Season 2011-12
The Mail Bag
The value of goals
49 Comments: I remember an interview with Alex Ferguson and he commented along the lines of:
"I look at each player and know how many each one will score for me, and I know roughly how many we will concede. I can see us scoring 90 and conceding 35 and that's enough for the title most of the time."
Looking at our own Goal Difference this season a few things stood out: ours was +10; Spurs and Arsenal were +25; we scored 50 and conceded 40.
At the start of the season, we weren't scoring and we conceded a lot of sloppy goals until Heitinga came in for Jagielka.
If we carry on in a similar way to how we finished, is it reasonable to expect another 10 goals on top of that next season?
Also, we're very solid defensively now. Can we expect us to concede 10 less?
If that happened we would have a GD of +30. That would be second only to the septic tanks... Who knows where that could take us?
Is it pie in the sky or ? with a lucky run and few injuries ? could it happen?
Stephen Kenny, Posted 19/05/2012 at 13:43:45
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True Al, but all it will take is Pienaar, someone for the right wing (though it hasn't happened in the last ten years so why do I think it might happen now?) and possibly someone for the 'Cahill' position allowing Fellaini to play deeper (which is still where he's best despite decent recent performances further forward) and we've got a balanced squad capable of picking up where they left off. Maybe even the right noises from the club about Barkley playing more this year will do the job. Either way, we need something exciting (and a toy) to get a feel good factor going early on next season. Surely one of our directors can find a personal £5million to make that happen?
Watch this space...
Watch this space...
Scoring goals is harder than not conceding them,you can teach players how to defend in certain situations but a striker knowing when and where to make his runs,finding space and finishing is something you either have or you dont.
Usually the better the goal difference the more points you have which is another reason I want to see us attack more not just for entertainment value and now we have a goal scorer we should be looking to give him as many oppotunities to score as possible even if it means were not as tight at the back.I honestly think we would have finished with more points if we had gone for the kill and looked to finish teams off especially at home (obviously i'm talking more about the first half the season).For me Moyes needs stop being as cautious than he usually is and we'll reap the benefits.
Usually the better the goal difference the more points you have which is another reason I want to see us attack more not just for entertainment value and now we have a goal scorer we should be looking to give him as many oppotunities to score as possible even if it means were not as tight at the back.I honestly think we would have finished with more points if we had gone for the kill and looked to finish teams off especially at home (obviously i'm talking more about the first half the season).For me Moyes needs stop being as cautious than he usually is and we'll reap the benefits.
I get the feeling that Moyes might start being a bit more attack-minded after what he has seen we have played like in recent months. He has seen that it works and if we can score 4 at Old Trafford then we can score 4 anywhere!
Don't let us down, Mr Moyes, resist the temptation to go defensive again.
Don't let us down, Mr Moyes, resist the temptation to go defensive again.
We've had months of positive play in every season I remember for a while.
One season we were being called Arsenal light.
So I don't hold hope that it is a mindset change from Moyes. His attacking intent is very dependent on him feeling confident in the team. When he loses one or 2 then we revert to type. If we don't land Pienaar I think we'll regress quickly.
One season we were being called Arsenal light.
So I don't hold hope that it is a mindset change from Moyes. His attacking intent is very dependent on him feeling confident in the team. When he loses one or 2 then we revert to type. If we don't land Pienaar I think we'll regress quickly.
Could the more positive play havd anything to do with Jelovic? I should imagine that Moyes looks at his players and weighs them up the same way as SAF, and at the start of the season we didn't carry a goal threat, and set up his team accordingly.
It'll be an interesting 1st half of the season come August
It'll be an interesting 1st half of the season come August
David
Thats what I dont understand though.If he had no confidence in the teams ability to score then isnt that even more reason to attack.
If we had strikers that couldnt hit a barn door then playing defensively and expecting them to score of the handfull of chances created is unrealistic.
A bit like this boring final now,cant believe how Chelsea are playing,its like us away to City.
Thats what I dont understand though.If he had no confidence in the teams ability to score then isnt that even more reason to attack.
If we had strikers that couldnt hit a barn door then playing defensively and expecting them to score of the handfull of chances created is unrealistic.
A bit like this boring final now,cant believe how Chelsea are playing,its like us away to City.
When I started playing golf and scored 100 net I would go to bed and work out where I had dropped shots and where I could gain shots.
