Not as bad as you might think?

The table never lies, the old maxim goes. However, the table takes a good 10 games or so to take shape and the one that does not lie is the one after 38 games. So, can we have any indication of how such a table might look? Well, yes.

Steve Ferns 16/11/2019 162comments  |  Jump to last
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The table never lies, the old maxim goes. However, the table after 3 games is unreliable and it takes a good 10 games or so to take shape. The table that does not lie is the one after 38 games. So, can we have any indication of how such a table might look? Well yes. Take last season’s results and last season’s table and then replace it with this season’s results as they happen.

Of course, there is the small matter of the three relegated and the three promoted sides. We replace 18th with top of the Championship, 19th with 2nd and 20th with the play-off winners. So, Norwich City = Cardiff City, Sheffield United = Fulham and Aston Villa = Huddersfield Town. Credit for this idea goes to John Keating, who used to publish a comparative table on this site, which I always looked at with interest as a barometer for how we were doing.

Team Pts PVSO Diff Pts SLS Pts TLS Pro Pts
Liverpool 34 28 +6 33 97 103
Manchester City 25 34 -9 35 98 89
Chelsea 26 26 0 28 72 72
Arsenal 17 23 -6 27 70 64
Manchester Utd 16 20 -4 21 66 62
Leicester City 26 18 +8 18 52 60
Tottenham 14 27 -13 30 71 58
Everton 14 12 +2 22 54 56
Wolverhampton 16 22 -6 16 57 51
Newcastle 15 10 +5 12 45 50
Crystal Palace 15 15 0 9 49 49
Bournemouth 16 14 +2 20 45 47
Watford 8 13 -5 20 50 45
West Ham 13 22 -9 12 52 43
Burnley 15 14 +1 9 40 41
Brighton 15 12 +3 15 36 39
Southampton 8 9 -1 8 39 38
Sheffield Utd 17 7 +10 8 26 36
Norwich 7 6 +1 8 34 35
Aston Villa 11 5 +6 10 16 22

Pts = current points
PVSO = Points last season versus same opposition
Diff = difference
Pts SLS = Points this Stage Last Season
Pts TLS = Total Points Last Season
Pro Pts = Projected points

So, amazingly, Everton sit 8th. We are just 2 behind Spurs in 7th, and 4 behind Leicester in 6th, and the big one is we are only 8 points off the top 8.

Let’s look at the Everton results so far:
Palace (a) 0-0
Watford (h) 1-0
Villa (a) 0-2
Wolves (h) 3-2
Bournemouth (a) 1-3
Sheff Utd (h) 0-2
Man City (h) 1-3
Burnley (a) 0-1
West Ham (h) 2-0
Brighton (a) 2-3
Spurs (h) 1-1
Southampton (a) 1-2
Total: 14 points

Last season’s results against the same opposition were:
Palace (a) 0-0
Watford (h) 2-2
Villa (a) - n/a
Wolves (h) 1-3
Bournemouth (a) 2-2
Sheff Utd (h) n/a
Man City (h) 0-2
Burnley (a) 0-1
West Ham (h) 1-3
Brighton (a) 1-0
Spurs (h) 2-6
Southampton (a) 1-2

And if you substitute Fulham in for Sheffield United, and Huddersfield Town for Aston Villa:
Fulham (h) 3-0
Huddersfield (a) 1-0
Total: 12 points

But the first thing you will notice is that we have the following teams next:
Norwich (h) – we beat Cardiff 1-0 at home last season
Leicester (a) – 2-1 win
Liverpool (a) – 0-1 loss
Chelsea (h) – 2-0 win
Arsenal (h) – 1-0 win

This means that we need to win 4 of those 5 just to maintain the projected 56 points and if we do brilliantly and win all 5 games, then we only improve by a solitary 3 points. We have a big game coming up away to Leicester; lose that, which is what the bookies will favour, and we go from being 4 behind them, to being 10 behind them as we lose our three points and they gain their three points so a six point swing in evidence. Even a creditable draw would see the projected gap between us extend from 4 points to 7.

This table evidences the collapse of Tottenham, Man Utd and Arsenal and shows what an opportunity Leicester have right now, and no doubt what an opportunity we had. There is still a long way to go; if we can replicate last season’s results, repeat some big wins, reverse some poor defeats, then we still get in the race for the top 6 or even better.

Follow @ferninho


Reader Comments (162)

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Gary Carter
1 Posted 16/11/2019 at 17:06:00
What the hell have you been smoking!?!?

Have you seen our performances this season, absolutely pitiful!!!

Ken Kneale
2 Posted 16/11/2019 at 17:11:32
You can tell it is an international break, Steve! I might feel more optimistic if our current performances were not so dire and unentertaining, if the team had some visible football identity akin to the club heritage, and if there was a general feeling of optimism that results would come. I am sorry – I just don't see that under this regime.
Joe Corgan
3 Posted 16/11/2019 at 17:13:54
“Don't piss on my leg and tell me it's raining.” – Judge Judy.

The only reason this comparison holds any water is because of all the games we lost to supposedly weaker teams last season. Brighton away, Leicester at home, Southampton, Wolves, Watford, Newcastle.

Our league position last season was saved by our results against the bigger teams at home - Arsenal, Chelsea, Man Utd. We can't expect to beat them all again.

Fact remains, we lost to Sheffield United and Aston Villa this term. That's not acceptable and our December fixture list is frightening.

Mike Allison
4 Posted 16/11/2019 at 17:15:06
I think that's kind of the point, Gary, it's an attempt to take the emotion out of analysis and be a bit more objective. Performances can give us speculative hope or despair for the possibility of future results, but that doesn't really mean much – it's just a subjective, emotional reaction. This is especially true when our performances can swing so wildly between the West Ham game and, for example, Burnley away in the game before.

I'm not sure that this way of comparing things is particularly insightful, but it is true that what's happened so far will make very little difference to our season in comparison to what is to come. A multitude of sins can be covered up if we find form and go on a run, something we did manage to do last season.

Mark Guglielmo
5 Posted 16/11/2019 at 17:25:50
Good, optimistic view of things, Steve. I said the exact same in far fewer words (this is not a dig at you, btw) in a comment on a separate thread about a week ago. Because I also prefer to look at things this way too. Same way xG says we should be 5th, or believing we're 3 pts off Europe instead of believing we're in 15th and close to relegation.

There are simple ways of looking at things, and more complex/thoughtful ways of looking at things. I, like you, try to dig deeper to illustrate that "things ain't always as bad as they seem."

Plus, you can please some of the people some of the time, but you can't please all of the people all of the time. It doesn't really matter to some until matchday 38 is played and done. When we'll be in 9th place, lol.

Paul Tran
6 Posted 16/11/2019 at 17:30:42
Thought-provoking and interesting as ever, Steve.

As a direct comparison, you're right, we're not far behind on what we did last season. It's a potential crumb of comfort in what has been a poor season.

It is perfectly possible that we can repeat the results against the 'bigger' sides last season. Randomness dictates that the talent in the squad will produce some good performances through a season.

It is also possible that we will continue with the slow, cautious, disjointed, toothless football we've seen so far this season. We win a couple, lose a few and end up mid-table when a higher spot is there for the taking.

Of course, these stats are in isolation and don't reflect neither the good run we had when there was little or no pressure at the end of last season, nor the fact that we went missing for two months of last season when there was pressure.

Interesting nonetheless. My view is that Christmas is a good point for assessing prospects for the season as a whole. As ever under Silva, there's potential for improvement without necessarily seeing where it will come from.

Mark Bruce
7 Posted 16/11/2019 at 17:36:39
We beat Burnley 5-1 last season.
Allan Board
8 Posted 16/11/2019 at 17:38:55
Indeed, the international break! Let's hope Mr Silva has put it to good use and worked with some player's he wouldn't normally associate with the 1st team.

For me, he is still right in bother and needs lots of wins to turn this round, starting against Norwich. After that, it is a slog of fixtures until new year which will define him. I just don't see even a marked improvement or plan in the 18 months he's been here, seems all a bit done off-the-cuff to me.

What worries me is his lack of understanding and merits of balance to a football team. I wish for all concerned an upturn in our fortunes but remain unconvinced.

Jay Wood
[BRZ]

9 Posted 16/11/2019 at 17:46:08
Hmmm...you (and others) have been pedalling this comparative "It's not as bad as it looks" line for a few weeks now, Steve.

On the Saints matchday thread, one poster made the claim that we are actually considerably better off this season than last after game 12.

He stated 12 months ago we were on just 9 points with a -9 goal difference. In fact, we were on 19 points - 5 up on this season - with a positive goal difference of +4 compared to -5 this season. That equates to a negative -9 goal difference compared to our opening 12 fixtures last season.

The poster further claimed the two fixture lists were similar. Steve has listed this season's opening 12 fixtures. By game 12 last season, whilst some fixtures were similar to this year's opening 12 games, we had played away to Wolves, Bournemouth, Arsenal, Leicester City, Man Utd and Chelsea. A far more challenging set of fixtures, I would suggest.

I can only conclude the poster drew his numbers from completely the wrong season and referred to two seasons ago under Koeman and Unsworth.

But back to your claims, Steve, and your 'like for like' result comparison by the opposition played. Sorry, but your attempt to gild the pig is a fallacy.

How so? Because, in making the comparison, you only serve to highlight that the results under Silva against mostly modest opposition were even WORSE last season than they have been this.

And, as others have already pointed out, we have all watched the games. We have overwhelming been abject for the most part and have not merited more points, more goals scored, or less goals conceded than we have.

There has been an upswing in results in the last five games. But like many, I feel the opportunity of the extremely benevolent opening 12 fixtures of this season has been somewhat spurned, all the more so given the poor form and results of those you mention such as Spurs and Man Utd.

James Stewart
10 Posted 16/11/2019 at 17:54:35
I'm inclined to agree with the first comment. This piece is wildly optimistic considering how poorly we have played. Wolves and West Ham games aside, we have looked utterly hopeless in pretty much every game. A win against Southampton, the worst team I have seen in a long long time, does nothing to suggest we will be pushing the top 6. Any other season and they would already have been out of sight.
Paul Kelly
11 Posted 16/11/2019 at 17:56:40
This could easily of been Nick Entwistle writing about TGT given a different frame.

If my aunt had bollocks she'd be my uncle!

IF, IF, IF!!! If we had a better manager, we'd be further up the table, all this article tells me is this – we are as shit as we were last season, and as shit as the seasons previous.

We are where we are in the table; projected finishes mean Jack Shit.

Mark Guglielmo
12 Posted 16/11/2019 at 18:04:36
Jay @9, that was me, and I replied to you in that thread to correct myself and clarify that what I meant to point out was the exact same point as Steve's above. Not the first 12 games but instead the 12 games against the same opponents (or nearly the same, replacing the relegated teams with promoted ones). We are 2 points better than last year in that regard.

Steve also IMO rightfully identified that maintaining the same "pace" will require defeating some much better competition, just as it did last season. Everyone's got opinions about our outlook, of course; that's natural. Steve's is more optimistic, as is mine. Moreso given the uptick in form beginning with the West Ham match.

Mike Gaynes
13 Posted 16/11/2019 at 18:13:19
Steve, you know I love statistics, and you clearly put in a ton of work on this, but as usual Paul T is right -- the numbers in isolation don't present a true context, particularly of pressure performance.

And Paul, I would point out that the talent in the squad is now considerably less than projected, with the long-term injuries to Gomes, Bernard and Gbamin and the unaccountable loss of form of Digne and Keane. The hopes for a "random" great performance against a top side are lower now than they were a couple of months ago.

I continue to believe that the Christmastime assessment Paul mentions will lead management to decide that the improvement required is on the touchline, and that improvement will be Brands' first order of business in the January window.

Tony Hill
14 Posted 16/11/2019 at 18:16:47
I used to do this sort of thing all the time, Steve, to find reasons why we were, in truth, better than the table indicated.

I gave it up when I realised that it never forecast the eventual points total or position.

There are a vast number of variables in any given season and across seasons, and comparing results like this is fun but the only truth is the table game to game.

Paul Birmingham
15 Posted 16/11/2019 at 18:24:28
Hard facts and the truths hurt but that's the reality check. Inconsistent and stuttering through every campaign for donkeys years.

