Season 2015-16
Opinion
Talking Points
Shareholder sway
I believe we all as Evertonians have a lens through which we view all things blue, the color of which is tinted by our personal history and experience with the club.
My personal involvement dates back to 1985 from afar in Ireland where I grew up. My first trip to Goodison was for a 4-0 drubbing of West Ham in our last season becoming champions in '87.
I've seen good, and I've seen bad but always feel fortunate to have experienced the former and always look to it as the standard to which our club should be held.
Ironic that a club instrumental in the formation of the Premiere league would get left in the dust on all fronts, commercially, honours wise, stadium development, fanbase etc. Our entire cast of board members through this barren era shares the blame, not least the Chairman who is our popular whipping boy. It's been a rough couple of decades but, with a new majority shareholder on board, the outlook again has shifted.
The lens through which I view our club's dealings changes its shade of blue mainly as a self protection mechanism... without hope, there is nothing. Here's how I choose to interpret the near future and as always, based little on fact and heavy on the hope...
A 49.9% stake in the club for Moshiri is no accident; neither is it, I'm guessing, an endpoint. For all their faults and failings, I believe Kenwright and Woods want their legacy to reflect a club in a better place than it was found. They've likely been paid handsomely for shares sold to date and could likely have increased said wealth with a complete sell out as was the case with 'Mr' Earl, a shareholder never displaying any interest in the club other than his personal gain potential.
The negotiations regarding the takeover I believe (based on nothing but blind hope) included benchmarks regarding the funding of a new stadium, investment in the squad and clearing current debt... with all risk assumed by the new shareholder. Until achieved, veto power remains with Kenwright's ~12% and Woods's ~ 8% shareholdings. Once achieved, the remaining shares will either be handed over as 'pre-paid' or at a rate not reflecting the higher re-evaluation.
And so for now, I believe Moshiri is calling the shots on all fronts to move the club forward with purpose knowing that he will, in short order, have near complete control of the club and reap what he sows.
For now, through my lens I read 'Nil Satis Nisi Optimum'... and it's been a while.
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Reader Comments (13)
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2 Posted 05/06/2016 at 21:24:05
A great danger of continued stagnation would exist in the event Moshiri is awaiting further share purchase prior to significant investment so as not to dilute net increase in club valuation. I don' t believe anyone, including BK has any appetite for that and so I choose to believe that he will be guaranteed the remaining BK/JW shares at current valuation, or in fact gifted should he further invest at a pre agreed level and direction.
BK will remain a spokesman and take many kudos as the club moves forward under the direction of Moshiri (and whoever else the Iranian drafts in to provide further funding) but I firmly believe (without a shred of evidence) that it is he who will be pulling all the strings.
It is hope and nothing more. But hey....isn't that what it's all about?
3 Posted 05/06/2016 at 23:14:27
4 Posted 06/06/2016 at 00:47:54
A great danger of continued stagnation would exist in the event Moshiri is awaiting further share purchase prior to significant investment so as not to dilute net increase in club valuation.
This dilution thing is a myth / red herring. He's invested in the club long term. The return comes when he sells on, based on the dollar he can get when that happens – 5, 10, 15, 20 years down the road. Added value now in terms of stadium and player investment has its own dynamic and is on a much shorter fasttrack in comparison.
I don't believe he would look at it and say... "Hmmm, I'm not investing, sanctioning, underwriting, standing collateral for anything more until I own all the shares and can be certain of all the return." – EFC share ownership just doesn't work like that.
Plus, I think you may not have seen the story earlier in the week:
Everton majority investor Farhad Moshiri already has deal in place to buy more shares
It carried a copy of the Blue Haven Holdings agreement for the Isle of Man Company registry in which there is a Put and Call option in place for the remaining shares Kenwright and Woods currently hold. Seriously, would it matter to Moshiri if he bought them for ٣,000 each or ٤,500???
And for this, he would stall on any further investment??? I really don't think so.
5 Posted 06/06/2016 at 05:31:46
I don't for one second believe anyone involved in the deal, including Moshiri, would consider it advantageous in any way to embroil in a stall situation (i.e until further shares were procured). Yet it's not an inconceivable concept. Bill & Co have managed to put themselves in a grand position without investing a dime based on the growth of Premier League popularity and TV revenues.