As it happens there were 18 hole on that golf course and I remember fluffing at least one shot on every hole so if I replayed the round I would not do mso again. My score was now down to 82 net.
Deep down I knew I could do better by at least a shot a hole especially on the par 5s wher there was a possiblity of getting eagles. So to be fair I only considered saving another 18 shots - of course, you understand, it could be a lot more.
So to be perfectrly fair and honest with myself I knew deep down that I was now playing to 64 net - which, as this course I was on was only apar three pitch and putt was still TEN OVER PAR.
I used to turn over quite pleased with my night's work - safe in the knowledge that I had cracked it - in fact there was no need for all those clubs that I carried around - all I needed was a seven iron and a putter and a couple of dozen balls.
Job done. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
As it happens there were 18 hole on that golf course and I remember fluffing at least one shot on every hole so if I replayed the round I would not do mso again. My score was now down to 82 net.
Deep down I knew I could do better by at least a shot a hole especially on the par 5s wher there was a possiblity of getting eagles. So to be fair I only considered saving another 18 shots - of course, you understand, it could be a lot more.
So to be perfectrly fair and honest with myself I knew deep down that I was now playing to 64 net - which, as this course I was on was only apar three pitch and putt was still TEN OVER PAR.
I used to turn over quite pleased with my night's work - safe in the knowledge that I had cracked it - in fact there was no need for all those clubs that I carried around - all I needed was a seven iron and a putter and a couple of dozen balls.
Job done. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Bob
Whatever helps ya sleep mate. What's that got to do with football?
Whatever helps ya sleep mate. What's that got to do with football?
Why am I shitting myself watching this peno shoot out when I dont about it.
Haha redknapp
Yeah i'm glad its fucked Spurs up but I dont like English clubs winning anything,they get further away from us when they do.
Same here Paul. I would love to see his face, like a st Bernard chasing a fly.
Well Chelski winning that proved the success of defensive football for inferor teams.
And we wont play good football without creative players. No surprise we massively improved when Pienarr and Donovan came, and that the former was our most infuencial player.
And we wont play good football without creative players. No surprise we massively improved when Pienarr and Donovan came, and that the former was our most infuencial player.
German interviewer (on German telly) just asked De Matteo something.
Right back at him in what appeared to be fluent German.
Not just a 'Ja' or a 'nein' either, the full "köllergrossenflachemüllerhackenstrassekroch.." etc
Right back at him in what appeared to be fluent German.
Not just a 'Ja' or a 'nein' either, the full "köllergrossenflachemüllerhackenstrassekroch.." etc
Eugene
Di Matteo is Swiss even though he has an Italian name and played for them.
Di Matteo is Swiss even though he has an Italian name and played for them.
Jim
Chelsea didnt win it was a draw thats why penalties were needed.
Chelsea didnt win it was a draw thats why penalties were needed.
Paul: Chelsea won the Champions league Final. In a game with extra time, penalties defines the win; hence why their name is on the trophy.
Why argument about something so pointless, are you bored? or procrastinating on toffeeweb like me?
Why argument about something so pointless, are you bored? or procrastinating on toffeeweb like me?
Jim
You wound me up so I thought i'd argue for the sake of it.
You wound me up so I thought i'd argue for the sake of it.
Well done Chelsea.. beating Liverpool at Wembley the other week and I havent forgotten you turning over Bolton in 1998 for us either.
Trophies... I think I can just about remember how good it feels.
Trophies... I think I can just about remember how good it feels.
Lol fair enough Paul.
Sorry if I wound you up, I've got alot of work to do and a stressful week coming up, so not in the best of moods.
Sorry if I wound you up, I've got alot of work to do and a stressful week coming up, so not in the best of moods.
Yes Mark, I live vicariously through teams I like now. I don't like Chelski, but wanted them to win as I figured it would do big damage to Spurs and likely lead to them losing Bale and Modric and not being able to afford the return of Ade.
The only problem, which I've just realised, is that the loss of Bale may induce them to hold onto Pienarr...
The only problem, which I've just realised, is that the loss of Bale may induce them to hold onto Pienarr...
Jim, as I mentioned on the 'Pienaar' mailbag.. he is doing the rounds with his agent. Its not his personal choice who he plays for, he is an asset that makes people money.
