me too many times in several different sports. Then have to get over it (although you never really do) and find a way to be positive again about the team. I get it 100%

But I came over here basically in this 19 game sample you use Gareth. What I've seen is a multi-talented side, well-led, that needs good health and time to play together without the coming and going uncertainty of major injury. They've had a pretty good run this half-season and know very, very well they're play is not reflected in the standings because of not putting teams to the sword after controlling play.

I believe firmly that our guys know:
A. They're as good as any.

B. They can win it all next season.

C. Moyes knows.

D. We know.

Screw hoping for CL crumbs that fall off the table (however large the crumbs be) that 4th place brings. If 4th is all we have in April 2011, the season will be just OK. A disappointment, really. We can win the whole thing.

James -
Your optimism is outstanding. I too "came over" about 3 years ago and haven't missed but 1 or 2 games. I was also very optimistic in the beginning. Probably just the excitment that inevitably occurs when you see how passionate the "native" fans are. But you have to understand the cautiousness and near-pessimism with the life-long fan.

In just 3 years I've come to understand this. I liken it to the Red Sox. Until they actually won all the optimism was tempered with a "show me something first you've broke my heart" approach. Everton is very similar.

There's talent, but there's always an X factor: ground move, injuries, inexplicable managerial moves and sustitutions, lack of funds, etc.

I can't speak for these lifers, but stick around long enough and you'll better understand their frustrations. I have them, and I am definably a pup in this group. Imagine years and years of witnessing near chances and some pretty bleak times. Again, think Red Sox before 2004 and you get a better picture.

Also - bear in mind that the posters on this site and most Everton fans know this game much better than you or I. They can see things within the team, the course of play, the overall picture, that we don't. Their insight, having been born and bred into this Club and culture, is far superior to any eyes of a newbie. When they point out squad depth, tactics, et al, they see possibly what you or I can not. So when they say we've not got a chance of taking the title bluntly, they probably have about 1000 well-founded reasons why we won't win the title, but don't dive into a 100 page perspectus regarding why in a post. Think of the Jets. A new Jet fan coming on the scene not following the NFL could easliy say, "we're gonna win it all next season." You and I could tear them to ribbons and site multiple reasons why they won't. On the outside, or just coming in, you see a team on the up with a great quarterback and coach and a lot of positives. But their linebacker core is average, and the secondary can be split like a post.... Same idea here. Substitute Everton for the Jets and the EPL knowledge of a Brit, Scot, or Irishman for an American and the NFL knowledge he/she posseses - darn near the same thing in this instance.

Keep the optimism, but also understand that climbing that mountain isn't that easy.

Just ask anyone of the regular posters and realize they generally are extremely knowledgable and know what they're talking about.

Your overall optimism is right on the mark though IMO. There's a lot to be optimistic about. Just pray it doesn't get fucked up before early August.... it might.

Finally - welcome! Nice to see another American in the fold. Proliferation of the fan base is what the Club needs.

Longest post ever..... sorry.

Jamie - Appreciate the response. I was wondering if an American would come in on my Red Sox' fan comparison. As a Yankee fan, I was really just comparing some here's sprint to "Why we can't" and "This will go wrong" to the well-established and known Sox fan's inclination to do the same, no matter the circumstance.

As far as life-long fans of the game? I don't watch EFC or post anything here without knowing most everyone reading it understands the intricacies and minutiae of soccer better than I. It wouldn't occur to me to dispute this mis-hit or that defensive error.

What I do know is when I'm looking at a talented team doing well; soccer or any other sport. It shows. That's EFC in 2010. I'm not one for that "If only" stuff. Injuries killed the season and that's that. Have to add our inability in 2010 to finish off lesser teams we outplayed. Anyway, Gareth posted simple facts; points won over the last 1/2 season. Simple numbers no one can deny. We're right there.

Do most everyone here know better the ins and outs of the game than I or you? Fine. Doesn't bother me and I enjoy reading the comments. Learn a thing or two. But I know plenty enough about top-flight athletic competition to say Everton can being lifting the trophy this time next year. Hard to do in the EPL? But if ManU, Chelsea, etc have legitimate aspirations (and they do), so do we. That much I know for sure.