In Martinez good first season the rot started with 0-1 loss at home to Sunderland and we had some decent results in Koeman's first season which waned like BBS first season.

To win 7 games on the bounce now would be deemed ridiculous but the mental appetite and consistency, “the right blend” has proven to be elusive at Everton in terms of the first team, for years.

Let's destroy Norwich and take confidence to Leicester.

Then we shall see how much character this squad has in the face of some very tough matches.

I really hope it could be the making of this season in terms of getting some good results with points gained and confidence and belief flowing through the squad.

Even the RS must loose to someone soon, as their luck can't carry on forever.

Let's see what next week brings..

Steve Ferns
16 Posted 16/11/2019 at 18:49:32
It seems like most of you have completely missed the point. Most of you clearly haven't read it or don't understand it. Particularly Jay Wood who misses the 4th column headed "Pts SLS" which I labelled with a key of Points this stage last season, which shows we are 8 points worse off.

Jay then makes the point that the results are "even WORSE last season than it has been this". Factually incorrect. The results are two points better off.

Better read it properly before you come on and play to the gallery, Mr Wood.

Peter Fearon
17 Posted 16/11/2019 at 19:00:22
I get it. Not much to do during the International break. The most unreliable statistics of all are the ones that predict the future. Past performance often has no bearing whatever on future performance. Look at that table. Sheffield Utd gets relegated. That is just not going to happen this season. We're more likely to go down and I don't believe that will happen either. Half-way through the season, you might begin to make guesses but, at this stage, no.
Steve Ferns
18 Posted 16/11/2019 at 19:08:41
Peter, the projected table never works for the promoted sides, because they are lumbered with a relegated side's result. If you work on the basis that they are improving on Fulham's results at a rate of 10 points per 12 games, you could argue that they improve on the final points total by 30 points (if they can keep this up) and so that would give them a points total of 56, which is 2 points better than we did last season.

Peter, this table is usually pretty realistic for Everton, by the way. Ask John Keating. Under Koeman when we dipped badly and he got sacked, we recovered in line to where we were projected to finish. Likewise with Christmas time last season.

If you look at the results Everton got under Moyes, we tended to get the same results against the same teams, at the same grounds, season after season. The patterns are often followed.

The pattern under Silva being we struggle against teams that sit back (aka play the low block) and we have more success against expansive teams (those that attack us).

The article makes it very clear how in under to keep things going we have to win 4 of the next 5 games, yet people just want to gloss over that, as if you say otherwise it's an endorsement that we are doing well. No one has said we are doing well. The article is not called, "We are really doing well, here's why". We need to improve and our last five games have shown we are improving, our next five games will confirm whether or not that really is the case.

Joe Corgan
19 Posted 16/11/2019 at 19:31:58
Steve - “It seems like most of you have completely missed the point. Most of you clearly haven't read it or don't understand it.”

It’s exactly this kind of comment that makes some of us think you’re incredibly arrogant and patronising. Not doing anything to change my opinion today.

Jay Wood
[BRZ]

20 Posted 16/11/2019 at 19:33:21
And I suggest you, Mr Ferns, pay closer attention to the very words you copy and paste and mock.

You chose to draw a like-for-like comparison of the results of this season's opening 12 fixtures with the results of the same fixtures last season (not by the calendar), substituting where necessary promoted teams for relegated teams.

By your calculations, those fixtures last season rendered 12 points. This season, they have returned 14 points.

Ergo, my comment that you quote – that Everton's results are "even WORSE last season than it has been this" is by your own maths correct and not 'factually incorrect' as you describe it.

The point you evidently miss is that (not for the first time) you again attempt to portray the poor return on those 12 fixtures this season as an improvement on last season. Mathematically, it is – by a mere two points.

By presenting the data as you have, what you have succeeded in doing is to highlight – exactly as I wrote – that Everton's performances under Silva in the same fixtures last season were even poorer than this season.

Ergo, the 'improvement' you herald is insignificant or negligible at best. The bulk of your opening post is founded largely on conditionals and hypotheticals.

Your like-for-like 12- game comparison has a modicum of validity (I say modicum because, whilst the teams and venues may be largely the same, there are far too many variables to draw serious conclusions from it as you attempt).

But I fancy that your rather fanciful analysis has more to do with bolstering your personal support of Silva, rather than offering data or objective analysis that can be seriously considered.

Paul Hewitt
21 Posted 16/11/2019 at 19:40:10
That's bigger shite than expected goals.
John G Davies
22 Posted 16/11/2019 at 19:42:09
Jay,

I think you have proved Steve's arguments in your post @ 20. You damn his arguments but then go on to prove them.

Steve Ferns
23 Posted 16/11/2019 at 19:42:27
Mr. Wood, I left all opinion out of the article. You accuse me of gilding a pig and call it fallacy. There was nothing but false in the article. But keep playing to the Gallery.
Jerome Shields
24 Posted 16/11/2019 at 19:44:12
Looking at your assessment, Steve, I think it is about right. I was surprised at the relative positions in the current league table of teams that had set up shop against us with success when they played us in the early part of the season. They are largely coming back down to earth and those we hadn't played of a similar disposition are performing similarly. Man Utd are now a foundering mid-table side and Tottenham are close to freefall. They were lucky against us at Goodison Park.

I did start to think that Everton had to beat Southampton and Norwich before they played the top half of the table side, just to get out of the relegation zone. But, having looked at the league table earlier this week, I was beginning to think more positively.

This has been confirmed by your comparative analysis. I now believe that Silva's system, through thick and thin (injuries, tactically balls up and selection issues), is largely intact. unlike comparable teams. What's more, the squad is more developed due to enforced changes. Some players are starting to come into their own.

Silva has to beat Norwich, the last team on the schedule who may set up shop, bar those Arsenal cheapskates. The play against the top-half sides will be more open and will suit the Silva System. The main problem is a young squad and consistent motivation. This is why I think Everton will do better in the Cup competitions this year, where the winning post is closer. The Premier League, for a young squad, can be drudgery, trying to get up the table season after season.

Comparatively, Everton are heading in the right direction. Silva will be still capable of erratic management and Finch Farm may seem on a break, but Everton just have that bit more potential than a lot of other teams in the Premier League, which could make all the difference at the end of this season.

Klopp won't fancy playing them anyway.

David Greenwood
25 Posted 16/11/2019 at 19:46:22
Hiya Marco, thanks for taking the time to write this article.

I'd be risking a lengthy ban if I said what I really thought about it.

One or two thoughts though, maybe you could post on how you plan to achieve the most important stat of all, namely scoring more goals than our opponents?

Or discuss our lack of motivation, organisation, and the fact we keep making the same mistakes over and over.

Jay Wood
[BRZ]

26 Posted 16/11/2019 at 20:08:06
Wriggle all you like, Steve.

The very title of your piece, the fact that you listed all 12 comparative results from both this and last season, serves to make up the bulk of your narrative.

This is padded out with a considerable number of conditionals, hypotheticals and predictions that may or may not happen.

I'm not alone in questioning your data and assumptions. But interesting that yet again you resort to condescension, not just to me, but all who challenge you as 'not having read or understood' your OP properly.

Maybe, just maybe Steve, your fellow TWers are a bit smarter than you give them credit for and are giving a very honest evaluation of your (in their eyes) very poorly constructed post.

Oh! And ps: I don't 'post to the galley'. I post when I'm moved to, not out of vanity. Nor do I resort to ad hominem argument – as is fast becoming your first strike response, Steve.

Steve Ferns
27 Posted 16/11/2019 at 20:14:42
The title is a question, not a statement. How badly are Everton doing is a matter of opinion. I left opinion out of the article and did not make any conclusions. I could have ended it after explaining the table but I didn't want it to read like it was trying to say everything is rosy, it points out that, in 5 games time, we could have 12 points wiped off the projected total.

People don't want to read an argument between us. Which what you always make it. But go on, keep arguing. I'm done.

Ken Kneale
28 Posted 16/11/2019 at 20:32:55
Steve, my answer to the question would be simple – it is every bit as bad... and much worse than it should be.

Sterile tactics, lack of identity, poor organisation, woeful football all point to a manager struggling to come to terms with his role and a squad unwilling or unable to comprehend his instructions.

Nil satis nisi optimum still applies to my view of Everton and we are light-years away, whatever projected results might suggest.

Dave Ganley
29 Posted 16/11/2019 at 20:39:07
To an extent, Steve, you're right; in the grand scheme of things, regarding the league table, we are not in bad shape. However, I feel that's only down to the fact that overall it's a poor league.

Apart from Liverpool and Man City – and perhaps Leicester and Chelsea – then there is absolutely no consistency in the league. That was how we somehow managed to finish 8th when Allardyce was in charge – even though most people would say it was one of the most turgid seasons in years.

The league position masks a lot of ills, imo. We can finish top 6, as you say, but I'm not sure that would be because we are playing great; more that the rest is garbage. Come May next year, that might change. Silva may have found the formula for consistently good displays and we may have earned European qualification; however, on current form, whoever breaks into those positions gets there by default by being less crap than the rest.

As others have said, I feel after Xmas will give is a real indication of where we are at. I do not think we are ever in real danger of relegation, there are too many rubbish teams that will be fighting those spots, but after Xmas will show whether we are going to progress or whether we will be treading water mid-table. Unless we can find some consistency in our displays, then I won't be celebrating a 7th or 8th position earned by default. I need to see progress on the pitch, a lot of progress.

The most annoying thing about us is that we know how good we can be, look at the results at the back end of last season. We also know how insipid we can be also. You just never know which team will turn up. That has to change for me to get optimistic.

League positions at the moment, whilst they don't lie about where we are at in regards to comparison with the rest, it also doesn't tell the whole story either. December is a huge month for me. Beat Liverpool, win the cup tie against a decent Leicester side, and fuck over the Mancs at Old Trafford – then I'll start getting excited. I don't want much, do I ... haha!

Jay Wood
[BRZ]

30 Posted 16/11/2019 at 20:49:03
Err... again, Steve, don't make me responsible for how you tartly chose to respond to me.

There were far more curt and brusque comments directed at you of a personal nature than my responses which, like it or not, engaged with the subject matter, not abuse of the author. You, by contrast, have not responded to me at all on the subject matter.

Rather, your riposte(s) to me are mocking and condescending, rather than measured and engaging. So quick were you to do so that you completely misread and misrepresented the very passage of mine you quoted. I'm guessing no apology will be forthcoming from you for having done so?

Stop casting yourself as the victim, Steve, and portraying me as someone who deliberately seeks you out for ridicule. We agree on some things. We disagree on others. I will determine who, how and when I will post, not you.

And when I am addressing you directly, or when you address me directly, that is exactly what is happening. The conversation is between the two of us.

I'm not the one vainly 'playing to the gallery' believing everyone else is avidly following our every word. There are plenty of tete-a-tetes on TW I scroll right past. I'm sure I'm not alone in doing that on TW.

Sadly, increasingly, you are displaying an intolerance and inability to properly engage in reasoned debate, resenting any sort of even mild challenge to your own singular views.

And that reflects on you, Steve. Not me.

Sam Hoare
31 Posted 16/11/2019 at 20:55:25
I see the point you are making Steve and it’s not surprising. For a while now it has felt evident to me (and a lot on here I think) that Silva’s counter attacking style is far more successful usually against teams that play openly. Against organised teams that sit deep we seem to often struggle.

Having said that beating the better, open teams in the league is certainly not a given and Leicester away I expect to be a very tough game indeed.

I do think our performances have been better this last month though and were it not for a ludicrous VAR against Brighton we’d have won 4 out of 5 games and be 7th in the league. Small margins. But I think there’s been some chinks of late in the last few weeks.

Mike Gaynes
32 Posted 16/11/2019 at 21:02:00
Steve:

"It seems like most of you have completely missed the point."

Love ya, man, but if it's true that we "didn't understand" your point, then you didn't get the job done in communicating it.

Jim Jennings
33 Posted 16/11/2019 at 21:12:03
Accusing someone of being factually incorrect after basing an entire article on factual inaccuracy.

We didn’t lose 1-0 at Burnley last year. We won 5-1.