I wouldnt worry about Spurs.. Do we ever 'dread' playing them ? Nah..
Bale was mustard two seasons ago, now, is he still the same player before his injury ? Maybe.. Barcelona bound ? Doubt it.
I wouldnt worry about Spurs.. Do we ever 'dread' playing them ? Nah..
Bale was mustard two seasons ago, now, is he still the same player before his injury ? Maybe.. Barcelona bound ? Doubt it.
I don't think he is Barca bound either; he is far too one dimentional and they have a plethora of wide options, and will be spending their money on a central striker. The only way he would be going there is as a LB, and I reckon Italy a more likely destination.
I just wonder whether Spurs could potentially fall out of the top six. At the moment they have a great midfield which will always get them finishing higher than us. But if they lose a couple and re-invest wrongly, I think they could fall away. It's poor, but my hope of Everton progress can only come in the form of the regression of those above us until we get a buyer.
I just wonder whether Spurs could potentially fall out of the top six. At the moment they have a great midfield which will always get them finishing higher than us. But if they lose a couple and re-invest wrongly, I think they could fall away. It's poor, but my hope of Everton progress can only come in the form of the regression of those above us until we get a buyer.
Do not underestimate the damage tonights result has done to Spurs. At the turn of the year, they were very much in contention to win the Premier league. Harry the crooks interest in the England job ( and his reluctance to play Defoe much ) scuppered their season. They are now with the Reds in Europa. Did you watch the Europa semi's and final ? Not many did !
A good start and we will be in business this year. We have a good first eleven.
A good start and we will be in business this year. We have a good first eleven.
That is how boring Everton has become, you talk about Spurs and Chelsea.
Heitinga needs to maintain his form next season, if so then our defence will be good.
The biggest problem we have is lack of wingers on both sides.
I can not see us doing anything good unless we get proper wingers.
We HAD them in Pienaar and Drenthe, but they are just loans.
Jelavic needs chances to score and he will not get them unless Moyes does something about it.
Heitinga needs to maintain his form next season, if so then our defence will be good.
The biggest problem we have is lack of wingers on both sides.
I can not see us doing anything good unless we get proper wingers.
We HAD them in Pienaar and Drenthe, but they are just loans.
Jelavic needs chances to score and he will not get them unless Moyes does something about it.
Jimmy...
"Heitinga needs to maintain form next season" ? Thanks for clearing that one up.
As for us being 'boring'... well tonights result may well effect our summer transfer policy / targets massively. Non-qualifying for Champions League etc...
Anyway, enough about all that; let's talk about Big Bad Rickie Drenthe for a bit... get back to proper 'interesting' stuff again.
"Heitinga needs to maintain form next season" ? Thanks for clearing that one up.
As for us being 'boring'... well tonights result may well effect our summer transfer policy / targets massively. Non-qualifying for Champions League etc...
Anyway, enough about all that; let's talk about Big Bad Rickie Drenthe for a bit... get back to proper 'interesting' stuff again.
Stephen Kenny -
What's it got to do with football ?
Read your own article - Goals? Shots?
get it?
Metaphors for 'What if' - 'If only'
Remember your SAF scenario?
Ah well, perhaps not!
What's it got to do with football ?
Read your own article - Goals? Shots?
get it?
Metaphors for 'What if' - 'If only'
Remember your SAF scenario?
Ah well, perhaps not!
Eugene #254
I didnt catch that interview but if that is what he said doesnt it mean somthing like Fat, street crawling Hack ?
I didnt catch that interview but if that is what he said doesnt it mean somthing like Fat, street crawling Hack ?
Good post Stephen but last season's achievements were based on having Drenthe, Pienaar, Donovan and Strac and a major mindset change in Moyesy.
We dont even know yet whether Distin will be retained for next season.
If we dont get a couple of decent players in in the close season Moyesy will start the season with a face like a dead kipper and as usual that will rub off on the players and the cycle will begin all over again.
We can only hope that this year is different.
We dont even know yet whether Distin will be retained for next season.
If we dont get a couple of decent players in in the close season Moyesy will start the season with a face like a dead kipper and as usual that will rub off on the players and the cycle will begin all over again.
We can only hope that this year is different.
Jay - Distin signed a year extension a few months ago.
Mark
Did he though,i've heard talk about a new contract for ages but not that he had signed.