James and Jamie. The is no reason you are not correct.

I think too many of us might not be able to see the wood for the trees and use our 'istory as a crutch that tends to slow us down (negative baggage ) rather than as positive baggage, sit on the big comfy suitcase and enjoy the ride down The Cresta run that is EFC.

When you see something or some one every day you don't notice the changes. dig out an old photo, 10yrs is enough and see.

Ronaldo and Abramovich have come and in one case gone. The credit crunch.

Things have changed in FIVE yrs.

We did the top 4 thing then, with less, against better.

Mind, you can still take example from History, because although Football has changed in some respects, some things remain. A look on vimeo at the 67 - 68 game Vs Untd. will show us playing them off the park with a manner and commitment very familiar of some games this season. Yet they went on to win the European cup and we didn't win the title until 2 seasons later.

It is still somewhat of a lottery.

Each time the season starts it's a new one, it's Us against them.

We may have memory of History, but History has no memory.

Spin the wheel and let the ball land where it will. We are all at the table and somebody has to win.

So WHY NOT US!!??

Its nice to see two Americans showing appreciation for Everton and their fans! I hope its a growing tradition.

I'm a lifelong Evertonian, runs through my family and my father has the biggest mood swings dependent on the Everton result. If Everton win we can win it all, if we lose we're down, relegated.

I'm fairly optimistic but growing up at school I was just happy if we took points of Liverpool and didn't go down!

Now I'm thinking that Everton has done well over the last 19 games but they themselves are disappointed with a lot of the results that we know we coulda, shoulda won. We've also had a little luck recently but overall we've played well and deserved the results.

It is optimistic to suggest that we will continue in this vain as we would need to retain the current squad and hopefully be able to improve (get Landon full-time). We would also need to keep our big players fit.

I'm excited about the prospect of seeing our strongest team on paper which I believe has Fallaini, Arteta and Cahill in the middle supporting either the Yak or Saha whoever is on fire. Then having Jags play alongside Heitiga at the back, hopefully they can click and play from the back. I'm very happy with this backbone.

If you had Landon(hopefully) or a rested on fire Bilyladinov on one side and Pienaar on the other it has me very excited and I wouldn't swop this team for any outside the top two!

You look at Wolfsburg in Germany last year and they came from nowhere the year before to win the league in style.

Here's hoping for an English version!

Just so long as you know James that Everton were the first team in Liverpool and Paul McCartney is an Evertonian! ;-)

Facts speak for themselves. Whether you are an optimist or not the numbers are the numbers. So if we can strengthen our squad with two or three more substantive players, then the facts say that yes we should expect to challenge for a top four spot.
Additionally the extra time and space that our non european status allows us next year is a benefit toward this endeavour, so let's hope there's no 'intertoto' madness

Facts speak for themselves. Whether you are an optimist or not the numbers are the numbers. So if we can strengthen our squad with two or three more substantive players, then the facts say that yes we should expect to challenge for a top four spot.
Additionally the extra time and space that our non european status allows us next year is a benefit toward this endeavour, so let's hope there's no 'intertoto' madness

Not to be a wet blanket, but the only problem with this is that Chelsea, Spurs, City and maybe Villa will have significant cash to try to improve their squads in the summer, which we likely won't. We're also still some way behind Chelsea and United in terms of overall squad strength/depth, even if the gap is closing.

Just to keep pace with the teams around us we're going to have to hang onto our current team and hope that all of our key players stay fit for most of next seaston, particularly Arteta since we are unable to pass the ball without him in the team.

If we're going to overtake City and Spurs next season, we're probably going to have to hope they pick up some injuries or that their new signings don't come off.

Not playing in Europe will help keep our squad fresh though, so that could help (assuming we can keep hold of Pienaar et al in the summer). So maybe we'll be able to go on a good run of form early on and build some momentum. Definitely reasons to be optimistic.

At least Liverpool are likely to struggle - I can't see them finishing above 6th unless they bring in Mourinho and hang onto Torres. Definitely going to be an interesting season.

