Season 2011-12
The Mail Bag
The value of goals
I remember an interview with Alex Ferguson and he commented along the lines of:
"I look at each player and know how many each one will score for me, and I know roughly how many we will concede. I can see us scoring 90 and conceding 35 and that's enough for the title most of the time."
Looking at our own Goal Difference this season a few things stood out: ours was +10; Spurs and Arsenal were +25; we scored 50 and conceded 40.
At the start of the season, we weren't scoring and we conceded a lot of sloppy goals until Heitinga came in for Jagielka.
If we carry on in a similar way to how we finished, is it reasonable to expect another 10 goals on top of that next season?
Also, we're very solid defensively now. Can we expect us to concede 10 less?
If that happened we would have a GD of +30. That would be second only to the septic tanks... Who knows where that could take us?
Is it pie in the sky or ? with a lucky run and few injuries ? could it happen?
Stephen Kenny, Posted 19/05/2012 at 13:43:45
Comments
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172 Posted 19/05/2012 at 15:55:20
Watch this space...
173 Posted 19/05/2012 at 15:48:34
Usually the better the goal difference the more points you have which is another reason I want to see us attack more not just for entertainment value and now we have a goal scorer we should be looking to give him as many oppotunities to score as possible even if it means were not as tight at the back.I honestly think we would have finished with more points if we had gone for the kill and looked to finish teams off especially at home (obviously i'm talking more about the first half the season).For me Moyes needs stop being as cautious than he usually is and we'll reap the benefits.
198 Posted 19/05/2012 at 17:32:52
Don't let us down, Mr Moyes, resist the temptation to go defensive again.
218 Posted 19/05/2012 at 19:15:39
One season we were being called Arsenal light.
So I don't hold hope that it is a mindset change from Moyes. His attacking intent is very dependent on him feeling confident in the team. When he loses one or 2 then we revert to type. If we don't land Pienaar I think we'll regress quickly.
230 Posted 19/05/2012 at 20:40:11
It'll be an interesting 1st half of the season come August
233 Posted 19/05/2012 at 20:47:05
Thats what I dont understand though.If he had no confidence in the teams ability to score then isnt that even more reason to attack.
If we had strikers that couldnt hit a barn door then playing defensively and expecting them to score of the handfull of chances created is unrealistic.
A bit like this boring final now,cant believe how Chelsea are playing,its like us away to City.
237 Posted 19/05/2012 at 20:54:05
As it happens there were 18 hole on that golf course and I remember fluffing at least one shot on every hole so if I replayed the round I would not do mso again. My score was now down to 82 net.
Deep down I knew I could do better by at least a shot a hole especially on the par 5s wher there was a possiblity of getting eagles. So to be fair I only considered saving another 18 shots - of course, you understand, it could be a lot more.
So to be perfectrly fair and honest with myself I knew deep down that I was now playing to 64 net - which, as this course I was on was only apar three pitch and putt was still TEN OVER PAR.
I used to turn over quite pleased with my night's work - safe in the knowledge that I had cracked it - in fact there was no need for all those clubs that I carried around - all I needed was a seven iron and a putter and a couple of dozen balls.
Job done. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
240 Posted 19/05/2012 at 21:50:45
Whatever helps ya sleep mate. What's that got to do with football?
242 Posted 19/05/2012 at 22:25:55
243 Posted 19/05/2012 at 22:32:30
244 Posted 19/05/2012 at 22:33:35
247 Posted 19/05/2012 at 22:38:23
248 Posted 19/05/2012 at 22:39:58
And we wont play good football without creative players. No surprise we massively improved when Pienarr and Donovan came, and that the former was our most infuencial player.
254 Posted 19/05/2012 at 22:51:45
Right back at him in what appeared to be fluent German.
Not just a 'Ja' or a 'nein' either, the full "köllergrossenflachemüllerhackenstrassekroch.." etc
261 Posted 19/05/2012 at 23:06:03
Di Matteo is Swiss even though he has an Italian name and played for them.
265 Posted 19/05/2012 at 23:17:05
Chelsea didnt win it was a draw thats why penalties were needed.
268 Posted 19/05/2012 at 23:20:40
Why argument about something so pointless, are you bored? or procrastinating on toffeeweb like me?
272 Posted 19/05/2012 at 23:28:39
You wound me up so I thought i'd argue for the sake of it.
275 Posted 19/05/2012 at 23:27:05
Trophies... I think I can just about remember how good it feels.
276 Posted 19/05/2012 at 23:31:44
Sorry if I wound you up, I've got alot of work to do and a stressful week coming up, so not in the best of moods.
277 Posted 19/05/2012 at 23:33:21
The only problem, which I've just realised, is that the loss of Bale may induce them to hold onto Pienarr...
279 Posted 19/05/2012 at 23:35:25
I wouldnt worry about Spurs.. Do we ever 'dread' playing them ? Nah..
Bale was mustard two seasons ago, now, is he still the same player before his injury ? Maybe.. Barcelona bound ? Doubt it.
281 Posted 19/05/2012 at 23:45:43
I just wonder whether Spurs could potentially fall out of the top six. At the moment they have a great midfield which will always get them finishing higher than us. But if they lose a couple and re-invest wrongly, I think they could fall away. It's poor, but my hope of Everton progress can only come in the form of the regression of those above us until we get a buyer.
284 Posted 19/05/2012 at 23:52:20
A good start and we will be in business this year. We have a good first eleven.
294 Posted 20/05/2012 at 00:38:24
Heitinga needs to maintain his form next season, if so then our defence will be good.
The biggest problem we have is lack of wingers on both sides.
I can not see us doing anything good unless we get proper wingers.
We HAD them in Pienaar and Drenthe, but they are just loans.