Kevin Prytherch
34 Posted 16/11/2019 at 21:39:28
I think the main things this article proves (apart from the usual arguments) is that, after 12 months, Silva hasn’t learnt a thing.

I’d be amazed if we now match last years results, although I wouldn’t be surprised if we put on a series of good performances.

Steve Ferns
35 Posted 16/11/2019 at 21:39:45
Jim, the article is correct because the table is correct. However, I apologise for listing the Burnley score as 1-0 when it should be 1-5.

The correct list of results from last season, in reverse order are:
Southampton (a) 2-1 L
Tottenham (h) 2-6 L
Brighton (a) 1-0 L
West Ham (h) 1-3 L
Burnley (a) 1-5 W
man city (h) 0-2 L
Sheff United (h) 1-0 W
Bournemouth (a) 2-2 D
Wolves (h) 1-3 L
Aston Villa (a) 3-0 W
Watford (h) 2-2 D
Crystal Palace (a) 0-0 D
Which adds up to 12 points (3 wins and 3 draws).

Paul Hewitt
36 Posted 16/11/2019 at 21:45:25
Steve, I really don't understand your point?
Tony Abrahams
37 Posted 16/11/2019 at 21:46:50
Some shocking results last season as well, but these next few weeks are definitely going to be interesting. Imagine (it’s a big ask) winning at Anfield in 3 weeks? Just imagine the cloud that would lift right away!
David Greenwood
38 Posted 16/11/2019 at 21:47:44
Fortunately how badly Everton are doing is only an opinion.

Factually we're 15th but in my opinion we're first. Fair enough.

Danny Broderick
39 Posted 16/11/2019 at 21:52:14
I’m going to back Steve up a bit, but not for the same reasons that Steve has given. Simply because I also believe that things are not as bad as they seem.

My view is based on what I have seen in the last 5 games. I was always backing Silva until Burnley away - but that team selection and performance was terrible, the same errors in selection and general play, and for the first time I thought the time had maybe come to change manager again. However, since then, we have done quite well and I get the sense that the players are firmly still behind Marco.

Silva has switched from zonal marking to a hybrid of zonal and man to man. Not before time, I might add, but the players seem to prefer this way of defending. Common sense has prevailed - our record at defending set pieces could not continue unchanged.

Silva is also playing the players in form, and getting tough with those not producing. So Coleman, Keane, Schneiderlin, Sigurdsson and Kean have all been dropped lately, deservedly so in my opinion. And Sidibe, Holgate, Davies and Walcott have earnt their places in the first 11.

The results have improved. It’s only been 10 points from 5 games, but we should have taken 15 if VAR hadn’t screwed us against Brighton and Spurs.

We’ve had some dreadful luck with injuries this season so far, particularly in midfield. But if we can maintain our current good form, build some confidence and get Gbamin back after Christmas, things will be looking up. We have a winnable quarter final game in the Carabao Cup against what will hopefully be a weakened Leicester team.

Let’s just keep the faith and hope that we have found a way of playing at the minute that suits the players, like we did at the end of last season. I think this is the gist of what Steve was trying to say...

Keith Harrison
40 Posted 16/11/2019 at 21:55:56
And this will keep us out of a relegation scrap, Moise Keen pissing off etc etc because...………………??
Paul Birmingham
41 Posted 16/11/2019 at 22:00:14
Life is life, and history doesn’t lie. The facts that count, based on the set data as is the EPL, records, is the final account of the season, and seasons.

The hypothetical analysis into anything is good, interesting but at the end of the day, results and the real data those results generate is what counts.

So it’s fair to say that EFC has been unpredictable and over the last 24 years, mediocre.

We won’t to succeed and progress but our form is worse than the UK weather to predict.. until the mental approach and belief changes, we will get turned over more than we win.

We are all die hards, but there’s some basic ingredients missing, at the moment. Get consistency and go on a 8 game unbeaten run, allowing for the away and home games, and let’s see. We are lucky to go 3 games with out loosing, perhaps another, algorithm, for the theorists to build...

For now all the data sets available show Everton, has a great potential as a club, this season specific, good and improving defence, improving midfield ( last few games) a consistently erratic firing forward line.

Football is a simple game, but at the moment, we struggle to score. The point of the game.. How many shots do we take outside the box, from any angle? The RS shoot on site with in 25 yards.

I don’t honk the ethos is improving, but for now, for me the facts, are the facts, and we are where we are.

The next 2 months are massive.

We all Must stick together to see through these tough times.

Tony Hill
42 Posted 16/11/2019 at 22:22:00
Danny #39 and Paul @41, I agree. I mentioned on another thread that Southall has spoken well on Toffee TV over the last couple of days, suggesting that we are going in the right direction but are short of a few ingredients. Worth a watch for those who haven’t seen it.
Don Alexander
43 Posted 16/11/2019 at 22:26:29
Dave Ganley (#29) quite rightly points out that the Premier League, contrary to the propaganda spouted worldwide by the broadcast media in particular, is woeful in quality.

With the wealth at his disposal and quality of his squad Guardiola deserves the sack for this season's performance to date. The fact that Leicester are second and Sheff U are fifth is laughable.

So to me Steve's article is a bit "so what?" in content. We have not played very well in one single match this season. In fact we've barely played very well for even ten minutes in any game in my opinion so the stats, to me, are as mundane as our footie.

John Boswell
44 Posted 16/11/2019 at 22:29:52
Danny @39 I would add that 10 points from 15, or an average of 2 points per match over a full season would give us a record points haul of 76, thank you very much. We are not there yet but we can dream. Can we get there? I believe that we will and soon. COYB.
Ken Kneale
45 Posted 16/11/2019 at 22:38:17
Don. Our football certainly is mundane. I wonder what they do at Finch Farm all week and end up playing this dross. Stats, predictions and conjecture don’t get the crowd vibrant and vocal - Goodison needs fluent attacking football and it comes alive.
Stan Schofield
46 Posted 16/11/2019 at 23:08:37
We generally finish around 8th or thereabouts. We usually have purple patches, contrasted with spells of crap form that bring fears (from some) of relegation. But on the whole, we're midtable. And that's where we'll probably finish, midtable, as usual.

The only surprises would be if we won some silverware, finished in the top 6, or finished near the bottom. Other than that, no change.

Jay Wood
[BRZ]

47 Posted 16/11/2019 at 23:16:40
Danny @ 39.

I have already acknowledged in this thread that results have picked up in the last 5 games since beating WHU, but I'm bemused as to where you've got the 10 points in 5 games from.

After 4 games we were on 7 points (wins v Watford and Wolves, draw with Palace, defeat at Villa).

We have taken a further 8 games to accumulate another 7 points to currently sit on 14 points from 12 games.

Four consecutive defeats (Bournemouth, Blades, City and Burnley), followed by a win over WHU, loss to Brighton, draw with Spurs and win over Saints in the last four games.

Yes, together with a laborious win over a 2nd string Watford in the LC there has been a welcome upswing in results in the last 5 games.

But we have all seen the games. The teams that took points off us did not have to do anything special to do so: be disciplined, keep your shape, capitalize on the chances that WILL come your way.

Yes, Everton has played well in some games, but only sporadically, never sustained.

Our best 20 minutes this season IMO was our start against Villa. We were all over them like a rash. A sequence of cock ups of our own making which started deep in Villa's half and within seconds we're a goal down and our game goes to pieces. That doesn't happen to good teams. They simply pick up the same rhythm and retrieve the game. We don't. Ever, under Silva.

We are exactly where we deserve to be, based on performances this season.

It is an exercise in futility to make projections on future results or likely finishing positions based on actual performances this season, however the stats are compiled or presented.

Fran Mitchell
48 Posted 16/11/2019 at 23:17:50
So under Silva, what this article proves is that we were crap last season, and we have continued to be crap again this season - all in a period when the glass ceiling of the top-6 has been shattered as the likes of Utd, Arsenal, and Spurs are there for the taking.

We were woeful last season, apart from the first few games where there was that initial new-manager boost (same we had with Koeman and Martinez) we have continued to be woeful, playing largley unproductive and unentertaining football and losing to teams with budgets much smaller than ours

Our only hope is that everyone else continues to be crap and we manage to scrape together some form from somewhere unlikely.

We have lost to Villa, to Sheff Utd, to Bournemouth, to Brighton, to Burnley. no amount of spin doctoring can change that.

If Silva turns it around and we win against Liverpool, Utd, City, Chelsea, and fly up the league, Silva will deserve praise - but as things stand, that is nothing but wild fantasy based on what we have before us, and that is a man who 18 months in has basically been a bit woeful.

Don Alexander
49 Posted 16/11/2019 at 23:21:11
Ken (#45), I've asked your "FF question" many times but what increasingly alienates me from modern day football is the manner in which it's become an all-consuming "business" to those employed in and/or owning it, rather than the spine-tingling "sport" as sought by their supporters.

Yes, I know the likes of John Moores never ever took his eye off the business aspect of Everton but at least he, and other past owners (not just of Everton), dared to dream and actually invested in attractive football as their way to wealth.

To me way too many owners these days are involved just to swell their TV-boosted bank accounts, and to hell with the spectacle itself.

Jamie Crowley
50 Posted 16/11/2019 at 23:28:45
Steve -

I did indeed read the entire thing.

This point may be not what you're driving at, and honestly may have been addressed above, but I'm heading out and wanted to post, so there you have it.

My issue with this - and I have zero issue with you, the column, etc. and I think you know that but I'm stating for the record - is we are comparing this season vs. last season. Last season was not up to standard. I don't want to compare this season vs. a season finishing in 7th place. I want top four.

Thoughts on that way of looking at it? Kind of the "we're aiming too low by comparing this year vs. a previous year of 7th place."

Duncan McDine
51 Posted 16/11/2019 at 23:46:28
Say what you like about the stats on here, but it beats fish puns.
Jerome Shields
52 Posted 16/11/2019 at 23:48:38
Steve, your article is not only factually correct, but also a correct assessment of Everton in relation to other teams in the league and Everton's immediate prospects. This will be borne out by Everton's future performance in comparison to other Premier League teams' performance.
Brian Williams
53 Posted 16/11/2019 at 23:53:59
Nah, Duncan... the fish puns have the stats battered.
Derek Thomas
54 Posted 17/11/2019 at 00:37:13
Stats eh, gotta love them stats;

If the point you're trying to prove needs statistics, you need a better point.

Facts are stubborn things, statistics are pliable.

The fact is, the team is average to poor, playing poorly on average and across the average player seemingly lacking in on-field leadership. All led by a Coach with a below-average record.

At least Liverpool have an alternate league table that shows how why they should be top... We now have one that shows how we 'could' – statistically – make 8th.

Gotta love that NSNO.

Mark Guglielmo
55 Posted 17/11/2019 at 00:52:36
David @36 ahhh, perspective is everything, innit?

Factually, we're in 15th, 3 points off 5th.
Factually, we're in 15th, 6 points clear of 18th.

Which one you focus on is up to you, I s'pose.

Steve Brown
56 Posted 17/11/2019 at 02:49:00
Jay @ 20, your post is incomprehensible.

"By your calculations, those fixtures last season rendered 12 points. This season, they have returned 14 points.

Ergo, my comment that you quote – that Everton's results are "even WORSE last season than it has been this" is by your own maths correct and not 'factually incorrect' as you describe it."

Go figure.

Steve Brown
57 Posted 17/11/2019 at 02:52:00
I agree with Derek @ 54 by the way.
Jay Wood
[BRZ]

58 Posted 17/11/2019 at 02:58:34
Steve @ 56.

READ. IT. SLLLLOOOOWWWWLY.

And in context.

That way you may get it.

Phil Sammon
59 Posted 17/11/2019 at 03:06:03
Steve @56,

It's a bit wordy, Steve, but it makes sense to me.

With regards to the article, it seems a futile exercise in putting a positive spin on what has been a really disappointing start to the season.

Statistical analysis is clearly valuable; however, I feel this particular line of reasoning, with all its ifs and buts, is really quite pointless.

Silva will, rightly, be judged by what his team produces on the field. Up until now, he has fallen way short of most people's expectations, both in performance and results.