Did he though,i've heard talk about a new contract for ages but not that he had signed.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2117366/Sylvain-Distin-agrees-new-Everton-contract.html
An interesting question, so let's try Sir Alex's exercise, and guess whether our players will score more or less league goals next season, compared to this season's totals :-
Scoring defenders :-
Howard - 1
Baines - 4
Jagielka - 2
Heitinga - 1
Total - 8 goals by defenders
Scoring midfielders :-
Pienaar - 4
Osman- 4
Drenthe - 3
Fellaini - 3
Rodwell - 2
Cahill - 2
Areteta - 1
Gibson - 1
Gueye - 1
Total - 21 goals by midfielders/wide players
Scoring forwards :-
Jelavic - 9
Anichebe - 5
Velios - 3
Stracq - 1
/>Total - 19 goals by forwards
.....and two own goals, making 50 league goals.
Now, call me the eternal optimist, but I'll back our team next season, and whichever players come and go, to beat this total.
This optimism is largely based on Jelavic staying, but also the likes of Gibson and Fellaini increasing their tallies markedly, as well as the likes of Barkley and our mystery newcomer !!
Scoring defenders :-
Howard - 1
Baines - 4
Jagielka - 2
Heitinga - 1
Total - 8 goals by defenders
Scoring midfielders :-
Pienaar - 4
Osman- 4
Drenthe - 3
Fellaini - 3
Rodwell - 2
Cahill - 2
Areteta - 1
Gibson - 1
Gueye - 1
Total - 21 goals by midfielders/wide players
Scoring forwards :-
Jelavic - 9
Anichebe - 5
Velios - 3
Stracq - 1
/>Total - 19 goals by forwards
.....and two own goals, making 50 league goals.
Now, call me the eternal optimist, but I'll back our team next season, and whichever players come and go, to beat this total.
This optimism is largely based on Jelavic staying, but also the likes of Gibson and Fellaini increasing their tallies markedly, as well as the likes of Barkley and our mystery newcomer !!
So Jelly will out score all of our forwards on his own next season then..
Imagine if we had two clinical strikers ?
Jimmy, before you say it... Drenthe's 3 goals were the best though..
Imagine if we had two clinical strikers ?
Jimmy, before you say it... Drenthe's 3 goals were the best though..
Okay
Jelavic 20
Fellaini 8
Baines 5
Pienaar (hopefully) 4
Gibson 8
Osman 5
Rodwell 4
Jags 1
Distin 1
Heitinga 1
Victor 5
Cahill 5
That would probably put us around 4 to 5, assuming we can still keep it tight at the back. Gibson has goals in him. The last 2 might be optimistic.
Jelavic 20
Fellaini 8
Baines 5
Pienaar (hopefully) 4
Gibson 8
Osman 5
Rodwell 4
Jags 1
Distin 1
Heitinga 1
Victor 5
Cahill 5
That would probably put us around 4 to 5, assuming we can still keep it tight at the back. Gibson has goals in him. The last 2 might be optimistic.
Ian.. Fellaini 8 ? Love it.
Will Jelly take the pens ?
Will Jelly take the pens ?
I think Pienaar has more in him Ian, he's got 4 this season already despite his late arrival.It's clear we need someone to share the burden with Jelavic though. Cahill's 10 goals a season that he used to get has disappeared and we've also lost Arteta's 7 or 8. Gibson's only got 1 this season but hopefully that will increase.
Ian
Optimistic? If Anichebe even gets 5 games next season we're in trouble.
Optimistic? If Anichebe even gets 5 games next season we're in trouble.
If its possible (its not though) and we play the same formation then Sigurdsson would easy get into double figures playing off Jelavic.
Mark he scored 8 league goals in his first season. His other seasons were punctuated by injury which thankfully didn't happen this time. He is a handful and if playing in the Cahill role he should be looking for double figures really.
Yaks best season was 22, which jelavic looks capable of plundering. If it gives him the confidence let him take the pens as well.
Yaks best season was 22, which jelavic looks capable of plundering. If it gives him the confidence let him take the pens as well.
Harsh Paul - his goals to mins ratio is impressive. The new drogba?
Ian, I wasnt taking the piss.. I just said I love it. He should be un-playable from corners.. Andy Hinchcliffe type corners whipped in to him..
Ian
Please tell me that was sarcasm?