My point was that no-one in the deal was interested in such a possibility. However, Moshiri would likely find it highly unpalatable to potentially increase the valuation of the BK/JW's shares (short or long term) if he alone were to assume the financial risk through investing in new infrastructure and playing/coaching staff. Not a bank-breaker for him to pay a little over the odds for the remaining shares for a man of his wealth I'm sure, but men like him don't get to where they are financial through bending over with any frequency. Or maybe very calculated, but I find it hard to believe it was down to any cash flow issues on the day.
Thanks for the Echo link... it bypassed me earlier in the week while camping but in reality sheds little light on the motivation for the sale structure. I'll keep my blue tinted glasses on and await Moshiri to work his magic on the Peel group, install a quality management and football directing team, and spend a pretty penny in the transfer window.
6 Posted 06/06/2016 at 05:38:38
7 Posted 06/06/2016 at 20:37:36
8 Posted 06/06/2016 at 22:02:23
On paper, this seems plausible and a good way to structure the sale for all sides. In reality, time will tell. There have been so many false dawns under Kenwright, and it's a bit early to judge Moshiri yet. We all hope he is the knight in shining armour, but we haven't seen or heard much from him yet...
9 Posted 06/06/2016 at 22:16:39
There's more than enough to spend until a viable plan exists for a new stadium.
As for the someone else having veto power, 49.9% gives him full control already. It's impossible for the other shareholders to get the other 51.1% votes together to block him, even if they wanted to.
Moshiri is in charge now and even if he doesn't put money into the club I'd trust him to run it better than BK and his pals.
10 Posted 06/06/2016 at 00:03:03
11 Posted 07/06/2016 at 18:53:11
12 Posted 07/06/2016 at 22:34:19
My point was, should Moshiri's appointment prove as pivotal as we hope for the return of the club to its prior success and standing, that his appointment at the hands of Kenwright does not re-write to history of the latter's tenure as majority shareholder. Said appointment, however, would be considered a positive accomplishment of BK's tenure, hence:
" If Moshiri's appointment turns out to be all that we hope it will, I too will add that to my list of BK's accomplishments and legacy"
I think you've read this line interpreting 'accomplishments' in a negative light.
13 Posted 09/06/2016 at 21:03:25
There must be reason re the 49.9% has been chosen. Maybe Mr Moshiri wants more shares so as to reap more benefits if his masterplan comes to fruition.
Denis is right about the 51.1% . Here is probably a good example why. Just suppose MK owned 49.9% of this site, do you think that if we all owned a bit here and there that we could all get together and out vote him?
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1 Posted 05/06/2016 at 19:59:38
I chose the words carefully because my belief is they are acting together as one. Would Kenwright have finally found the object of his 16-years search for a fellow investor, only to squabble over 'veto power'? I think not... although the counterpoint would be his once good friend, Paul Gregg, who Kenwright soon fell out with after he became a fellow investor in Everton, when the two men's visions for the club (specifically, financing Kings Dock) diverged.
Much continues to be made of Farhad Moshiri's 49.9% share, despite some articles on here and elsewhere explaining it rationally... while others continue to suggest that Moshiri will do nothing further until he has bought out the other major shareholders, on the grounds that he won't want to 'dilute' any fiscal interest in long-term benefits from the transfer warchest, a new stadium, and what other commercial improvements he has up his sleeve.
Earl gets short shrift from most Evertonians but his ownership likely helped stabilize the Board, and probably allowed Kenwright to operate unhindered. When someone with a lot of money makes an investment largely as a favour to a friend, and then fails to participate meaningfully for the next 10 years while his investment matures nicely, and ultimately delivers a compounded annual return of 17.4% in the shape of an (estimated) 㿔.73M payout... well, yes, we're all going to be just a little jealous and judgemental.
Recent threads show patience is in short supply at the moment, despite it being the summer and close season. Not being one for Football Manager and the sense of entitlement that seems to generate – is that in part responsible for the numerous fans demanding statements from the club at every turn? I'm all for watching it play out without investing too much of my energy in the angst and anger that seems just a little bit unnecessary.
Let's give it time to develop.
ps: By my calculation, Kenwright has ~12.8% and Woods ~5.9%.