Fan Article

DNP at Mike’s request: Our Catch-22 and Our HS2

How is Bramley-Moore Dock going to be funded alongside the need to build a squad capable of challenging for the Champions League over the next few years?

One definition of a Catch-22: A dilemma or difficult circumstance from which there is no escape because of mutually conflicting or dependent conditions.

Our Catch-22: How does Everton FC find the money to build a stadium costing more than £500million AND buy and pay the wages of the players needed to re-establish the club as one of the Big Five?

Many people seem to think the money is coming from Farhad Moshiri. I think not.

At the club's annual shareholders meeting last January, I asked:

“What is the most recent estimate of the cost of building a stadium at Bramley-Moore Dock?”

“What proportion of the cost of building a stadium at Bramley-Moore will fall on the club? And how many years will it take before the club was free of this cost?”

Alexander Ryazantsev, chief finance and commercial officer, said "the latest guidance" was "in excess of £500million".

He said, "the majority of that, if not all, will be funded by the club - and then that will be funded by a combination of debt and equity".

And the club was, "talking about 25, 30-year repayment period when it comes to the debt portion of that amount".

Debt: The club will be going further into debt.

Equity: As I understand it, new shares in the club are being issued. The money paid for those shares goes to the stadium project. And those new shares are being bought by Moshiri and whoever else he may be in partnership with.

To my knowledge, and again I'm happy to be corrected, we don't know whether the stadium will mainly be funded by debt, or mainly by equity. The answer will have an impact further down the line.

But there still appears to be a widespread assumption that Moshiri is either paying for the stadium, or sorting it out so that everything will work out fine.

However, this might not work out OK. Moshiri is not Santa Claus. He is a businessman. I believe the prospect of building a new stadium then selling his majority stake in the club was what brought him to Everton. A perfectly reasonable decision for a businessman to make. And it might be that the whole Bramley-Moore project goes swimmingly well. I really do hope so. But, I am not convinced.

How could it go wrong? One way would be if we were relegated and lost those huge payments from the Premier League broadcasting deals needed to make those debt repayments. I mentioned this in May 2018 in a Toffeeweb article, Scapegoat Sam and Santa Moshiri. It makes me think of the question that Mrs Merton might have put to Moshiri last week: "So what first attracted you to the former Newcastle manager Rafa Benitez, who kept that club up on a shoestring?"

Another way might be if we fail to fill the new stadium. I think this is a distinct possibility once the "new stadium novelty" wears off, certainly if our performances on the pitch are no better than we have seen thus far in the 21st century.

I won't say much about my concerns that the stadium is situated, for exit purposes, in a cul-de-sac. Nor the "transport plan" which seems to bank on many making a 30-minute walk to the city centre after games, in all weathers (see Touchside at Bramley-Moore Dock, ToffeeWeb, July 2019). Nor the traditional Saturday 3pm habit going out the window now that kick-off times show more concern for the armchair fan than the actual match-goer. Nor whether match-goers will return post-Covid to their previous lifestyles. Nor whether enough people on Merseyside have the steady jobs to pay for the increased ticket prices that I suspect will be charged at Bramley-Moore. Nor whether the £500million-plus construction bill may have risen further due to the reported, widespread shortage of building materials.

Let's gloss over those points. My biggest concern is what I would call the erosion of our fanbase. It's not as big as it used to be. Not on Merseyside. And this problem will slowly get worse, until we start winning trophies again.

The explanation? We're in a two-club city. There is this other club which over the last 50 years has won, by my count, 36 trophies to our five. And, in the last half-century, this other club, only to be referred to as “toc”, has had far more heroes, poster boys and dramatic moments of glory. As a result, toc has become a much more fashionable club and more and more kids have chosen to pin their allegiance to toc rather than us. That is uncomfortable reading, but we have to deal with it.

Fifty years of comparative decline has its consequences. The saving grace is that a far higher proportion of young blues attend games than young followers of toc, which has helped to mask this trend.

As for outside Merseyside, how many people have this century chosen to support Everton? And, wherever you may go, hardly anyone anywhere aged under 30 can remember us winning a trophy.