Almost before a ball was kicked, I wrote that it would be a good season for us if we finished 8th. I made this assertion on the basis that our signings had, by necessity, been modest and Villa, Spurs and Man City looked set to overtake us. That was before we suffered our worst injury crisis in many years. That Moyes was able to stabilise the ship and almost certainly claim that 8th place says volumes for his skill as a manager and the character he has built into the side.

Are we capable of improving on this? Without investment, I doubt it... but I for one am happy that we continue to punch above our weight and occasionally deal a knock-out blow to one of the big fellas!

James & Jamie; welcome to the fold, you're right sometimes we put up imaginary barriers which just need smashing down. Next year we can go into the season knowing that we can comprehensively beat Chelsea, Man Utd and City and should be beating LFC, Villa and Spurs home and away. Makes for an interesting season.

Gareth; I love a bit of hard stats and our sequence screams what the problem is — too many draws!!! That's whats killed us. Convert half of those draws into wins and we win the second half of the season by 3 points.

All the more reason to attack sides, that's what we did to get our stand-out results last season — all the more reason to buy Donovan if possible and a quality goalscorer too.

COYB.

I think that if we sign the right player to play out wide on the right for us next season, possibly Donovan or someone similar with pace and trickery and a goal in 'em, then we can be serious challengers to the top four because, when fully fit, our first eleven is a very good one on paper and I'm sure it will be even better when we get going in August!.

With a bit of luck, a good start and no serious and lengthy injuries, we can sustain some form and give the top four a real good go IMHO.

I believe that if we just keep our current squad together we will definately challenge for top 4 next season.

If we can add Donavan (or quick winger) along with a striker that can guarrantee 20+ goals then we could yet keep the 24 year cycle going. However this would cost in the region of 20-25m, money that we will not have unless we get investment (!!!) or sell one of our stars.

The big question for me is should we sacrafice our young, talented and sought after star Rodwell to fund the signing of the two players required above ? That for me is the debate and I'm not sure which way I would go but it is worth considering, particularly as Jack does not get anywhere near our first choice side at the moment.....

Yeah agree Mike it's a really difficult queston about Rodwell. He's behind Fella, Arteta, Cahill and even Heitinga in centre midfield and that's not likely to change for a couple of years at least. I think Rodwell would be wasted in defense, but even there he's behind Jags and Heitinga at the minimum. I think selling him would depend on how much we could get for him though.

If we could seriously get £25m or so as has been floated about, it would be hard to turn down. While he's a fine and very promising young player, I don't know if given the makeup of our squad we can afford the luxury of having all that value on the bench for most of our games. It's so important that we get in a top quality winger and probably another good striker that I might be prepared to see Rodwell go in order to get them. Really tough call though, and would be a big loss.

Don't agree with selling Rodwell, full stop. That would send out the wrong message.

The stats above speak for themselves. We can challenge the top 4, but wont compete for the title. This is our best run ever in the Premier League and we are not top of the pile.

We need to walk before we can run. I for one, would be delighted with a strong challenge for the top 4 and a cup.

At the moment? No were not. End of story.

Liam / Ciaran,

I am not saying I disagree with you, in fact in ways I agree with both of you — I don't want to sell Rodwell and I don't think we are capable of a title challenge with the current squad.

However, my point was we are presently in a position where £20-25m MIGHT be enough to improve the squad sufficiently to enable a title challenge next season.

Now if the Chelseas, Man Utds and Arsenals value Rodwell that highly is it not worth consideration? If we were blessed with a relatively injury free season (improbable I know), then Rodwell would hardly play and may not even be on the bench — as such, would it not represent good business to make do a deal that would enable us to strengthen areas that are required.

They are just my thoughts, as I say I do see your side of the argument.

I think we need to be more concerned about keeping our English players, or homegrown as the new rule coming in next season states. As the listed squad of 25 must have 8 homegrown players in it, simple maths dictates there is a maximum number of 17 non homegrown players allowed. Chelsea are on the limit with 17 recognisable names, with the Shite (18) and Arsenal (20), so expect these teams to have to shed a foreigner or two and try to bring in homegrown players.