Please tell me that was sarcasm?
I like your optimism, Ian !
You've omitted Velios from your list though, and I would hope that he's good for more game time next season, and so a few more goals, possibly 6 or 7.
Your total of 68 goals is setting the bar high. Should we reach this total, and keep our "goals against" to 40, a tally of "+28" would take us into the Top Four, all things being equal (both Arsenal in 3rd and Spurs in 4th had a +25 goals difference this season).
Since we don't yet know our personnel for next season, I'd set the targets as 30 for the strikers, 20 for the midfield/wide players, and 10 for the defenders. I don't see this as too steep.
Our centre backs should be scoring more than the 3 goals they got between them this season, given our better deliveries from corners and set pieces. (Oh, for a Mountfield from 84/85 !).
Similarly, A target of 20 from a midfield hopefully comprising Fellaini, Gibson and Pienaar, supplemented by Osman, Barkley, and Cahill, should be a target within reach.
And finally, 30 should be achievable by Jelavic (hopefully on his own !), along with Velios, Anichebe (please, stop that sniggering at the back !), and our mystery newcomer !
You've omitted Velios from your list though, and I would hope that he's good for more game time next season, and so a few more goals, possibly 6 or 7.
Your total of 68 goals is setting the bar high. Should we reach this total, and keep our "goals against" to 40, a tally of "+28" would take us into the Top Four, all things being equal (both Arsenal in 3rd and Spurs in 4th had a +25 goals difference this season).
Since we don't yet know our personnel for next season, I'd set the targets as 30 for the strikers, 20 for the midfield/wide players, and 10 for the defenders. I don't see this as too steep.
Our centre backs should be scoring more than the 3 goals they got between them this season, given our better deliveries from corners and set pieces. (Oh, for a Mountfield from 84/85 !).
Similarly, A target of 20 from a midfield hopefully comprising Fellaini, Gibson and Pienaar, supplemented by Osman, Barkley, and Cahill, should be a target within reach.
And finally, 30 should be achievable by Jelavic (hopefully on his own !), along with Velios, Anichebe (please, stop that sniggering at the back !), and our mystery newcomer !
Paul - he spends a similar amount of time on his arse complaining. But that is where the similarities end unfortunately.
Drogba is probably the most complete forward I have seen. Simply unplayable. Not just saying that after last night, but earlier in his time at Chelsea. I can remember seeing him for marseille before he signed for Chelsea and thinking if we could only find the money for him. Think he played liverpool and destroyed them in uefa cup.
Drogba is probably the most complete forward I have seen. Simply unplayable. Not just saying that after last night, but earlier in his time at Chelsea. I can remember seeing him for marseille before he signed for Chelsea and thinking if we could only find the money for him. Think he played liverpool and destroyed them in uefa cup.
SAF does talk bollox sometimes, so he's a clairvoyant now!
Didn't see Veron and Forlan scoring naff all though did he?
Bet he can't see the boot coming next season if they don't make up ground on City.
Perfect english speaking, charismatic, attack minded Guardiola will have finished his sabatical by then.
Didn't see Veron and Forlan scoring naff all though did he?
Bet he can't see the boot coming next season if they don't make up ground on City.
Perfect english speaking, charismatic, attack minded Guardiola will have finished his sabatical by then.
James - i would never pin my hopes on pienaar scoring many, he never has before.
Gibson likes to have a shot which we have been crying out since gravesen. Yes he's only scored 1, and I might be getting carried away, but i think he has goals in him.
Gibson likes to have a shot which we have been crying out since gravesen. Yes he's only scored 1, and I might be getting carried away, but i think he has goals in him.
If Fellaini, Jelavic, Gibson and Heitinga stay injury free all season then we might just have a chance of improving upon 7th.
What worries me is the amount teams have around us to strengthen. RS will probably have another £30m, Spurs £20m (or more if they sell Bale or Modric) and possibly QPR, Villa, Sunderland and Newcastle will have around £15m
How much are we hoping for? £5-8m if we're lucky.
What worries me is the amount teams have around us to strengthen. RS will probably have another £30m, Spurs £20m (or more if they sell Bale or Modric) and possibly QPR, Villa, Sunderland and Newcastle will have around £15m
How much are we hoping for? £5-8m if we're lucky.
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170 Posted 19/05/2012 at 15:41:02
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