Minik Hansen
60 Posted 17/11/2019 at 03:21:14
I always remember Everton turning bad run into good around November, that was when we finished around and just below 5th under Moyes in 08/09 and few years forward. So, that's when I started to follow Everton in 08/09 and that being able to turn things around has stuck in my head.

It's a bit different story now, we turned things around in April last season. I wish something special could happen again from November on. Onwards and upwards, COYB.

Jamie Crowley
61 Posted 17/11/2019 at 04:04:59
Minik -

AH! The turn around.

Let's see where we are after playing Leicester, el poo, Chelsea, Man U, Leicester again in the League Cup, Arsenal, Burnley, New Castle, and Man City as 2020 enters the frame.

Eight games, 24 points in the league to be had, and a Cup game. If we're still in the Cup, and we've gotten 10 points from the 24 possible, I'll be thrilled.

The future is bleak.

But(!), we play well against the top teams who allow us to play more open, I hear you say.

We'll see. Let's hope. But hope, for me, is fleeting at the moment.

There's a real chance we'll be around 20 points after January 1st - and that's panic button time.

We have to beat Norwich.

Jamie Crowley
62 Posted 17/11/2019 at 04:10:25
And MInik -

If we win the majority of those games (being positive), our season will be salvaged.

December 1st we'll be sitting on the edge of a knife. And December will define our season.

Mark Guglielmo
63 Posted 17/11/2019 at 04:23:58
Minik @60, not to nitpick, friend, but depending on your definition, I would say it was our 0-3 victory away to Cardiff on Feb 26th last year that turned things around IMO. We began a 6-3-2 run with 9 clean sheets, including those great wins over Chelsea, Arsenal, United, and the tough home draw vs Liverpool. 21 points in 11 matches is European-qualifying football!

Most others @1-59: What does that have to do with this year? Not a whole lot, other than to serve as proof that the level of football we want is possible (*gasp* under Silva, no less). And I think it's fair to say we have a stronger team than that one, save a Gana-sized hole in our midfield.

Now our position may be more dire given this tough December coming up, but here's a couple of items of note my naively optimistic self is hanging a hat on:

- We had 34 pts before that 0-3 win on Feb 26th. With 14 pts now, and 24 pts available from 8 matches vs Norwich, Burnley, Brighton, Newcastle, Palace, and away to Newcastle, West Ham, Watford on the horizon (before 26 February), it isn't crazy to think we can be in a better spot (and this is assuming we don't take a single point vs Sky 6 teams).

- We get Bernard back soon, Gbamin maybe post-holiday break, and have a whole lot more gametime, crucially together, from our more dynamic pieces. A deeper, more versatile squad.

- January transfer window. No guarantees but Brands isn't an idiot, or blind.
- This is a crazy variable, but surely some of the bad bounces, bars & posts hit, VAR-influenced decisions, and cruddy injuries have to go our way at some point, don't they?

- Lastly, I maintain that the less we see of Keane, Schneiderlin, Sigurdsson and Coleman, the better off we'll be. Comparing every single important metric of the first 8 games to the last 4 games is all anyone should need to see this.

It has been said many times above that 'The table doesn't lie." If so, then most should agree that spots 4-20 are filled with mostly okay-to-bad teams, all flawed in one or more ways. Wouldn't that then indicate our chances of improving on last season are greater? Unless you believe that everyone else will improve and we won't. I don't know what to say to that other than I feel bad for you.

Let's just start with Norwich and take it from there. COYB

Jamie Crowley
64 Posted 17/11/2019 at 04:33:14
And while I'm on a roll, a quick point, netting a sequential hat trick of posts.

I submitted a very small "Talking Point" back in August / early September, pointing out this December's run of fixtures. It was titled, "Merry Christmas", or "Happy Holidays", or some such thing.

I said, back then, that this run of fixtures in December would define our season.

When I wrote the shitty little piece, I thought December would define whether or not Everton were a legitimate Top 4 contender this season.

Turns out, December will most likely now define whether or not we're mid-table or relegation candidates.

And that, for me, sums up this season thusfar, under Marco. The bar has been lowered – a lot!

Bobby Mallon
65 Posted 17/11/2019 at 07:15:00
All the stats in the world can't turn what we have been served up into a "glass half-full" season. We are a very poor team who really should be higher up the table.

I think Silva has managed the team badly up to now and only injuries have forced his hand to play the young ones.

James Hill
66 Posted 17/11/2019 at 07:34:01
The reality is, if thls was a normal season, we would be around 15 points off 5th. The fact the league is so bad this season it is glossing over the shortcomings of this manager. Frankly, I don't believe we are going to improve.
Eddie Dunn
67 Posted 17/11/2019 at 08:47:00
Steve,

I see your point in this article but much depends on the outcome of the rest (bulk) of our fixtures.

Only a couple of weeks back, I read on BBC that a firm had projected the league placing based on this season results thus far and they placed us third bottom in the relegation places. Obviously lots of this was opinion, based on our results, but still opinion.

I tend to fall in with Dave Ganley@29, who suggests (like I do in "Opportunity knocked") that apart from the current top 4 of Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Leicester, the rest are for various reasons inconsistent and may well continue to be covered by just a handful of points until late in the season.

I believe that we will simply become ensconced in the middle of this peloton and will most likely finish in midtable.

I don't see us imploding, but equally I don't see us improving to any meaningful degree, leaving us in the unfortunate position at the end of the season of pondering the future of a coach who won't have done too badly, but shows no sign of progress.

Then would the board have the guts to fire him? If not, it is surely an acceptance of mediocrity.

Ken Kneale
68 Posted 17/11/2019 at 08:55:12
Don. I guess it is called 'soul'. I agree, John Moores was a ruthless businessman but I also believe, from being around at that time, he had a genuine and deep love of Everton FC. He also wanted attractive football. Like most of us really.

It is also said the managers made a regular trip to his house to debrief a game and he had supported the club from the 1920s, so it does seem he was a genuine supporter – not just in it for business reasons.

Anthony A Hughes
69 Posted 17/11/2019 at 08:59:58
Stats can be used to say a lot of things depending on your mindset. The eyes don't lie (unless you're Don Henley). What we've been watching on the pitch has been pretty poor. Unless somebody shows me a stat at the season that show's a minimum of a top 4 finish then everything else is failure.
Tony Everan
70 Posted 17/11/2019 at 11:27:01
It is interesting to look at, especially when there is a line of logic to it.

Steve is right to draw attention to the next five games. We win 4 out of 5 of them and things will be looking up. Then we can say we are progressing.

However, the stats don't allow for injuries in critical positions and poor recruitment strategy in critical positions. These shortcomings will take their toll.

Derek Taylor
71 Posted 17/11/2019 at 12:33:51
We read much about the power of Director of Football, Marcel Brands, to decide on the timing of a change of manager and the choice of his replacement. Somehow, I suspect that the timing of any decision will always remain with the paymaster, Moshiri. Certainly he will confer with the Board's well paid 'expert' but my bet is that, for all kinds of historical reasons, Chairman Kenwright will have a bigger say.

After all, he got it right once in the appointment of Moysey so, when the names go in the hat, he will be asked to make the draw. So worry not; we are in safe hands !

Jay Wood
[BRZ]

72 Posted 17/11/2019 at 13:03:27
Mark @ 12. By pure chance I've just seen your post addressed to me. I also looked at the replies you said you made to me on a similar topic in the Saints match day thread.

I'm guessing you are on the naughty step for some reason and in moderation, as evidently those posts did not appear 'live' as you submitted them and their publication was delayed until vetted and approved by the mods. When that happens such posts tend to get overlooked and are left unseen.

Some housekeeping first. To address the similar claim you made in the other thread that the opening post in this thread also makes with regard to the opening 12 fixtures of this season, you were all over the shop with that one. Whether you based your numbers on the opening 12 calendar fixtures of last season compared to this, or a like for like comparison as Steve does in his OP, your numbers didn't add up.

That's by-the-by. What I am curious about is something you said following the WHU win. You initiated a dialogue with me in which you agreed Silva's PL record of never having won a PL with Everton in 22 games when we have conceded the first goal and a similarly poor record in the number of goals we conceded from dead ball situations reflected badly on the manager, but you also stated, as a way to excuse the five defeats in 8 games at that point, something along the lines that you 'dismiss historical statistics as they hold no bearing on the here and now'.

Help me here. How do you square that statement with what you are now stating, both in this thread and the Saints match day thread?

Eric Paul
73 Posted 17/11/2019 at 13:24:19
Historical statistics have no bearing on this season, there are too many factors like losing players, new signings, injuries, current form and when we actually play Sides we beat or lost to last season.
Phil (Kelsall) Roberts
74 Posted 17/11/2019 at 13:50:22
Steve,

As you are aware, I have been doing this analysis for the whole league for the best part of 15 years now. For Everton, my records go back to the season 83-84.

So I have no issues with what you say and was saying the same thing. And quite rightly the next 5 games will be the test.

One of my calculations from doing the whole league is that each year that on average 50% of results are the same as the previous season. And that is not just top playing bottom teams but all through the league. Weird I know. Not a correct example but like Watford always lose to Newcastle even when they are playing well.

So, that we have overall the same points as last year is not a surprise.

Ken Kneale
75 Posted 17/11/2019 at 13:55:01
Derek – is the comment about Moyes's appointment by Kenwright some humour I missed?
John Keating
77 Posted 17/11/2019 at 14:44:59
Steve,

Thanks very much for crediting me with setting up of the alternative league table. However, as much as it inflated my ego, my 5 “O”-levels, including Maths by the way, have not given me such intelligence.

Reluctantly, I have to decline credit. I was always good at history, specifically European 1789 to 1870, if ever you need any info?

Regarding my non-stats, however, I seem to remember so many posters during and after Koeman saying they didn't mind us getting beat as long as we tried and played good football. Unfortunately, under Silva, we are playing shite and getting beat! Even when we've won this season, we have been abysmal.

Had you included a customer satisfaction column, I suggest it would have been consistently zero.

Alan J Thompson
78 Posted 17/11/2019 at 15:42:45
You know, I'm not even sure that "The table never lies" is an old maxim as I don't remember it being used say, 10 years ago.

Could be my memory... or perhaps 9 years is a long time ago.

Jer Kiernan
79 Posted 17/11/2019 at 16:25:26
First off, fair play, Steve, you put a lot of work into this and has gave us something to mull over while the tedium that is the international break passes us by, Your work on this stuff is a great commodity for the site and your persistence in standing by your man is admirable although misguided, I feel

I am not a fan of stats there is so much they cannot take into account, and stats can be skewed to suit any arguement, at least 85% of the population are aware of this fact... (Sorry!!)

A couple of points:

Silva needs a miraculous run to save his job over the next 6 weeks I don't think he is capable, he is damaged goods and will be gone soon, either way is definitely not the man to lead our once great club into BMD and needs to be launched.

I have had alot of time on my hands this week so spent quite a bit of it (following on from some links on a great TW post about Roy Vernon) to look at YouTube vids of the great sides in late 60s early 70s and indeed the side I grew up with in 80s.

My conclusion is the tittle even if only for the purpose of discussion of "Not as bad as you might think?" can only come from a fan who has bore witness to the catastrophic nose dive that has been Kenwright's tenure,

I have been trying to think: Is there any sane reason why Everton could not have been as successful as Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City in Premier League era and I cannot think of any. I can, however, think of a reason why we have been so unsuccessful: the only conclusion is criminally negligent mis-managment.

I want two things to happen:

Silva Out – I don't care how much it costs, we deserve better.

Kenwright Out – Even if he has no say (which I doubt), it will be a cleansing exercise. (A scapegoat? Well, why not?)

And hopefully this will herald an era where success is demanded by all at the club — you don't deliver, you go!


Pat Kelly
80 Posted 17/11/2019 at 16:38:25
I counted three 'if's in that piece. Not the best premise for statistical forecasting.
John Keating
81 Posted 17/11/2019 at 16:54:05
Paul,
Great mate. I laughed at that. Mind you, the gallons of ale might have helped as well.

Some funny posts on threads today... must be the International break!

John Keating
82 Posted 17/11/2019 at 16:55:49
Sorry, Pat.

Definitely the ale!!!