At the other end of the age spectrum, there are a lot more Evertonians. They grew up in a city that was half blue, or more than half. They were spellbound by the Golden Vision, rejoiced in the Ball, Kendall, Harvey era and partied in Rotterdam. But it is inevitable that over the coming decade, the 2020s, a fair few of these will depart to the great Bullens Road in the sky, or find themselves too infirm or arthritic to walk along the dock road to and from Bramley-Moore. Arguably, we're similar to a nation with more deaths than births.

Yes, there is a waiting list for season tickets. But unless there is success on the pitch within five years of moving to Bramley-Moore, I don't see it being full to the rafters. Our demographics are against it.

Bramley Moore is our HS2. The official line is that High Speed 2 is great, that the planned rail track from London to the North will bring great benefits. But critics point out that it is hellishly expensive and that money could be better spent elsewhere, improving rail links between the West and East coasts of Northern England. However, so much planning has been done, so much money spent already, that it is going ahead anyway.

Similarly, we have been told that Bramley-Moore will be great and bring benefits. But, I suggest, it is hellishly expensive

and that money could be better spent elsewhere, in our case on the playing squad and on redeveloping Goodison Park, section by section, which could be done, if the will was there.

But with £40million having been spent already on Bramley Moore without a brick being laid, I assume that so much planning has been done, so much money spent already, that it is going ahead anyway.

The club's accounts for the year ending June 30, 2020, stated: "This brings the total cumulative cost incurred on the Bramley-Moore Dock project to £39.3million." One year on, that figure will be even higher now.

Admittedly, there is a big difference between public enthusiasm for HS2 and Bramley Moore. The English public appears lukewarm, if not non-plussed, about HS2. In contrast, there is very strong support among Evertonians for a move to Bramley-Moore.

But, from conversations I have had in recent years, I get the impression that a big part of the attraction of Bramley-Moore for many Blues is one-upmanship, to get one over on supporters of toc. To have a stadium on the banks of the Royal Blue Mersey that makes theirs look second-rate in comparison. For me, this is not a good enough reason. We should be wanting simply whatever will work best for Everton.

For me, what would have been best is a stadium at Kings Dock. We should be about to start our 13th or 14th season there. Due to grants available at the time, not least from the European Union, the club only had to contribute £30million. It didn't. Now the club has spent £40million or more just on preparatory work for Bramley Moore.

But we are where we are. Onwards Evertonians. I retain optimism. The situation is recoverable. Which takes me to the appointment of Benitez.

For years, I have believed that the manager of Everton has the most difficult job in world football. He has a fanbase that not only demands trophies, but also entertaining football, and all on a budget half the size of that enjoyed by some rival managers. What's more, the pressure to succeed is intensified tenfold by the greater success of toc. Sometimes, I think it was never Ronald Koeman nor Carlo Ancelloti we needed. It was that mind-bending magician, Uri Geller.

But now we've gone from Hollywood managers to a Hollyoaks manager. The appointment of Benitez has given me some optimism. I did like the idea of appointing the French Cloughie or the Brighton intellectual, but it would have taken them a year just to "get" Everton. And I certainly don't think Koeman, Marco Silva nor Ancelloti realised on arrival the size of the task ahead of them.

But after setting up home in the area 17 years ago, since when he has spent ten years as a manager in the Premier League at three different clubs, I think Benitez "gets" the Evertonian mindset and that he has a very shrewd idea about what is needed to get the team firing on MORE cylinders. Despite the sardonic Mrs Merton reference earlier, I believe Benitez could bring us our first trophy in a long time. Preferably, it would be in Istanbul of all places. Where the Champions League final is to be held in 2023. A tall order, I know. Right now, I'd settle for the League Cup next February. This club is in desperate need of a trophy.

I will certainly trust Benitez's judgment in making value-for-money signings. But if the team is to fire on ALL cylinders, he will need to be able to make some big money signings too. And there, my fellow Blues, is that Catch-22 outlined at the start.

What those in charge of Everton have to do, more than ever before, is strike the right balance between money for stadium, money for players and money for repaying debt. Very fine judgments. Not difficult to get wrong.

Simply moving into Bramley-Moore will not in itself flick a switch that takes us straight into a glorious new era. A misplaced back pass will look just as bad there as it does at Goodison.

In the meantime, I suggest it is more important than ever that we get behind the players, whoever is picked, and support the manager. We'll be at L4 4EL for a few more years yet. And it would be wonderful if Goodison returned as soon as possible to being a place where Evertonians had heroes rather than scapegoats.

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