Jelavic needs chances to score and he will not get them unless Moyes does something about it.
299 Posted 20/05/2012 at 01:05:29
"Heitinga needs to maintain form next season" ? Thanks for clearing that one up.
As for us being 'boring'... well tonights result may well effect our summer transfer policy / targets massively. Non-qualifying for Champions League etc...
Anyway, enough about all that; let's talk about Big Bad Rickie Drenthe for a bit... get back to proper 'interesting' stuff again.
321 Posted 20/05/2012 at 08:45:40
What's it got to do with football ?
Read your own article - Goals? Shots?
get it?
Metaphors for 'What if' - 'If only'
Remember your SAF scenario?
Ah well, perhaps not!
431 Posted 20/05/2012 at 16:52:11
I didnt catch that interview but if that is what he said doesnt it mean somthing like Fat, street crawling Hack ?
438 Posted 20/05/2012 at 17:02:43
We dont even know yet whether Distin will be retained for next season.
If we dont get a couple of decent players in in the close season Moyesy will start the season with a face like a dead kipper and as usual that will rub off on the players and the cycle will begin all over again.
We can only hope that this year is different.
511 Posted 20/05/2012 at 19:37:36
513 Posted 20/05/2012 at 19:40:27
Did he though,i've heard talk about a new contract for ages but not that he had signed.
516 Posted 20/05/2012 at 19:49:02
522 Posted 20/05/2012 at 19:39:41
Scoring defenders :-
Howard - 1
Baines - 4
Jagielka - 2
Heitinga - 1
Total - 8 goals by defenders
Scoring midfielders :-
Pienaar - 4
Osman- 4
Drenthe - 3
Fellaini - 3
Rodwell - 2
Cahill - 2
Areteta - 1
Gibson - 1
Gueye - 1
Total - 21 goals by midfielders/wide players
Scoring forwards :-
Jelavic - 9
Anichebe - 5
Velios - 3
Stracq - 1
Saha - 1
/>Total - 19 goals by forwards
.....and two own goals, making 50 league goals.
Now, call me the eternal optimist, but I'll back our team next season, and whichever players come and go, to beat this total.
This optimism is largely based on Jelavic staying, but also the likes of Gibson and Fellaini increasing their tallies markedly, as well as the likes of Barkley and our mystery newcomer !!
526 Posted 20/05/2012 at 20:21:13
Imagine if we had two clinical strikers ?
Jimmy, before you say it... Drenthe's 3 goals were the best though..
532 Posted 20/05/2012 at 20:24:38
Jelavic 20
Fellaini 8
Baines 5
Pienaar (hopefully) 4
Gibson 8
Osman 5
Rodwell 4
Jags 1
Distin 1
Heitinga 1
Victor 5
Cahill 5
That would probably put us around 4 to 5, assuming we can still keep it tight at the back. Gibson has goals in him. The last 2 might be optimistic.
533 Posted 20/05/2012 at 20:35:21
Will Jelly take the pens ?
534 Posted 20/05/2012 at 20:36:22
535 Posted 20/05/2012 at 20:38:37
Optimistic? If Anichebe even gets 5 games next season we're in trouble.
536 Posted 20/05/2012 at 20:41:02
538 Posted 20/05/2012 at 20:40:31
Yaks best season was 22, which jelavic looks capable of plundering. If it gives him the confidence let him take the pens as well.
540 Posted 20/05/2012 at 20:45:23
541 Posted 20/05/2012 at 20:46:48
543 Posted 20/05/2012 at 20:48:18
Please tell me that was sarcasm?
548 Posted 20/05/2012 at 20:35:49
You've omitted Velios from your list though, and I would hope that he's good for more game time next season, and so a few more goals, possibly 6 or 7.
Your total of 68 goals is setting the bar high. Should we reach this total, and keep our "goals against" to 40, a tally of "+28" would take us into the Top Four, all things being equal (both Arsenal in 3rd and Spurs in 4th had a +25 goals difference this season).
Since we don't yet know our personnel for next season, I'd set the targets as 30 for the strikers, 20 for the midfield/wide players, and 10 for the defenders. I don't see this as too steep.
Our centre backs should be scoring more than the 3 goals they got between them this season, given our better deliveries from corners and set pieces. (Oh, for a Mountfield from 84/85 !).
Similarly, A target of 20 from a midfield hopefully comprising Fellaini, Gibson and Pienaar, supplemented by Osman, Barkley, and Cahill, should be a target within reach.
And finally, 30 should be achievable by Jelavic (hopefully on his own !), along with Velios, Anichebe (please, stop that sniggering at the back !), and our mystery newcomer !
549 Posted 20/05/2012 at 20:49:31
Drogba is probably the most complete forward I have seen. Simply unplayable. Not just saying that after last night, but earlier in his time at Chelsea. I can remember seeing him for marseille before he signed for Chelsea and thinking if we could only find the money for him. Think he played liverpool and destroyed them in uefa cup.
554 Posted 20/05/2012 at 20:56:55
Didn't see Veron and Forlan scoring naff all though did he?
Bet he can't see the boot coming next season if they don't make up ground on City.
Perfect english speaking, charismatic, attack minded Guardiola will have finished his sabatical by then.
556 Posted 20/05/2012 at 21:20:55
Gibson likes to have a shot which we have been crying out since gravesen. Yes he's only scored 1, and I might be getting carried away, but i think he has goals in him.
560 Posted 20/05/2012 at 21:46:25
What worries me is the amount teams have around us to strengthen. RS will probably have another £30m, Spurs £20m (or more if they sell Bale or Modric) and possibly QPR, Villa, Sunderland and Newcastle will have around £15m
How much are we hoping for? £5-8m if we're lucky.
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170 Posted 19/05/2012 at 15:41:02