Derek Knox
83 Posted 17/11/2019 at 17:27:35
Pat K @ 80, it was a bit iffy wasn't it? :-)
Ron Marr
84 Posted 17/11/2019 at 17:39:11
If “ifs” were fifths, we’d all be drunk.
John Pierce
85 Posted 17/11/2019 at 18:01:05
Sadly, this is just another massive dollop of mitigation for a manager who has failed to inspire players and the fanbase alike.

Just another attempt to lower expectation from Steve to help defend a manager he likes from his record, which is at best, patchy.

We may play better against more open teams but that is the minority of teams in the league and our actual record is modest. The bulk of our points should come from the also-rans, the bottom feeders. Such teams Silva repeatedly cannot overcome and, when we do, it's laboured and barely worth detaching your ‘arse' from its seat. The fact such an ‘amazing coach' cannot solve how to beat poorer sides is damning.

For me, we couldn't be farther away from my expectations.

Mark Guglielmo
86 Posted 17/11/2019 at 18:46:31
Jay @72 I can see where you might find inconsistencies in how I view the importance of historical data. I can't remember the specifics around that earlier conversation, but if memory serves at all, it was me saying that what Silva did at Watford or whatever didn't matter to me because of how different the variables were. Players, opponents, etc.

In this instance, a comparison between Silva Everton year 1 and year 2, against mostly the same opponents, with mostly the same managers/players on both sides, is when historical perspective can work.

There's a huge difference between "Everton is 1-1-10 (or whatever) in their last 12 games at Southampton" – a meaningless irrelevant trend... and "Everton is 2-0-1 against Southampton under Silva" – a relevant trend focused on a narrow, recent historical analysis.

Or do you disagree?

Eric Paul
87 Posted 17/11/2019 at 18:52:10
Mark,

Only one matters: the current season's one.

Mark Guglielmo
88 Posted 17/11/2019 at 18:58:21
Eric, matter? Yes, only the current one.

But for comparison purposes that's only trying to illustrate an idea of how optimistic/pessimistic one might be, then very recent history with most things being the same is a good barometer to include. IMO.

Jay Wood
[BRZ]

89 Posted 17/11/2019 at 19:25:20
Mark @ 86.

I'm afraid your earlier referenced contention was not about Silva's comparative Premier League record at different clubs, but his results at Everton last year compared to this.

And you did so on exactly the variables you list.

Steve's opening post and your apparent support of it is predicated on using last season's results as a 'baseline' by which to measure this year's results.

The contention that I and others challenge this analysis and its conclusions on is that the baseline results of last season were themselves poor. As such, it sets a low bar. The 2 point 'improvement' in the same/similar 12 fixtures this season do not represent a significant upswing, but rather a barely negligible one.

Ignoring the match results and evaluating the actual performances also doesn't show Silva or his team in a good light, IMO. Nor a good few others, judging by responses.

If and when I have time, I may attempt to compare the same 12 fixtures to the Koeman-Unsworth-Allardyce season of 2017-18. Or you might do so yourself and report back.

But then, according to your own stated criteria, that wouldn't be legitimate. See the slippery slope you make for yourself and others?

Mark Guglielmo
90 Posted 17/11/2019 at 19:27:50
Fair play, Jay. I really can't recall the specifics as I said, so I'm perfectly willing to take your word for it. And in doing so have fallen down that same slippery slope myself.

Seems like I've fallen victim to my optimism again, coupled with a healthy dose of grasping for straws.

Eric Paul
91 Posted 17/11/2019 at 19:35:12
Mark.

I'm only ever optimistic; I never think or predict we will get beat. What has gone before has no relevance.

Andrew Dempsey
92 Posted 17/11/2019 at 20:07:55
Steve,

Thanks for pointing out that they're going to win the League by possibly a record points tally of over 100, and we're going to finish around 7-10th, probably, as always.

Great. That's a real heart-warming, morale-boosting jolt to the system.

Paul Tran
93 Posted 17/11/2019 at 20:21:59
Do you compare the stumbling Spurs and Arsenal to last season? Do you compare the resurgent Chelsea to last season? Or mid-table Leicester to 2nd-placed Leicester? Or the Man City that keeps dropping points?

These stats need a handicap system to allow for such variables, if they're going to be anything close to accurate.

Thing is, if we were playing exciting football, scoring goals and winning games, we'd only be talking about the stats that matter. But we're not, so we're not.

Eddie Dunn
94 Posted 17/11/2019 at 20:55:11
Steve, It could be that, because you have backed Silva from the start, that you are desperately looking for the positives and ignoring as many negatives as possible. You seem to be trying to interpret the stats to back up a preconceived theory rather than look at them objectively.

Of course this will all fade into irrelevance once we reach the halfway mark and can more clearly see the patterns developing.

The worrying thing is that last season he changed the zonal system for a hybrid variant. Then (granted, without Kurt Zouma) he went back to the busted flush of zonal, and eventually reverted to another hybrid again, but after much damage was incurred.

Similar patterns emerge with his selections and his formations. It is all far too reminiscent of last season.

If the hierarchy stick with him into next season, will we see yet another attempt to play zonal?

Is he constantly being thwarted from what he wants to do by the shortcomings of his players?

Or is it his own inability to communicate his ideas to his players that is causing these shortcomings?

Ken Kneale
95 Posted 17/11/2019 at 22:06:21
Paul. You are correct. Intangibles count hugely at Everton.

Goodison Park will always support vibrant attacking football even in a poor run of results. Conversely, one dimensional over coached football played by passionless sideways moving shirt wearers will always attract ire - such ire being magnified when results also are in the negative column.

That is why, despite the last 30 years where those in charge have, brick by brick, destroyed Everton's football standing, the supporters still demand attractive football as well as winning football.

Nicholas Ryan
96 Posted 18/11/2019 at 02:36:45
If the purpose of the piece, is to say 'Things are not quite as bad as they seem', then it is probably just about right. We are currently underachieving, which is partly due to management mistakes; but also, in large part, due to absolutely wretched luck, and to being stitched up by VAR!
Jim Harrison
97 Posted 18/11/2019 at 03:43:50
Steve @18,

I have been thinking this for some time regarding our performances against defensive teams as opposed to attacking ones. For me, this was to a certain degree the same under Martinez. When teams had a go at us we countered well with Deulofeu, Barkley and Lukaku exploiting the space well. But against deeper sitting teams laboured.

This season, and the end of last to be fair, we have faired better against those who attacked. But it is damming that we have conceded so many goals against defensive teams. I suppose you can easily frame this by highlighting that those teams took their chances when they arrived and played to their strength and exploited our weakness. So it does pose the question: What are our coaches doing? If The coaches at Villa, Sheffield Utd and Burnley can see that we can't defend corners, how can ours not? And if these same coaches can see that all they need to do is sit back and try to get a few corners, why can't Silva and his team foresee that that is how they will set up?

As for it not being so bad, it's pretty damming that you even have to make this analysis given the investment and playing staff available. More often than not this season, when a team sets out to thwart us, they have succeeded. This would indicate that our strategy isn't working.

Christopher Dover
98 Posted 18/11/2019 at 11:21:25
How I long to be positive and optimistic about this Everton team, but I hope and hope, but after a good performance where we have turned the corner (again) we are brought down to earth with a rubbish display (even if we win).

It was mooted that under Silva we would concede goals but we would score a lot! the first part at time is correct without the second bit, before I get jumped on look at goal difference.

I had no preconceptions about Silva as manager so just hoped we would pick up were we left off last season, but we have not, and to me do not look like we can put a long run together to make any sort of push for top 6 let alone top 4.

I hope I am wrong as it would be best to stick with the manager if possible but, if the season is a roller coaster with no real sign of a settled pattern of play giving good results and at least fighting for a top 4 or 6 place, then I believe it is inevitable that the manager will change be it for next season.

Here is hoping, as it all will start again with another manager.

Mal van Schaick
99 Posted 18/11/2019 at 11:47:39
What I can't understand is that Moshri is investing in Everton long term with a fantastic new stadium planned, and yet he is sticking with a manager who is not delivering the high expectations of his vision for Everton.

All the stats in the world about Everton would not make us a top-six team at the moment. The stats point to a mid-table finish at best. If Moshri is content with that, then what does this say about his vision and the loyalty of the supporters?

Tony Hill
100 Posted 18/11/2019 at 14:37:53
What's this about Wash saying he had Robertson and Maguire lined up for £20M for the pair when they were at Hull; and Haaland ready at £3.4M? Who decided none of that was good business?
Kevin Prytherch
102 Posted 18/11/2019 at 14:46:26
Tony,

We can't even say it was the same people who thought a few hundred grand on Tor André Flo was a bad investment!!

If it's true, maybe Walsh wasn't as bad and we just didn't back him enough with smaller signings.

Jer Kiernan
103 Posted 18/11/2019 at 15:34:57
@Tony 100

Dont mind that, What was most important is that teary-eyed Bill-bo got his washed-up overweight prodigal son to return… sniff, sniff.

"The door will always be open, Sonny, when your washed-up overweight and not arsed, call us. Sure, not as if the club was going to be progressing anytime soon"

I saw Maguire at Sheffield Utd was obvious even then; he was going to be a decent defender.

Jay Harris
104 Posted 18/11/2019 at 15:52:36
Steve,

As usual, a lot of thought and hard work has gone into your post and your optimism is to be commended.

However, as you know I don't rate Silva nor our prospects under him and prefer to rate what I see and not statistics.

We can't score goals and we can't keep clean sheets. That is a recipe for disaster. On top of that, although we dominate some games we have only got a result by the narrowest of margins and those games have been where the opposition has had a particularly bad game. (West Ham, Saints and 10-man Spurs).

As someone who has watched Everton since 1959 and the highs and lows I can honestly say this team ranks alongside some of the worst I have seen.

Pre-season and early season was a disgrace that he should have been sacked for then IMO. However, with recent improvements, and in the interests of stability, I would give him until January to show if he can change or whether we have another Martinez on our hands.

Jay Wood
[BRZ]

105 Posted 18/11/2019 at 15:54:06
As I said to Mark @ 89, the question I and others raised about the veracity of the comparison being made in the OP was the following:

That the data this season's opening 12 fixtures were being compared to - a like-for-like against the same opposition last season, substituting in promoted teams for any relegated teams - was using data with a very low bar. That is, in 2018-19, the similar fixture set returned a record of:

P 12 W 3 D 3 L 6 F 18 A 22 Pts 12 GD -4 (the goals for column was heavily boosted by the outrider result, the 5-1 win at Burnley)

As I also said to Mark, I would be interested in how THAT record compared to the previous season of 2017-18 when we had no less than 3 managers at the helm, Koeman, Unsworth and Allardyce. I've crunched the numbers.

For easier comparison, I will list the last 3 seasons 'like-for-like' 12 fixture comparison using the same method as the OP, of substituting newly promoted clubs in the place of relegated clubs where necessary. It reads:

2017-18 - Koeman-Unsworth-Allardyce:
P 12 W 4 D 3 L 5 F 18 A 20 Pts 15 GD -2

2018-19 - Marco Silva:
P 12 W 3 D 3 L 6 F 18 A 22 Pts 12 GD -4

2019-20 - Marco Silva:
P 12 W 4 D 2 L 6 F 13 A 18 Pts 14 GD -5

As I suspected, even in the season of disarray under 3 different managers, we had a better points and goal difference return than Silva has achieved in his two seasons at Everton.

Indeed, his 1st season with us with these like-for-like fixtures returned 1 less victory, 1 more defeat and two more goals conceded when compared to the 'tri-manager' season.

His 'improvement' on last season's results in this current season is still poorer than the 2017-18 season of disarray: 1 more defeat, 5 less goals (a mere 13 goals in the 12 games this season), 1 less point, a worse negative goal difference of -5 v -2.

I think it's more than reasonable to conclude, using the exact same parameters as the OP applies, that at best, in these 12 fixtures at least, Marco Silva has not radically improved our results, but only maintained a sub-standard mediocrity. Rather, a case could be made that in his two seasons at Everton, the returns on these dozen fixtures have regressed, rather than improved at all.

Craig Walker
106 Posted 18/11/2019 at 17:30:01
I think the problem with all of us on TW is that we take a run of results, say 5 or 6 games, and base our mood on the results of a short run of games. We then make claims that "we're going down", "we're the worst team in the league" or "we're getting top 6/we can get top 4" based on how we do.