And the stats do indeed speak for themselves. Over a specified half of the season, we are third, despite continuing to suffer injuries (a more realistic level of them, one might add) and, in the eyes of most Evertonians, dropping several points along the way (in every game we've dropped points in, it could be argued that we deserved better, with the possible exceptions of Shite away and West Ham at home). In short, if we are able to continue this form into next season, we will challenge for top 4; if we can improve and take the points we have been dropping, we can challenge for the title.

Our American cousins, it might be argued, have a better viewpoint, since it is not poisoned by years of letdown. They have nothing to compare to, so view it as it is, that since the turn of the year, we have been up there with the best in a very tight group of 8 teams. And playing great football to boot. I see no reason why this cannot continue. I see no reason why we wouldn't be due one of those seasons where the word injury is unheard of. I see no reason to not get excited at seeing Jagielka, Heitinga, Fellaini & Arteta ruling the middle of the park on a weekly basis.

Of course, we have a pre season to get through first and we don't seem to be good at them. Why, I don't know. But get that right this season, and all that really involves is getting everyone fit and raring to go, and hopefully being able to add one or two players if it adds to the squad we've got, and I don't see why we can't achieve similar or better from the first 19 games of next season as we've seen from the last 19 games. Does that make us title contenders? Well, a season lasts 38 games, but stranger things have happened, and then there's the 24 year rule...

Stewart,

Homegrown has got nothing to do with being English.

Otherwise it would be illegal.

Impressive stats which include some great results but too many times in the past few months we bottled it when it mattered; a draw when a win would put us right in the mix; dropped points against Shite, Villa, Spurs. Simple fact is those above us have collected more points than us, including points off us. Only obvious exception is Man City. Beating Man U and Chelsea is a great sign but only got us close to the European places. When that was in touch we blew it.

Lies damn lies and statistics..

In short could we be title contenders over a season with our current squad or even with one new first team player. No.

And also for all the points we have blown, we are in the top 2 for points gained from a losing position. Our season was hugely hampered by the start but even with a better start I think we are too far off the current top3.

I think next season we can challenge for 4th. I don't think anyone should expect we finish there but I think we will be in the same group, hopefully we can bring in a new player who can be a starter, preferably right sided Mr Moyes, and keep the progress we have.

Hmmm... it's hard to say. I mean we finished 4th with a lot worse squad. But saying that, City, Spurs and Villa have had a lot better squads.

I think we can challenge for 4th. I think this season shows we are capable. The first team is as good as any of those teams I have mentioned.

Just hopefully better luck with injuries and no unnecessary drama we have a chance.

Ian (8) - Ha. OK. Learning new things all the time.

I think we need to be careful of stats, only because they can be misleading. In our case, the reason for the sustained effort imo, is because the season for us did not start until way after the horses bolted, the fact we had to field kids (academy players) etc.

We get our injured players back and for most of them they haven't even reached half a season let alone the full season.

Next season , if we are serious about running for the league title, a number of things need to happen, such as a massive cash injection. The teams above us are light years in front of us, ie Man U and Chelsea,


Davie Turner - you got it spot on, we should be challenging for 4th, and no one really expecting us to finish there.
Id go further and say it should be the minimal position we need to finish in, since we have no europe next season, and as it stands lets face it, europa wont get us anywhere but even more games.

Lets make a concerted effort to finish 4th or even dare say 3rd, we need champions league money every season, not pointless extra games in the laughable europa league.

Each season we should be aiming to get into the champs league, make money, improve squad and making more and more progress, sadly I honestly can't see this happening until such time as we have the money to buy a bigger squad, better replacement players.

Paul Oakes - Good post.

That over seasons money makes the difference when it's your well-run side vs my well-run side and your pockets are full while mine are to let? Often true. Not an absolute of success, though.

You say 4th and maybe 3rd with luck. I agree with the luck part. I'd add, luck + we HAVE to take the 3 points when we've clearly controlled the game. That considered, your 3rd or 4th is the same as my "If Top 4, then the damn League Trophy", expressed another way. We're good enough to win it all.