>When more games are played, our performances regress towards the mean and we finish up somewhere between 7th and 11th. This is because it is where our results put us.

Putting it into context though which a table based on previous results does not show is that we have spent hundreds of millions on players and have a billionaire owner in place that we craved for years. This isn't good enough!

When Koeman and Walsh splashed the cash, there was an article on TW asking whether Moshiri would be satisfied with another 7th placed finish given the investment. The overwhelming view of the TW contributors to that article was "No".

3 years on and we are still aiming for a 7th-place finish at best. In that context, I would file Everton under "must do better".

Stan Schofield
107 Posted 18/11/2019 at 18:15:24
Craig, that's a problem with some on TW, not all.
Derek Taylor
108 Posted 18/11/2019 at 19:15:55
Whatever the stats indicate, the chances are that we shall finish -as we usually do - around 'eighthish' this season. Along the journey we shall have good runs and bad ones, alternately hoping for 'top six' but then fearing the fatal relegation.

It is almost certainly the fate of any manager our 'football ignorant' owner chooses to remain with or change for, that Everton will continue among the also rans. Since we returned to the top flight in 1954, we have topped the table four times and won the FA Cup on a similar number of occasions. Mind you, that's something to celebrate in only 65 seasons so don't let's not be too grasping !

As I have said before, the only disappointment in being an Evertonian comes when you expect too much. Settle for eighth and a few losing trips to Wembley and you won't feel hard done to. There's a lot who'd change places, believe me !

Jay Harris
109 Posted 18/11/2019 at 20:22:52
Derek,

You forgot the European Cup-Winners' Cup.

Not many clubs have done that!!! LOL.

Derek Taylor
111 Posted 18/11/2019 at 20:46:17
Sorry again, You meant the Real Zaragoza job in '67!
Derek Taylor
112 Posted 18/11/2019 at 20:50:42
We lost that one, too!
Derek Taylor
113 Posted 18/11/2019 at 20:55:41
So you refer to '85 and Rapid Vienna. Silly me!
Steve Ferns
114 Posted 19/11/2019 at 15:45:33
Phil (Kelsall) Roberts, apologies for confusing you and wrongly giving credit to John Keating when I in fact should have given it to yourself. You were indeed the one who used to do this on a regular basis, updating it after every game.

So, I tried to write this article without any opinion whatsoever, and keeping it free from conclusion. So the reader could draw their own conclusions. The numbers are there, warts and all. I thought I had drawn attention to the fact that we had to win 4 of the next 5 games just to maintain our current trajectory on the numbers, and if we picked up just 3 points (ie a win against Norwich) then we would drop to 47 points as a projection and be where Bournemouth are.

Instead people seemed to want to imply I was trying to paint a rosy picture by cooking the books or something. The projected figure is just that, a projection and projections can change. An example is given above how we can dip a lot in just 5 games, against 4 difficult opponents where we need nothing less than a win, just to maintain the status quo.

As Phil said, the numbers are often the same. If you take Everton out of it and look at Spurs, then you can see the problem they are in. They are down 13 points on last season. That's massive. Their projection is based on them suddenly repeating all their points from last season. This is a big ask. Teams in their position usually keep haemorrhaging points, rather than recover. It would take something significant to happen for them to get more than 55 points for me. That is either a change of manager, some big signing, or a spectacular change of form.

Man Utd are just 4 points down on last season, and those 4 points are easier to recover, and shows that, whilst they are doing badly, it's not quite on a level with Spurs. The fact is though, Man Utd are only 2 points better off then Spurs.

If we look at our own recent history, you can see how we recovered in Koeman's second season:

1. Koeman 9 games, 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, 8 points.

From the same fixtures the previous season: 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, 16 points.

So Koeman had lost 8 points in 9 games.

2. Unsworth: 5 games, 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats, 7 points.

From the same fixtures the previous season: 4 wins, 1 loss, 12 points
So Unsworth lost 5 points in 5 games.

3. Allardyce: 9 wins, 7 draws, 8 defeats, 34 points
From the same fixtures the previous season: 9 wins, 6 draws, 9 defeats, 33 points.

So, Allardyce improved on Koeman's results from his decent season by a point. Which was clearly some doing, as Koeman's results showed that they were a difficult set of fixtures, whilst Koeman and Unsworth presided over 14 games and lost 13 points between them.

Silva's results last season saw him down 4 points until he hit that late purple patch and picked up a load of points to improve on the previous season by 5 points. Which some of you may see as evidence that a few good wins papered over the cracks. But didn't Moyes's ability to relentlessly beat teams below us in the league paper over the cracks that he rarely beat those teams above us in the league?

Everton's results seem to follow trends. Silva is changing some of those trends so instead of beating crap sides and losing against the big 6, like we did regularly under Moyes, we are able to beat the big sides, but struggle to beat the crap sides.

I believe that this shows a fundamental flaw for Silva's Everton. That this side just does not know how to break down a side that sits deep. That we start to commit too many men forwards, and we expose our defence. Silva had the balance between attack and defence sorted last season and we were able to keep a number of clean sheets. This season, he just cannot seem to find it, although things have looked better over the last 5 games or so.

I think that Silva only needs to modify the tactics slightly to be able to beat the likes of Sheffield Utd. We clearly moved the ball too slowly against them. Looking pedestrian at times, and definitely very predictable.

It's wrong to suggest that this is how Silva wants us to play. His hallmark is of a team that is very quick on the counter. Which is why we have had success over the decent sides. Teams who do not allow us to play on the counter and force us to shift into a possession based game are the ones causing us trouble.

I think we looked a lot better against teams who sit back when we had Iwobi in the number 10 role and that we moved the ball more quickly and so were able to get through their lines and into more dangerous positions.

Phil (Kelsall) Roberts
115 Posted 19/11/2019 at 16:22:45
Jay, going back a bit further we have the following.

2012-13 - Moyes:
P 12 W 6 D 4 L 2 F 15 A 9 Pts 22 GD 6

2013-14 - Martinez with Moyes trained Defence:
P 12 W 6 D 4 L 2 F 16 A 8 Pts 22 GD 8

2014-15 - Martinez:
P 12 W 4 D 4 L 4 F 10 A 13 Pts 16 GD -3

2015-16 - Martinez:
P 12 W 2 D 5 L 5 F 14 A 18 Pts 11 GD -4

2016-17 - Koeman:
P 12 W 6 D 3 L 3 F 17 A 6 Pts 21 GD 13

2017-18 - Koeman - Unsworth - Allardyce
P 12 W 4 D 3 L 5 F 20 A 21 Pts 15 GD -1

2018-19 - Marco Silva:
P 12 W 3 D 3 L 6 F 18 A 22 Pts 12 GD -4

2019-20 - Marco Silva:
P 12 W 4 D 2 L 6 F 13 A 18 Pts 14 GD -5

I think this proves 2 things.
Moyes was not that bad - as I put a lot of the Martinez season 1 down to the Moyes defence - as was Koeman in his first season. So did we get rid too quickly?

And secondly I really need to get a life and focus more on what I should be doing and not looking up endless statistics on Everton.

Jay Wood
[BRZ]

116 Posted 19/11/2019 at 17:12:13
Very droll, Phil! The power and influence of digital spreadsheets has a lot to answer for!

I feel (almost!) guilty for asking, but the seasons and numbers you quote: are they based on the calendar/chronological first 12 games of each season, or have you diligently tried to extrapolate a 'like-for-like' comparison as Steve's opening post does by substituting promoted-relegated sides for each season, where necessary?

Either way, some of the numbers do make interesting reading. They certainly reflect what I recalled of Moyes's time, that he got the bulk of his points against middling to lower teams.

The Koeman data is also interesting when you consider he was dismissed just 9 games into his second season with a better record than Silva, AND without having his successor already in place to slot in.

Perhaps behind the scenes things had deteriorated so much 'twixt manager and owner that his position had become the proverbial 'untenable'. Because there most certainly was a case to be made, based on his first season with us and his time at Southampton, that Koeman merited more time to turn it around than he was given, something that Silva has clearly been allowed.

Steve Ferns
117 Posted 19/11/2019 at 17:17:09
Jay, Phil's the guy behind this. He always does this, every game of every season and ToffeeWeb published it for years.

Since it disappeared I have done it myself. I find it an interesting barometer of how the season might go. It's also interesting to watch how things develop over the season.

Reason I thought it might be of interest to you is West Ham fans were referring to their own version on Twitter and Spurs fans were also referring to their own version and highlighting just how much of a crisis they were in.

Jim Harrison
118 Posted 20/11/2019 at 00:40:03
Oh man, envy time...

At Spurs, a team that, under Moyes, we were competitive with, they are replacing their best manager in modern times with one of the most successful coaches in the world. They are playing in a great, modern stadium, and even though they have issues with players contracts and morale have a squad that have been at the top end of the league and later stages of the Champions League for the past few seasons.

We are debating whether our coach, who has overseen investment that Pochettino would have loved to see, is having as bad a season as the table makes it seem, even though we are lower in the table than, well, lower than pretty much everyone!! If Spurs are having a bad season, so are Everton.

I am not one for sacking managers. Basically I am too soft, guys who are paid millions and will get their contracts largely paid up on dismissal don't need my sympathy I know, but I still don't like it!

But if there was a possibility to get him in I would be bumping Marco down the road on a flash!! He won't of course come. Real Madrid may need a new coach, even Man City if Pep decides that Manchester is too grim. Man Utd, of course, would be attractive and even Arsenal should they think it's better changing would be an option. That's without looking further afield.
The harsh reality: even with enough financial clout to compete for a European spot, Everton are still not an attractive proposition for the top guys. We will continue to debate whether Eddie Howe, or some guy doing well in Holland could come in and miraculously turn us from also rans into genuine contenders with no real evidence that they could.

Oh well.

Mark Guglielmo
119 Posted 20/11/2019 at 01:45:32
Jim, this part "We are debating whether our coach, who has overseen investment that Pochettino would have loved to see..." isn't really true.

Everton's roster is worth about £500m (and half of it is dead money), while Spurs roster is worth £1.1b. So Poch had plenty of investment despite Levy's reputation as a cheapskate. It would be fair to say a good bit of their value comes from the occasional homegrown guy like Kane, but they consistently spent more than they sold. I think Levy has that cheapskate rep due to their pre-new stadium "freeze" in 2017-18, but they forget that Pochettino had been there since 2013.

For example, Spurs spent £90m net last summer, we spent £35m. It was about the reverse the summer before because of that freeze, so net-net ballpark the same level of investing. If we go back to 2017-18, Spurs had a £20m net spend, and while Everton's was again close to £90m net spend, that was 100% Walsh & Koeman and it can easily be argued that that summer's stupid spending is why we're saddled with a bunch of crap right now.

Not everything is Silva's fault.

Jay Harris
120 Posted 20/11/2019 at 04:37:24
Jay,
I don't know it for a fact but it seems to me that Koeman wanted to run the ship and got majorly pissed off when Lukaku was let go with 2 years of his contract remaining to be replaced by Rooney on 150k a week and a spent force.

Koeman duly put his golf shoes on and went awol.

I know he wasnt everyones cup of tea but I honestly think KOeman was potentially the man to take us back to the top.

Jim Harrison
121 Posted 20/11/2019 at 08:14:53
Mark 119

You evidently have a lot of time on your hands!!

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I get it. They spent money too. But in fairness, they had the revenue through CL to justify the investment. That was achieved off the back of selling guys like verbatim, Modric and Bale over the years before at cast profit and buying more Alli’s than Bolasies.

But you are making my point overall. We are discussing the performance of a manager that has been bequeathed a squad of players which in real terms cost similar to spurs, but over a period of multiple prior seasons have been poorly scouted.
Since Moyes left, and I am only using him as a marker not as a wish to have him back, spurs have risen, whereas with the exception of bobbys first season we have fallen away from the top 6, let alone top 4
So, I for one do look on with envy. And it’s at the overall picture, rather than the isolated moment.

Firstly, we poached the wrong saints manager!!
Secondly, when they stuck faith in a young English strike he turned out to be top drawer and has been ever since. We have DCL.
They took a punt on a largely unproven manager, as did we. Guess they got the luck of the draw there.

To be fair, I understand it’s not all Silva s fault. But, given the tools he has been given, he hasn’t exactly managed to supply evidence that he can do more than string a few results together.

Gary Carter
122 Posted 20/11/2019 at 08:19:34
We should now go all out to get Pochettino, proven track record of working with youngsters and playing exciting expansive football
Eddie Dunn
123 Posted 20/11/2019 at 08:38:18
Surely the speed in which Levy has acted throws the spotlight on the pathetic, amateur actions of our own board over the last few years. Sackings of coaches without oven-ready replacements, ditto Lukaku.
Fines for illegal tap-ups and compensation for sacked managers.
Love him or loathe him Daniel Levy is nobody's fool.
Meanwhile in the land of old luvvies and clueless(in football terms) businessmen, the blind lead the blind.
We really are happy to settle for mid-table security.
Spurs are having a similar season to us but still have the Champions league. There has been no sentimentality for a guy who has performed brilliantly for 5 and a half years. No time for Poch to turn things around. Instead a big name, with a track record, available and ready to go.
Meanwhile in never-never land.
Trevor Peers
124 Posted 20/11/2019 at 08:50:05
I wonder if it even crosses Moshiri's mind to give Poch a quick call about his availability just in case Silva royally screws up this December.
In the real world it would happen today. Hesitation will fatal but then we are the masters of it.
Steve Ferns
125 Posted 20/11/2019 at 08:57:35
Wow Mourinho is in already. Looks like Levy waited on the eject button until the deal with Mourinho was done. We should have done that with koeman.
Derek Thomas
126 Posted 20/11/2019 at 09:01:25
If you don't ask...He'll never come here...Ask! make him a deal, what sort of deal? - A 'deal' deal.

Don't ask, don't get.

Dave Abrahams
127 Posted 20/11/2019 at 09:07:52
Derek (126), I think Pochettino already knew where he was going well before he was sacked, doubt it will be Everton, but wouldn’t mind him at all if it was.
Brian Harrison
128 Posted 20/11/2019 at 09:20:06
While I would love Pochettino here, I think there will be bigger clubs in for him than us. I also think he will take a few months off and re charge his batteries.

What Spurs did should be a lesson to Moshiri if you make a change make sure the new man is signed and ready to go. I have to say I think Mourhino and Levy make strange bed fellows, Levy never likes to spend money I think Pochettino spent £110 Million in 5 years. Mourhino hasnt in the past promoted many young players within the clubs he has managed, and he also likes to spend big money.

Steve Ferns
129 Posted 20/11/2019 at 09:41:21
Derek, on the subject of "don't ask, don't get", isn't this what Kenwright did with Alan Shearer?
Sam Hoare
130 Posted 20/11/2019 at 09:49:29
Eddie@123, I think you may be assuming that this move works out well for Spurs! I think it could well go the wrong way and many Spurs fans are wishing that Poch had been given more time and more money. I suspect that in 2-3 years time Poch may be riding higher than the special one but we will see.

Acting quickly does not always mean acting sensibly.

Derek Thomas
131 Posted 20/11/2019 at 09:54:48
Sam @ 130; Moshiri must be VERY sensible then.

Steve; If our Chairman said it was Wednesday, I'd check to see if it wasn't Tuesday or Thursday.

Steve Ferns
132 Posted 20/11/2019 at 10:03:44
Spurs are paying Mourinho £15m a year. I wonder how much that will rise to once they sack him! It went up to £25m a year at Man Utd. Pochettino was on half that.

Silva is meant to be on £3m a year, Koeman was reportedly on £6m a year, whilst Allardyce got more for just 6 months work!

John G Davies
133 Posted 20/11/2019 at 10:43:01
At least the fantasising about Mourinho coming to Everton will stop now. He was never coming here.
Jim Harrison
134 Posted 20/11/2019 at 10:51:54
Steve @125,

Utterly. And are we in that situation again? Debating how bad it is whilst our one-time contemporary bins one great manager for another

Tony Everan
135 Posted 20/11/2019 at 11:01:58
Horses for courses, Mourinho prefers to be in London so Tottenham will suit him, he was living out of a hotel in Manchester. Success will be harder there though than his first spell at Chelsea where there was unlimited funds.

Spurs and Levy are different, eventually there will be fractures between the manager and chairman. The chairman won't back him or sign the players he really wants as they will be overpriced and Levy won't sanction it. Mourinho will lose games and insinuate its Levy's fault. Sulk then get sacked with a payoff.

Pochettino has done wonders for them and I would be delighted if he was to become an Everton manager. At the moment though I am looking for an upsurge in form from Marco Silva. And anyway Pochetinno will have his sights set on Real Madrid or a similar Champions League club. Arsenal will be all over it too as Emery is struggling, and Poch will not have to move himself or his family.

Steve Ferns
136 Posted 20/11/2019 at 11:33:22
Tony, do you think there's been a change in the players from 2004 (when Mourinho arrived at Chelsea as the Champions League winner with Porto). When he arrived he had a team that had players like Terry and Lampard, they brought in the likes of Drogba, and then he brought Carvalho with him from Porto. These were all guys that ate out of Mourinho's hand and would follow him through the gates of hell.

At Man Utd he lacked characters like this. Cold there be a generational shift in the character of your typical Premier League player? These days they all seem more insular, with their headphones on, when you see the various fly on the wall documentaries, they have their heads down, barely talking to each other.

I don't know, but perhaps the players' are different and Mourinho cannot connect with them in the way he could with his teams in the 00's. I suppose only those in both the Man Utd and the Chelsea changing rooms could answer.

Eddie Dunn
137 Posted 20/11/2019 at 11:40:01
Sam @130, indeed, it could go wrong for Spurs. My point is that Levy acted. They decided that 25 points from the last 24 games wasn't good enough, they lined up Mourinho and replaced the coach. (Remember that Poch had threatened to leave if they won the Champions League.)

I'm not pretending that it was the right appointment but they were ruthless and didn't leave the club floundering under a reserve coach and then get in Big Sam, and then pay him a considerable leaving fee, meanwhile tapping-up Silva, when employed elsewhere and being caught in the act! (Then paying compensation.)

Andrew Hight
138 Posted 20/11/2019 at 11:50:50
Spurs board just gets jobs done. Stadium, management etc.

Our board... nowhere near.

Steve Ferns
139 Posted 20/11/2019 at 11:51:24
We don't know the full story though, Eddie. There's a lot doing the rounds on twitter, load of accounts from unnamed sources referred to in the likes of The Athletic, which all suggest problems behind the scenes. If the manager goes to war with the chairman, and then the results nose dive, the chairman will always get rid of the manager.

There seems to be a number of problems that have been caused by Levy himself. Spurs have the 6th biggest wage bill, but they're some way off the other 5. Their players are paid less as they are signed before they make their reputation and then when they demand a payrise, it's not given to them and they become unhappy.

Eriksen wants out, he was not offered a good enough contract to stay. I don't know if it's true, but Spurs fans say that Eriksen has a price tag on him that no one (ie, Real Madrid) will pay and so instead he's running down his contract and leaving for nothing. There's meant to be a similar situation with Danny Rose and Toby Alderweireld. Spurs have three players who have been mainstays of their best XI for some time now, still getting games, and looking set to leave for free in the summer, and the club unwilling to sell them on the cheap. Pochettino is reported to be very unhappy with this and wants committed players not ones with an eye on the exit door.

I'm not sure how accurate the above actually is, but it makes sense, and if so, a lot of blame for what's happened at Spurs should fall on Levy. I wonder if he knows what he's let himself in for because Mourinho is perhaps the most demanding manager a chairman could appoint.

Tony Everan
140 Posted 20/11/2019 at 12:00:14
Steve, Having Terry and Lampard was a good start, not to mention Makelele! In that summer, they signed Cech, Robben, Carvahlo and Drogba, so amazing recruitment, shopping list sorted. He found that magical combination of a tough mean defence, a tenacious and creative midfield, and players who score goals regularly. It was a feared and fearless team.

I think there has been a change in players' attitudes in the last 15 years, social media and scrutiny is responsible as they are under the spotlight 24/7.

I don't think Mourhino will be able to connect in the same way as 15 years ago with that Chelsea team, I don't think he has the same desire and motivation to prove himself as he had 15 years ago. He's lost a bit of it.

Also, he will struggle to find the players to take them to the next level as the competition and their finance is already 2 steps ahead.

Rob Halligan
141 Posted 20/11/2019 at 12:03:04
Why do people keep harping on about the Spurs board just "getting things done", such as their new stadium? Plans for Spurs' new stadium were first announced in 2008, with a planning application submitted in 2009. They encountered a few obstacles along the way, so it was not all plain sailing.

The full story can be read here, with the new stadium finally getting completed in April this year, ELEVEN years after the project was first announced!!I

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northumberland_Development_Project

Ray Roche
142 Posted 20/11/2019 at 12:08:15
Thanks, Rob, you've just written my post for me. 👍
Daniel A Johnson
143 Posted 20/11/2019 at 12:09:55
Levy vs Mourinho.

Going to be fun...…...and given Mourinhos massive wages a sacking will have to be put on hold for a few seasons.

Pochettino won nothing at Spurs and his team are just as notorious as us for bottling the big matches. His derby record is also poor. A lot of Spurs fans are happy to see him go apparently.

Pochettino wants Madrid or Man Utd, both could be in the offering for him next year.

We have no chance of getting him, it makes me laugh people think we could.

Sam Hoare
144 Posted 20/11/2019 at 12:11:31
Eddie @137, they certainly were ruthless and we have certainly dithered at times. But the question is whether either of those approaches is inherently better or worse?

Also Spurs are in a better position than us to attract managers. Often, when you have less cards, you have to wait longer to get the right choice.

Brian Harrison
145 Posted 20/11/2019 at 12:37:43
I think Pochettino was in a no-win situation, he had a few players who were unhappy either because they wanted more money or they wanted a move. But Levy keeps a tight grip on the purse strings so maybe he refused to offer these unsettled players the increase or the move they wanted. So now Spurs have a group of players who are running down their contracts.

With that scenario, Pochettino has very few options: he either plays unhappy players or leaves them out of the side but has to replace them with inferior players.

Pochettino has done a brilliant job at Spurs, getting them to Champions League qualification 4 years running as well as getting them to the final last season. And to think he did all this on spending just £110 million in 5 years!

We have spent £450 million in under 4 years and are light years away from qualifying for a Champions League spot.

Jay Wood
[BRZ]

146 Posted 20/11/2019 at 12:51:25
Well, I for one am impressed by just how proactive Spurs have been in the last decade.

You can most certainly draw parallels between ourselves and them. Under Moyes we had near parity with them, often finished above them, AND won a good few at the old Lane and at Goodison.

They had big transfer windfalls from the sales of Bale and Modric, but misspent a lot of that money also on poor signings. They clearly have a good academy with a pathway to the first team.

They went through a lot of 'should never have been hired', 'meh' and 'OK, but not quite' managers before landing Pochettino, who has proven an EXCELLENT manager.

They had to overcome considerable opposition to their stadium redevelopment, but did not compromise on capacity or quality and now they boast one of the finest stadiums in the world. It generates £800,000 per match day, never mind what it brings in daily on non-match days.

They have shown no sentiment or given any consideration that, yes, Poch got them to the Champions League final, but have been seriously underperforming in the league for pretty much all of 2019.

Poch's dismissal and Mourinho's appointment within 12 hours shows a carefully hatched succession plan in place. They have landed one of the biggest names in football management which reflects genuine ambition as to the direction they want the club to go.

Yes, Pochettino can be considered hard-done-by. In the last two seasons alone he barely recruited anyone and, most tellingly, was unable to move on players whose contracts were running down. He couldn't rejuvenate the team with the fresh blood both it and he needed.

The messages of gratitude from the players he leaves behind are clearly genuine and display in how high a regard he is/was held by them.

Spurs, our equals - even our 'lessers' in recent years - are acting like a big club.

Contrast that to Everton. Our failed stadium moves. The low number of academy players who progress and establish themselves in Everton's 1st team. The comfort blanket of 11 years of Moyes and Kenwright's glass ceiling. The appointments and sackings of Martinez, Koeman and Allardyce. The vacuum and lost season in particular of dismissing Koeman with no immediate succession plan in place.

I 'get' that where Everton is today – still to get the wheels rolling on the new stadium by submitting planning permission – effectively places us 5-10 years behind where Spurs are today. In a position to attract as high a profile manager as Mourinho.

But Spurs and Levy have constantly shown how to run a PL club and IMPROVE them. They are thinking and acting like a big club and...look what results. They are elbowing their way into that clique of big clubs.

United saw off Moyes within 12 months and replaced him with another serial winner, Van Gaal. He in turn was dismissed within hours of winning the FA Cup. Mourinho himself was sacked by United soon after landing an League Cup and Europa League double. Brendan Rodgers, who nearly led Liverpool to the promised land, was dismissed within hours after a 1-1 draw at Goodison and replaced by Klopp. Chelsea change their manager as often as they wash the kit.

Unless and until Everton starts acting like a 'Big Club' again, continue to expect the same groundhog day results, performances, league positions and trophy drought we have experienced in the entire 21st century and earlier.

Derek Thomas
147 Posted 20/11/2019 at 13:18:11
Dave @ 127; more than likely, but I can dream. He'll probably have 6 months off. But, if I was OGS at Man Utd, I'd be worried come June.

This may set off a managerial musical chairs chain reaction, albeit a slow one.

Rumours of Pep getting burn out, Bayern have a caretaker. The new guy at Arsenal not pulling up trees... bit of managerial winter of discontent all over.

Steve Ferns
148 Posted 20/11/2019 at 13:51:49
Jay, I can't see how anyone can disagree with a word you said but, bearing in mind that you "get" where Everton are at today, how would you propose we move forwards?
Jay Wood
[BRZ]

149 Posted 20/11/2019 at 14:34:28
What do we need to do to move forward?

1) Moshiri and his team are evidently being meticulous in their preparation before submitting planning permission for the new stadium. I cannot subscribe to the belief of the more sceptical and cynical that it's all a bluff. If it is, it's a very public and elaborate one which, if the stadium project doesn't go ahead, will result in an eruption of anger towards the board and the ownership.

Whether the capacity and facilities will have us competing with the likes of Spurs' £800,000 single matchday returns, I personally doubt. The stated capacity and extremely minimal VIP suites mentioned ensures that. Right there is an example of compromise in our ambitions to TRULY be a big club again.

We are potentially hamstringing ourselves before a spade goes in the ground or a brick is laid.

2) A cleansing of the Augean stable. That is, as Spurs have done, let's have a professional business structure founded on excellence at every level of the club.

The Koeman - Unsworth - Allardyce season has Kenwright's fingerprints all over it, together with a greenhorn Moshiri (in football ownership terms) being too easily swayed and panicked into doing the wrong thing.

There have been some good appointments made. There have been others more questionable that had more to do with who you know, rather than what you can do.

Bill Kenwright (and possibly others) need to be totally, but totally, removed from any and all influence at the club.

3) The Director of Football, the 1st team manager, the coaches at all levels, should be given minimal goals to achieve each season and within each quarter of a season.

Those goals need to be incrementally raised each time the previous minimal set goal is achieved. Such goals should be challenging, rather than middling, until excellence is constantly achieved. The task then becomes one of maintaining such excellence.

It should be made clear that failure to achieve said goals could result in termination of an individual's contract.

4) Similar standards should be set for academy players at all levels. This is trickier to apply because each individual at the different age group progresses at different rates. But we need to be better at identifying those players who have the potential to be Premier League footballers, rather than continuing to keep on our books players we keep giving 'just one more year' to 'make it'.

5) A thorough evaluation of transfer targets which not only takes into account a player's ability, but possibly more importantly, a player's character and personality, how much nark and hunger they have to succeed, how they integrate into the group.

6) Key in all this, because he gets the main billing, the headline act, is the manager. He can do a lot to determine his own longevity at the club by at least demonstrating there is a plan, a rationale, behind his tactics and selections.

If the results and performances consistently show serious failings that are simply not being addressed, then it is only right and proper his position comes under review.

There is a fine balance, as with academy players, as to when to 'persist and hope' with a manager and when to 'let go' for the benefit of all.

Everton is not getting it right in many, MANY aspects.

** I accept all credit cards and PayPal payments for consulting fees.

Steve Ferns
150 Posted 20/11/2019 at 14:45:48
Sensible stuff Jay. But how do we know they don’t do more or less what you suggest?

From Walsh’s ramblings, it seemed like chaos on his watch, and so as Director or Football he should shoulder the blame as the buck should stop with him transfer wise and he should have put his foot down.

I’d like to think that Brands has addressed that, even if there is a couple of mistakes.

As for Kenwright, surely it’s time to retire. I’d also like to see more specialists on the board with more impressive credentials.

Mark Guglielmo
151 Posted 20/11/2019 at 14:59:47
Jim @121 being unemployed will do that to you!

Regardless of the value of the club, or what was spent, all of Spurs spending since 2013 was under Pochettino. All of Everton's spending since 2013 was under Martinez, Koeman, Allardyce, and now Silva. And pre-2018, with Walsh.

It's like we're asking Silva to bake a cake with the various ingredients that 3 separate chefs left behind. It's a totally different situation and IMO unfair to expect Silva (and Brands) to turn it around and clean up the mess in 16 months. To me, the spending since they took over has been far more consistent and is clearly showing that they have a plan when it comes to player recruitment.

John @133 and been replaced by fantasizing that Pochettino would even dream of coming here. Mind-boggling.

Cheers.

Steve Ferns
152 Posted 20/11/2019 at 15:10:58
Mark, I think Pochettino needs a long holiday though. He certainly needs to recharge his batteries. He seems to throw himself into his work 100%.

I would suggest Alisher Usmanov, of course nothing to do with Everton FC, allow Mauricio use of his yacht for a few months. If some Russian mobsters happen to board the boat and force him to sign a contract to manage us, then that's nothing to do with us either.

Derek Taylor
153 Posted 20/11/2019 at 15:13:40
I have every confidence that, given the time Silva will turn things round and safely deliver a top-half place come May. He may even manage to steer us to a cup semi-final!

Modest as it seems, that should be enough to see our man given the chance to complete his contract as well as make up his mind about the efficacy of the likes of Kean, Tosun and Calvert-Lewin.

Please, please, don't waste keystrokes on expressing ambitions so far beyond the demands of the Everton establishment and the abilities of our forever 'promising' players. We are Everton!

Mark Guglielmo
154 Posted 20/11/2019 at 15:38:49
Steve, I'm pretty sure Poch is in no rush. He just got a nice £12.5m check for being canned. I'd be on a yacht too!

I'm still putting even money on him going to Bayern (in the summer). I guess depending on how serious they decide to go after ten Hag. Poch would be favored by them, or at least has been for some time.

Jay Wood
[BRZ]

155 Posted 20/11/2019 at 15:41:39
In my reply to your Steve I acknowledge that some of the changes I suggest have been implemented, albeit not 'all in' as Spurs did, for example, with their stadium rebuild.

Because of that vision and determination to make it such an iconical stadium, not built with 'yesterday' or even 'today' in mind, but all the 'tomorrows' to come, Spurs are now better placed than any other PL club with regard to their single match day profits, including United.

That constant drip-drip-drip will eventually, ultimately, give them a huge competitive edge and advantage to compete at the very, VERY top worldwide, never mind London, the UK or Europe.

Will our proposed modest stadium do that?

As to the footballing side, I very much hope Brands, now 18 months into the job, has had the chance to fully evaluate the 'Everton Way' at Finch Farm and whether it is fit for purpose in the modern era. I further hope he has the backing of the majority to overhaul the system as he deems fit and necessary.

One overriding problem remains in all this. As long as you have a Suzerain ruling over 'his' city state influencing decisions and policies acting as a brake on any reform, it will take us a lot longer to achieve the objective of genuinely being a big club again.

Joe McMahon
156 Posted 20/11/2019 at 20:00:23
Steve, the performances have been dire, as bad as it gets. It reminds me of the 2005-06 season, we finish the season below Bolton, Blackburn and Wigan with a –15 goal difference.
Dave Ganley
157 Posted 21/11/2019 at 07:26:11
Yes, Jay, very sensible stuff although you would wonder why, if indeed any of your points have been implemented by the club, it's taken so long to do so. Excellence obviously went out of fashion with Kenwright years ago. Not sure how the current board can sit there and watch the rubbish we get served up week after week and go "Yeah that's okay, I think we're heading in the right direction". The mind boggles.

Excellence comes from the top and we have been sadly lacking in that department for many years.

Tony Abrahams
158 Posted 21/11/2019 at 07:34:28
Pochettino might be a very good manager, Mark, but is he a winner though? Bayern Munich exist to win, whereas the Spurs manager thought he'd done his job the minute they beat Ajax, last May. He's done a very good job at Spurs, but you don't need any fingers or thumbs to count how much he's won though.

Jim Harrison
159 Posted 21/11/2019 at 07:44:29
Mark 151

I hear ya. I actively avoid ToffeeWeb now I don't have a job so I don't get too wound up!!

I just read today that Spurs under Pochettino are 17th in terms of net spend over the period of his tenure. A great return.

And of course Silva has some players he doesn't want. But really, given what he has at his disposal, he should be putting in better results overall.

I am giving him the benefit of the doubt at present, as the injuries have taken a toll. No manager can be expected to achieve their best without an entire first choice midfield. But that doesn't justify an inability to grasp the issue at corners, or not to see that, when playing against defensive teams, his go-to tactics are ineffective.

Brian Harrison
160 Posted 21/11/2019 at 08:26:28
Jay

Some interesting points the only one I would take issue with is were you say the DOF should be set a minimal goal. On what criteria would you use to measure his success or not as the case may be. I think someone used a good analogy in the role of the DOF and the manager, a bit like making a cake the DOF buys ingredients that the manager doesnt want. so whose fault is it if the cake turns out nothing like the manager wanted.

I think compairing our proposed stadium with Spurs stadium is a good one, although Levy had a vision of the ground being used by the NFL which will bring in massive revenue. But being in London it is a natural draw for the NFL teams. But we definitely should have been more ambitious.

Paul Tran
161 Posted 21/11/2019 at 13:40:58
Pochettino over-achieved and raised expectations that couldn't be sustained with his transfer budget. Barring their CL exploits, I thought they looked stale last season, with players running down their contracts and others casting their eyes at clubs who pay better. That carried on into this season, with the inevitable behind the scenes issues. Once the momentum's gone, it's hard to get it back again.

Hats off to Levy for his decisiveness. I'm looking forward to seeing him work with Mourinho, should be interesting.

Steve Ferns
162 Posted 21/11/2019 at 21:47:24
Jay, @155, the reason I asked the question was that you seemed to be going in a direction that you have never gone before. You then gave a very sensible answer.

Usually when people talk about Everton acting like a big club or having ambition, it means the fan wants us to spend a load of money and take a very unrealistic and improbable approach.

So I did appreciate the sensible reply.

Don Alexander
163 Posted 21/11/2019 at 22:23:22
Jay (#155), eloquently put, assuming you allude to Kenwright on the "suzerainty" point.

And Paul (#161), I don't admire Levy as you do in your post. Pochettino has had to do what he's done without the massive spends other Champions League contending clubs provide to their management so I have huge respect for him.

Maureen being appointed will be a test for Levy, the Special One already having seemingly stated Kane must stay whatever the cost (and we all know Levy's attitude to mega-obscene salaries to players, as do the players of course, and their grasping agents).

So, Kane may well now demand double the money (at least), shatter Levy's master-plan and force Spurs to pay most of their stars similarly. Interesting times ahead for Spurs I'd say.

I envy them.

And, all the while, Joe Lewis, the cockney multi-billionaire actual owner of Spurs, watches on from a far-away tax-haven, letting Levy play Lewis's game whilst making everyone but himself accountable for their perceived shortcomings.

Sound familiar?

David Pearl
164 Posted 23/11/2019 at 17:03:08
YES it fycking is!!!
Denis Richardson
165 Posted 23/11/2019 at 20:15:55
What does the analysis say now after adding today’s result?

Come New Year’s Day we’ll likely be bottom 3!

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